EWZ trade ideas
EWZ oversold with bullish divergenceEWZ is at the lower bollinger band with stochastics oversold. It is backed up by the RSI also recently exiting the oversold lower boundary area, which is a buy signal. All the weak hands and people with close stops got flushed out. Now the MACD histogram also shows bullish divergence and is about to cross the zero line. A good risk to reward trade can be made placing stops at the low where they got flushed out earlier, now that they're gone. It was a good place, just the wrong time. Also observed is a pipe bottom candlestick followed by a gap up at the lower band.
Long call trade: EWZ - Yacine Kanoun inspiredYacine Kanoun brought this stock to my attention.
I'm considering purchasing calls with a strike price of 40usd and an expiration date on March 6th.
The spread between USDBRL and EWZ is reaching similar percentages to what has show in the past, so I think that it's due for an adjustment, and thus agree with Yacine.
I also spotted a technical key level, which I want to see the stock avoid to retest during the next week, for a time at mode buy setup to confirm.
My own indicator displaying bands shows price reached an extreme low, and so does rgmov.
The retest of the supply area seen in the last high, but on lower volume is a bullish signal as well.
Remember to risk less than 5% on each trade, in this case, I'm considering a 1.5-3% risk.
Good luck!
Brazil - Post election longDuring the weekend, presidential elections concluded with the re-election of Dilma Rousseff. This was perceived as bad news for the BOVESPA, but after gaping strongly on Monday, the Brazilian stock market has been rising strongly.
A double bullish divergence on the MACD histogram on a triple bottom formation, with extreme volume bars and climactic action on the Weis Wave.
I expect this ETF to go at least to 50$.
The daily chart offered almost a perfect buying signal. A daily bullish divergence with a very bullish weekly chart
$EWZ - daily chartfull disclosure: I'm long the Dec19'14 puts @ $50
both the 13 (blue) and 34 (pink) Bollinger Bands have flattened out.
the 50 day MA is rising and the 200 day MA is relatively unchanged since late June.
the daily Williams %R is at -70; this indicates that pressure might turn negative.
based on these observations, $EWZ could see more losses in the near term.
upside levels to watch: $51.85, $55.51
downside levels to watch: ~$50, $48.37, $46.44
Premature enormous potential in Brazil Will be monitoring $EWZ over the next few weeks to see if this 3.5 year shit show is turning a new leaf with the recent break of a major downtrend line (2 variations drawn) on a positive divergence in RSI, and a slowly uptrending MACD that crossed the zero line and is at levels not seen since early 2012. The downtrend line of momentum on a weekly relative basis vs. the S&P has also been captured while putting in a higher low. While things are definitely looking interesting, I would want to see the downtrend line from early 2008 as well as the 200 day moving average captured before going long.
World Cup's Winning Trade On Brazil's EWZ Millions of soccer fans around the world await the most important global sporting event, the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Many media outlets have already started to hype different stocks, as well as statistics about the event. This brings about a question for us traders, who is going to win and how can we profit? As technical traders, who study and trade from the charts, we are one step ahead of the news, and possibly even the game! With that in mind, lets look to the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSEARCA:EWZ) to help us pick the winning nation by analyzing the chart.
We can clearly see the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF)(NYSEARCA:EWZ) is retesting a major trendline break out, with the 200 day moving average just below the trendline. This could serve as minor short term support. However, the chart has begun to consolidate right at the line, without getting any significant bounce, as of now. The longer price remains around this level, the more likely the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSEARCA:EWZ) are to break down.
If this trendline is broken the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF)(NYSEARCA:EWZ) will fall quickly. A major support level where the shares will find buyers is $42.49.
If the level mentioned ($42.49) happens to be hit towards the end of the World Cup, and Brazil is still in the tournament, then the EWZ will rally (among other factors) in part as a result of Brazil winning the 2014 FIFA World Cup from this level of support.
That is my prediction based on the charts... please feel free to comment and make your own predictions, let us know if another chart is telling you who will win the 2014 FIFA World Cup! I would love to hear your thoughts, feel free to comment on our google+ page, our facebook fan page or tweet at me. As always, myself and the other Pro Traders of the Elite Round Table will be providing our members with the detailed trades, live when they happen... join us now!
Kiliam Lopez
Elite Round Table, Pro Trader
Tweet at me @kiliamLopez
SPY vs. BRIC & MINT BRIC ( Brazil, Russia, India, China)
MINT ( Mexico, Indonesia,Nigeria, Turkey)
The BRIC and MINT concept was introduced by former Goldman Sach economist Jim O'Neill. Mr. O'Neill recently said that BRIC and MINTs countries would shape the world's economy in the next decade, and they would be the best places for investments.
Although I don't disagree with Mr. O'Neill 's statement, one must be aware of the geopolitical risks in this group of countries and how it would affect their investments. Russia with the annexation of Crimea and Turkey and Nigeria have bee n a political mess for the past year.
I use the above chart to monitor the performance of that group against the SPY. As you can, the SPY clearly outperforms the groups,whether this is the result of QE or not.
Cheers
Algo
!!!FIFA World Cup long-term play!!! (Maybe a bit early lol)Price seems to have found support at the long-term monthly trendline for now.
Bullish Thesis:
Brazil is a resource and an emerging market play for my portfolio. Considering I missed the recent gains in commodity stocks (steel,coal), I believe long-term EWZ should rise too provided the overall trend in commodity stocks is confirmed bullish. Consolidation of the recent gains would be nice to see and would provide chance to add.
World Cup should provide the obvious benefits but I feel the market has't correctly priced in much premium for it yet.
EWZ is in a falling wedge pattern (mostly bullish) and there is Bullish Divergence in the Fisher transform. Out of the BRICS, Brazil isn't the strongest but has a good risk-reward to trade off. Indian Stocks are already at yearly highs so hard to initiate any kind of longs there now.
I have a Tier 1 size long position bought between $46-$47. I will add more size to this position if we get a deeper pullback or if there is a good pattern on the daily to trade off. Breakout from this wedge pattern + MA crossover confirmation would be very bullish from hereon.
I currently don't have a hard stop on this position as I am considering it as 12 month long-term play (Stop not based on specific price but on certain events)
!Events!- Brazilian Inflation rising; 1/2 size off if SPY loses and close below 50 day MA and 1/2 off it loses 100 day MA; Commodity Stocks start a bearish trend again.