My Treasure Map 4 EWZIf price can stay above 9 DMA , This can be my Treasure map all the way to the 0.618 Fibonacci retrenchment.
#ewz #brzu
EWZ trade ideas
Looking for a long on Brazil in the support zoneTry to enter off the daily but this is a weekly trade.
EWZ: Make Samba Great AgainBolsonaro.
The hated man. But who cares?
Things are looking better in Brazil. Flip-flop sales are up due to hot summer across the globe.
Drastic reduction in homicide over the last year makes it safer for the population to attend to their daily chores. Price of oil is going up, and soft commodities are gonna start to shine after a long slug.
We're entering into trend reversal zone, let's call it the Samba-zone.
Daily EWZ stock trend forecast analysis19-Aug
pretiming analysis
1. Recommended Positions
=> Short-Bearish
2. Price target within 10 days in the future
Stock price: 37.32 ~ 37.79
% Change: -8.41% ~ -7.26%
3. Investing section
=> In Falling section of high risk & low profit
4. Supply-Demand(S&D) strength Trend
=> In the midst of a downward trend of strong downward momentum price flow marked by temporary rises and strong falls.
5. Today's S&D strength
=> Supply-Demand strength has changed from a weak selling flow to a strengthening selling flow again.
6. Forecast Candlestick Color at tomorrow
=> RED Candlestick
7. Forecast Timing Chart of 10 days in the future
www.pretiming.com
8. Forecast Range % D+1 (C): -0.56%
(L) ~ (H) Range: -1.79% ~ 0.89%
9. %Average in case of rising (C): 1.04%
(L) ~ (H) Range: -0.43% ~ 1.64%
10. %Average in case of falling (C): -1.62%
(L) ~ (H) Range: -2.13% ~ 0.57%
Massive Head & shoulders on EWZ month graph with neck breakMassive Head & shoulders on EWZ month graph with neck break
EWZ Brazil ETF Buy SignalUsing macd MTF in weekly and daily time We can see a EWZ Brazil Buy Signal for long trade.
Brazilian ShortsHere's an idea for next week....
EWZ pattern looks similar to the last top. EWZ tends to trade with gold (though Brazil isn't even that big of a producer.) Looks toppy, just like gold. Will look at this Monday.
EWZ options have small spread and good liquidity.
$EWZ Good Short Strangle Opportunity$EWZ has pretty good pricing in its OTM options right now, and the August weeklies in particular. The 38/45.5 Strangle priced around 1.20 looks pretty decent right now and covers about a 1 standard deviation move. Worth a shot.
EWZ: Viking is back in townI've been working for 5 hours to estimate the trend turns for the next six months. To gain the knowledge to do those five hours are countless.
Now, it will not be 100 % accurate in timing. I still have a lot of cycle work to be completed to fine-tune. But it will be quite accurate as I have gone back in time and checked out what EWZ has done in the past. And since the past tells us about the future as history repeats, confidence level is high. Please allow a day or two on each side of the green bars.
Price is a different story. I have no clue how to deal with that. But its better to know when price can turn than how high it can go, if you catch my drift?
EWZ ResistanceIBov at resistance USD/BRL at support, so EWZ is hitting resistance. Divergence on the hourly.
Rolled into some June 7 puts.
$EWZ $BVSP $IBOV Brazilian Stocks Under PressureWith market volatility back in the global markets with a vengeance, and the US Dollar remaining strong, one EM equity market that has been hit particularly hard this year has been the Brazilian Stocks (EWZ). Sluggish growth forecasts, combined with waning support for the Brazilian President, has sent Brazilian Stocks to its lowest level of the year so far, down -2.94%.
The sharp declines have also been fueled by uncertainty over the US-China trade talks on a macro level. The combination of these two forces, the external macro headwinds and weak domestic economy, have both been a perfect storm for the under-performance of Brazilian stocks in 2019 thus far. Furthermore, on a technical basis, the EWZ continues to show deterioration within the equity market, with the 50-day EMA acting as a strong resistance March 2019 and the price action failing to break above since then.
We believe that is these headwinds continue, there will be more downside for Brazilian stocks to come. We caution investors against this equity market.
OPENING: EWZ JUNE 21ST 34.5/37.5/44/47 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.04/contract credit.
With implied volatility fairly low across the board, going small, defined in the exchange-traded fund with the highest background implied volatility on the board (30.9%) to keep powder dry for something sexier to come along ... . Shorts nearest the 25 delta strike, longs nearest the 10 with slightly more than one-third the width of the wings collected. Shooting for that ol' 50% max. Go 37.5/44 short strange in June, and you'll collect 1.60 or so.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 1.04 ($104)/contract
Max Loss: 1.96 ($196/contract)
Break Evens: 36.46/45.04
Delta/Theta: -2.36/1.18
EWZ 07-Jun-19 Short Iron CondorEWZ 07-Jun-19 Short Iron Condor
30-Day IV: 32.2 +1.2
IV Pct Rank: 50% Moderate
Long 1 Call: 42 Strike @ $0.80
Short 1 Call: 41.5 Strike @ $1.00
Long 1 Put: 39 Strike @ $0.88
Short 1 Put: 39.5 Strike @ $1.04
Credit: $0.37
EWZ 07-Jun-19 Open Interest Last 30 Days | Puts: 73% | Calls: 27%
EWZ MeltdownEconomic reform isn't going as well as hoped, the Brazilian bubble is popping. Note that their market hit ATH, it looks like a double top due to currency exchange rates.
EWW whipsawed on it's way down last summer, expecting the same here. Short any pops up, watch both iBov and USD/BRL exchange rates.
THE WEEK AHEAD: EWZ, XOP, MU, IWMTrade of the Week (May Cycle):
Pictured here is an EWZ (29/34) May 17th 37/45 short strangle: 1.14 credit, .57 at 50% max, break evens at 35.86/46.14, delta -1.46, theta 2.87.
Obvious Alternatives: EWZ May 17th 41 short straddle, 3.91 credit, .98 at 25% max, break evens at 37.09/44.91, delta -4.6, theta 4.01.
Notes: Pros: High implied, high implied relative to broad market (i.e., SPY 16/13), non-closely correlated with broad market (.4 3-month SPY correlation). Cons: Preference is for implied to be higher within 52-week range.
Exchange-Traded Funds
XOP (20/30): May 17th 31 short straddle, 2.67 credit, .67 at 25% max, break evens at 28.33/33.67, delta 1.89, theta 2.73.
Obvious Alternatives: May 17th 29/33 short strangle,* 1.15 credit, .57 at 50% max, break evens at 27.85/34.15, delta 2.07, theta 2.29.
Notes: Pros: High implied relative to broad market, non-closely correlated with broad market (.3 3-month SPY correlation). Cons: Preference is for implied to be higher within 52-week range.
XBI (21/26): May 17th 84/97 short strangle,** 2.48 credit, 1.24 at 50% max, break evens at 81.52/99.48, delta -.26, theta 5.62.
Obvious Alternatives: May 17th 79/84/97/102 iron condor, 1.65 credit, .83 at 50% max, break evens at 82.35/98.65, delta -3.15, theta 2.47.
Notes: Pros: High implied relative to broad market. Cons: Preference is for implied to be higher within 52-week range.
Single Name With Earnings in the Rear View Mirror
MU (10/40): May 17th 37/47 short strangle, 1.36 credit, .68 at 50% max, break evens at 35.64/48.36, delta .86, theta 3.41.
Notes: Pros: High implied relative to broad market, non-closely correlated (.42 3 month SPY correlation). Cons: Preference is for implied to be higher within its 52-week range.
Other Passing Observations:
Broad market volatility remains in low gear here with VIX finishing the week with a 13.71 print, although VXN is at 16.62, and RVX at 17.80, so "the frisk" is in small caps with the IWM (20/18) short strangle nearest 25 delta in the May cycle -- the 147/159 -- paying 3.02 at the door and 1.51 at 50% max and the 142/147/159/164 iron condor paying 1.76, .88 at 50% max.
* -- I'm in a May 17th 28/33 short strangle. (See Post Below).
** -- I'm in the May 17th 80/85/98/103 iron condor. (See Post Below).
