Brazil OversoldEmerging markets and in particular Brazil have been on a bad losing streak last several months as appetite has soured for global growth. Short term bear rally potential for short term swing.
EWZ trade ideas
EWZ, Weekly, NeutralEWZ (Brazil), has been in an uptrend since 2016. The past 3 months has seen it drop to it's support. Oversold conditions in RSI and Williams indicate that EWZ may have bottomed out.
This may be a low-risk entry point, but buying would be catching a falling knife. The support has not been well-tested either, so I am remaining neutral on EWZ for now.
Brazil going down the toilet into recession - short
Recent trucking strikes has put Brazil on the path to recession. Investor confidence in the government to implement pro-capitalism policies are low. GDP will take years to recover, so will many industries. Trend and money flow have spoken. This is going to 2016 lows.
EWZ Playing the reaction: CountertrendCountertrend risky setup: Use small position if taken.
I will look for short on Monday from 35-35.5.
Reclaiming the top in EWZ: A trend toolSince fear is stronger than greed, price fall faster than it rises.
I have tried to outlined the trend path of EWZ for its reclaimance of the January 2018 top.
I will trade this With options going forward.
First important notes of startup:
I think first hard reaction will be at 35. Then a drop to approx 31.5 ish. Then New powerful move up before sideways and then long trend.
Good Luck.
OPENING: EWZ JULY 20TH 33/39/39/45 IRON FLY... for a 3.22/contract credit ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 50%
Max Profit: $322/contract
Max Loss: $278/contract
Theta: 1.71/contract
Delta: -7.06/contract
Break Evens: 35.78/42.22
Notes: With a background implied of around 31%, it's the highest vol exchange-traded fund out there. As with a short straddle, I'll look to manage the trade early (25% max). If vol comes way in, I'll take profit even earlier ... .
EWZ longWait for price to drop to $34.50
Confirm IV>35%
Enter a bull put spread or a short put with SL right under the zone
EWZ revised pathExpecting a test of 36 first, and then a period of consolidation and then finally a breakout. Things just became slightly salty in brazil land
EWZ Brazil ETF - Simple options tradeBuying 38.00 P @ 7/20/18 EXP, 2 daily candle closes above broken trendline will be my soft stop.
Brazil Bull times coming soonLooks like we are almost at the point where being long brazil is not a bad idea. My stops would be under the 3rd green bar, and will target ~49
large bull gartley?$brzu $ewz $brzs $spy $spx $ewzs Not too confident in this. The location and size are unusual, but the measurements are right on for being a bullish gartley. You can't make this stuff up.
$EWZ Corrective advance $EWZ maintains its amazing similarity to $FCX both can be counted as corrective advances where course in $EWZ current decline has anticipated target at 50 back
Long EWZ on touch of bullish trend line supportBuy EWZ on touch of bullish trend line support. Stop at last week's candle minimum, medium-term loose target about 30% above current prices in line with previous uptrend in cycle.
OPENING: EWZ MAY 18TH 39/41/48/50 IRON CONDOR... for a .62/contract credit.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 57%
Max Profit: $62/contract
Max Loss: $139/contract
Break Evens: 40.39/48.61
Variants:
May 18th 41/48 short strangle, 1.30/contract at the mid; break evens at 39.70/49.30.
May 18th 38/41/48/51 iron condor; .75/contract at the mid; break evens at 40.25/48.75.
Notes: With background implied remaining fairly high (33.4%), I'm going small with this defined risk setup in the kid's small account, but using the short strangle variant in mine. Looking to take profit on both the iron condor and the short strangle at 50% max.
OPENING: EWZ DEC 15TH 33.5/35.5/44/46 IRON CONDOR (LATE POST)... for a .38/contract credit.
With an implied volatility of 31.6, this is one of the higher volatility exchange traded funds. Going small.
For a two-wide, this credit is less than compelling; I usually want to see 1/3rd the width of the wings out of these. Thinking of it more as an "engagement trade" than anything else, as I wait for some volatility to seep back into the market ... .
Brazil Under Consolidation (EWZ) (NEUTRAL)Consolidation triangle forming, confirm a breakout or reversal with increased volume and by watching price trend for up to a few days, depending on how quickly the reversal or breakout takes place. EWZ is at a point of upper resistance, see previous highs several months ago.
