EWZ trade ideas
OPENING: EWZ JAN 13TH 29/32.5/32.5/36 IRON FLYGo where the volatility takes you, I say. Layering on a bit more EWZ fly here, this time in the Jan 13th expiry.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 42%
Max Profit: $214/contract
Max Loss: $136/contract
Break Evens: 30.36/34.64
Notes: You know the drill ... . Will look to take this off at 25% max profit.
Pay attention to this Trendline in Brazil etf /EWZ...This is interesting development. There is LT trendline at play here. If it is broken and we get Tk cross, i will look for long entries on daily TF. So,far we have rejection. Next month, TK will be flat and might act as support . I am closely watching usdollar in 2017 for behavious change. No trade as of yet in this etf, but can present a very good opportunity . Thought to share.
OPENING: EWZ JAN 6TH 28.5/32/32/36 IRON FLYAnd right back into "the Brazilian," as there isn't much high implied volatility rank/high implied volatility stuff to play out there at the moment ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 45%
Max Profit: $223/contract
Max Loss: $177/contract
Break Evens: 29.77/34.23
Notes: Will look to manage at 25% max profit.
Brazil 1-2-3EWZ is still in a corrective structure - in its B-leg up. This can be rode down.
The C leg down have the potential of being brutal. Target 29 or upper 26-zone. I suspect we will have a quick trip to 26.7 zone but I suspect we won't reach that far.
OPENING: EWZ DEC 16TH 30.5/33.5/33.5/37 IRON FLYGoing short duration here because I can't find liquidity in the weeklies for the setup and don't really want to go out to Jan.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 45%
Max Profit: $187/contract
Max Loss: $163/contract
Break Evens: 31.63/35.37
Notes: As with a short straddle, I'll look to manage this at 25% of max profit.
Short Brasil (EWZ)Super China bear here looking at a lovely technical setup. The rally has gotten way too far ahead of itself. The 50month MA and a decade long trendline as well as the .50 fib level from the 2014-2016 move all acting as resistance.
An inverse trip to BrazilBrazil is known for nice beaches, women and carpirinhas.
The beautiful Christ the Redeemer is placed high above Rio.
Raging high is also the price of EWZ which is stretched more than 30 % above its 200 DMA.
It has reached 1.618 of its previous intermediate top and it is due for an intermediate cycle low correction soon.
It has met a big resistance level and its RSI indicates heavily overbought conditions.
Wait for "double top" and take position in BRZS which is 3x inverse EWZ. Recommend start with 50% position and increase by 50% after first confirmation.
EWZ hitting resistanceEWZ is getting a bit extended and will hit resistance around 37.4ish area. We may see a short term pull bag.
EWZ weekly - triple resistance - 10/18/2016Expect some pullback and higher volatility from here. Note weaker RSI and MACD relative to price. Buy a retested breakout if occurred.
EWZ weekly - short term be cautious - 9/30/2016It has been stalled for 7 weeks, MACD turns negative and RSI rising wedge breaks. Price is still holding well but I am watching the blue support line carefully.
Overall up trend is intact given the rising 40 week moving average, any drop less than 20% should be seen as a healthy correction and should be bought given the up trend bias.
First pullbackIt is not much to say. Preice were fall below 20 EMA and now bounce is expected. There is also lower low and lower high expected.
EWZ weekly - still looks healthy - 9/1/2016It has some overbought fatigue but overall still looks healthy. Buy new high if it can make it.
TRADE IDEA (PREMIUM SELLING): EWZ OCT 21ST 29.5 SHORT PUTHere, I'm just looking to sell a little premium in the highest implied volatility, broad market underlying there is out there at the moment -- the Brazil exchange-traded fund, EWZ. The Olympics, after all, are over, and no doubt body parts will be washing up again soon on Copacabana beach, PBR will be undergoing yet another corruption/fraud/you-name-it scandal, and there is, of course, that whole impeachment thing ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 71%
Max Profit: $107/contract (at the mid)
Breakeven: 30.46
Notes: I'm basically selling the ~30 delta strike here. I'll look to roll the option down and out for duration and credit if the price of the option equals 2x what I received in credit for it. Otherwise, I'll leave it alone and look to cover the trade at 50% max profit. Naturally, there's a lot of air below the strike, but I'm mentally prepared to have to roll it down and out for a period of time to get it to "work out" ... .
EWZ weekly - broke out of rising wedge - 7/30/2016A breakout from a rising wedge is very bullish. Highly likely the pink line can be hit soon ($37 level). Red line should provide solid support.
