BUY APPLEApple is an uptrend channel and bullish on the weekly timeframe.
The next target is to the upper of the channel at area 265-270.
AAPL trade ideas
Apple’s iPhone 16 Launch: Post-Event Pullback?Looking at the weekly chart (1W) of Apple (AAPL) with the vertical lines marking the dates of iPhone launch events, we can attempt to identify a more consistent pattern around these events.
Key Observations:
Pre-Launch Price Rally: In nearly all the iPhone launch events, we observe a notable pre-event rally. This suggests that investors tend to buy Apple stock in anticipation of the product reveal, leading to upward momentum in the weeks leading up to the launch. Magnitude of Rally: In many cases, the stock gains significant value leading up to the event, as investors and traders speculate on the success of the new product.
Post-Launch Behavior: Short-Term Pullbacks: A clear pattern emerges where, immediately after the event, Apple's stock often experiences a pullback or consolidation. This appears to be a classic "sell the news" reaction, where investors who had bought the stock in anticipation of the event sell to lock in profits. For example, following the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 launches, we saw short-term pullbacks lasting a few weeks. Long-Term Trend Continuation: Despite the short-term corrections, the long-term trajectory of AAPL tends to remain upward. After most iPhone launches, even if there is a post-event pullback, the stock eventually resumes its upward trend. This long-term bullish trend suggests that Apple’s underlying business remains strong, supported by sustained iPhone sales and other product lines.
More Defined Patterns: Pre-Launch Rally: Across most launches (iPhone 6, 7, X, and 12 in particular), the stock rallies leading up to the event by 10-15% on average. This suggests a strong investor confidence buildup before the actual product reveal. Post-Event Decline: In many instances (notably the iPhone 6s, 7, and 12), there is a consistent 5-10% decline after the launch. This sell-off usually lasts a few weeks to a couple of months, after which the stock resumes its longer-term upward trajectory.
Current iPhone 16 Presentation (Today): Pre-Event Setup: Currently, AAPL has shown some weakness in the weeks leading up to the iPhone 16 presentation. The stock has pulled back slightly, breaking the pattern of a strong pre-launch rally seen in previous years. Technical Indicators: The MACD is showing some bearish momentum, which suggests that the stock might be due for a further pullback post-launch, consistent with the historical pattern of profit-taking after these events.
Potential Short-Term and Long-Term Strategy: Short-Term: Given the clear pattern of a post-event pullback, traders might anticipate a brief decline following today’s iPhone 16 presentation. This would align with the past pattern where Apple stock typically declines by 5-10% after the launch. Long-Term: Despite short-term volatility, Apple’s long-term uptrend has remained intact. Investors who are more focused on the long-term may consider any post-launch correction as a buying opportunity, as AAPL tends to resume its upward trend within a few weeks to months after these events.
Conclusion: The most consistent pattern around Apple’s iPhone launch events is a pre-launch rally followed by a post-launch pullback. This sell-the-news behavior often creates a short-term decline, but Apple’s long-term growth trajectory remains strong. For today’s iPhone 16 presentation, based on historical data, we may see a similar short-term correction, but long-term investors could view this as an opportunity to add to their positions.
APPL Repeating patterns Baseline 180 pullbackNot financial advice
But it's clear as day you can see that we an an upthrust
Followed by a secondary retest
Classic wyckoff distribution pattern
My target would be 180 at a minimum
Apple Inc & the iPhone 16 Launch: What Lies Ahead for the Giant?Apple Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) is set to host its highly anticipated iPhone 16 launch event on Monday, September 9, 2024. This event, widely considered Apple’s most important of the year, comes at a pivotal time for the tech giant, as it struggles to convince investors and consumers alike that its flagship product still has room for innovation and growth.
iPhone 16 Launch: What’s New?
The iPhone 16 lineup, including the iPhone 16, 16 Plus, 16 Pro, and 16 Pro Max, will be the focal point of the event. However, industry analysts, including Bloomberg, have indicated that the new iPhones will not feature significant design changes compared to their predecessors, the iPhone 15 series. The base models will see minor upgrades like faster processors, increased storage capacity, and the inclusion of the action button previously exclusive to the Pro models.
The Pro versions will boast slightly larger screens, slimmer bezels, improved processors, more advanced AI features, and enhanced camera capabilities. However, these iterative updates might struggle to capture the excitement that previous models once did, reflecting Apple’s current challenge in the fiercely competitive smartphone market.
Declining iPhone Sales and Revenue Concerns
Apple’s iPhone remains its most important revenue driver, yet the segment has shown signs of slowing growth. In the most recent quarter, iPhone sales revenue fell to $32.29 billion from $39.66 billion a year earlier, reflecting broader challenges in the consumer electronics market. Over the first half of 2024, iPhone sales dipped from $156 billion to $154 billion year-over-year, highlighting the difficulties Apple faces in reigniting demand.
The broader issue for Apple lies in its perceived stagnation; incremental upgrades in the iPhone 16 may not be enough to drive substantial sales growth. This problem is compounded by changing consumer habits, as people now tend to hold onto their iPhones for 3 to 4 years before upgrading, compared to shorter upgrade cycles in the past.
Apple’s other hardware segments, such as the iPad, face similar challenges. While iPad sales rose to $7.1 billion in the last quarter, the line’s growth prospects remain questionable due to the lack of distinguishing features that set it apart from larger iPhones or other tablets.
Expanding Services: Apple’s Growing Revenue Driver
While iPhone and hardware sales may be slowing, Apple’s services segment continues to show resilience, growing from $81.7 billion in Q2 2023 to over $85.7 billion in the latest quarter. This high-margin segment, encompassing Apple Pay, Arcade, Music, News, and the App Store, has become a critical revenue driver as the company navigates challenging hardware markets.
However, even with robust growth in services, the company’s overall valuation remains under scrutiny. Apple’s $3.4 trillion market cap, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.63 and a forward EV-to-sales ratio of 8.47, has drawn skepticism from prominent investors, including Warren Buffett, who has recently trimmed his stake in the company. As Apple’s core revenue sources face headwinds, the question of whether its valuation can be justified looms large.
Technical Analysis: Potential Downside Ahead?
From a technical perspective, Apple’s stock chart is flashing warning signs. Recently, the stock has formed a double-top pattern, a classic bearish signal, with a neckline around $195.80. Should this level break, it could trigger a deeper correction, aligning with broader concerns over Apple’s growth trajectory.
Key support levels to monitor include $218, where a trendline support intersects with significant historical price action, followed by $207, which aligns with previous breakout levels. A failure to hold these zones could see the stock retest the critical $196 support, near its 200-day moving average. Conversely, resistance looms near $233, a level that coincides with recent 1 Month High and where investors may look to lock in gains amid a potentially volatile period.
Competitive Pressures: Huawei’s Tri-Fold Phone Steals the Spotlight
Adding to Apple’s challenges, Huawei has captured attention with its new tri-fold smartphone, the Mate XT, which has already amassed 2.7 million pre-orders. This launch underscores the growing competition Apple faces, particularly in China, where it recently fell out of the top five smartphone vendors. As Huawei and other Chinese manufacturers push the envelope with innovative designs and features, Apple’s lack of a folding phone remains a glaring omission in its product lineup.
Conclusion: A Critical Moment for Apple
As Apple gears up for its iPhone 16 launch, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The company’s ability to excite consumers and investors with its new lineup will be closely scrutinized, especially given the stock’s recent technical weakness and ongoing fundamental challenges. While Apple’s robust services segment provides a buffer, the question of whether this alone can sustain its lofty valuation remains unanswered. For now, Apple’s near-term fortunes may hinge on how well the market receives the iPhone 16 and whether it can navigate an increasingly complex competitive landscape.
Weekly Analysis Mag 7The mag 7 is an important part of analyzing the S&P and Nasdaq due to the weight they pull. The mag 7 is threating to break a major uptrend and eventually the April lows like many others. It's critical for bulls to hold the line here or we're about to have a bloody September and October.
AAPL: Wave 3APPL will be in wave 3 this week. Expecting much selling throughout the majority of equities this week.
PT 201
Apple ShortApple short opportunity
price has reacted from a supply zone
seasonality down for this month as well as all indices
price is overvalued short and long term vs US bonds
Trade safe
AAPL ShortEarly signal on the monthly TF from a seller. If price doesn't pass pivot to the upside then we are in good shape. Monthly close under will confirm selling.
Pivot 222.10
$AAPL finished 19 weeks of rally from its 19 week modeNASDAQ:AAPL is already IN a weekly downtrend.
NASDAQ:AAPL is below the mode since the high
NASDAQ:AAPL peaked 7 weeks ago
NASDAQ:AAPL had a weekly range expansion down this week to trigger a sell signal
NASDAQ:AAPL had a RESZ rally into 50-75% resistance this week after RgExp down
Stop loss $226, downside $195
I also labeled Warren Buffett's sale of $100 billion worth of NASDAQ:AAPL , but he also still has a 30% position in NASDAQ:AAPL in his portfolio
The stop is close and the downside is meaningful
Granted, Apple has its new product release happening soon which will keep potential sellers from selling but it may make potential buyers hold off on buying
Time will tell
Tim
3:47PM EST 9/6/2024
$220.85 last -1.53
AAPL to $205Price at top channel
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level
TTM Squeeze is on
TTM Squeeze momentum is up
In at $226.50
Looking for a pullback to $205
AAPL: All Signs Point to Sell The AAPL chart is flashing sell signals, with price hovering near key red lines resistance. Sellers seem to be in control, and the setup suggests further downside potential. Will we see a break lower, or is a surprise bounce lurking?
Feel free to share your thoughts on this setup in the comments, and follow for more trade ideas!
*Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always trade responsibly!*
Apple strengthens its position in India with Bharti AirtelApple has partnered with India's second-largest telecom operator, giving the iPhone producer a much-needed boost in the content market. The company remains significantly behind giants such as Spotify and Walt Disney in this market.
The American tech corporation, aiming to increase global revenue from services, including apps, payment systems, and media, will offer 281 million Bharti Airtel customers free access to streaming music and video. In doing so, the company achieves two goals at once: diversification and sales growth.
Let's examine Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) stock chart for possible trades from a technical analysis point of view.
On the D1 timeframe, resistance has formed at 233.00 USD, with support at 217.50 USD. The asset is in an upward trend with the quotes above the support line. If the trend reverses, the target for the fall could be 202.80 USD.
If the upward trend continues after breaking through the resistance level at 233.00 USD, the short-term target could be 240.55 USD. In the medium term, the price may rise to 250.00 USD.
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APPLE Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the APPLE next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 228.86
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 219.98
My Stop Loss - 233.40
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
They do look really alike, though, don't they? Yes. I am posting the bubble template thing.
I both love and loath the bubble template. It really has been useful to me since I became aware of it (Sometime back around 2014 I'd guess) in helping me to understand the overall structural build and decline of a trend. When combined with trend ideas like Elliot wave and fib ratios etc - this overall model has proven very useful. And over enough time, most charts end like this.
Unfortunately, the model is somewhat lacking ... details. Like, it does not mention you're going to see a "Return to normal" phase 1,000 times before it happens.
I've traded this basic model 10s of thousands of times (Because you can use this same idea on intra day trends. Over all markets this is happening 100s of times a week. More if you're on scalping time frames) and the overall path is a little more jaggy. Same idea - just it's not as nice and clean as the template.
Also if you ever spot this and are ever right- you can be almost certain if you share your ideas you'll experience a lot of name calling during this period.
Into the "New Paradigm" if you've persistently posted about it you'll have stalker trolls. That's just how markets and internet interact.
Let's for a moment suspend disbelief (Or lean in your bias if you're a super bear) and do a thought experiment on what it would mean if this was in play.
I think the really critical aspect to take into consideration here is the "First sell off" bear trap section is a very small move relative to the actual crash. It's a huge move in real time but after the big crash has happened it will be demoted to a footnote in the story of the great bubble and crash.
We have a real world historical example of this. Around 1920 there was a series of panics in the stock market. At one point things were so bad they closed the stock market. This would be the worst market conditions experienced in that lifetime and this event would be dubbed the "Great Depression".
You can now read about this event by looking up terms such as "The forgotten depression" - you'll no longer find it by looking up the Great Depression. The "Less Great Depression" became a footnote in history. A totally wild event and recovery that almost no one knows of because of the shadow of the Roaring 20's and the Great Depression.
If you apply that same concept to modern markets, the implied forecast would be horrific. We'd be having the 2008 event as the mini bear. We're calling it "Great Financial Crisis" but, in our hypothetical scenarios, history would look at this as essentially a non-event relate to the bubble that would then form and pop.
It's this starting stage I find most compelling. The probably with the "Greed / delusion" etc stages is if you're looking for these you're going to see them when the market goes parabolic, but a lot of times there market might just be making breakouts. If you look for them, you'll find AAPL charts templated to this when AAPL was $10.
The stages of late trend also look a lot like the stages of mid trend development. But what's really interesting is how well the flat "Smart" section and then the huge shake out bear trap sections "Fit" here. And if we use these levels to draw our mean the typical crash path would now fully agree with the mean reversion levels.
In this bust model the bust always comes a little under the low of the bear trap section.
And this is always a slight overshoot of the mean (Despair stage).
It has to be said it's been true you could have incorrectly used this model to make the same forecast on AAPL for a long time. The model has a lot of limitations.
But we now have a lot of confluences and ratios that really do not appear very often.
Would make a lot of sense from a TA perspective.
Apple - Still Outperforming Everything!Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) is stronger than 99% of stocks:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Despite the recent stock market weakness, Apple is trading at new all time highs. This clearly indicates that buyers don't let this stock down but are rather buying every dip. Even though Apple is retesting a channel resistance, a breakout followed by a rally is definitely possible.
Levels to watch: $230, $280
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Change Of Plan! Apple 20% Drop Coming Sooner Than ExpectedWhat changed? What is different now and why is a 20% crash so close?
We use the chart as our guide, it helps us know the market bias; bearish or bullish, it helps determine the tendency, dynamics and trend of a certain given asset, good, commodity or stock.
Technical analysis has been proven to work.
What is the major event, catalysts, that will be the cause of the major downturn that all the assets are pointing toward to? Nuclear war?
Is it something less damaging to the human heart and soul?
I don't know, but there will be panic.
➖ AAPL Technical Analysis @AlanSantana
The Apple Inc stock, AAPL, peaked 15-July 2024. Notice that the correction (bear-market) is already 50 days old.
Late August, on the 29, a lower high came in and this lower high is now fully confirmed with the action that is happening this week.
Bearish action is predominant.
The first stop will be below 200 and the second stop around 175.
Are you prepared?
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
Apple Sell OpportunityApple Sell Setup Confirmed, failed swing on the intermediate Term High, the price action is clear, targeting the monthly imbalance for a leat 3RR.
Apple Sell OpportunityApple Sell Setup Confirmed, failed swing on the intermediate Term High, the price action is clear, targeting the monthly imbalance for a leat 3RR.
Apple chart September 2024Apple is showing a weaker RSI in the last move-up. The new iphone release and AI features makes investors expect a boost on sales, but maybe it will not happen at all. A drop between 10 and 20% could happen.
Same concerns for magnificent7 stocks.
APPLE SELL SIGNAL ELLIOTT WAVEHere on APPLE price has been in uptrend and made some resistance around 232.91 then started falling . According to Elliott wave that predicted down this means that going for SHORT is needed and targeting profit should be around 213.43 and 197.32 . Use money management
AAPL Buy forecastAAPL New forecast👨💻👨💻
Note:
Follow proper risk management rules. Never risk more then 2% of your total capital. Money management is the key of success in this business........ Set your own SL & TP.
How to Perform Fundamental Analysis of StocksHow to Perform Fundamental Analysis of Stocks
In the dynamic world of financial markets, traders seek every available edge to make informed decisions. Among the numerous tools at their disposal, two approaches stand out: technical analysis and fundamental analysis of stocks. In this article, we will explore what fundamental analysis is, how it applies to stocks, and why it is a crucial tool for traders. Traders have the option to open an FXOpen account to perform fundamental analysis on numerous stocks available at FXOpen.
Understanding Fundamental Analysis
Before diving into the intricacies of fundamental analysis, it's essential to grasp the basics of technical and fundamental analysis.
Technical analysis primarily focuses on historical price and volume data to predict future price movements. Traders using this approach rely on charts, trendlines, and indicators like moving averages and Relative Strength Index (RSI) to make trading decisions.
Fundamental analysis, on the other hand, takes a more holistic view. It delves into the financial statements of a firm, examines economic indicators, and assesses industry trends. The goal is to determine the intrinsic value of an asset and whether it is overvalued or undervalued in the market.
Key Fundamental Analysis Components
Fundamental analysis involves several key components that traders must understand to make informed decisions:
Financial Statements
Fundamental analysis begins with a deep dive into a company's financial statements. These documents provide a wealth of information that is critical for assessing a company's financial performance. The three primary financial statements to consider are:
Balance Sheet: This statement offers an overview of a company's assets, liabilities, and shareholders' equity at a specific point in time. It acts as a quick overview of the company's financial standing.
Income Statement: Also known as the profit and loss statement, the income statement details a company's revenue, expenses, and profitability over a specific period. These ratios evaluate a company's capability to fulfil its immediate commitments.
Cash Flow Statement: The cash flow statement tracks the inflow and outflow of cash from the company's operating, investing, and financing activities. It offers valuable information about the company's liquidity and cash management.
Ratios and Metrics
To gain deeper insights into a company's financial health, fundamental analysts use various financial ratios and metrics. Some of the key ratios and metrics include:
Liquidity Ratios: These ratios evaluate a company's capability to fulfil its immediate commitments. Notable examples include the Current Ratio and Quick Ratio.
Profitability Ratios: These ratios measure a company's ability to generate profit relative to its revenue and assets. Examples include the Gross Margin, Net Profit Margin, Return on Equity (ROE), and Return on Assets (ROA).
Solvency Ratios: Solvency ratios evaluate a company's ability to meet its long-term financial obligations. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio and Interest Coverage Ratio are significant in this category.
Efficiency Ratios: These ratios assess how efficiently a company manages its resources to generate income. Examples include Inventory Turnover, Receivables Turnover, and Payables Turnover.
Growth Metrics
Understanding a firm's growth trajectory is essential for projecting its future potential and assessing its investment attractiveness.
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Growth: This metric indicates the rate at which a firm's earnings per share are increasing or decreasing over time.
Revenue Growth: It measures the growth in a firm's revenue compared to a specific period.
Book Value per Share Growth Rate: This metric assesses the increase in the firm's Book Value Per Share over the last five years.
Steps to Perform Fundamental Analysis
Here are the most essential steps to perform fundamental analysis.
Company Selection
The first step of fundamental analysis in the stock market is selecting the companies you want to analyse. Criteria for selection may include factors like the company's industry, market capitalisation, and growth potential. It's crucial to consider the broader industry landscape and market trends to identify promising candidates.
Collecting Financial Data
Gathering accurate and relevant financial data is paramount. Sources of financial data include the company's website, authority filings, and financial news outlets. Ensuring the data's accuracy and timeliness is essential for making informed decisions.
Analysing Financial Statements
In-depth analysis of a company's financial statements is the heart of fundamental analysis. Such metrics as a balance sheet and income and cash flow statements that were mentioned above are widely used by traders and investors to determine companies’ strengths and weaknesses.
Calculating and Interpreting Ratios
Utilising financial ratios is a critical aspect of fundamental analysis. These ratios provide a quantitative basis for evaluating a company's performance. Comparing the ratios with industry benchmarks helps identify areas of strength or weakness.
Evaluating Business Strategy
Assessing the quality of a company's management and its strategic decisions is another crucial element of fundamental analysis. This involves evaluating factors such as corporate governance, competitive positioning, and market share.
Economic and Industry Analysis
Understanding the broader economic landscape and industry dynamics is essential for contextualising a company's performance. Identifying macroeconomic trends and the stage of the industry lifecycle is critical.
Valuation Techniques
Fundamental analysts employ various valuation techniques to determine whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued. These techniques help traders make informed decisions about whether to buy, sell, or hold a particular asset. Common methods include:
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis: This method calculates the present value of a company's future cash flows to estimate its intrinsic value.
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio Analysis: Comparing a company's stock price to its earnings per share, relative to industry peers, to assess its valuation.
Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio Analysis: Comparing a company's market capitalisation to its book value per share to determine undervalued and overvalued companies.
Risk Factors and Limitations
Fundamental analysis, while a powerful tool, comes with its own set of challenges and limitations:
1. Incomplete Data: Many firms, especially in less regulated markets, may not disclose full financial information, thus hindering comprehensive analysis.
2. Future Uncertainty: Even though it's grounded in thorough research, fundamental analysis relies heavily on historical economic data. This approach also makes assumptions about future geopolitical and macroeconomic events, which can be unpredictable, thereby carrying a degree of inherent uncertainty.
3. Subjectivity: Different analysts may interpret the same data in various ways, leading to different conclusions about a currency's value.
4. Overemphasis on Long-term: Fundamental analysis typically focuses on long-term economic cycles and trends, potentially missing out on short-term trading opportunities.
5. Political Instabilities: Unexpected political events, like elections, conflicts, or diplomatic tensions, can have sudden and significant impacts on a stock value.
6. Global Events: Natural disasters, pandemics, or major technological breakthroughs can all have unforeseen effects on the stock market, making predictions based on fundamental analysis challenging.
7. Market Perception: Even if all fundamentals point towards a particular trend, market perception and investor sentiment can drive the market in the opposite direction.
8. Lagging Nature: By the time certain economic indicators are published, the market might have already reacted, making it a lagging tool.
By understanding these limitations, traders can complement their fundamental analysis with other techniques to make more informed decisions in the forex market.
Conclusion
Fundamental analysis is pivotal for traders who aim to make judicious decisions in the financial landscape. It extends beyond just scrutinising financial statements, encompassing the assessment of crucial ratios, metrics, and the overarching economic and industry environment to gauge an asset's inherent worth. FXOpen enhances this analytical journey with its suite of resources.
You can combine fundamental and technical tools on the TickTrader platform to conduct a comprehensive analysis, allowing you to navigate the intricate realm of financial markets with bolstered confidence and insight.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
