BITCOIN LONG UNTIL $70,000.00Hi Everyone!
I think BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is on the way to touch the $70,000 region again.
BULLUSD trade ideas
MORNING STAR or BULLISH HARAMI Here I have price action calling the shots. Despite what anyone says including me. We can all sound like liars because here, the charts don’t lie.
123 numbers is a 3 pattern morning star. The first and second candle qualify. If the second candle moves down a little, the morning start can be more bullish but if it remains within price range from the time it closes, then it’s less bullish but will still dominate.
4 and 5 is a two candle pattern. It qualifies as a bullish harami. Second candle must remain green to qualify.
In fact second candle must remain green or become green before the daily close closes to qualify for either patterns.
There is a possibility for both patterns to qualify at the same time.
Wicks qualify bodies qualify. Is this the time for entry, I’d wait until 5pm pt. Check your time zones.
$BTC - Bull Run BeginningsWe have been in a massive accumulation phase since early this year, right now we could be laying the foundation for the next major leg up.
On the 1hr time frame we are green, 2hr also just flipped and the 3 will follow shortly if this base holds.
We are getting to the point where if this thing is going to happen at all , it's going to have to be starting soon.
The stage is set! What do you think?
Bitcoin ATL in the next cycleLet's see how this goes, I hope everyone will collect enough money to go All in BTC, ETH then.
BTC Downwards moveI expect BTCUSD to be bearish for tomorrow's price action.
DIsclaimer; This is not financial, trading advice.
For educational purposes only.
BTCUSD afternoon updateBull and bear counts for BTCUSD. Kind of busy chart, I apologize.
From 64802 to 69487, it looks like price has formed a contracting diagonal.
Today's low tagged .618 fib drawn from 69487 to 64802.
Bearish count (red) has an ending diagonal, completing wave c of (y).
Neutral count (and probably least likely, in yellow) has price looking for a wave ((5)).
Bullish count (green) has leading diagonal (1), wave (2) complete, wave (3) looking north of 74139, and lots of room/extensions to run.
If diagonal ends up being correct analysis, bulls must stay above 64802 and get above key resistance of 69487. Break below 64802 opens up bearish scenario. Line in sand key support 58867, break below which would likely be impulsive and confirm bearish count.
BTC Wave AnalysisBase on Wave Analysis BTC is going to pump to 91K to complete the last impulse wave
bitcoinhi guys
this is a long term idea for BTC
by fib bitcoin always reached 2.272
is it possible we see bitcoin price at $461k in the next few years?
BTC, Batman enters the show.There is a Batman, ( double top ), Head and shoulders pattern developing nicely on the 6 hr chart.
I am looking for a further pull back to fill in the cape of batman or the arms of the head and shoulders.
Not much stands in the way of the pull back once the 40 sma is defeated.
Trade with a plan, Stick to the plan, Get a plan if you don't have one.
BTC 4H Double VWAP XABCDBTC 4H Double VWAP XABCD
65.000$ will be an almost-perfect entry to seek a long entry.
XABCD Movement is on point - BUT RSI needs to show another rejection from the oversold level, whenever we will hit it.
BITCOIN BULLISH TO $77,000 (UPDATE)People buying BTC at the top are in for a nasty surprise when price drops & corrects itself. I'm patiently still waiting for a good correction & fill of any imbalance zone. Still waiting on;
⭕️Minor Wave II Correction Of Major Wave 2. Tap into Supply Zone.
Bitcoin to 120,000 ?Bitcoin to 120,000 ? Weekly Cup & Handle pattern + Above the average line 150 + After a fourth crossing event. Only an idea and not a recommendation for trading!
Buy btc at 67K to 68.250Previous day low has been taken.
BOS on 5/15m
FVG on 5/15m
Target: 4h FVG
Check 1m tf when hitting 15m FVG for extra conformation.
10/22 Triple divergence is playing out. How deep?Overview:
The AMEX:SPY closed down by only 0.16%, despite opening lower than Friday’s close. During the second trading hour, the index dropped 0.5% but managed to recover the losses throughout the day. Only a few AMEX:SPY stocks ended in the green, with Nvidia gaining 4.14%. Despite this minor pullback, the index has seen six consecutive weeks of growth, and one red weekly candle wouldn't derail a bull run that has gained 23% since the start of the year.
The tech-heavy NASDAQ:QQQ also closed in the green, up 0.19%, thanks to Nvidia’s boost.
The U.S. Leading Indicator Index (LEI) fell by 0.5% month-over-month to 99 in September, a steeper decline than the expected -0.3% and more significant than the -0.2% drop in August, according to The Conference Board’s report on Monday. From March through September 2024, the LEI dropped 2.6%, exceeding the 2.2% decline in the previous six-month period.
"Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board. "Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers' outlook for future business conditions was tepid."
This index has been decreasing since March 2022, and Monday’s reading officially places it below its lowest point during the COVID-19 period in April 2020. However, the rate of decline appears to be slowing.
Meanwhile, companies are still reporting better-than-expected earnings. Some well-known names reporting today include GE Aerospace (Boeing's engine supplier), Philip Morris, Verizon, General Motors, 3M, Enphase, and Invesco (owners of the QQQ ETF).
The CME Watch Tool now shows an 11.1% chance of no rate cut on November 7th, up from last week’s 9.3%.
While BTC dropped 2.40% on Monday, BlackRock still bought $329 million worth of BTC ETFs. It’s almost amusing to think that BlackRock could be acting as someone’s exit liquidity. The firm now owns 362,192 bitcoins, valued at $23.169 billion.
BTC TA:
W: Unfortunately for the bulls, BTC closed last week at $69k, which is below the highs of the last two bullish waves in late March and early June.
D: Monday ended with a 2.40% correction—much needed after last week's strong rally. A timely release of pressure increases the likelihood of the bull run continuing. An important level to maintain is $66.9k, as it’s the point of control for this recent rally starting from October 10th. The next support levels are $65.8k and the key yearly support at $62.7k. Breaking below $62.7k would invalidate the current bullish wave. On the bearish side, Monday’s candle engulfed the previous five trading days (including the weekend). Before the pullback, the RSI hit 70.
4h: As we spotted and wrote about in our previous letter - the 4-hour chart showed MACD, CVD, and RSI divergences, with three consecutive declining peaks as the price continued climbing. The correction began on Sunday evening, and it may take more than a day to fully play out. The key level to hold now is $66.8k—if it breaks, the price may fall to the daily level of $65.8k. So far, it’s holding.
1h: The 1-hour chart looks bullish, as the $66.9k level is holding, with some bullish MACD and RSI divergence showing.
Alts Relative to BTC: ETH, SOL, and NEAR have not declined as much as BTC. However, SUI has dropped more significantly by 5%, and TAO by 9%. APT is unexpectedly pumping, while DOGE is up by 27.30%. Seems like alts are diverging from BTC correction. At least the aren't collapsing 7 - 10%, which was the case in the past with BTC falling by 2.4%.
Bull Case: BTC could be correcting slightly before resuming the bull run. If a recession is avoided, Trump wins the election, and rates are cut, the outlook remains positive.
Bear Case: BTC may have reached an old resistance level without breaking it, confirming it as a solid resistance, and initiating a deeper correction.
Fear and Greed Index: The index is back to Neutral at 57, down from the Greed territory of 60 over the weekend.
BTC/USDT Analysis - 4H TimeframeBTC/USDT Analysis - 4H Timeframe
Author: Rhino aka Bear ( Crypto Rado )
Date: 10/22/2024
🔹 Overview:
Bitcoin has reached the anticipated upper trendline, facing rejection at $69,800. A double bearish divergence on the 4H timeframe signals that this impulsive move has likely peaked. The price briefly broke above the previous high but quickly dropped by $3,000, landing on the monthly pivot point and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, leading to a small bounce.
🔹 Current Expectation:
I anticipate a retest of the $68,000–$68,500 zone before the downtrend continues toward $65,500–$65,000. This next key support area is reinforced by the 0.382 Fibonacci level, S1 pivot, and significant price action. The Simple Moving Average is also moving toward this zone, making it a confluence area of interest.
So far, the price has made an impulsive five-wave move downward, followed by a corrective ABC structure. Waves A and B appear complete, and we are likely in wave C, heading for the $68,000–$68,500 zone. If this zone fails, we may see a move towards $48,000, $44,000, or even $40,000. However, it's too early to confirm a full bearish reversal at this point.
🔹 Key Levels:🔹
Resistance Zone: $68,000–$68,500
TP 1: $65,500–$65,000
TP 2: $62.9 - 61.3k
Invalidation: 69.6k
Next Potential Targets (Bearish): $48,000 / $44,000 / $40,000
🚨 Disclaimer:🚨
⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and assess the risks before trading.⚠️
BTC Correction Over?In yesterday’s analysis, I said that I was looking for a retest of $66,550 as support. We got that almost to the penny. Nothing alarming here at all, just a bit of retracement after a big move to the upside.
BTC to ATHI think DXY will make one last spike up and then it’s in for a nice drop. That could also benefit cryptocurrencies, especially BTC. So, I’m expecting one more low to be taken out, which could theoretically go up to 60K (but I’m leaning more towards a max of 64,500). I’ll gradually start picking up longs and aim for ATH :)
Bitcoin forming bullish parabola?Connecting the recent lows on the daily, we see that buyers are not allowing price to dip to lower trend lines, forming the beginnings of a parabola, let's see if it holds. To the mooooon!
Bullish tripple bottom?So in the purple zone i marked what i believe to be not confirmed bullish tripple bottom.
For the confirmation i will wait for it to come to atleast a 67,899.
If that wont work out there could be potrentional sell in under 66,798 when it will break out of the box zone.
BTC going down!After meeting heavy resistance at 68 - 69k,
BTC is on a downtrend.
And this makes my prediction correct for now , but this does not mean that the bull movement is completely over.
I still expect some price actions around 66.5k which is the price of the upper (resistance) line of the downtrend - which now works as the support level.
And there's a good chance this might change the tide and start the bullish movement again.
Or the price might just pierce through the level, which would then make the bearish prediction stronger.
My humble piece of advice here would be:
React, not predict.
#Bitcoin Wave Count and Primary Bullish Move Targets#Bitcoin overall #Elliottwave count of the primary bullish move since late November 2022.
With price breaking above the bearish trendline that had kept it lower since March 12th, we can confidently say that the complex consolidation under wave ④ of iii has ended, and we're now in the impulsive wave ⑤ of iii.
Looking more closely at wave ⑤, we can see that waves (1) and (2) are complete, and we're currently in wave (3) of ⑤.
Based on Fibonacci tools, I believe wave ⑤ could target a range between 75,000 and 97,000. However, the key takeaway here is not just the targets but that we're in a bullish impulsive wave ⑤ and how we can take advantage of this using our strategies.
Another bullish confluence on the chart is the formation of a reverse Head and Shoulders pattern, visible at the end of the bearish corrective wave ④ and the start of wave ⑤.
BITCOIN When the 4 year Cycles do the talking..It's been some time since we last used the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) but the timing is just right to bring you an update, only 2 weeks before the U.S. Presidential Elections with the market ahead on an imminent bullish break-out.
This time we look into how the price was trading on this date every 4 years. As you know BTC is trading roughly within 4 year Cycles that keep a high degree of symmetry and tend to repeat a lot of dynamics each time.
Right now, towards the end of October (2024), the price is trading within the Mean MM (black trend-line) and the 1st SD above (grey trend-line). It has already started rising off the Mean MM. Based on the 4-year Cycle Theory, it is no surprise then that the price was within the exact same range in October 2020, October 2016 and October 2012. The degree of symmetry is remarkable and is yet again showcased by this indicator.
We can also see that by this time every 4 years, the price had already started rising off the Mean MM, just as it is doing now. With the green Rectangles we display the date range between these 4-year intervals and the peak of the Bull Cycle. For October 2012 it took 58 weeks (406 days) until it topped, October 2016 was 60 weeks (420 days) while October 2020 was 55 days (385 days). So time-wise the Cycle tends to peak roughly the same period.
As a result, if we take the minimum scenario of 55 weeks, we can expect the Cycle to top by mid November 2025. As far as targets are concerned, the first two Cycles hit (and broke) the 3 SD above (red trend-line), while the last one the 2 SD above (orange trend-line). Again assuming a 'worst case scenario' hitting 'just' the 2 SD trend-line, we can set a Target Range of 190k - 250k, depending on whether the price hits it halfway through the 55 week range or towards its end. Nevertheless, an exciting rally appears to be starting for Bitcoin.
So what do you think? Is this October MMB fractal about to break to a parabolic rally? And if so, will it hit the orange trend-line? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Trade Idea for BTCUSDMy sentiment about BTCUSD is firmly bullish.
I plan to utilize probabilities to strategically position myself into long positions. This approach allows me to leverage statistical analysis and market behavior to enhance my trading decisions.
Several key fundamentals are currently influencing the market in a direction that aligns with my bullish bias on BTCUSD:
Institutional Adoption: There has been a notable increase in institutional interest in Bitcoin, with major firms investing heavily. This trend suggests growing confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term asset.
Economic Uncertainty: Global economic conditions remain volatile, leading many investors to seek alternative assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
Technological Advancements: Innovations in blockchain technology and increased acceptance of cryptocurrencies for transactions are contributing to a more robust ecosystem, enhancing Bitcoin's utility and attractiveness.
Conclusion
In summary, my bullish stance on BTCUSD is supported by both statistical probabilities and current global fundamentals. By strategically using probabilities, I aim to position myself advantageously in the market. This method not only enhances my trading strategy but also aligns with broader economic trends that favor the growth of Bitcoin.
Let’s dive into the top-down analysis together! Your thoughts and feedback are always welcome!
1D:
Hourly Timeframes:
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