Oversold on Monthly chartMonthly CCI and RSI are showing highly oversold in the history of ARKK. Price is at 50 Monthly moving average. There should be a good bounce from these levels.Longby redNinja990
Lets Talk ARKK Weekly Baby! Capitulation! One of the most important chart patterns is the buying and selling climax. A classic example of the pattern, in the form of a potential selling climax (S/C) is showing up in the daily and weekly charts of ARKK. Climaxes are exhaustion patterns, they develop as the last needful seller (weak hands) capitulates and hits the bid. Sellers are essentially exhausted. 1) Selling climaxes exhaust the available supply and often mark an important change in the market state. a. Even if they don't mark the end of a trend, they often lead to a period of consolidation. It is not unusual to see a trading range develop after the completion of the secondary test. b. Climaxes are fractal, appearing in literally every time frame. c. Climaxes appear after a long period of trend. 2) Climaxes typically appear concurrently with terrible news flow. a. Late last week I overheard an obviously frustrated fund manager on Bloomberg state that "I'm liquidating and going back to the real fundamentals." Down nearly 60% over the course of the last year he, and many other investors were finally throwing in the towel. 3) Climax patterns occur on extremely heavy volume. a. A clear reversal bar (often a key reversal) is typically evident. b. But modern climaxes can take several days to complete. c. Often the liquidated shares are distributed from weak hands, to strong hands. d. The new buyers are not necessarily long term investors and they often take advantage of the reaction rally to take trading profits. 4) There is often a sharp rally just prior to the selling climax. Wyckoff labeled this as preliminary demand (P/D), a point where strong handed longs are beginning to accumulate shares. The P/D is an alert to begin monitoring for a selling climax. In the case of ARKK, this P/D warning did not occur. 5) Immediately following the S/C is the automatic rally (A/R). Since sellers have been exhausted, the A/R can often cover significant ground. Buyers of the selling climax often use this rally to sell a portion of the position built during the climax. 6) In the case of ARKK, there is a micro test of the S/C. The successful test set the stage for the A/R. 7) A much larger secondary test separated in time must be completed before the S/C can be trusted. Its important to note WHERE the behavior is occurring. In past entries, I have talked about building confluences of support and resistance to create zones. These zones can then be monitored for patterns that are consistent with a change in trend. 1) Price is resting at the bottom of both short term and intermediate trend channels. I generally view channel tops and bottoms as more reliable indicators of overbought and oversold than most of the momentum suite of indicators. The two channel bottoms formed a support confluence in the 61.81 to 63.63 area. 2) There is a clear three wave move (A-B-C) that can be used to generate Fibo extension targets. I use the A-B-C pattern to generate three targets, 1, 1.382, 1.618%. The distance is then projected from the top of C. In this case the tool generated equality with the first wave at 63.38. You can use the Trend Based Fib Extension tool in MV to generate the calculation. 3) The three levels (two channels and 1 Fibo) produce a support confluence in the area between 61.81 and 63.38. This is the zone where the S/C occurred. Most momentum oscillators are deeply oversold. I have included the weekly RSI to illustrate. Note the curl higher. Odds are good that the selling in ARKK is essentially exhausted now. My guess, given the broader backdrop, is that it will form a trading range lasting several weeks, maybe months that will allow strong hands to redistribute shares before beginning a fresh markdown. But, opinion not withstanding, I will follow the evidence and clues as they build. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur. Editors' picksEducationby CMT_AssociationUpdated 9292484
ARKK Clarification and UpdateAfter reading the comments in yesterday's ARKK post I realized that I needed to clarify the post, particularly in light of what, in retrospect, was an overly enthusiastic title. I had hoped to call attention to the anatomy of an important price behavior that is important across a wide variety of assets and time frames. I also intended to highlight how I use charts to approximate where these structures might develop. Instead I gave some the impression that I thought the selling climax would mark a long term low. That was not my intent. I will be more precise in the future. Finally, while I think ARKK represents a great example of how a selling climax develops, I don't think it's bear market is over. I made that point in the final paragraph. ARKK has a tremendous amount of work to do before the trend could be changed from bearish to bullish. Thanks to all who posted in the comments. There are some great observations and questions. I would encourage you to read them. The community here is (for the most part) pretty cool with many very knowledgeable participants. Clarifications: 1) Selling climaxes clear out the immediately available supply. This does not mean that new supply can't come out. 2) Selling climaxes typically stall the market for a period of time, and often result in a trading range. But they can fail, and when they fail rapidly, which they often do in bear markets, the failure says very bad things about the asset. 3) This is why climax structures MUST BE SUCCESSFULLY TESTED before they represent anything other than short term capitulation. A micro test isn't enough for more than a few days, perhaps a quick trade. This was point 7 in the post. In retrospect, I should have made it point 1. 4) A successful test must be well separated in time from the initial selling climax. I prefer to see them play out over several weeks. 5) In other words, the huge volume and the reversal bar are only a warning that things may be changing. But, without the completed test, it is only conjecture and does not constitute (at least in my opinion) it’s a data point, not a tradable event. 6) In short, YOU MUST HAVE A COMPLETED TEST before deciding that a low of any consequence has been made. 7) I ended the piece by stating that the selling in ARKK is essentially exhausted now. I should have written it…. Essentially exhausted FOR now. 8) Finally, the only reason I monitor ARKK is the individual names in the portfolio. Funds are made up of many individual assets. Individual assets may be in very different positions in their trends than a given fund, index or market. ARKK holds many names that might eventually hold interest for me. A final point, I think the fundamental/macro influences on equity are quite negative (just my opinion, but I am wrong a lot). Given that, its difficult for me to believe that the risk reward for a long position in ARKK is advantageous or that it will survive the testing process. But, I will follow the evidence and reevaluate if a successful test of the selling climax and subsequent bullish behavior develops. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur. by CMT_Association5522
How did I miss this HUGE 5 star breakout for ARK Innovations?!?!Oh wait... Inverted scale again guys... so sorry.Shortby Badcharts118
ARKK - Buying BS, but make moneySeriously, I just can't take her serious... But OK, she's providing opportunity to make some cash. Going long after today is OK. Just sell after a couple days §8-) #makemoneywithshLongby Tr8dingN3rd3
ARKK break down from a descending wedgeI would like to see bullish momentum break off this low, may not happen but its a set up I like to see Longby jay-hook0
ARKKDaily Report ARKK looking bullish in the short term. ARRK has a breakout on the RSI so it looks like it is headed to the 91 resistance level but before it can do that it has to break the downward blue trend line. I want to note that ARKK is still in a bear market so any run up will most likely be met with selling.Longby pravenmoorthy4
$ARKK - Highest weekly volume in its existenceVolume is a truth indicator. Last week's volume was the highest in the history of $ARKK. I think we have found the floor. Price action today is likely a lot of shorts covering. I would expect to consolidate around these levels for a few months before any major upside movement, but this is a good level to start adding to your growth portfolio.Longby WhiteCollarDad5
ARKK: IS TIME TO BUY?In my opinion start to accumulate in this range is a good bet for the long term.Longby yellow_ag0
Trading Psychology 101If you're new to the stock market like me, you will quickly learn this lesson if you haven't already. My lesson was a little more violent when VIAC took a nose dive. I went straight from Euphoria directly to Capitulation. That was fun. One could argue that Woods has been targeted by Wallstreet Elite, very similar to the legendary degen Bill Hwang. But I quickly learned that was just my Despondence and Depression. If your in the same boat (titanic) as I was. Don't get down on yourself too much or you will miss the best opportunity yet to come. Biggest problem facing new investors (including myself) is finding the bottom or learning to trade down. Good luck out there. Trade safe. by SPYvsGME2216
ARKK setting up for a reversalArkk has pierced the 200wma similar to how it did during covid. Can it go lower? yes.. but when it reverses I would expect it to go up at the same rate it went down into the $120 area. I would not count on ath since a lot of the names that rallied hundreds of percent after covid in this ETF are 80% down and don't look like they will get to ath anytime soon.Longby Yogigolf6
Arkk - at amazing confluence - should be bottoming Jim Cramer just came on and said sell it all, right at the bottom, perfect. Huge capitulation wick, I think it's time to go long. Longby ghengiskahnspermshot0
Rolled: ARKK March 18th 103.22 Short Put to April 14th 103... for a .10 credit. Comments: Rolling this out on strength to lock in the gain experienced by the 103.22 (which it quickly gave up during the day), improve the strike slightly, and to keep some extrinsic in it. I'm still looking at the deep in-the-money short put as functionally long stock that I'm short strangling with the March 18th 59.22/81.22 to reduce cost basis. I've collected a total of 22.68 in credits, so my break even is 103 (the short put strike) minus 22.68 (total credits collected) or 80.32 relative to where the stock closed today at 69.03, so I still have some cost basis reduction work to to do.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 1
Be on the right side of change. Tuesday, Jan. 25 ARK sumitBe on the right side of change is a fancy title for an investment company that lost 23-25% of the value of their 4 main funds in the past 16 trading days! No need to say that these funds had lost 17-34% of their values in 2021. I think it is crucial to be on the right side of the change, otherwise...! One of my favorite Youtubers is Ozzy man, he has a series called Destination F..! It is a compilation of failures, he usually says: Someone is definitely ending up in destination F regarding their employment status over this. (being on the wrong side of the change) Market sentiment has changed a lot and those who are on the right side of the change are sitting on piles of cash or shorted the market..! Each candle shows 1 year. Shortby Moshkelgosha5512
ARKK - Hydrophones Picking Up Crush DepthNoise has given way to a creaking Hull. This JUNK ETF was doomed, it took some time, but our $64 PO is coming into view. Cathy has gone from Hero to Goat with her JPM cohort - Tom Lee, the other Carnie. _____________________________________________ I detest lying shills.by HK_L61449
cathie generational imo generational bottom is in for ark innovation after a 60% brutal wipe... perfect r/rLongby Cryptadict0
ARKK Bounce - Call SpreadARKK bounce off of bottom of channel, retrace to mid channel/LVN/fib level. Oversold long term and short term stochastics and oversold RSI PT #1 = $88, PT #2 = $95. Using call spread 25 Feb 2022 +BOT C85 / -SELL C110 for $1.28 debit AMEX:ARKKLongby 4mm41
$ARKK was my best performer today....$ARKK was my best performer today....just an observation.by cwmetz0
ARKK Monthly UpdateUpdate on ARKK Monthly Reloading. Looking like there might be some more pain in bound. MACD is still pushing down and its looking like it could hit the MA at the bottom of the fib channel. It's easy to kick ARKK while it's down but you can't ignore its past wins and its potential to win again.by Pyrat82Updated 1
ARKK parbolic ARkk update I posted this chart originally in March 2021, linked below, we have now reached the first corrective target. by TechChartMarkUpdated 4
Do you know how hard is to revrse a 55% decline?I have written more than 20 analyses on ARKK since 2021, none were Bullish! I even compare it to the NET NET fund during the .com Bubble..! To all those who are loyal to ARK, now you need +122% to get to the same level Of February 2021..! This number will be increased to 200-300% in the next 2 months which makes it almost impossible! The celebrity fund manager will soon be overthrowing..! It pretty much smells like 2008..! Reviewing the comments below my previous ark post will be fun these days..! I might have limited knowledge about the market, but I'm confident that I understand 2 things: 1- Bubble 2- Turning points Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site. Shortby MoshkelgoshaUpdated 3314
$ARKK AnalysisWeekly 200 ema MUST be reclaimed Again, $70 must hold for bulls to have a shot at a reversal this week .786 retrace confluence with $60 support levelby BensStocks_0
$ARKK AnalysisA=C extension confluence at $70 support level If $70 fails to hold, $60 test will follow Cheap can always get cheaperShortby BensStocks_3