Update: EWZ December 2026 32 Covered CallHere, starting to break my EWZ position (See Post Below) into its constituent pieces.
The first piece involves shares I acquired way back at 31.65/share. (Ugh). Rather than go back and calculate trade to date break even, I'm going out far in duration to sell the short call at or above my break even. Sometimes, you have to go way longer dated than you'd like, but I'm fine with devoting some buying power to this, particularly since EWZ pays a fairly decently dividend, albeit only twice a year.
The remaining legs are the January 17th 26 short put -- on which I'm pretty sure I'll be assigned shares, and the January 17th 23 short put, which is in-the-money by .50 or so. On assignment, I'll look to sell the call at the strike at which I was assigned and go from there ... .
EWZ trade ideas
Opening (IRA): EWZ Oct 17th 26/45 Short Call Vertical... for a 1.13 credit.
Comments: I'm fairly certain that I'm going to be assigned on my January 17th 26 short put, so am going out to October to sell a spread with the short leg at the 26 strike that pays at least 1.00. The reason I do this (sell a call for at least 1.00), is that this enables me to roll the short call down a strike by 1.00 without giving up profit potential if I need to. The 26 short call aspect of this spread will become the short call aspect of an October 17th 26 covered call, with the covered call setup having a break even of the strike at which I was assigned (26) minus the 1.13 in credit I got paid for this spread or 24.87.
Because I haven't been assigned shares yet and short calls are generally verboten in a cash secured account like an IRA, I've had to pay a few bones (.05 to be exact), to define the risk of the short call. I also had to pay a debit that is equal to the width of the spread (19.00) minus the credit received of 1.13 or 17.87 for the spread. I'm fine with this, since this buying power will eventually free up when I get assigned.
Naturally, the October expiry is extremely long-dated. I'm fine with this here, since EWZ pays a fairly decent dividend, albeit only in June and December.
Opening (IRA): EWZ Feb 28th 22.5 Short Put... for a .51 credit.
Comments: After closing my Feb 17th 23 for a small profit, opening up a position at a strike slightly lower than what I just had on, attempting to pick up shares at the lowest price the market will allow. Had to use the weeklies to get into the 22.5.
Opening (IRA): EWZ January 17th 23 Short Put... for a .71 credit.
Comments: Here, I'm just trying to reduce my cost basis in my shares of stock (which is kind of an "ugh" at 31.65), so looking to take assignment at $23/share. Because of this, I will look to run this all the way to expiry, at which point I either get assigned or it expires worthless.
Metrics:
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 22.29
Max Profit: .71
ROC at Max: 3.19%
Opening (IRA): EWZ July 19th 31 Monied Covered Call... for a 30.31 debit.
Comments: Decent 30-day IV at 34.0%, but I'm primarily looking to position myself to grab the June dividend. IV is skewed to the put side in this underlying, so the general go-to would be short put, but to grab the dividend, you have to be in stock.
Because I want the extrinsic in the short call to exceed any dividend, I'm basically going at-the-money/slightly monied with the short call and will look to manage the position after the dividend drops. Unfortunately, the distribution has been wildly variant, so it's hard to tell how much extrinsic to keep in the short call to diminish the prospect of being called away early due to some dick exercising their long call early to grab the dividend.
Metrics (Sans Dividend):
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 30.31
Max Profit: .69
ROC at Max: 2.28%
ROC at 50% Max: 1.14%
JADE LIZARD Trade Idea for Jan 2025JADE LIZARD
$33 Call 1/17/2025 Buy
$32 Call 1/17/2025 Sell
-{Current Share Price: $29.77}-
$29 Put 1/17/2025 Sell
Approx $175 credit as of 10/2.
Jade Lizard = Credit from short put (below the price) exceeds max loss of call credit spread (above the price).
Worst case scenario is owning 100 shares of the iShares Brazil ETF @ around $27.25 per share, (which seems totally fine).
EWZ setting up multi-year breakout
Brazil boasts a strong investment case compared to an overvalued US market, which is historically trading at depressed multiples. The global scenario is looking positive for emerging market equities, like ewz and small cap brf with slower GDP deceleration, resilient commodity prices, and inflation control. Higher commodity exports are generally positive for Brazil’s currency (BRL) and equities. The technical set up is straight forward, from the 2020 high and low the price is consolidating ready to break above the descending trendline. If the fib retrace holds and the price can move past the high volume node which coincides with the breakout of the trendline around 32 we may see the start of a multi-year advance.
Opening (IRA): EWZ Sept 20th 25 Short Put... for a .53 credit.
Comments: In for a penny ... . In for a pound. With the July 19th 28 short put looking ripe for assignment (it's still got time, so you never know), adding a rung here out in Sept (there is no August monthly yet).
The current position is a Dec 20th 29 Covered Call with a 28.44 break even, a July 19th 28 short put, and a Sept 20th 25 short put. I'll look to add a rung in August once it becomes available, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on ... .
Opening (IRA): EWZ July 19th 28 Short Put... for a .65 credit.
Comments: Adding a short put element to my EWZ covered call ... . Here, it was either sell the 21 delta 27 for .36 or be more aggressive and sell the 30 delta for .65.
Do I really want more shares of EWZ? Not particularly. That being said, IV isn't horrid here at 26.5%, and there is the divvy to be had (8.20% annualized) so picking up additional shares wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing ... .
EWZ - Brazil was forgotten and will comebackWhile China, India, Russia and the Middle East have been very noticed, Brazil has been overlooked. With the discussion of the end of the dollar's hegemony, it may be a good time to look at emerging markets. Despite controversial policies, it is a country without problematic neighbors and with many natural resources. The areas and lines on the chart are support or resistance areas, with confluence in the fibonacci retracement and projection. The next few years look promising for EWZ.
EWZ May Fall Down to 30.75 - 30.45 in the Medium TermAfter breaking bellow a bearish flag-like consolidation, EWZ reached the contracted objective point at 32.00 in an agreement support zone. Market is now testing the broken line from the downside in a pull back movement. If the broken line can hold the market, EWZ tends to reach the next target in the objective point area at 30.75 - 30.45, which is also an agreement support.
EWZ has broken and retested its long-term downtrendThe EWZ (Brazil ETF) has used to be in a downtrend in USD terms since 2008. It has now broken and retested the resistance and looks ready for reaching higher highs. Fundamentally, it is trading at ~7x P/E with a large part of the index and the country economy being possibly fueled by a renewed commodities cycle.
EWZ: Long Brazilian EquitiesThis emerging market is breaking a 15 year downtrend, and I expect it to follow India. Countries that stay neutral in crazy geopolitical times tend to do very well. There are a lot of fundamental reasons to long Brazil that I won't enumerate here, commodity-rich etc, interest rates, etc.
The TA is the main thing here, TP 1 will get hit this year, and TP 1 Would be about 48, imo. TP2, $91.20 as I have it on the chart, could get hit earlier or by 2026 I'm not sure. I think that there could be a move symmetric and inverted to the 2008 down move (longer of course), but markets love mean reversion.
On the side of risk, China is dumping and they are Brazil's biggest supporter, so I believe that is the downside risk and why you should enforce the stop around $31.
EWZ Bear Call spread at 2nd order selling +1 sig retestSymbol EWZ
Open Date 11/6/2023
Bear Call or Bull Put Call
Expiry Date 12/22/2023
Short Strike 34.5
Long Strike 36
Price to Open 0.18
Min Width Multiple 3
Risk Ratio 7.33
Return on Risk 13.6%
Opening DTE 46
1 Day ROI% 0.30%
Max Annual ROI % 108.2%
Longer term, the buyer stepped in on the -1 sig test Oct 6
Rebought the Bearish range -1 sig and the selle did not come back at the aggregate range anchor -2 sig.
Candles past 5 days have gotten short and small.
Price is about to test the 2nd order selling range at +1 sig.
I anticipate that this seller returns with some capital and begins a push down.
So +2 sig above it from the 2nd aggregate seller and the Long term buyer is also above it.
Which is why I sold the 34.5 strike at 4 wide.
It's not that great a yield at 13%, but it's a sound technical idea IMO.
The trade here is to get a return of the 2nd order seller at its +1 sig and allow some time for the 12/22 Calls to die.
I only anticipate a push lower into maybe 31 or 30.75 where the buyer may resume.
So this Bearish position I need to watch closely to see how it reacts to the shortest Bull range -1 sig in the Blue shaded range.
I will buy back this position at breakeven or small profit if the approach and reaction at -1 sig, currently at 30.62 and probably 31 into the future, is a strong Bullish response leaving gaps and imbalances on the 15 min.
(Incorporating ICT orderflow reading)