AAPL trade ideas
Apple and Microsoft: Which Stock Offers Greater Tech Potential?Apple and Microsoft: Which Stock Offers Greater Technical Potential?
Reading time: 7 minutes
Tech giants Apple (ticker: AAPL) and Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) both outperformed last year, adding 48.0% and 57.0%, respectively. Both are also part of the widely talked-about Magnificent Seven Stocks (includes Amazon , Nvidia , Meta Platforms , Tesla and Alphabet ), which collectively rose nearly 80.0% in 2023, according to the Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Total Return Index. However, while Microsoft has continued to climb higher in 2024 (+13.0% year to date), Apple has struggled to find acceptance at higher levels (-12.0% year to date).
According to an analysis of the weekly timeframes, the technical picture for Apple and Microsoft is interesting for the months ahead.
Trend?
Microsoft's shares are in a solid position in terms of trend. A basic analysis of the stock’s trend illustrates that the company’s share price is in a clear uptrend, forming an all-time high at $430.82 in recent trading. This is positive for buyers and could encourage investors to buy into this market.
On the other hand, Apple’s shares show that while the stock formed an all-time high at $199.62 in late 2023, the technical environment suggests trouble could be ahead for the stock price. The weekly chart is in the process of forming a double-top pattern off all-time highs and is closing in on the pattern’s neckline at $165.67. A break here would be considered technical confirmation for bears to target lower levels, with a price target generally based on the difference between the highest peak and the neckline, which is then extended from the breakout point to form a profit target.
Both stocks also remain above their 200-week simple moving averages. However, Apple is poised to converge and retest the upper edge of this dynamic value if the double-top pattern’s neckline is engulfed, with Microsoft diverging from the moving average.
Momentum?
The price of Apple shows that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests average losses are exceeding average gains after crossing below the 50.00 centreline. This tells us that the stock is in a phase of negative momentum and does not bode well for buyers, particularly as there is still room for the indicator to continue moving lower until the oversold area (0.00-30.00).
Regarding Microsoft's stock, early negative divergence from the RSI is displayed around the overbought area (100.00-70.00). This indicates that while price action may have shaped higher highs in line with its current trend, momentum is slowing for now. Does this mean we will see a reversal here like Apple? No, not necessarily. While negative divergence should not be overlooked, this may be a false reversal signal or just a signal that the market is pausing for breath before pushing on to fresh all-time highs. Investors will want to see the RSI explore lower levels below the overbought area and maybe probe beneath the 50.00 centreline to confirm upside momentum is weakening for this stock.
Given the above, there is some uncertainty with both stocks at the moment.
Volume?
Volume studies for Apple’s stock remained consistent since early 2023, fluctuating around the 20-period average. For investors who focus on volume, there is not much to go on right now. What could excite investors, nevertheless, is a breakout above the average volume at a point when support enters the market or price breaks above resistance. One thing to bear in mind is that average periods of volume tend to be followed up with phases of increased volume and possible price breakouts.
It is clear for Microsoft that although price continues to make higher highs, volume is unsupportive. It is trading below average volume (20 periods). Investors who analyse volume are unlikely to be willing buyers at this point. An uptrend that lacks volume suggests that investors lack enthusiasm for the stock and that this is perhaps a weak rally we’re seeing.
Price Action?
Sticking to basics, we can see that both Apple and Microsoft benefit from nearby potential trendline support. Apple, at its current price, has support in the $155.00 area. This consists of trendline support drawn from the low of $53.15 and another potential trendline resistance turned potential support drawn from the high of $182.94.
However, for Microsoft's price, there is trendline support seen closer, taken from the low of $219.35.
Out of the two markets, Apple’s trendline support combination is the more attractive in terms of technical confluence.
Apple or Microsoft?
While opinions will differ on which stock has the greater potential, both appear worthy of attention.
According to Apple's technical position, it has room to continue moving lower to the double-top pattern’s neckline at $165.67. This, coupled with Apple’s trend being meaningfully weakened and the RSI trading below the 50.00 centreline (negative momentum), may cause technical analysts to deem this a bearish market for the time being. What is likely to attract bullish eyes, nonetheless, is the trendline support combination around $155.00 and the nearby 200-week simple moving average. However, bear in mind that at this point, technical selling will also be present on the back of the double-top neckline breach.
Although Microsoft is showing early negative divergence from the RSI, it is unlikely to be sufficient to draw in sellers right now and could remain overbought for prolonged periods. Should Microsoft form a correction and volume continue to slow, investors could buy the dip from trendline support. Both stocks have declining volume, yet both have the potential to see above-average volume, particularly if buyers step in at trendline supports.
So goes Apple so goes the market? The old wall street adage! so goes apple....
Were at a pretty interesting level.
Are market makers going to make this breakdown in apple easy?
A head & shoulders breakdown is now on watch for a confirmed break.
This does imply a decent down move and will undoubtedly weigh on markets if it happens.
Keep an eye on the second largest company in the world.
aapl short NASDAQ:AAPL looks quite bearish, been a long time and even apple court cases are making them loose money, lets hope for something good otherwise aapl can be back to 140$ zone
✅STOCK REVIEW: $AAPL General explanation:
- I have shorted the NASDAQ:AAPL yesterday
- Textbook perfect short, stage 3 topping
- It is forming a ledge and rolling over
Beware:
- AAPL can easily come back and be supported by institutions (e.g. move to the 200D SMA and still be shortable)
Some nuances:
- On the week of the 18MAR it couldnt even come to the 10WK MA and rolled over.
My style:
- Swing Style with holding periods of 4d to 1month. This is important in order to understand what I see.
AAPL: Time for PutsFirstly I'm a huge NASDAQ:AAPL fan when it comes to their products, however, I believe the time has come to buy some Put Options.
Trend Analysis
Utilizing the 1D chart, I found a double-top "M" pattern and at the time of this idea we are currently sitting a little under the second peak. The descent can be steep according to a macro-Fibonacci tool where the $125 share price rests around a 50% retracement level. Support at this level has been strong since May 2021.
I used two micro-Fibonacci tools to identify areas of minor support during the descent. I believe the use of both is necessary as some traders will be using the uptrend retracement (green) and others will use the downtrend retracement (red). I believe that there is a good possibility for reversal at the 61.8% downtrend Fib retracement as this level has been a key area of support and resistance since August 2021; see image below. It goes without saying that by the time the share price reaches this level, the double top pattern will already be considered valid so it's my opinion that a catalyst in the form of bad news will be required to see further declines.
Fundamental Analysis
According to the Q3 Earnings Call (Annual Report), Apple has only utilized 17.67% of its $90 billion dollar share repurchase program authorized in May '23. According to a later footnote, Apple repurchased $76.6 billion of its shares during 2023 which leads me to believe there is either a mistake in the report or that most of the $76.6 billion satisfies an earlier repurchase program. On the 10K form, see bottom of page 18 - note 1 and bottom of page 20.
Cash on-hand has increased by 27% since September 2022.
Current ratio (current assets/current liabilities) is 0.99 which is concerning from a financial standpoint. However, this is an improvement from September 2022 when its current ratio was 0.88.
Retained earnings, while still in a deficit, has improved by 93% since September 2022. These deficits were self-inflicted as Apple spent most of its net income on stock repurchases the last three years.
Sentiments
I didn't find anything that changed my opinion on the current market trend for Apple. While the company does appear to be improving it is still in a rough spot. The aggressive repurchasing of its own stock and placing itself into a deficit doesn't make sense to me as a long-term plan. I understand that companies will do this to raise their EPS and benefit their shareholders but it also says that the company doesn't plan on expanding in the foreseeable future.
APPLE Support Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
APPLE is going down
But the stock will soon
Hit a horizontal support of 166.24$
From where I will be expecting
A local bullish rebound
Buy!
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📈Mastering Stock Selection:A Journey to Long-Term Wealth💰Part1Interested in selecting high-quality stocks and growing your wealth through long-term investing? Today, I'll guide you through effective stock selection methods, including the top-bottom and bottom-top approaches. Remember, as Warren Buffett famously said, "The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient." 💼📈
Let's start with the top-bottom approach. First, you choose an economy, such as Indian, US, or UK. Next, select a sector within that economy, like Financial Services, IT, or Pharma. From there, narrow down to an industry within the sector, such as AI, Clean-technology, or Hardware. Finally, choose a company within the industry. Don't worry if it seems complex – I'll provide examples and guidance throughout. 💡🔍
Conversely, the bottom-top approach flips this order. We start by selecting a company, then move up to its industry, sector, and finally, the economy. 💼🔄
Let's put theory into practice with the top-bottom approach: (a random example)
1. Choose India as the economy.
2.Select the IT sector for its promising future.
3. Opt for AI as the industry due to its potential.
4. Select Infosys as a company.
Now, it's your turn! Share examples of top-bottom or bottom-top approaches in the comments for practice. 💬💡
In the upcoming discussions, we'll delve into the fundamentals of sector, industry, and company analysis. Don't worry—I'll explain everything from market cap and cash flow to return on equity (ROE). 📊✨
Target of likes (boosts): 25+ (if we achieve our target than I will make Part 2) 🎯🚀
Follow for more such ideas & learning content! 🔍
AAPL charted for 1Apr24I want to see an open above this floor
as well as above this trend line & will
hold calls up to 173
$AAPL - Double top!NASDAQ:AAPL A double top pattern seems to be playing out, and it's getting close to breaking down. I'm still expecting the price to reach the $157 to $145 area.👀
AAPL Wait For Selling The Chart make Double Top Chart Pattern . the Chart need Pull back Before it continue To go Down .
(AAPL) Daily Bull Gartley patternPrice is apparently locked in a Harmonic Range; the most profitable environment for harmonic traders.
From the July '23 top, price printed a 0.618AB=CD(orange) and immediately had a natural harmonic reaction(NHR); which is the high probability minimal reaction one should expect from a Type1 harmonic pattern entry. After turning and creating a false support level, price fell sharply towards the orange pattern's HOP(harmonic optimal price) to potentially setup a Type1.5 pattern entry. This process caused the printing of another 0.618AB=CD(blue); it's HOP also tested @167.54. Price rallied sharply constituting the end of both Type1 long trades. From this peak @182.34 price declines sharply and pushes towards the 1.13 fib extension; creating a pivot(this is a textbook picture of the 'failed wave' phenomena associated with the 1.13 extension). This retesting, turning process presented a Type2 long entry for both orange & blue patterns and resulted in an extreme impulse that touched all Type2 targets.
Price printed a Bear Shark pattern(red) when it touched the 0.886 retracement @194.52 and, after divergent topping action, carved out a major pivot. The move down to 180.17 in Jan. '24 completed the Type1 Bear Shark entry and printed a Bull 5-0 harmonic pattern(not plotted, but the PRZ box is there in red). After an initial reaction and retest of the PRZ price surged towards the pattern's Target1, but peaked just short of it. This notwithstanding, price reaching the core measurement of the past Bear Shark(red) triggered a Type2 short entry. The target for this entry was @169.54. After spending a month creating a false support level the bottom fell out and price went to target.
This process has created a Bull Gartley pattern(purple). This large pattern has a Bull Deep Crab pattern embedded within it(aqua). A Type1 long entry was triggered, but, after a NHR, price has reasserted itself to the downside; setting up the potential for a Type1.5 long entry. Note the gap down towards 170.40 and the retest. To my eyes, this action is a confirmation that we are likely in a Harmonic Range. Ideally, price would show a false support level here and create a trap-door bottom near 167.17. Instead, it might continue to consolidate here for a spell only to breakout to the upside. In both of those scenarios, a strong earnings report will propel price higher. There are a few other scenarios based on the upcoming earnings dynamics, but those must be assessed at that time. If I'm wrong and this sucker wants to go much lower, expect price to show a false support level here and breakout sharply to the downside; exacerbated by a poor earnings report.
A bona fide Harmonic Range has two phenomena at work within it that makes it so attractive to harmonic traders. Within the range, patterns will emerge subsequently; offering many trade opportunities. And, due to the nature of a range, the patterns will not only enjoy an incredibly high win rate, but will also yield outsized gains relative to the harmonic trading model in a vacuum.
I have plotted the least steeply inclined potential down trendline and remain on the sidelines awaiting a signal to go long. If a trade is triggered, my sights will be set towards the top of the range @194.52.
Apple Inc.Apple - price is on a massive area of support , but still is strong downtrend , momentum is strong too and its bearish , if price break below that area , than price will probably continue to go down even further. Valuation of the company is undervalued at this point.
AAPL on a wide view continues SHORTAAPL on the weekly continues to fall from a double top put in at 195 in July 23 and this past
January. China issues are looming with competition domestically within China, factory issues
and the recession. The hart shows an established trend down seeking support at the Fibonacci
level in blue. The predictive algo looking back an the regression line pattern forecasts a
continued fall through the fib zone into the 125 area. Indicators are all consistent with the
same. I have a deep respect for advanced mathematics and will comply with the forecast.
AAPL is a short and the little retrace up is an opportunity to add to my positions.
APPLE Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
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1-16-2024
GREEN TrapZone with RED UMVD. Price sliding as US MSI also points to weakening in the market. Hold On to You Hats I Say :)
Appl Long 4HrDecided to go long on AAPL on the 4HR chart all my tools and indicators have lined up. i believe we could see a retracement to 179 potentially 180 we could hit 185 if we pull up quickly or have some volitility
nasdaqThe provided code is an implementation of a grid strategy in Pine Script, a programming language specific to TradingView. Here's a breakdown of the code:
Strategy Settings: The code starts with defining the strategy parameters such as the strategy name, overlay option, pyramiding rule, quantity type, initial capital, currency, and commission settings.
Input Configuration: The code defines several input variables that control the behavior of the strategy. These inputs include options for using auto bounds or manual bounds, selecting the bound source (recent High & Low or Simple Moving Average), lookback period for auto bounds, deviation for auto bounds, and upper and lower bounds for manual bounds. There is also an input for the number of grid lines in the strategy.
Function to Calculate Grid Bounds: The f_getGridBounds function is used to calculate the upper and lower bounds of the grid. It takes inputs such as bound source, lookback period, deviation, and whether to calculate the upper or lower bound. If the bound source is set to "Hi & Low", the function calculates the bounds based on the highest high or lowest low in a specified lookback period. If the bound source is set to "Average", the function calculates the bounds based on a Simple Moving Average with the specified lookback period. The deviation parameter adjusts the bounds either outward or inward.
Function to Build Grid: The f_buildGrid function is responsible for constructing the grid. It takes inputs such as the lower bound, grid width, and the number of grid lines. The function iteratively adds the grid lines to an array using the lower bound and width.
Function to Get Nearest Grid Lines: The f_getNearGridLines function is used to find the indices of the nearest grid lines above and below a specified price. It takes the grid line array and the price as inputs and iterates through the array to find the relevant indices.
Variable Declarations: Several variables are declared to store the current upper and lower bounds, grid width, grid line array, order status for each grid line, and the nearest grid lines to the current price.
Grid Trading Logic: The main logic of the strategy is implemented in a for loop. It checks if the current price is below a grid line, there is no open order for that grid line, and it is not the last grid line. If these conditions are met, a buy order is placed for the corresponding grid line. Similarly, if the price is above a grid line and it is not the first grid line, a sell order is placed if there is an open order for the previous grid line. This logic allows the strategy to buy and sell at the grid lines.
Dynamic Grid Bounds: If the auto bounds option is enabled, the code updates the upper and lower bounds, grid width, grid line array, and nearest grid lines based on the current market conditions. This allows the grid to adapt to changing price levels.
Overall, this code provides a framework for implementing a grid trading strategy in TradingView using Pine Script. It allows for customization in terms of grid configuration, bounds calculation, and adaptability to market conditions.
AAPL charted for 28MarRe-entry for AAPL discussed in the video. Took the trade earlier but didn't hold, even though I wasn't really given a signal to stop out.
AAPL still defending key supportAAPL is retesting a key area of weekly timeframe support and holding well. This level remains on watch.
Apple - Go Long NowHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Apple.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
In 2019 Apple prefectly retested the previous all time high and started creating a solid rising channel formation. As we are speaking Apple stock is once again retesting the lower support of the channel which is perfectly lining up with previous resistance now turned support. If we see bullish confirmation on the smaller timeframes, I am looking for new long setups on Apple.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Apple and Berkshire: Understanding the Dynamics of a StrategicUnveiling the Magnificent Seven: Analyzing Berkshire's Relationship with Apple and the Tech Giant's Future Prospects
The term "Magnificent Seven" encapsulates a prestigious group of megacap companies valued collectively at around $13 trillion. These titans represent approximately one-quarter of the S&P 500 index and over one-tenth of all publicly traded stocks by market capitalization.
Among the illustrious members of the Magnificent Seven are Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. Remarkably, Berkshire Hathaway holds a stake in only one of these esteemed companies. Under Warren Buffett's stewardship, Berkshire initiated its investment in Apple during the first quarter of 2016, gradually elevating it to the conglomerate's largest holding. Nevertheless, Berkshire divested approximately 10 million shares of Apple in the fourth quarter of the preceding year, sparking speculation about potential further sell-offs in 2024.
Despite the recent reduction in Berkshire's Apple holdings, Warren Buffett's favorable sentiment toward the tech giant remains steadfast. He previously lauded Apple as a "better business" compared to any other company within Berkshire's portfolio. Such sentiment likely endures, as evidenced by Berkshire's substantial 43% allocation to Apple within its $372 billion stock portfolio as of the fourth quarter's conclusion, indicating a resolute conviction in the investment.
However, Berkshire's decision to trim its Apple shares may be influenced by concerns raised by analysts like Jordan Klein at Mizuho. Issues such as sluggish iPhone sales in China and the introduction of the Digital Markets Act (DMA) in Europe have cast shadows of uncertainty over Apple's future revenue streams. The DMA mandates digital platform operators to accommodate third-party app stores and alternative payment options, potentially impinging on Apple's revenue channels.
Investors eagerly await Berkshire's first-quarter trading activities, slated for disclosure no later than May 15th through a Form 13F filed with the SEC. Until then, investors must contemplate whether Apple remains a compelling investment opportunity at its current valuation amid prevailing market conditions.
Apple boasts a significant advantage in brand authority, a testament to its engineering prowess. By seamlessly integrating captivating hardware with exclusive software, Apple crafts a distinctive user experience highly sought after by consumers. This allure is further heightened with the proliferation of Apple devices, endowing the company with considerable pricing power. Notably, last year, the average iPhone commanded three times the price of the average Android smartphone, according to eMarketer.
This brand authority has propelled Apple's dominance across various consumer electronics segments. Leading global smartphone shipments last year, Apple also clinched top positions in tablet and smartwatch shipments, alongside a noteworthy fourth place in personal computer shipments. Recognizing the intermittent nature of hardware purchases, Apple strategically diversified its offerings with a suite of complementary services, effectively capitalizing on its expansive user base, which now exceeds 2.2 billion devices.
However, Apple encountered a setback in the first quarter of fiscal 2024, ending Dec. 31, 2023, reporting lackluster financial results. While revenue edged up 2% to $119.5 billion, robust services performance was offset by declining sales in the iPad and Wearables categories. The services segment witnessed notable expansion, propelled by robust advertising, streaming video, and cloud storage revenues. Additionally, bolstered by share buybacks and the ascendancy of high-margin services, gross margin surged by 290 basis points, with GAAP earnings spiking 16% to $2.18 per diluted share.
Despite these gains, a concerning trend emerged in China, where sales plummeted by 13% in the December quarter, with iPhone sales slipping further by 24% in the subsequent six weeks of 2024. This contrasts sharply with Huawei's remarkable 64% surge in sales, posing a formidable challenge in the region. CEO Tim Cook remains sanguine about China's long-term prospects but acknowledges the need for vigilance, given its significant contribution, constituting about 17% of Apple's revenue.
Looking ahead, Grand View Research anticipates a 6% annual growth rate in the consumer electronics market through 2030. Moreover, mobile application sales, mobile wallet revenue, and digital ad spending are forecasted to experience substantial growth rates of 14%, 28%, and 15% annually, respectively, during the same period. These markets present pivotal opportunities for Apple, with the App Store alone contributing about one-third of its services revenue.
Despite Wall Street's bullish outlook, forecasting a 5.8% annual sales growth and 8.3% annual earnings per share growth over the next five years, concerns linger regarding Apple's current valuation, standing at 27.4 times earnings. Moreover, challenges such as dwindling iPhone sales in China and potential regulatory impacts on App Store sales in Europe inject further uncertainty. Given these considerations, prudent investors may opt to exercise caution with Apple's stock, with a potential inclination towards reducing exposure if already invested.
