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GDX trade ideas

Opening (IRA): GDX February 16th 29 Monied Covered Call... for a 28.24 debit. Comments: GDX (IVR/IV 40.8/ 32.9) is at the top of my IV screener for ETF's (along with GDXJ, which has higher IV, but is less liquid). Buying stock and selling the -71 delta call against, resulting in a max profit potential of .76 ($76)/contract; 2.69% ROC at max; 1.35% at 50% max. That .76 isn't massively compelling, but the ROC is "decent" for what I'm trying to do in the IRA on a month-month basis.
AMEX:GDXLong
by NaughtyPines
Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Extending Higher in Impulsive StructureShort Term Elliott Wave view in Gold Miners ETF (GDX) suggests rally from 2.29.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse structure. Up from 2.29.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 30.48 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 28.91. Internal subdivision of wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 29.71 and wave (b) ended at 30.08. Wave (c) lower ended at 28.91 which completed wave ((ii)). The ETF then resumed higher in wave ((iii)) with subdivision as an impulsive structure. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 30.9 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 29.53. The Index extends higher in wave (iii). Up from wave (ii), wave i ended at 30.39 and pullback in wave ii ended at 29.79. Wave iii higher ended at 32.69 and wave iv pullback ended at 31.71. Expect wave v of (iii) to end soon, then it should pullback in wave (iv) before the ETF extends higher again in wave (v) to complete wave ((iii)). Near term, as far as pivot at 29.53 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
AMEX:GDX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Opened (IRA): GDX March 15th 27 Monied Covered Call... for a 26.21 debit. Comments: 42.2 IV/32.8% 30-day IV. Before I went to take a nap, added a "rung" on weakness here to my position, buying a one lot and selling a -75 call against. I already have a February monied on (See Post Below), so went out to March for this setup. The call IV at the 27 strike: 37.32%. The put side at the same strike: 29.49% with their respective maxes being .79 for the 27 monied; .49 for the 27 short put. As previously noted, this only makes sense in a cash secured environment where you don't get much BP relief by hanging out in the options. This cost 26.21 to put on in the IRA; the 27 short put would cost 26.51. Compare on margin: 26.21 buying power effect for this setup, 3.18 BPE for the 27 short put. Put another way: you generally don't do this setup on margin because it isn't BP efficient. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Cost Basis/Break Even: 26.21 Max Profit (The Short Call Strike Price - Cost Basis): .79 ($79) ROC %-age At Max: 3.01%/15.70% Annualized ROC %-age at 50% Max: 1.51%/7.85% Annualized
AMEX:GDXLong
by NaughtyPines
Gold Miners versus Gold : the moment has come to buy.It is time to consider being LONG Gold Miners / SHORT Gold. The chart speaks for itself. The ratio is not at absolute low however below the low of 2008 and within the low area There is a 4 years cycle 2008-12-16-20-24 alternating low and high. Final low is expected this year. After which the ratio will rise up until 2028. Should 24 be challenged (supported by rising Gold prices), then P&F chart theory suggests that the bullish trend will target 48 It can be observed that EURUSD follows the same 4 year cycle. Therefore we are bullish on the European Currency.
AMEX:GDXLong
by FRED-RABEMAN
1
Opening (IRA): GDX June 21st 24 Monied Covered Call... for a 22.83 debit. Comments: Selling the -75 call against a one lot here out in June where I have covered calls at the 29, 27, and now 24 strikes. 1.17 max on BPE of 22.83; 5.12% ROC at max; 2.56% at 50% max. Going monied CC here in lieu of an equivalently delta'd short put to take advantage of call side IV skew (39.6% on the call side; 29.18% on the put side at the 24 strike). This is probably about as much BP I want to devote to a miners position, which I view as an indirect rate cut play with the notion being that the dollar weakens somewhat, gold strengthens, and miners indirectly follow with bets being that there's a rate cut in May. It may naturally end up being later; the market hasn't exactly been "spot on" with either the timing of depth of cuts of late ... . Alternatively, GDXJ/GDX are at the top of my screener for 30-day IV, so I'm just going where the juice is at.
AMEX:GDXLong
by NaughtyPines
2
Consolidation Continues for Precious Metal Mining StocksGold miners have shown relative weakness to the metals since topping in 2020, and that looks likely to continue in the near term. However, when this consolidation completes, the mining stocks should once again shine and starts catching up, potentially in the next couple of months. For this reason, the time has come to keep this group on your watch list as a bottom below the October 2023 level of 25.65 on GDX could prove to be a durable bottom that will serve as a base to move GDX back over the ~ 36 high, and could even see prices breaking over the 45.76 high from 2020. These would likely represent ~ 46% and 86% upside moves respectively, so well worth a long trade. A bit more patience is needed until this group will be ready, but could coincide with a pullback in the market in the coming months. The downside levels of interest are ~ 24.1-24.6, and 22.8 to look for evidence of a bottom formation.
AMEX:GDX
by CycleTargets
Gold continues sideways consolidationGold will make new highs in 2024 once the fed pivots. Going into 2028 you will see gold continue to break records. The 2028 election will all be about the defecit and the debt. We won't make it to the 2030's without cutting spending, 100% of all tax receipts will go towards interest on the $46 trillion debt in 2028. For now, Gold bulls just keep your toes in, if you're out, stay out. Wait for the micro indicators to turn around, a sustained GDX about 30 would be a good indicator. Banks are shorting the SH ** out of gold so just be careful, but the inevitable is coming.
AMEX:GDX
by SilverChad
GDX Put credit spread at -1 sigymbol GDX Open Date 11/9/2023 Put or Call Put Expiry Date 12/22/2023 Short Strike 25 Long Strike 24 Price to Open 0.12 Min Width Multiple 2 Risk Ratio 7.33 Return on Risk 13.6% Opening DTE 43 1 Day ROI% 0.32% Max Annual ROI % 115.8% GDX hit a -2 sig on the weekly timeframe back on Oct 4/5 just like a lot of stuff did. Pushed up and took out the previous bearish selling range, dipping into the gap range sellside liquidity above Grey box. Becaue it made such a V bottom and left so many 4h gaps, running over and through the bearish opposing gaps I think probabilities shift to Bullish continuation. Also, the fact that it pushed back INTO the weekly VA in Blue and held there for about a month makes me think the liquidity is Higher and it's reaching for it. This is a textbook setup for me, anticipating a -1 sig pullback and then the pricing algo steps in to push higher. The morning open saw the dive down to engage a buyer, then pushed away for a few hours, then I entered on the first 5 min pullback. However, the level doesn't seem to hold this morning and it's hunting for liquidity below on a gap down today. Chose the 25 short strike as it's about 2.5 sig the expected excursion from the entry -1 sig. I may sell more at the 24 strike if 26.60 is tested at -2 sig. Right now, I anticipate the weekly -2 sig selling level in Green near 25.60 will cause a buying bounce, if not the Daily/4h buying at the Blue line -2 sig doesn't step in before. This is all happening after Powell speech yesterday afternoon and the QQQ just keeps extending higher reaching for some sellside liquidity.
AMEX:GDXLong
by claypuzzle
ZZ + Flat + Contracting triangle ( WXY)The straight climb from Jan to July 2016 has been labelled by many EW analysts as wave 1 and the drop to 16 usd on Mar 2020 (during the covid period) as wave 2. I will, nonetheless, label them as wave W and X respectively as depicted in my chart. Wave W as a zigzag, wave X as flat (ABC), with wave B of X as an expanding flat. Using the rule of alteration, wave Y will be a triangle. As shown in the chart, wave e of a contracting triangle is trending. A breakdown below the bd trendline of the contracting triangle will be a first sign of a reversal.
AMEX:GDX
by brown_maverick
$GDX Bullish Chart Pattern The AMEX:GDX chart is currently exhibiting a bullish pattern, characterized by an inverse head and shoulders formation, a key technical analysis indicator. This pattern typically suggests a potential reversal of the prior downward trend, indicating a likely upward movement in price. An inverse head and shoulders pattern is a notable formation in technical analysis, often signaling a potential bullish trend reversal. This pattern typically appears after a downtrend and is characterized by three troughs: the left shoulder, the head, and the right shoulder. The head is the lowest point, and the shoulders are slightly higher but relatively equal in depth. The pattern is completed with a neckline, drawn by connecting the high points of the two peaks located between the head and shoulders. A decisive breakout above this neckline is considered a confirmation of the pattern. This breakout often occurs with increased trading volume, adding validity to the potential trend reversal. Traders and investors usually view the inverse head and shoulders as a sign of a shifting momentum from bearish to bullish. The price target post-breakout is often estimated by measuring the distance from the head's lowest point to the neckline and projecting this distance upwards from the point of breakout. However, it's important to consider other market factors and indicators alongside this pattern for a more comprehensive analysis.
AMEX:GDX
by AlgoTradeAlert
4
Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Should Continue to Extend HigherShort Term Elliott Wave in Gold Miners Junior (GDX) suggests rally from 11.10.2023 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 11.10.2023 low, wave ((i)) ended at 29.07 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Dips in wave (ii) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 28.38 and wave (b) rally ended at 28.75. Wave (c) lower ended at 27.98 which completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree. The ETF then extends higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 29.6. Wave (ii) ended as a zigzag structure in lesser degree. Down from wave (i), wave a ended at 29.18, wave b ended at 29.47, and wave c ended at 29.01. This completed wave (ii) in higher degree. The ETF then extends higher again in wave (iii). Up from wave (ii), wave i ended at 29.87 and pullback in wave ii ended at 29.46. Expect the ETF to rally a bit higher to end wave iii, then it should pullback in wave iv to correct cycle from 11.28.2023 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 27.98 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3 ,7, or 11 swing for further upside.
AMEX:GDX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
GDX: Bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders Bottom In PlayGold is up an even 10% year to date. The precious metal has frustrated bulls at times in 2023 but falling real interest rates over the past several weeks have undoubtedly been a boon. While it’s encouraging to see spot gold climb above the $2000 per ounce mark, I see potential upside in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Notice in the chart that the portfolio of gold mining companies, Newmont Mining (NEM) being the biggest weight, is working on a bullish inverse head and shoulders bottom formation. I see a key neckline around the $30 mark while the low under $26 from early October represents the head. If we project that $4.50 height onto the neckline, then an upside measured move price objective to near $34.50 would be in play. Something to watch heading into year-end is how the US Dollar Index performs. Surely a move toward 4% on the 10-year Treasury Note rate would be a macro tailwind for gold and the gold miners, but a drop under 100 might also help commodities writ large. What could cause such a combination of lower rates and a weaker greenback? Softer economic data, including a weak payrolls report due out on Friday, December 8, might be such a catalyst. As it stands, four rate cuts are priced into next year which offers a solid backdrop for precious metals heading into 2024.
AMEX:GDXLong
by mikezaccardi