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ARKK trade ideas

Inverse Head and ShouldersLong entry level is a break of the neckline with a trend to the upside. After this has happened, a stop can be placed somewhere below the neckline. If one were to enter early, then under the right shoulder (RS) can be a support level. It is not super advisable to enter before a break of the neckline, as it may not break it in the near future. We all take our own chances and that is what makes the world go around (o: An inverse head and shoulders, also called a "head and shoulders bottom", is similar to the standard head and shoulders pattern, but inverted: with the head and shoulders top used to predict reversals in downtrends. This pattern is identified when the price action of a security meets the following characteristics: the price falls to a trough and then rises; the price falls below the former trough and then rises again; finally, the price falls again but not as far as the second trough. Once the final trough is made, the price heads upward, toward the resistance found near the top of the previous troughs. Inverse head and shoulders is a pattern that does well in a bull market. Head and shoulder tops do best in a bear market. No recommendation.
AMEX:ARKK
by lauralea
Rolling (IRA): ARKK Oct 15th 100 Short Put to Nov 19th 104... for a 1.50/contract credit. Comments: With the 100's at greater than 50% max (they're worth .84 here), rolling out to the November monthly for a realized gain and a credit. The implied isn't as good as it was, but is still >35%; otherwise, I'd just leave it alone or take profit and move on. Relatedly, since the implied isn't fantastically great, keeping my units the same instead of adding, keeping buying power free for a higher volatility environment. Total credits collected of 3.52 (See Post Below) + 1.50 = 5.02 versus a current short put value of 2.38, so I've realized profits of 5.02 - 2.38 = 2.64 ($264)/contract so far.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by NaughtyPines
ARKK: Reasons Why ARKK May Move Higher...and TargetsThe price seems to have finished the bottom of the second leg down for a possible triangle pattern. I am looking for this scenario because the price reacted very well near the support area between $ 113.30 - $ 114.60. As long as the model is very big in time we will be focused on the targets within the model and after that we can look for more bullish continuity. Targets: $118.80 $121.70 $126 and higher... Thank you and Good Luck!
AMEX:ARKKLong
by KlejdiCuni
10
$ARKK: Cathie vs Burry, Which Side Will You Choose?The 120 level on ARKK continues to act as a very prominent level. What would you do? ARKK 120 features a prominent low volume node and now we have a chance to meet this level with the falling trendline that starts from the Feb high to the June 2021 lower high. Together these forces will meet and ultimately decision in the coming weeks. I'll let time tell me which way I'll play this one but will the Russell 2000 be a canary in the coal mine or will it successfully squeeze bears like it's been known to do. You may also look to the Fed and forex markets to see how the dollars role may play apart. Good luck traders!
AMEX:ARKK
by Fox_Technicals
2
Rolling (IRA): ARKK September 17th 102 to October 15th 100... short put for a 1.08/contract credit. Comments: With the 30-day implied remaining fairly decent at 43.2% and the September 17th 102's at around 50% max, rolling them down and out to the October 100's for a 1.08/contract credit here. I originally collected 2.44/contract for the 102's, (See Post Below), so have collected 2.44 + 1.08 = 3.52 versus a current short put value of 2.40/contract (i.e., I realize a gain of 1.12 ($112)/contract).
AMEX:ARKK
by NaughtyPines
Talking about Michael Burry's $ARKK betWe all heard that Michael Burry just disclosed his short position in Cathie's ARK fund. I see people take this as personal and sexist and such. My take is this is just simply Michael's bet anticipating the rise of inflation. Inflation mostly damages growth stocks, and Cathie's ARK comprises of growth stocks. Looking in to Scion Asset Management fund, he holds longs such as $GOOGL and $WMT, names that do not care about inflation. In short: Michael Burry plans to take advantage of inflation catalyst and short high growth stocks.
AMEX:ARKK
by kidze
No one buys ARKK tales anymore..!1000% gain in the past 5 years! (Feb 2016-Feb 2021) The monthly Price volume decreased 62% between March and July 2021. ARKK builds bearish patterns in higher (weekly and monthly timeframe) and YTD performance is negative (-6.45%)..! This happened while all major indexes were positive! A non-random walk hypothesis Martin Weber, a leading researcher in behavioral finance, has performed many tests and studies on finding trends in the stock market. In one of his key studies, he observed the stock market for ten years. Throughout that period, he looked at the market prices for noticeable trends and found that stocks with high price increases in the first five years tended to become under-performers in the following five years. Weber and other believers in the non-random walk hypothesis cite this as a key contributor and contradictor to the random walk hypothesis. Falsehood always preferred the tale to the truth— Sir Winston Churchill. Reference Article: www.jstor.org
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Moshkelgosha
2
Is ARKK and Cathie Woods time up? J.Powells' clock is ticking...Whether it is bitcoin, SPACs, shorted meme stocks, Tesla or other heavily priced in Growth stocks (High Price/Book value), all of these speculative assets have one common factor, that is the cheapness/availability of money. However, this may all change if in the next 2-3 readings inflation pressure are proven to be persistent. Relatively, will be a very in-detail idea, but bear with me. Firstly, before I get into analyzing other factors, as the chart shows, the current risk-reward ratio on ARKK is skewed towards the short side with a strategy of directly shorting ARKK, or buying OTM puts @105 or 80, with a stop-loss at 130. There are several fundamentals reasons for shorting ARKK: 1) The concentrated positions of ARKK into few names ark-funds.com as ARKK is an actively managed fund where on the way down it would become increasingly problematic for Cathie to cut losing positions, with a potential of a self-enforcing liquidity spiral. 2) The largest holdings such as Tesla are priced in heavily above the SPX price/earnings(Forward P/E =115, SPX P/E= current 35, historical 16, price/book value ratios(28 vs 4.7), which is simply unsustainable in terms of future expected returns, unless Tesla takes over the world, which simply won't happen by any stretch of the imagination. Granted there seems to be a trend continuation on Tesla, although it may as well be a trap if the FED changes the current course (a discussion will follow below). 3) In the last few weeks since the IPO of $HOOD, ARKKs correlation to bitcoin futures has been 60%, although historical correlation since 2017 is only 20%. It begs the question as ARKK accumulates more and more names whose value is directly derived from cryptocurrencies (Tesla, Robinhood, Coinbase, SQ and others), is holding ARKK roughly the same as holding bitcoin/cryptos as they are both primarily driven by the same factor? Well it all boils down to understanding the key factor, which as mentioned appears to be the cheapness/availability of money. The question is when will money stop being cheap as it is today? The long drawn out debate will the FED taper, or even worse when will the FED start hiking. To understand how the FED sets their policy, it is based on whether or not they are fulfilling their congress given mandates which are price stability (inflation within target range) and maximum employment (unemployment at or below the long term rate ~5%). Currently based on the spot rates, the market is pricing in that there will be 1 hike in 2020 (Forward 1 year rate in 1 year, ~0.36) and roughly 2 more hikes in 2023. With balance sheet tapering (where the FED unloads bonds to the market in return for cash, or does not buys/tapers as much assets), the current projections are within the start of next year. However, plans may change as they quickly did back in 2019. From this chart it can be clearly observed that during the last policy normalization in 2016 (snipboard.io), the FED only started hiking once unemployment went below 5% (roughly the long term unemployment rate). In a normal environment where the FED isn't trapped by their QE policies, where both inflation and real growth rate are far exceeding their targets as stated by Taylor rule(nominal rates = neutral rate + inflation + 0.5 * (inflation - inflation target ) + 0.5 * (real gdp growth - potential gdp growth), the FED is bound to hike. But they've used the maximum employment "excuse" to not do so. This is why the recent reading where unemployment went down to 5.4% from 5.9% is scary. This meant that the fed is closer to fulfilling their maximum employment mandate, however they are far beyond their inflation target rate of about 2% =>>>> implying higher probability of more earlier hawkish policy to also fulfill the price stability mandate, because they don't have the maximum employment excuse any longer. Based on the recent readings (services PMI 64 vs 60, unemployment and todays inflation) bonds quickly reacted The current 5 year average (breakeven) inflation expectations are back within the inflation target of around 2% (2.5%-forecasting premium ~0.5%, snipboard.io), although this rate can hardly be trusted any longer as the FED holds roughly 1/5 th of the TIPS market. This is my attempt of shortening this long story, which relates to ARKK, as ARKK experienced two drawdowns in March and May of ~-30 to -20% during the last episodes of inflation fears when the 10 year yields went to 1.75%. This suggests that ARKK is extremely sensitive to yields above 1.5% given its growth factor exposure. A yield steepening caused by less quantitative easing and more likely rate hikes, certainly implies a choppy market ahead (at best) where value is gaining above growth (). SPX at these levels has returned nearly 20% for the year 2021 so far (4450/3750 -1 = 18.5% +~2% div yield), which is more than a standard deviation above the average of ~8%. It is simply unsustainable to continue the current fiscal and monetary policy stances that has driven asset prices higher mainly due to the multiples expansion, without mitigating the inflation risks that are bound to appear. Thank you for following along! If you have any questions or points to debate, make sure to leave them in the comments. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well-informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels. The QQQs in a wedge : Large caps, SPX futures getting heated up:
AMEX:ARKKShort
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
2
ARKK ANALYSIS 13.08.2021Hello Traders, here is a full analysis for this asset. The entry will be taken only, if all rules of your trading plan are satisfied. Therefore I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if all of your rules are satisfied. Leave your thoughts in the comment section, I will reply to every single one of them. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
AMEX:ARKK
by basictradingtv
ARK Innovation ETF Fund Can Breakout To The UpsideTraders, There is a lot of media ta the moment talking about Cathie Wood's ARKK ETF reportedly seeing record short interest as investors turn against the fund. However if you look at the charts, they tell you a little different story. In fact of the short positions story is correct, we might see a short squeeze. The price is right at the breakout point and from this level, it can move to much levels in the fcp zone. So watch the current levels and look for indications on the chart. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
AMEX:ARKKLong
by vikinsa
6