CATERPILLAR SHORT 2 distinct possibilities, but the RR is great.
HIGHLY dependent on SnP and US30 ofcourse, broader market implications are always extremely important to keep an eye on.
Nonetheless, wouldn't be surprised to see the first position be a sweep of wicks and then retest of lows.
Second position would mean we sweep highs of wichs but also fill the gap above before we dump to retest lows.
Let's see.
NFA.
CAT trade ideas
[CAT] - Weekly - BearishATH liquidity PURGED.
RELs at $241.80 are too clean.
looking for a shift in market structure, with a break below the short term low at $225.56. Then looking at the bearish breaker acting as resistance, holding and pushing price down further.
Multiple inefficacies to the downside as targets and draws on liquidity.
Rising Wedges/DivergenceCAT had earnings this morning. I am not sure but I think something was not as expected in the earnings report.
Bearish Rising wedges noted.
A bearish crooked W noted that reached just beyond the 1.414.
Market opened as I type and I see price fell out of the small rising wedge at the top. Rising wedges are valid only after the bottom trendline is broken.
There is a bearish divergence between price action and the oscillator, RSI.
Good luck/No recommendation.
Price is above the .236 of the trend up.
Rectangle below price that may provide support.
CATERPILLAR? BearishThe head and shoulders pattern is a technical analysis chart pattern that signals a potential reversal in a stock's trend. It is considered bearish because it shows a peak (left shoulder), followed by a higher peak (head), followed by another peak that is lower than the head (right shoulder). The pattern is confirmed when the stock price falls below the support line drawn between the two low points of the pattern, known as the "neckline." This breakdown signals a potential trend reversal and is often associated with a bearish outlook for the stock.
Having an earnings date around the time of a head and shoulders pattern can add to the bearish sentiment and potentially lead to a drop in stock price. This is because an earnings release can potentially cause a large price movement, and if the earnings are not as strong as expected, it can add to the bearish momentum and drive the price further down. The head and shoulders pattern, along with a weak earnings report, can increase the likelihood of bearish price movements. However, it is important to note that other factors such as overall market conditions, company-specific news, and analyst recommendations can also impact stock price movements.
From a CAT to a Butterfly?And another one:
A New Year and a New CAT?
From what I see, CAT is forming a nice bullish flag here on the monthly timeframe. There has been a nice back test on the weekly timeframe which gives me conviction in the pattern I see forming.
Using technical analysis to form a price target, I see a conservative price target of $285 to $300, with the potential to go to $325 plus.
Of course, this will not go straight up (because that would be too easy). Considering I did not have this stock on my watch list, I will be looking to get in by the end of this week.
If playing options, I would look for calls on a longer timeframe such as a few weeks out to a few months out. I would even say that this is a buy and hold (buying stocks or even something for retirement accounts).
If this goes the way I expect it to (up), this dirty caterpillar could turn into a beautiful money butterfly for us.
Of course, I know nothing and the market is the final judge. So don't trust me, do your own due diligence. Thanks.
From a CAT to a Butterfly?And Another One:
A New Year and a new CAT?
Seems like CAT is in a bullish flag here folks. This pattern is playing out on the monthly timeframe and a nice backtest has already occurred on the weekly timeframe. But don't worry there is still plenty of time to get in, considering that this is on a longer timeframe.
Using technical analysis to predict future price, we have a conservative estimate of $285 plus with the potential to go to $300 to $350. Of course it will not shoot straight up (because that would be too easy), but if we have patience this caterpillar could turn into a beautiful money butterfly for us.
Considering I did not have this on my watch list, I will be looking to get in fairly soon. Given that it is a new year, this could be a potential for a real long term play such as a retirement account. If this does do what I expect it to (go up), this is a long term play.
If playing options, I would look for those at least a few months out (if not a few weeks), so you will be able to take advantage of the move higher. Buying stock in this would be nice as well (if you have the money).
Again we never know what the market will do, so don't trust me. In fact, you should probably trust me less than a monkey making stock picks. But do your due dilligence.
Caterpillar Crawls to New HighsIndustrial stocks have outperformed in recent months as investors shift toward cyclicals. Today’s chart focuses on Caterpillar, a potential beneficiary of infrastructure spending in the U.S. and a recovery in China.
The first patterns are the pair of highs from the last two years. CAT challenged $237.90 (the peak from April 2022) several times in November before breaking through in December. The stock bounced at the same level early this year, which may suggest old resistance is new support. (See the small white arrows on the chart.)
Next is the June 2021 high of $246.69. Prices jumped through that level to a new high on Friday. They retested on Monday and are trying to hold it today. (Additionally, the weekly chart had a bullish outside candle.)
You also have a gap higher on October 27 after earnings and revenue beat estimates. Four weeks later, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA.
Finally, MACD has turned positive again after a month of declines.
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Tim's TradingView Fundamentals ChartHere's what I like to plot using the great charting tools available at TradingView:
1. Free Cash Flow
2. Price to Sales Ratio (PSR)
3. Average Basic Shares Outstanding
4. Long Term Debt (excl lease liabilities)
5. Total Revenues
6. Market Cap
From this I can assess how the structure of the company has changed over time.
For example: Did the company go into more debt over the last 5-10 years and reduce shares outstanding? If so, are they generating higher Free Cash Flow (FCF) overall as a percent of the market valuation (mkt cap)? I like to see the stability or growth in revenues overall and the valuation that the market is placing on the shares of the company. If you look at enough companies, you can see what the market is paying for and decide what you might be willing to pay for any company you are studying.
Sales growth can help cover up a lot of trouble from having a lot of debt, which seems obvious. A lack of sales growth can destroy any chances of ever being able to pay off debt or increase dividends, which means you wont pay as much for a company.
Looking at $CAT here: Compare to 2007 and you can see that debt is up $9 billion, Free Cash Flow is flat, shares outstanding are down 15%, and YET the stock valuation has TRIPLED over that time frame, which doesn't make a lot of sense to me.