NVDA Breakout , US Stock130 above trendline breakout possible
if sustain 135/140 min to test before earning
after earning will review level again
NVDA trade ideas
NVDA: The market anticipates Nvidia's Q2 earnings reportInvestors and analysts are keenly focused on Nvidia Corporation as it prepares to release its Q2 earnings this Wednesday. Nvidia, a powerhouse in the artificial intelligence industry, has been at the forefront of producing cutting-edge chips for data centres, which is crucial for developing AI models. The company's products are in high demand, serving a diverse customer base from tech behemoths like Microsoft to innovative startups like OpenAI.
For the second quarter, Nvidia's management has projected a staggering 28 billion USD in total revenue, following a robust Q1 performance during which the company garnered 26 billion USD, surpassing its initial 24 billion USD forecast. The market is optimistic, anticipating that the Q2 results might exceed expectations, similar to the previous quarter.
Technical analysis of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)
Exploring potential trading opportunities based on Nvidia's stock performance ahead of the earnings report:
Timeframe : Hourly (H1)
Current trend : the stock is showing an upward trend on a daily scale, with prices consolidating in a narrow range on the hourly chart as the market waits for the earnings announcement
Short-term target : the immediate upside target is set at the resistance level of 130.00 USD
Medium-term target : breaking past the 130.00 USD resistance could open the pathway to further gains, potentially reaching the yearly high of around 140.00 USD
Key support : currently established at 123.00 USD
Reversal scenario : if the price drops below the critical support level at 123.00 USD, it could negate the bullish outlook and lead to a potential decline towards the next support level around 115.00 USD
Market impact
The upcoming earnings report from Nvidia is poised to influence market sentiment significantly and could catalyse movements across the broader US stock market. A report surpassing expectations may propel Nvidia's stock and lift broader market indices, while a disappointing outcome could trigger a corrective phase in Nvidia shares and dampen market sentiments. Investors should stay tuned for the earnings release, which will provide critical insights into Nvidia's financial health and its impact on stock market dynamics.
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Nvidia (NVDA): Q2 Earnings Outlook Amid Stock Split & AI GrowthIntroduction
Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NVDA ) has been a dominant force in the technology sector, particularly in the AI chip market. As the company gears up to release its earnings report for the second quarter of 2024 on August 28th, investors are eagerly anticipating the results. With a year-to-date surge of over 150% and a pivotal stock split in June 2024, Nvidia continues to capture the market's attention.
Fundamental Overview: A Leader in AI Chips
Nvidia's Q2 earnings report is expected to show a year-over-year revenue increase of approximately 112%, bringing total revenue to $28.68 billion. This impressive growth is driven by the company’s dominance in the AI chip market, where its graphic processing units (GPUs) are critical for large-scale AI applications. Companies like Microsoft (MSFT) and other tech giants have been investing heavily in Nvidia’s technology to build out their AI infrastructure, which has significantly boosted Nvidia's revenue.
However, despite these strong sales figures, Nvidia's gross margin may see a slight decline. The adjusted gross margin is projected to drop by over 3 percentage points to 75.8% from the previous quarter, primarily due to the costs associated with ramping up production to meet the surging demand for its chips. This is a key area for investors to watch, as it could impact Nvidia's profitability in the near term.
Moreover, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) faces potential challenges in maintaining its rapid growth. With the law of large numbers coming into play, sustaining triple-digit revenue growth becomes increasingly difficult as the company’s market cap expands. Additionally, potential production delays for Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell AI chips could pose a risk to future earnings. Analysts have raised concerns about design hurdles that might push the chip’s launch timeline, potentially affecting revenue growth in the first half of 2025.
Nvidia's market position is also under scrutiny, with U.S. regulators probing the company’s business practices. There are growing antitrust concerns about whether Nvidia is leveraging its dominant position to pressure cloud providers into purchasing bundled products, including networking equipment alongside its sought-after AI chips. This regulatory environment adds another layer of complexity to Nvidia’s future prospects.
Despite these challenges, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is likely to continue its strong performance in the AI sector. The company is expected to forecast a 75% surge in third-quarter revenue to $31.69 billion, although this represents a slowdown from the triple-digit growth seen in previous quarters. Nevertheless, Nvidia’s position as a leader in AI technology is unlikely to be seriously challenged in the near future.
Technical Overview
From a technical perspective, Nvidia’s stock is showing signs of strength ahead of its earnings report. The stock closed last Friday’s session up 4.55%, indicating strong investor confidence as the company prepares to announce its results. Nvidia’s stock is currently valued at about 37 times its forward earnings, which is higher than the average of around 29 for the top six tech companies on the S&P 500. This premium valuation reflects the market’s high expectations for Nvidia’s future growth.
One of the key technical indicators to watch is Nvidia’s support and resistance levels. The stock has found solid support at $115.40, with a strong resistance pivot at $145.64. If Nvidia can break through this resistance level, it could trigger a significant rally, potentially driving the stock to new highs. Nvidia’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) was at 59.93 as of last Friday’s close, suggesting that the stock is in a healthy range, neither overbought nor oversold. This RSI level indicates that Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) could be primed for a surge, especially if the earnings report exceeds expectations.
Nvidia’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is also showing bullish momentum. The MACD line has been trending above the signal line, a classic indicator of upward momentum in a stock’s price. This technical setup suggests that Nvidia could continue its upward trajectory, particularly if the earnings report delivers positive surprises.
The Stock Split: Making Nvidia More Accessible
In June 2024, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) announced and completed a 10-for-1 stock split. This move was designed to make Nvidia’s shares more affordable to a broader range of investors after its stock price had soared to over $1,100 per share. The stock split increased the stock's liquidity, allowing more investors to participate in Nvidia’s growth story. Since the split, Nvidia’s stock price has continued to rise, driven by the company’s leadership in the AI sector and the ongoing demand for its cutting-edge GPUs.
The stock split also had the effect of broadening Nvidia’s investor base, as more retail investors were able to purchase shares at a lower price. This increase in liquidity has contributed to the stock’s continued upward momentum, as it has made it easier for investors to buy and sell shares quickly.
Conclusion
Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) is at the forefront of the AI revolution, and its upcoming earnings report is likely to be a major market mover. While the company faces challenges, including potential production delays and regulatory scrutiny, its dominant position in the AI chip market and its continued revenue growth make it a compelling investment opportunity.
From a technical perspective, Nvidia’s stock is showing signs of strength, with key support and resistance levels suggesting the potential for further gains. The recent stock split has made Nvidia more accessible to a wider range of investors, further bolstering its market position.
As Nvidia prepares to release its Q2 earnings, investors should keep a close eye on the company’s performance. A strong report could propel the stock to new highs, while any miss could trigger a broader sell-off in the AI sector. Nevertheless, Nvidia’s long-term growth prospects remain robust, making it a stock to watch closely in the weeks and months ahead.
Navigating NVIDIA Earnings Led Volatility with S&P 500 OptionsNVIDIA will announce its Q2 2025 results on 28th August. The semiconductor giant is expected to deliver USD 28.6 billion in revenues. Even a mild shortfall can send its stock prices tanking. The firm is slated to scale even greater heights on continued AI hardware demand & explosion in data centres.
ANALYSTS REMAIN BULLISH
NVIDIA enjoys buy rating with 12-month price targets ranging from USD 90 to USD 200 per share across 52 analysts.
Forty-seven analysts have strong buy rating followed by nine buys and five holds based on 61 analysts issuing ratings over the last three months.
The firm has a commanding position in the AI-driven chip market. Booming demand for GPUs in data centres and cloud computing serve as relentless tail winds.
NVIDIA EXPECTED TO DELIVER INCREDIBLE RESULTS ON GROWING AI DEMAND
AI demand is palpable. This demand is vindicated by eye popping financial performance. Few can deliver higher earnings without comprising margins. NVIDIA has crushed both.
Its revenues have risen 5.6x since 2019 while its net income has risen 10.6x during the same period. Its net income margins have expanded two-fold from 25.6% to 48.9% in the same time frame.
Little surprise that its shares are up 162.71% so far this year far surpassing S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and other mega caps.
NVIDIA IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ITS DOMINATION
Tech firms are in early stages of AI hardware adoption, driving demand for NVIDIA’s chips. Its data center business is a key revenue driver, benefiting from growing AI workloads.
Source: Statista
NVIDIA’s AI GPUs are crucial for machine learning and neural network tasks. GPUs will contribute to 40% of its total revenue in 2024.
The firm continues to expand its CUDA software ecosystem. CUDA enables developers to optimize AI workloads. Combination of hardware and software makes its ecosystem extremely sticky. It locks in developers & clients contributing to long-term revenues.
Furthermore, NVIDIA’s long-term roadmap includes innovations in AI chips designed for specific tasks, such as inferencing and deep learning, areas where its competitors have struggled to gain traction.
RECAPPING NVIDIA’S RECORD SHATTERING Q1 2025 EARNINGS
The firm delivered record quarterly revenues of USD 26 billion (up 18% QoQ & 262% YoY), primarily driven by a 427% surge in Data Center business. Its net income of USD 14.88 billion and diluted EPS of USD 5.98, marked 21% and 629% increase respectively YoY. The gross margin rose to 78.4%, up 2.4% QoQ & 13.8% YoY.
The firm also announced ten-for-one forward stock split effective 7th June. It increased quarterly dividend by 150% to $0.10 per post-split share. On such stunning results, its share prices rose 9.3% after announcement.
Even though NVIDIA share prices have risen, its price-to-earnings ratio have come off thanks to even sharper rise in its earnings.
The price paid for each dollar of earnings is cheapest over the last eight quarters based on P/E ratio. The P/E ratio is down to 51x as of Q1 2024 compared to 144x as of Q1 2023.
EARNINGS SURPRISES & SHOCKS AND ITS IMPACT ON STOCK PRICES
NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings has crushed expectations 21 out of the last 22 quarters since 2019. Beating earnings has become par for the course for this firm. Even mild shocks can cause tremors in its share prices.
It is no surprise then that the 12-month rolling beta of the firm is 2.78x making it highly volatile. Beta measures share price sensitivity to the overall market. It quantifies price moves of a stock to the broader index.
BETA HEDGING NVIDIA STOCKS WITH S&P 500 MICRO INDEX OPTIONS
Portfolio Managers holding NVIDIA stocks can cleverly use deeply liquid CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Index Options (CME Micro S&P 500 Options) to hedge against potential earnings linked price shocks.
Holding NVIDIA shares while hedging the holding via CME Micro S&P 500 Put Options helps to build effective portfolio resilience.
Investors are assumed to hold one-hundred shares for illustration. The notional value of NVIDIA shares is calculated using close of market price on 23rd August.
Trading View publishes twelve-month rolling beta for each stock. It can be used for calculating the required number of S&P 500 index puts to hedge against downside price risk.
We suggest adjusting the beta upwards (“Earnings Linked Beta”) by 50% to cater for earnings linked excess volatility.
The notional value of options is calculated using Earnings Linked Beta. Two lots of CME Micro S&P 500 Options are required to hedge 100 NVIDIA shares.
The table below demonstrates overall Beta Hedged P&L based on various price scenarios for NVIDIA share prices and S&P 500 futures price after earnings.
Single stock options can be used to hedge. The cost of hedging using them would be expensive due to elevated IV levels during earnings. Investors must balance cost savings against basis risks.
Please note that beta hedging involves basis risks. If the stock and index prices fail to move in tandem as expected, then beta hedge may not provide adequate protection from adverse price moves.
The table below illustrates Beta Hedged P&L if index moves in a muted manner which is unlikely.
The table below illustrates Beta Hedged P&L if index moves inversely to NVIDIA share prices. This scenario is a highly unlikely but is included for clarity of understanding and illustration purposes only.
Investors can consider exploiting elevated implied volatility in NVIDIA options by selling calls to partly fund the purchase of index put options.
By selling a 25-delta options expiring on 30th August, the investor creates a covered call strategy on the underlying NVIDIA stocks. A 25-delta call translates to a 142 strike and the last traded price on 23rd August was USD 2.70 per share. Investors can view up-to-date pricing sheets along with various options analysis tools on CME QuikStrike .
The P&L of beta hedge plus covered call assuming expected index moves is as shown below:
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
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NVDA: Bull caseHello,
looking at the wedge forming, it looks similar to few months before.
If it plays out, we will see $160+ NVDA.
Play safe during the earnings.
Happy trading NASDAQ:NVDA
nvdaStop loss is important
Not penetrating 131 with momentum
It is better to wait until the entry is confirmed or to enter into a high risk
The goals may be achieved this week before the company announcement
It is not a recommendation, but a technical analysis
NVIDIA, parabolic move in progressIn my previous posts on NVIDIA, i mentioned that we are heading north and its likely going to get steep as we move ahead.
The larger term view is we are going to complete larger Wave 3(multi-year) and we are in last wave 5 of wave 3(Please refer to my other chart for larger term view).
Now i have tried to put Livermore Speculative chart on same chart and as of now its following it. I have two targets. These targets are 204 and 306 which i got from fibonacci levels.
This is not a trade recommendation or financial advise. Kindly consider proper risk management.
If you like the idea, kindly like, share and subscribe. :)
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the the recent dip on NVDA:
nor before the big rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NVDA NVIDIA Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 138usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $15.65.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Bearish + Bullish + CORRECTION*Dip coming before earnings, close to earning or on the day Stock gets Bullish.
Later correction will be coming. * This correction can be re-evaluate later but dip and then bullish is what I think will be happening!!
Lets see
NVIDIA (NVDA) 1 Day Timeframe for Technical Analysis1. Trend Analysis:
Short-term Trend: NVDA has been in a strong uptrend with a recent correction. The price seems to be attempting to recover, but it's currently testing a key resistance zone.
Medium-term Trend: NVDA experienced a significant rally before pulling back. The current price action suggests the potential for either a continuation of the uptrend or further consolidation.
2. Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance Levels:
$140.82 - $140.76: This zone represents a strong resistance level and aligns with the previous swing high. A break above this level would likely lead to a continuation of the uptrend.
$136.20: Another key resistance level, slightly below the $140.82 - $140.76 zone. Breaking this level could be the first indication of bullish momentum.
$129.37: The current price level, which appears to be struggling to break higher. If it does, the next target would be $136.20.
Support Levels:
$90.78: This level represents significant support and could serve as a target if the price breaks down from current levels. It’s also a key level to watch for potential long entries if the price rebounds here.
$75.64: A critical support level below $90.78. If NVDA drops to this level, it would indicate a deeper correction and potential bearish sentiment.
$39.23: This is a distant support level but should be kept in mind as a worst-case scenario if the market turns extremely bearish.
3. Chart Patterns:
Symmetrical Triangle: The chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern, with the price approaching the apex. This pattern indicates indecision and can break either way. A breakout or breakdown from this triangle will likely determine the next significant move for NVDA.
Wedge Pattern: The price action also shows a wedge, which is generally a continuation pattern. A breakout above the wedge would likely lead to a move towards the next resistance levels.
4. Indicators:
MACD: The MACD shows a recent bullish crossover, which could signal the beginning of a new uptrend. However, if the price fails to break above key resistance levels, this signal could be invalidated.
Volume: The volume shows a slight increase, which might suggest that a breakout is imminent. However, it’s crucial to monitor whether this volume sustains.
5. Price Action & Trading Strategy:
Bullish Scenario:
Entry Point: Consider entering a long position if the price breaks above $136.20 with strong volume, targeting the next resistance at $140.82 - $140.76. A break above this zone could lead to a continuation towards new highs.
Exit Point: Take profits near $140.82 - $140.76 if the price struggles to break above. If momentum is strong, consider holding a portion of the position for a potential move towards higher levels.
Bearish Scenario:
Entry Point: Consider shorting if the price fails to break above $136.20 and shows signs of weakness, targeting the lower support at $90.78. A breakdown below $90.78 could lead to a further decline towards $75.64.
Exit Point: Take profits near $90.78 once support is tested. If the price continues to fall, consider holding for a move towards $75.64, with a stop-loss above $136.20 to protect against a reversal.
Risk Management: Use stop-loss orders to protect against adverse moves. Position sizing is crucial, with stops placed just below key support or above key resistance levels.
6. Forecasted Direction:
Bullish Above: $136.20, with a target to reach $140.82 - $140.76. If this level is breached, NVDA could target new highs.
Bearish Below: $136.20, with a potential test of $90.78 as the first downside target. If the price drops below $90.78, further downside could lead to a test of $75.64.
Gap Analysis:
Gap Above:
$140.82 - $140.76: If NVDA breaks above $136.20, the gap at this level might be filled, and the price could push higher.
Gap Below:
$90.78: If the price breaks down from current levels, the gap could be filled as NVDA moves towards this support level.
Summary:
Key Levels to Watch:
Bullish Breakout: Above $136.20, targeting $140.82 - $140.76, with potential for further upside.
Bearish Breakdown: Below $136.20, targeting $90.78 with potential further downside to $75.64.
Gap Fill Likelihood:
First Gap to Fill: If the price breaks above $136.20, the gap at $140.82 - $140.76 is likely to be filled first.
Alternative Gap Fill: If the price fails to break above $136.20 and starts declining, the gap near $90.78 might be filled next.
This analysis should give you a clear roadmap for potential trading opportunities in NVDA based on the current technical setup. Keep an eye on the key levels mentioned and be prepared to act based on the direction of the breakout or breakdown from the current consolidation.
NVDA may even see 131 before ER see the MACD RSI and stoch crossThis is still an incredible entry, in my opinion. Usually, I wouldn't say I like the day of earnings, but as much as this has moved since the bottom at mid-90, there is room to run before earnings. I am bullish before earnings and will then reevaluate.
NvidiaWhen #Nvidia breaks down, all hell breaks loose!
That is when #Gold probably finally breaks out versus #Spx and #Nasdaq.
But it can very well go up above 300$ before that happens!
See annotations below and just watch for those cracks in its armor to appear first.
NVDA Near Historic Highs: Awaiting Key Breakout SignalsI’m sharing a weekly chart analysis for NVDA, focusing on its current position near historical highs at $129 after a bounce from $90.
From the logarithmic scale chart, it's clear that NVDA has been in a long-term progression channel since July 2015. Currently, the price is positioned on the upper deviation line of this channel, indicating a potential resistance area. Given this position on the logarithmic scale, I am leaning towards a short bias as it suggests we could see a pullback or correction.
I’ve also identified two cup & handle patterns, each with their respective targets. However, these patterns will only be validated based on the next price movements.
While there is still a blue support trend and a red resistance trend in play, the price near its historical highs and its proximity to the upper boundary of the progression channel suggest that a downward movement could be more likely. However, due to the large time scale of the weekly chart, we should wait for further confirmation of a downtrend before taking a short position.
For now, I recommend caution and suggest waiting for a confirmed breakout or breakdown from the current channel before making any decisive trades. I’d love to hear your insights and thoughts on this setup.
NVDA Short300 million share ask offloaded up here. Could see a pullback to MA based off of the selling. SL above recent high.
Bullish Short Term Setup In NVIDIAPlease note:
This is an If-Then setup in the NVIDIA stock. The share price fell quickly and dramatically today. So drastically that the price fell below the low of the value area of the last upward move.
This situation offers us the opportunity for a short term long trade
We enter this trade under the following condition:
We wait for two closing prices within the Value Area, so the closing prices should be above the 124.95 dollar mark.
We set the SL below the low of Monday's over-the-counter trading and select the high of the value area at USD 130.12 as the price target.
NVDA - Wave 3 Complete? Moving into Wave 4 territoryIt's a great day here for all you BitDoctor patients! Quick update on NVDA - Last update stated that NVDA was in wave 3 territory and we discussed termination of that wave 3 roughly at the 161.8% extension level around $131. We stopped just shy of that yesterday and now we're seeing a move down to $122.
In the coming weeks (yes, this trading stuff takes time sometimes), I would expect NVDA to break that $122 level and ultimately go somewhere near $117-$118.
I'd consider being a buyer in that area but it's possible we get a front run of that zone. Keep in mind, however, that a break of $117 (on a daily) would mean that we likely will retest $110 and if that breaks, we're looking at $104. It's not the likely scenario at this moment, but it's not completely off the table. Other things need to happen to increase any bearish confidence.
Above $117 on a daily keeps confidence in the bull scenario where my primary target, at least for 2024, would be $140. Once we start to approach that level, we'll see where things land.
Have a great day everyone!
NVDA - I'm not trading this until stock gets above trendline.NVDA above 127.57 could be a nice long trade again. Ugly candle yesterday.
NVIDIA (NVDA): Wave 1 Nearly Complete – New Entry Opportunity?After a break, we’re taking another look at NVIDIA, which is now around $100 — which sounds like a much more attractive level compared to $1100. But it isn't, as in the meantime we witnessed a stock split. We still see more upside for NVIDIA as we believe we are in Wave (5) of the current cycle, if our count is correct.
Zooming in, the past surge doesn't need much commentary as it was mostly upward movement without significant corrections. Now, it looks like we’re getting into the intra-wave structure. We expect Wave 1 to finish after one last leg up to complete the five-wave cycle for Wave 1.
Afterward, we could look for entry points at the end of Wave 2. If this scenario plays out with the bearish divergence on the RSI, we will update you on how we plan to position ourselves.
NVIDIA (NVDA) Technical Analysis and Forecast for August 23, 20Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance:
$131.00: This is a significant resistance zone. We’ve seen strong selling pressure here, which aligns with the volume profile indicating heavy trading activity around this level. Breaking above $131 could open the door to higher levels.
$125.83: A near-term resistance level that has acted as a ceiling over the last few sessions.
Support:
$124.52: This is immediate support. The price has bounced off this level before, and it's crucial for bulls to hold this to avoid a deeper pullback.
$118.00: If $124.52 fails, $118.00 is the next key support. This level is critical as the volume profile suggests less trading activity below this, meaning a break here could lead to a swift decline.
Trend Analysis:
The uptrend has been broken, as evidenced by the price falling below the ascending trendline. This break indicates a potential shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish unless the price quickly recovers above it.
MACD is showing signs of a bullish crossover on the hourly chart, hinting that a short-term bounce could be on the horizon. However, confirmation is needed, and this should be watched closely.
Entry and Exit Strategies:
Bullish Setup:
Entry: Consider entering around $124.52 if it shows strong support, especially with a MACD crossover confirming bullish momentum.
Targets:
First target: $125.83, where profit-taking is likely.
Second target: $131.00, if the momentum continues.
Stop-Loss: Place a stop just below $124.00 to minimize risk.
Bearish Setup:
Entry: If $124.52 breaks down with strong volume, a short position could be considered.
Targets:
First target: $122.00, an area of minor support.
Second target: $118.00, where stronger support lies.
Stop-Loss: Set a stop just above $125.83 to avoid being caught in a short squeeze.
News Impact and Market Sentiment:
with Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking at Jackson Hole tomorrow, the market could see increased volatility. Traders should be prepared for potential market-moving headlines, which could impact NVDA’s price action.
Forecast for Tomorrow:
Tomorrow’s trading will likely be influenced by broader market sentiment and any further news or developments. If the market reacts negatively to any comments from the Fed, we could see NVDA testing lower supports. However, if the sentiment is positive, and the MACD crossover gains strength, NVDA could attempt to reclaim higher resistance levels.
Summary: NVIDIA is at a pivotal point. Keep an eye on the $124.52 support and the $131.00 resistance as key levels for tomorrow's trading. The stock could go either way depending on market sentiment.
NVDA - Pullback to mean?A follow up on my previous post about NVDA returning to BB mean.
We hit VAH, and got a good bounce, but now it seems like we are getting rejected from channel center line. If we start breaking the channel and go below VAH, next area to be aware of is POC around 45. This aligns with my previous post of NVDA could go to visit BB means.
This won't of course happen in a day or two, but over longer timeframe.
Or this could just be an imagination of my mind.
NVDA - RE-TEST 95 AGAIN; MAKE OR BREAK FOR BEARSSee my previous posts last few days. I've been skeptical of this rally, and have been holding through this fake breakout.
$125 is a major support level for bears to break for any movement.
My opinion is that Wave C could have happened at "A".
Bullish bounce off the $95.68 level if re-tested, would invalidate this correction wave structure.
If there is a bearish breakthrough 95, i see it testing $80 FAST.
The risk of going long on NVDA here is too high for any appeal. If price action starts to slow down after reaching ATH's, it is natural to be wary if the rally still has any steam. A good example is Apple in Dec 2023 until Apr 2024. Apple re-tests ATH, and a slow steady decline after ATH Rally runs out of steam.
Disclosure: Currently long NVD shares @ avg 1.70
NVIDIA Is Setting A Bull TrapWithin 14 days, NVIDIA shares have gained more than 43%. The normal madness of the tech star of the last two years.
A new ATH has been set. Now... We see things a little differently. We are currently assuming that NVIDIA (like the market as a whole) is setting up a bull trap. However, we initially expect NVIDIA to rise to the USD 132 area before the price turns down. We select the open gap at just over USD 112 as the target area.
In our view, this price target represents a minimum price target, as we expect a very pronounced correction in the overall market of 25-35% in the longer term (for the next six to twelve months).
NVDA Technical Analysis (for August 22, 2024)1. Price Action Overview:
Chart Overview: The image shows a 1-hour chart for NVDA, which indicates short-term price action.
Trend Lines: There are ascending channel lines that the price seems to be respecting, suggesting an upward trend.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $130.64
Support:
$128.52
$127.83
$125.83 (Critical support level)
2. Indicators:
Volume Profile: The chart has a visible volume profile on the right, showing areas where significant trading volume occurred. The highest volume node is around the $127.83 - $128.52 region, which suggests strong support.
MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at the bottom of the chart, showing a potential crossover. This could indicate momentum building up, but it needs confirmation.
3. Price Action Analysis:
Recent Behavior: The price is currently moving upwards within the ascending channel. It is near the middle of the channel, having recently bounced from the lower trend line.
Short-Term Trend: The short-term trend is bullish, as indicated by the upward channel. However, the proximity to resistance at $130.64 may create some selling pressure.
4. Trading Strategy :
Scenario 1: Continued Uptrend
Entry: If the price breaks above $130.64 with strong volume, enter a long position.
Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss slightly below $128.52 (around $128) to minimize risk.
Target: Consider a target around $133-$135, which would be in line with the upper channel line.
Scenario 2: Pullback
Entry: If the price fails to break $130.64 and shows signs of reversal (e.g., bearish candle pattern), consider shorting.
Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss just above the $130.64 level.
Target: The first target would be around $127.83. If the price breaks this level, the next target would be near $125.83.
5. Other Strategies Approach:
Options Strategy: Professionals might consider using options to hedge or enhance returns. For example:
Bullish Bias: Buy a call option with a strike price slightly above $130.64 if expecting a breakout.
Bearish Bias: Purchase a put option with a strike price around $128.52 if anticipating a pullback.
Scalping: Given NVDA's high liquidity and volatility, scalping within the channel boundaries might be profitable. Use the 1-minute or 5-minute charts to find quick trades.
6. Conclusion:
Bias: The general trend is bullish, but NVDA is nearing a key resistance level. Tomorrow's action will likely depend on whether NVDA can break through $130.64 or if it faces rejection.
Watchlist: Keep an eye on volume spikes, news, and broader market conditions as they will heavily influence NVDA's price action.
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