EEM trade ideas
EEM Resuming Bull Market Started in 2016Emerging Markets (EEM) seem to be resuming the bull market that started in early 2016.
1) Recently broke out from downward channel
2) Broke out from alternative shorter term negative trend line
3) Is in the track to end the week confirming a bullish pivot, surpassing the last short term top.
Medium term objective is last major top the occurred in jan 18.
Long term objective is a major long term impulsive move with similar magnitude and duration of the jan 16 - jan 18 uptrend move.
Stop at the same level the EEM completed its pullback to the negative channel.
This Is an Important Chart..Look At The Money FlowEEM Emerging Market's is where the 2019 rally in stocks first took hold,
and it's strong price advance in the new year continues as the rally has already taken price back
to the old reaction highs of 2018.
A bullish potential breakout here, would be hugely important, and would send a strong signal
to the rest of the world that the economic crisis that was developing last year in these emerging markets,
may now have been abated, by strong central bank manipulation worldwide.
Leadership in the emerging markets EEM is clearly seen in the almost parabolic inflow
( shown here on chart) of money back into these developed markets, lead by China
as big money clearly sees the potential downside over-reaction in price in late 2018.
Does that same theory hold true now for the US, and European markets as well ?
Was the downside reaction last fall in stock prices too much,
for the fundamental realities now present in 2019 ?
EEM Last 41.65
THE_UNWIND
1/25/19
NEW YORK
OPENING: EEM FEB/APRIL 36/41/41/46 DOUBLE DIAGONAL... for a 1.22/contract credit.
Doing a smidge of defined risk, all-weather, broad market instrumentation here ... .
The metrics aren't much to look at, because they aren't static,* but here they are:
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect on Setup: $378/contract
Max Profit on Setup: $122
Delta: 3.48
Theta: 1.9
As far as intratrade management is concerned: Look to roll out the short straddle aspect on decrease in value/realized gain for a credit to at-the-money. Since the short straddle aspect is worth only 1.80 here, you're probably going to want to wait until something approaching 25% max (i.e., .45) before burning a roll. As far as the long strangle aspect is concerned, my tendency is to largely leave it alone unless the short straddle has moved significantly to one side or the other, at which time I generally look at recentering the long strangle via rolling.
Look to take profit at 25% of what you'd get were this a static iron fly with risk one to make one metrics (in this case, it's a 5-wide with a risk one to make one setup paying 2.50 with a 25% max of .63 or so) and then reset the setup anew.
* -- The overall risk of the trade can potentially diminish over time on roll of the short straddle body for additional credits and/or adjustments of the long strangle aspect to maintain max loss potential (the difference between the width of the spread and total credits received).
EEM Long Idea- Watching $42.17 on the weekly level to see if it is resistance
- If not, EEM could be poised to jump meaningfully back above that 200DMA (this last occurred in 2017)
ISHARES MSCI EMERGING INDEX FUND (EEM): A Lower Low Until S1?Find Winning Trades In Seconds >> efcindicator.com (Special Discount)
ISHARES MSCI EMERGING INDEX FUND (EEM): A Lower Low Until S1 Is Expected.
EEM- Picking up for weekly DTL breakSo, its been a pretty clear down trend line on the weekly chart. For charting purposes, the RSI/MACD seem to be rounding up as well as the DTL break. At this point i'm using the 20 m.a as reference, as it did have a fail break out prior. In addition, the volume as at least increased with this attempt to break out. Lastly, if dollar keeps falling (?) it should be supportive to some degree. Just my thoughts.
EEM bearish strategyThe downtrend keeps strong in the Emerging Markets, following the also bearish Chinese stock market (FXI). Any price action in the EEM between the 50 days and 100 days moving average is a good entry point to sell, minimizing the risks in the downtrend direction. Stop loss around the 200 moving average.
Emerging Markets almost at bottom.EM correcting will be big. Inverse positions here may be lucrative for now.
EEM Stuck Below MAEEM is trending in a down-up counter trend. It has failed over the last 8 months to close above its Moving-Average on a weekly basis. I am using the 16-day Moving Average (representing 3 weeks +1 of trading days), but you can play with the period and you will see similar results.
EEM is currently testing close to its 16-day Moving Average and near the top of its channel resistance line. This is telling me that there is a strong possibility for the price to drop further down over the next week or two.
I think taking a sell-limit at $39.00 with a buy-stop at $40.61 (its 16-day Moving Average), and a take-profit at $37.58 (a previous resistance level tested) is the way to play this trend trade.
Emerging markets ETF breaking out of bearish channel $EEM $JSEThe iShares MSCI Emerging markets ETF has been in a bearish channel for the most part of 2018. Finally seeing a break out of both the channel as well as horizontal resistance above $41.63. The end of 2018 can get rather interesting for Emerging markets. Looking for a first target +- $44 which will coincide with the 200dma and prior horizontal resistance. Tough year for emerging markets.. but it might end off a little better
I am bullish on EEMEEM just broke 50 day for the first time after quite a while.
I think the downside wave is finished, as wave 5 reached the 1.618 extension of wave 3 perfectly. If price in the next few days breaks above upside wave 1 I think it is a great time to go long, because wave 3 is usually the strongest and most impulsive wave.
The downside wave 5 also hit and bounced at the 200 weak moving average and the yearly pivot points S1.
Targets for this long trade is drawn on the chart.
Invalidation of this trade is the break down of previous low ~37
Stay safe traders!
Emerging Markets may lead the way up.Emerging markets they have been battered heavily in the last year.
(skip this if you don't want my fundamental take)
The Fed interest hikes have caused US Dollar Strength and a large amount of $ denominated EM debt is becoming unpayable. Along with the Trump Tariffs, this has caused much volatility overseas. The US is making a strong attempt to disrupt international markets and maintain dollar reserve status / supremacy. A strong dollar also helps with the USG running high budget deficit. However I believe it is a short-term gambit that will accelerate de-dollarization around the world. Indeed, even Europe is turning away from the USD, Oil (Iran) is being traded heavily off the dollar system. That said, in order to de-dollarize, one has to first sell or default on dollar based assets, causing dollar based deflation.
Very long term, I think the US Dollar is toast. But meanwhile, it is very strong and a strong deflationary wave is hitting the world.
I'm watching for signs of this deflation turning, I think a relief rally MAY be starting, especially after Powell's comments yesterday. By being above its 50ma, I believe EEM is a stronger chart than US Stocks (QQQ SPY etc). EEM may lead the way in a risk-on, bear market rally.
On the charts, there is a massive trendline resistance to face. It would be a breakout to buy. I do have a small EDC position already, bought two days ago, that's already positive. Hoping for a breakout, but also have break-even stops.
China (FXI) has a similar, very interesting chart setup.
Will the real EM bear please stand upI previously wrote that there was a probability that we might get a real EM bear. At the time I put the probability as very low. Now I have upgraded it to my operating thesis and have positioned myself for it.
Still bearish... for a while - EEMI hate doing pure technical analysis but that 1-year moving average bending down while the longer MA's are converging just looks too much like a mean-reverting move to be ignored
EEM: Daily buy signal$EEM has now flashed a buy signal, together with $SPY, and offers a great chance to go long with low risk. Emerging markets might benefit from the rally in oil which I foresee here.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
EEM trendlineI'm not so sure that 37 is the target... I can see it going to 33 if the rest of the market continue showing weakness.
EEM - RSI In Oversold Territory?On support
Wedge height is massive, the price target is long-term 70 up to 80
