OPENING: EWZ SEPT 31ST 31 MONIED COVERED CALL... for a 29.39/debit per one lot.
Metrics:
Max Loss: 29.39 per contract on setup
Max Profit: 1.61 per contract on setup (5.48% ROC)
Break Even: 29.39 on setup
Delta: 37.54
Theta: 1.40
Notes: Roll the short call out on significant loss of value,* to maintain the desired net delta of the position, and/or to defend the break even. I would note a couple of things: (1) The Max Loss metric assumes you do nothing (no rolls) and that the underlying goes to zero, which is theoretically possible, but unlikely, since it's an exchange-traded fund made up of multiple moving parts, as opposed to being a single name underlying. (2) Similarly, the Max Profit metric assumes you do nothing, and that the underlying finishes above the short call strike at expiry. Rolling out the short call for credit decreases your cost basis and break even, and therefore increases your profit potential.
The basic point of the strategy -- regardless of whether you go monied or sell an out-of-the money call -- is to reduce cost basis in the underlying over time without necessarily having to rely on favorable movement. Consequently, you can make money over time if (a) the underlying doesn't move; (b) the underlying moves in a bullish manner; or (c) the underlying moves bearishly --- as long as you are able to collect a credit for a roll of the short call. The only situations in which rolling produces diminishing returns is where (1) the underlying rips up such that the short call you're attempting to sell does not have significant extrinsic value, in which case, your best option is to exit the trade at or near max and re-up if a play remains attractive; or (2) where the underlying has lost so much value that you can't get paid for a reasonably delta'd short call no matter how far out in time you go.
Whether you go monied or out-of-the money is, in part, a risk tolerance choice. The trade-off you make in going deeper is that you potentially give up some profit potential on setup in exchange for a more forgiving break even. The primary reasons I go monied over out-of-the-money with these: (a) I'm just looking for a "trade," not an investment. If I was eyeing the setup as an "investment" and wanted to remain married to the shares, out-of-the-money would probably be the way to go; (b) I'm looking to preserve capital in the setup. This usually occurs where the stock I'm married to has had a huge up run and rewarded me hansomely, but I'm worried about this being the potential end of the ride -- I drive the short calls into the money to give me better downside protection; and/or (c) I lack conviction that the underlying will maintain its current level.
* -- The most often cited metric is to roll the short call when it's lost 50% of its value. However, a lot of the decision-making process behind whether to roll has to do with how much time is left in the setup. If the short call is at 50% max with four days to go and price is well above my short call, well, I just might want to let it play out. If I'm three days into the play and the underlying has dropped significantly, rolling out at that point makes more sense than waiting, since the underlying may continue to move against me and waiting to roll may not be beneficial for credit collection if that occurs.
EWZ trade ideas
EWZ, Weekly, NeutralEWZ (Brazil), has been in an uptrend since 2016. The past 3 months has seen it drop to it's support. Oversold conditions in RSI and Williams indicate that EWZ may have bottomed out.
This may be a low-risk entry point, but buying would be catching a falling knife. The support has not been well-tested either, so I am remaining neutral on EWZ for now.
Brazil going down the toilet into recession - short
Recent trucking strikes has put Brazil on the path to recession. Investor confidence in the government to implement pro-capitalism policies are low. GDP will take years to recover, so will many industries. Trend and money flow have spoken. This is going to 2016 lows.
Reclaiming the top in EWZ: A trend toolSince fear is stronger than greed, price fall faster than it rises.
I have tried to outlined the trend path of EWZ for its reclaimance of the January 2018 top.
I will trade this With options going forward.
First important notes of startup:
I think first hard reaction will be at 35. Then a drop to approx 31.5 ish. Then New powerful move up before sideways and then long trend.
Good Luck.
OPENING: EWZ JULY 20TH 33/39/39/45 IRON FLY... for a 3.22/contract credit ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 50%
Max Profit: $322/contract
Max Loss: $278/contract
Theta: 1.71/contract
Delta: -7.06/contract
Break Evens: 35.78/42.22
Notes: With a background implied of around 31%, it's the highest vol exchange-traded fund out there. As with a short straddle, I'll look to manage the trade early (25% max). If vol comes way in, I'll take profit even earlier ... .
OPENING: EWZ MAY 18TH 39/41/48/50 IRON CONDOR... for a .62/contract credit.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 57%
Max Profit: $62/contract
Max Loss: $139/contract
Break Evens: 40.39/48.61
Variants:
May 18th 41/48 short strangle, 1.30/contract at the mid; break evens at 39.70/49.30.
May 18th 38/41/48/51 iron condor; .75/contract at the mid; break evens at 40.25/48.75.
Notes: With background implied remaining fairly high (33.4%), I'm going small with this defined risk setup in the kid's small account, but using the short strangle variant in mine. Looking to take profit on both the iron condor and the short strangle at 50% max.
OPENING: EWZ DEC 15TH 33.5/35.5/44/46 IRON CONDOR (LATE POST)... for a .38/contract credit.
With an implied volatility of 31.6, this is one of the higher volatility exchange traded funds. Going small.
For a two-wide, this credit is less than compelling; I usually want to see 1/3rd the width of the wings out of these. Thinking of it more as an "engagement trade" than anything else, as I wait for some volatility to seep back into the market ... .