GDX and IBB review (IBB at decision point)both bullish, IBB at critical point - please follow, cheers, Rick
GDX trade ideas
Long on Common Sense. I Personally don't believe the price of Gold is linked to inflation or the recession.
However, you might. So let's see if this reasoning holds up to scrutiny.
Let's see if selling at 2k makes sense.
Boomer Logic:
It happened in the past, there was a recession and then the price of Gold spiked to 2k and then it crashed, so it will happen again.
Skeptic:
This brings up a very interesting question, was every previous recession followed by 2k price spike and then a crash.
Looking at the price history of Gold there is no indication of that. 2k is just a random number pegged to dollar valuation that flucatues with time.
So 2k, or any number we peg in our mind to the price of gold in terms of dollars is really insignificant. It would not indicate a reason to sell or even buy. However, you might.
Boomer Logic:
Well how about inflation, those daaaaaaaaaaaaaam feds are printing so much goddaaaaaamn money! and that's why we all need to sell.
Skeptic:
Ook so the government is printing lots of money, so wouldn't selling into inflation erase your investment?
However, let's pretend selling into inflation makes sense.
What is the current inflation rate? The current inflation rate is only 1.6 % at best or maybe 1.7%.
No one is going out and spending and working, everyone is afraid of the Ronoa, so how can there be inflation?
Inflation is only expected to pick up next year. So selling now means you would be buying into inflation, and thus losing money and a buying opportunity for anyone else.
However, you do what makes sense for you. You can sell when you know the economy is heading in the right directions.
You won't need some financial fortune teller telling you when to sell.
You will feel it in the air, when people have more confidence in government and in the strength of the dollar.
You might think that's happening right now, in which case you should sell right away.
However if you don't, then you probably shouldn't, and I suspect we won't be there anytime soon. But you do you ;-)
GDX needs to pullback and resetGDX has been on a good run and is showing signs of topping out. Specifically bearish divergence is clear on MFI (money flow index and we see a clear 5 wave pattern in the context of Elliot Wave analysis with wave 5 almost exactly equal to wave 1 which is a component of wave analysis. For those who want to short you must establish your own stop loss and a reasonable first target is the low 38 regions based on a .618 retracement of the 5th wave and this also correlates to where the volume weighted moving average is. I would also not be surprised to see a corrective ABC pattern play out.
GDXPotentially early next week a pullback under the 40 level. Then I will be looking for another advance higher. The dollar index is showing divergence and may have a bounce early next week putting downward pressure on SPX GLD GDX
Long GDX As illustrated. Because this one is a slow mover, I am going to sell call to increase my profit along with time. (Cover call strategy)
Gold futures fluctuate quite a lot, the timing of sell call is important (not at the same time as buying the stock).
!GDX, !SLV Trade Updates Holding both positions long from the entry given on back in June here on my tradingview.
Take some profitsThis has been a nice run, but the RSI is telling me that it's time to take some profits. But I don't think the gold rush is completely over, just due for a pullback, BTW, GDXJ looks to be the same.
Equities - Own What is Working! Pt. 5Please check out my blog post for the full details:
www.derzzycharts.com
Well GDX looks really healthy right now. There isn’t even a bearish divergence which means we can buy it right now if we wanted to! Remember to stick to your process whenever you are entering positions. So for now, we will leave XBI and QQQ alone, but buy GDX right now if we so please.
Happy Trading!
Brandon Anderson
brandon@derzzycharts.com
@derzzycharts
www.derzzycharts.com
GDX 2009 vs 2020 bull marketSo it seems GDX bull market of 2020 could follow a similar path to that of 2009.
gdxb/o and b/t of huge base. Make your picks and just buy and hold. Good luck trying to trade the bounces, it will drive you crazy.Go and look at gold monthly candle spreads. Maybe keep some spare scratch to play the bounces but make a core portfolio and leave it be, you'll be much farther ahead .
Miners and gold have started their decentGold will soar but before it does, it is likely going down. The dollar might show strength which will weaken gold. Miners, helped with the stock market going down would sink even more dramatically.
This is a short term move because Gold will soar this summer but first it might surprise us!
