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Apple Inc. (AAPL): Testing Key Levels Amidst Pullback🔥 LucanInvestor’s Strategy: 🩸 Long: Above $246.43, targeting $250 and $254. Strong volume is required for bullish confirmation. 🩸 Short: Below $242.00, aiming for $236 and $230. Weakening MACD indicates bearish pressure may persist. 🔥 LucanInvestor’s Commands: 🩸 Resistance: $246.43. Breaking above this level may restore upward momentum. 🩸 Support: $242.00. Losing this level could lead to a retest of lower levels. Apple is navigating a pullback after recent gains, with traders closely monitoring the key levels. MACD shows declining momentum, signaling caution for bulls. 👑 "In the art of trading, precision is the key to mastery." — LucanInvestor
NASDAQ:AAPL
by LucanInvestor
Strategy testing: is it enough? Hey everyone, I wanted to touch on a topic that I don’t think is discussed nearly enough here, and that topic is backtesting. How reliable is it really? Most people would assume that backtest results are solid. You get a backtest with a 74% success rate, and you think you've won the lottery! However, there are some grey areas when it comes to backtesting. In fact, backtesting should only be the first step in multiple phases one should go through to ensure a strategy is indeed profitable. First, let’s dispel some myths about accuracy vs. profitability. High accuracy = high profitability? This is false. A high accuracy does not always mean profitability. The considerations that must go into this fact are: - At what point are you taking profits? If a buy signal occurs and you take profits at about 0.50 cents from the buy signal, then this is not a feasible strategy or one with a great risk-reward (R:R) ratio. - How long are you holding? If the strategy has high accuracy but requires you to hold for 2 to 3 years before seeing profits, then this defeats the purpose of most trading strategies, as this is simply an investment strategy, which, in itself, is a solid approach. These are two common issues I see in strategies that lead to misleading “accuracy” results. Low accuracy = not profitable. This is false. Low accuracy strategies tend to be the best strategies because the focus of these strategies is usually on holding for major targets, with strict stop-loss parameters. You will be profitable infrequently, but when you win, you will win big. A real-life example of this would be Michael Burry’s successful short. While his successful short became the story of books and movies, his multiple failed attempts at making major shorts before and after this trade have been overshadowed by his success in the 2008 bubble short. Thus, Michael Burry has a low accuracy but a high profitability factor. How can we better decide on successful strategies? This is the question that any day or swing trader should be asking: How do we validate the efficacy or efficiency of our strategy? This is where things get somewhat complicated. The emphasis I see in the trading community is on just general accuracy and profit factor. I also see some discussions on Sharpe ratios. I think it’s important to understand these concepts before we continue. Accuracy: Accuracy is simply the number of successful trades over the total number of trades, multiplied by 100. So, 49 successful trades out of 50 total trades would equal an accuracy of 98%. Profit factor: Profit factor is the total gross profits divided by the total gross losses over the course of the strategy testing period. For example, if over the last 4 weeks, you made $800 and lost $250, your profit factor would be 800/250 = 3.2. Sharpe Ratio: Sharpe ratios are slightly more complex. This ratio attempts to evaluate the risk-adjusted return of an investment/portfolio or trading strategy. It works by taking the average return of the strategy/portfolio or investment and subtracting the risk-free rate. The risk-free rate can be something like government bills or a simple high-interest savings rate. Then, you take the remaining value and divide it by the standard deviation of the investment/portfolio or strategy profits. For example, let’s say your strategy generally yields 10%. The risk-free rate of a high-interest savings account is 2%. The standard deviation of your profit strategy is around 15% (this would be calculated by taking all of your returns from your strategy, both positive and negative, and calculating the standard deviation). In this case, the Sharpe ratio would equal 0.53. An excellent Sharpe ratio is >2. A Sharpe ratio <2 but >1 is considered good. The average Sharpe ratio for most returns is <1 and is more realistic. TradingView’s strategy tester actually provides you with a calculation of the Sharpe ratio. Simply apply a strategy to your chart and head over to the “performance summary” tab: In general, you should treat any Sharpe ratio >1 with extreme skepticism. So, are these approaches enough to determine how successful a strategy will be? No, absolutely not. Even with a good Sharpe ratio, an okay accuracy, and a high profit factor, you cannot be guaranteed that the strategy will be successful. Why not? This is a complex question, and I think it’s best answered from a biostatistics approach (mostly because this is my field, haha). In biostatistics and epidemiology, we have something that can be closely linked to stocks. It's called a “web of causation.” What this means is there are numerous factors that influence a person’s health, and it is very challenging to control and account for all these factors. Take a make-believe person, Mrs. Jones and her family. At first glance, Mrs. Jones and her family may appear well-dressed, affluent, well-groomed, and healthy. Now, let’s say we want to trade based on Mrs. and Mr. Jones’ likelihood of living to 80 years old (we are playing the insurance actuary’s job now, haha). The only information we have on this family is that they appear affluent, show no signs of illness, and they are pleasant people. Believe it or not, this is about all the information we have at a single point in time on a stock. That’s all we can really know at the time of trade execution. We can speculate further, but we can’t really know all of the impacting factors on the stock. Now, let’s say we buy calls on the Jones family living to 80 based on what we observe. Now, 12 years have passed, and Mr. Jones ends up ill and in the hospital. Two months later, he sadly passes away. Then, 1.5 years after that, Mrs. Jones sadly passes away from cancer. Your position is now worthless. What happened? We ignored and were not able to view the full picture. The Jones family had a lower socioeconomic status. Mr. Jones liked to drink over 4 alcoholic drinks per day. They lived in an older home that did not have sufficient insulation and protection from the elements. They also lived beneath a power grid distribution zone and right next to a high EMF emitting cellphone tower that was constructed right after the family moved in 11 years ago. Mrs. Jones’ family had all died 2 years ago, before the age of 68 from cancer, and Mr. Jones’ family had a history of health issues and alcoholism. We can visualize a web of causation through this image: Some of these things we could have found out, namely the socioeconomic status and Mr. Jones’ history of alcoholism. However, most of these things did not appear until midway through our bet. For example, at the time, we did not know that they would build a high EMF emitting tower right next to their house, and Mrs. Jones’ family did not die until 8 years into our position. So how could we have known? The truth is, we couldn’t have. It’s impossible! We could have done better due diligence by obtaining the current and most recent family history and socioeconomic situation. We could have obtained information on the location and house the family was living in. But most of these things happened along the way, and it would have been impossible to foresee them. This is the reality of stock trading. The issue with stocks is that it is impossible to know what the future holds for a company or the economy. The stock market has a multifaceted web of causations, such as the current economic status of a country, global affairs, war, presidency, a company’s overall financial stability, unexpected lawsuits, unexpected losses, bankruptcies, interest rates, and other economic disasters. Here’s what a web of causation could look like for the stock market: So, what can we do? Here are some tips for ensuring that we capture the most accurate picture we can of a strategy. We’ll start with some easy, quick-to-implement approaches and then go into some more advanced, higher-level approaches. Easier approaches: - Ensure you utilize a larger lookback period. TradingView has the ability to do what is called “deep backtesting.” This allows you to backtest a strategy from many weeks, months, and years in the past. Make use of this function! One of the biggest issues with strategy backtesting is focusing on a limited lookback period. This introduces bias and omits a vast amount of data. - Analyze the statistics presented in TradingView’s backtester performance summary. Be very skeptical of Sharpe ratios >= 1.2 and profit factors >= 1.5. Make sure you look at the entries and exits of the strategy, and the average trade length and profit: - Warning signs to look for are an abnormally long period of time in a trade (be sure it’s proportionate to the timeframe you are on—for example, 150 bars on the daily is almost a year!) and frequent trades with marginal profits. Advanced Approaches: Most quantitative traders and financial institutions apply something called forward testing. Forward testing includes a number of statistical tests that can determine whether the results of the backtest are statistically significant. For example, applying a simple Chi-Square test can determine whether there is a statistically significant difference between the number of winning trades and losing trades. A t-test can be applied to a bond/fixed interest rate account performance and your strategy to compare whether there is a statistically significant difference between the profits yielded by your strategy vs. a safe investment or high-interest savings position. These can be accomplished in Python, R, Excel, or even Pine Script (using my SPTS library, which gives you the ability to calculate a paired and one-tailed t-test right within Pine Script). The details on how to do this are higher level and beyond the scope of this article, but I will continue the series on backtesting/forward testing into the future with some examples of how one can forward test within Pine Script and Excel. Another method is by omitting future data points, testing the strategy's success over a specified period, and then executing it on the future points to see if the results compare. If you notice a marked difference between the previous period and the forward period, this should signal alarm bells. For example: The above chart shows the difference that can happen due to changing sentiments and economic circumstances, and that a strategy can be inconsistent and contingent on external factors beyond our knowledge or control. Conclusion And that’s it! This will mark my first educational article of 2025! Hopefully, you learned something and take this to apply to your trading. Be careful, and as always, safe trades, everyone!
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by Steversteves
15
Apple Inc. (AAPL): Testing the Waters Amid Pullbacks🔥 LucanInvestor’s Strategy: 🩸 Long: Above $247.33, targeting $255 and $260. Recovery requires strong buying volume. 🩸 Short: Below $242.05, targeting $235 and $230. Further weakness could unfold under selling pressure. 🔥 LucanInvestor’s Commands: 🩸 Resistance: $247.33. Breaking this level could reestablish bullish sentiment. 🩸 Support: $242.05. A breach here risks extending the downtrend. Apple faces a decisive moment with its MACD declining into negative territory. Volume will play a critical role in determining the next move. 👑 "The strongest build their futures in moments of challenge." — LucanInvestor
NASDAQ:AAPL
by LucanInvestor
Apple May Be OversoldApple surged to a new record high around Christmas, and traders may see an opportunity in its latest pullback. The first pattern on today’s chart is the weekly low from December 9 at $241.75. The iPhone maker came within $0.07 of that price last Thursday before bouncing. Is support in place above the peaks last July and October? Next, that level was near a 50 percent retracement of the rally that began in early November. Holding that spot may confirm AAPL’s direction is bullish. Third, stochastics have dipped to an oversold condition. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by TradeStation
AAPL: Bullish Trend Intact, Poised to Reach 300AAPL: Bullish Trend Intact, Poised to Reach 300 From our previous analysis, AAPL reached our second target and then moved down to the support zone of the pattern once again. AAPL is set to release its earnings report on January 30, 2025, which could be a catalyst for the market to push it up again. MoffettNathanson downgraded AAPL from a Neutral Rating to a Sell Rating, reducing the price target from $202 to $188. However, considering the financial statements, this downgrade seems unwarranted. We should expect AAPL to rise further. You may watch the video for further details! Thank you!
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by KlejdiCuni
1
Apple Poised to Reach $300 - Fundamental and Technical AnalysisApple Poised to Reach 300 - Fundamental and Technical Analysis Today, we will analyze Apple from a technical and partially financial perspective. Reviewing all quarters of Apple's performance, we consistently see positive results. Apple is a company whose stock has been steadily growing. Apple has reported its highest income in the first quarter of every year. Technical Analysis: Each time the price has broken out of the pattern, a new upward wave was created, reaching a new all-time high. This time, Apple has just broken out of a large accumulation phase that lasted about 140 days. It appears that a new upward wave is beginning, potentially driving Apple to reach 300. You can watch the video for further details! Thank you:)
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by KlejdiCuni
4
AAPL - Short Term Bear - Swing Trade NASDAQ:AAPL Here's the details of my trade Short on AAPL.... Daily Chart: - QQE Signal Short - Divergence on the RSI - Cross down on the MACD 4hr Chart: - QQE Signal Short - Strong Divergence on the RSI - Cross down on the MACD Fundamental Support: - PE Ratio overvalued at 42, historic PE ratio range 12-28 excl Covid 2020 - Buffet has cut Berkshire Hathaways stake in Apple by 60% - 2 consecutive years of flat YoY revenue, with declines in Iphone, Wearables, Ipad, Mac offset by YoY growth in Services - Flat YoY Revenue in USA, Asia Pac, and Japan, with declines in Greater China - 2 consecutive years of YoY Net Income decline, EPS benefit from share buybacks of 1B since 2022 - Operating Margin improvement, however primarily driven by product mix (decline of core products and growth of services business) Recent Developments & News - Next significant economic data is ADP employment report Wed Jan 8th and Unemployment Rate Fri Jan 10th - A lower or higher employment figure than forecast could move the market and is a potential risk to the short position if employment figures are positive - However, inadvertently, higher employment figures will reduce the likelihood of FED rate cuts, offsetting some of the upside potential Target: - Previous ATH at 236 ~-5.5% from current price - Stop: A break above $260 - Possible profit taking at 50 day moving average near $237-$238 range - Previous declines ranged from 8-15 days to reach short term lows, estimating similar timeframe with a possible break of support line, retest, and further decline Risks: - The rollout of Apple Intelligence sparks strong Christmas sales and upgrade cycle for Iphone 16 - Investor optimism for Apple Intelligence drives continued buying in AAPL - A bounce off support and continued move higher Overall: AAPL has rolled out Apple Intelligence in several major markets with some features still coming soon. It would be an understatement to say that the development, features, and rollout have be clumsy at best. Not only has the rollout and announcements been underwhelming, but Apple looks to be playing catchup with technology competitors have already well established in the market. Apple continues to be a loved brand worldwide, and there's no denying the brand loyalty is still strong, however lagging technology, premium prices on their products, high PE/valuation with flat to declining revenue and profitability. Until Apple can either reclaim it's technological advantage by becoming a leader again in the market, or reposition it's product offering and pricing to drive demand, it's difficult fundamentally see why the stock is worth the PE with so many other companies in market with new innovation and growth potential comparatively. This isn't to suggest Apple will collapse, but a correction technically and fundamentally is warranted near term with broader economic risks and technological missed expectations that could warrant lower prices. My Position: 5 Put Options $250 Strike, Current Price $252.20 Expiration Friday Jan 10th Average Price is $2.00 a contract Investment $1000 Target $10.00-$16.00 (8-14:1 Profit Loss Ratio) Stop $1.00 Potential Loss -$500 Potential Gain $4000-$7000
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by jaytmarquardt
2
Apple appears to be in a bullish trend for the near future.We observe a similar pattern to what occurred previously with APPL. Additionally, the Dynamic RSI indicator suggests that Apple could rise further. Therefore, we are setting the buy zone at the blue level. For Apple, two take profit levels have been set, meaning the strategy involves selling 50% at the first take profit level. Should the price return to the buy zone, we plan to reinvest the 50% for the second take profit.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by larsnicog
AAPL Hits a Critical Level! Prepare for Key Moves for Jan. 6Technical Analysis (AAPL - 1H Chart): 1. Price Action: * AAPL is trading near the $243 range, showing signs of consolidation after a significant decline. * The stock is testing critical support at $241, with immediate resistance at $247.5. 2. Trend Lines: * Downward sloping trendline indicates ongoing bearish pressure. * Break above $247.5 could signal a reversal, while a breakdown below $241 might trigger further downside. 3. Indicators: * MACD: Slight bullish crossover, suggesting potential momentum shift to the upside. * RSI: Neutral territory, indicating no immediate overbought or oversold conditions. Gamma Exposure (GEX) and Options Analysis: 1. Key GEX Levels: * Call Walls: * $247.5 (24.19%) - Resistance where significant call activity is concentrated. * $252.5 (8.01%) - Next resistance zone. * Put Walls: * $241 (Highest negative NET GEX / PUT Support) - Strong support zone. * $237.5 (-11.48%) - Key downside level if $241 breaks. 2. IVR and Options Data: * IVR: 38.2 (Moderate implied volatility rank). * Put/Call Ratio: Higher PUT interest indicates cautious sentiment among traders. Scenarios for Tomorrow: 1. Bullish Case: * Break above $247.5 could trigger a rally toward $252.5. * Entry at $247.5 with a target of $252.5, stop-loss at $244. 2. Bearish Case: * Breakdown below $241 could lead to $237.5 or lower. * Entry at $241 with a target of $237.5, stop-loss at $243. Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before trading.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by BullBearInsights
$AAPL long setting upThis is the weekly for $AAPL. It is in an uptrend, and I have drawn a Fibonacci retracement frame around recent minor swing low and swing high. An area I would look to get long for a 4-8 week tactical trade would be the Breakout-pullback area indicated by the green rectangle. The stop loss would be beneath the swing low where the retracement was drawn from and the take profit would be at the swing high. As a confluence, the breakout-pullback area is at the 50% retracement area. So a dip below 50% would represent price being in discount for an eventual move back to the swing high.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by mbgd99sd88
Apple (AAPL) Buy Signal - Bounce from Green Box Apple is approaching a key buy zone after completing a corrective wave (C). This could be a strong opportunity to enter for a potential move back up. 💡 Key Details: Buy Zone: $233.68 - $240.10 Stop-Loss: Below $233.68 🎯 Targets: Target 1: $250 Target 2: $260 🚨 What to Watch: - Look for price action confirmation in the buy zone before entering. - Use the stop-loss to manage risk if the setup doesn’t play out. - This setup aligns with Fibonacci retracements and wave analysis, indicating a potential reversal soon.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by MrStockWhale
Apple (AAPL): Testing Key Support—What’s Next? NASDAQ:AAPL 🔥 LucanInvestor’s Commands: 🩸 Resistance: $246.00. A breakout targets $250 and $256, signaling potential recovery. 🩸 Support: $243.00. A breakdown exposes $240 and $235 as critical levels for correction. 🔥 LucanInvestor’s Strategy: 🩸 Long: Above $246.00, aiming for $250 and $256. Look for increased volume to sustain momentum. 🩸 Short: Below $243.00, targeting $240 and $235. Bears could take control if the price breaks this level. 🩸 Apple’s MACD is showing bearish momentum, but the stock remains above its 200 EMA, suggesting a possible rebound. Traders should watch for volume confirmation at these levels to determine the next direction. Year-to-date performance remains slightly negative (-2.24%), but the stock has room to recover if resistance is broken. 👑 "Success lies in identifying the turning points—prepare for both opportunities and risks." — LucanInvestor
NASDAQ:AAPL
by LucanInvestor
AAPL Fib Wedge Gann Square FixedNASDAQ:AAPL Made this Fib Wedge that shows promising touch points when getting to those highs. What stood out to me more was the areas of consolidation consistently showed inside the Gann Square Fixed. Something to watch is this new area that Apple can go to marked with a "Star" Watch for the "Star" Following the past 3 Fibs inside the Gann Square Fixed, a trend we can see is that you touch the high in the range and bounce off into consolidation. I expect to get this range around the "Star" Once that high in the range is met we can consolidation. I see this consolidation being brief and breaking out of that range soon due to volatility like the previous zone, making new highs. Make sure the chart looks like the chart on X post before you clicked on it. Posted the chart on X. Comment what you think about this chart. Comment any tips or suggestions. NASDAQ:AAPL
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by ChartValue