This is capitulation ! This is the bottom COT ( commitment of traders) report is showing an extreme low in the positioning of non-commercials. As the old saying goes, when everyone is bearish, it's time to get bullish
GDX trade ideas
GDX GOLD MINER may bottom@24 or 21 zone to retest channel.GDX seems to be doing a BIG UPCHANNEL started from the 2016 low & retested at the 2018 low. If this lower channel is to be retested, GDX may bottom at the 24 green zone. This is the most probable since this is also the 2016 VWAP & the FIB 0.618 retracement from 2016 low.
However, if you look at the VOLUME PROFILE, then GDX may fall more to the 21 zone to create a divergence, ending wave 1 of wave III.
BULLISH longterm: Gold & gold miners will be a good hedge during rising inflation or recession. Every portfolio should have this insurance policy & some other defensives like XLV health, XLP staples & XLU utilities. TLT bonds will also rise during recession while US10Y rates go down in a deflationary environment. GDX may be just in the early stages of the longest wave III rally & has a long way to go.
GDXJ Junior miners fell a lot more so I think percentage wise it will have to rise more just like today. Miners tend to be the leading indicator for GOLD. Gold may fall more to the 1670 to 1760 zone. Gold recovering 1800 will be very bullish while GDX reclaiming 30.37 wave 1 top & previous neckline pivot will also be bullish.
Not trading advice.
GDX big fractal low is in?looking athte GDX fractal, to see if the 3 impuls lower lows and how it plays out
A golden opportunity for gold minersHello friends. GDX is the gold miner's ETF. We have heard recently from SentimenTrader that there is a good chance for a bounce over the course of the next month in this index based on several factors which we won't outline here. The odds are that we will bounce up for around 3 months, and then continue to move much lower.
Our EWT count agrees with this data from SentimenTrader, so it's two layers of confirmation: Forecast, and data backing the forecast. All good swing trades should have both!
Thanks for playing.
GDX- long term very bullishWe have some resistance to over come , but look very bullish over the long term.
GDX is ready for a breakoutGDX could breakout from falling wedge within days and hit 61.8% resistance
GDX: GDXcellent!GDX has proceeded to follow our primary scenario and has reached the support line at $28.83 by now. Next, it should drop below this mark and into the magenta zone between $27.49 and $19.52 to finish wave ii in magenta. Afterwards, the ETF should focus upwards, rise back above $28.83 and even further above the resistance at $40.13. However, there is a 30% chance that GDX could fail to turn within the magenta zone and could fall below the support line at $16.18 instead, thus continuing the descent.
GDX weakness and bullish failurePrevious analysis appeared bullish, but the price movements in the last two weeks since failed.
The weekly chart instead of following through with the bullish indications, reversed into a weekly gap down and further down for the next week. Weekly technicals are weak and suggest some bearishness.
A clear failure for the GDX ETF to break above the weekly 55EMA.
The daily chart shows how the weekly gap down developed, starting with a gap down that broke down of the gap range. This range was tested and failed for more downside in the following week. finding support at 29.
The technical indicators are bearish indicative, and downside target is currently 27.60.
Bearish breakdown in the works!
Gold Miners ETF, GDX bullish potentialThe weekly chart closed the week nice candle that had a long bottom tail, albeit a red candle, but bullish indication here.
The daily chart had GDX gap down on Friday's opening, then rally hard to close a bullish engulfing, spanning across a resistance zone. This can form the higher low point later next week.
Indicators are not yet bullish, but candlesticks are suggesting the end of the massive retracement with bullish signs and patterns.
GDX bounce but not out of the woods yetGDX found an interim bottom and bounced as expected, but it is not clear that it is bullish, as yet. the recet deep retracement put it out of the -3SD and it bounced back. But apprears to stall for a bit.
Daily technical indicators are not very bullish and this suggests a bit more baking time needed.
Weelly Gap area is the support, a a breakout of the downtrend line is necessary in the week to come.
Watch for it...
GDX Interim Bottom?Just as Gold and equities plummeted over the last 4 weeks, GDX was in no way spared, losing at least 25% from 4 weeks ago. An absolutely deep retracement following Gold prices.
Daily candlestick pattern suggest a brief consolidation at current levels, 30-31.
Do not yet see a bottoming pattern... not yet.
GDX at multiple support levels - Buy for long termThis is weekly GDX chart, testing multiple support levels - Channel lows, 200 SMA and long term support trend line. It's a good buy now for a quick bounce and also for long term. Given inflation is going to be hot for few more years, gold and gold miners will shine.
GDX: Gold Miners Geopolitical HedgeThe multi year cup and handle provides good upside catalyst to hedge further geo-political risk. I don't think the Russia/Ukraine war is going to be resolved anytime soon.
GDX is preferred over GLD here because GDX will have positive carry (from cash flows of the miners) and the spot price is high enough to warrant some production. This is a good place to start to build a small position; what I are looking for here is a stronger volume signature as confirmation; but because of the way gold trades (meaning something adverse happens) I would expect the rip up to be very violent and aggressive so it merits building a position now and slowly buying dips. MACD has crossed recently giving us some small confirmation of bullish price action.
GDX: Out of the BlueThis is GDX’s motto only literally because its descent from the blue zone between $43.86 and $39.30 was far from unexpected and indeed completely in accordance with our primary scenario. After completing wave (b) in blue in the blue zone, GDX has established itself on its way downwards, and we expect it to continue this trend into the magenta zone between $27.49 and $19.52 below the support at $28.83. There, GDX should finish wave (c) in blue and wave ii in magenta before rising above the resistance at $40.13. There is a 30% chance, though, that GDX could break through the bottom of the magenta zone and drop below the support at $16.18.
$GDXPutting $GDX on my radar... double bottom, possible C/H, breakout from trendline, now looking to 2020 highs.
AMEX:GDX
GDX In the last week, GDX erased the bullishness of the preceding month with one fell swoop of an Bearish Engulfing kind (weekly chart).
So expecting continued bearish candles would be expected as it follows through.
The daily chart supports that view so far, and it just broke down of the 55EMA, after a gap down. The good thing is that it did not really gap and run... at least not yet.
Technicals are overall bearish, at least for a bit. Expecting bounces off 36, maybe even 35.
GDX still in a uptrendTechnically, the broad PMs sector still look very bullish on the longer run, with the next support on the weekly MA50 and on the falling wedge VPVR, with the next target around 46$. We might find bottom and get ready for a rebound to the previous top in the early summertime. It will coincide with the LME trading desk stopping its activities in junes (like spoofing the PMs?) and around the same time the DXY might be reaching its previous resistance. Short time pain, thats about it...
LONG GDXAMEX:GDX
0.618 of Fib channel level coincides with the completion of the arc and median line of the Schiff at the $67 price level.
GDX offering a BUY ENTRYAMEX:GDX
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Elliott Wave View: GDX Pullback In ProgressShort term Elliott Wave view in GDX suggests cycle from October 2021 low ended in wave ((1)) at 41.61 as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Pullback in wave ((2)) is currently in progress with internal subdivision as a zigzag (A)-(B)-(C). The ETF is currently within wave (A) of ((2)) with internal subdivision as a 5 waves. Down from wave ((1)), wave ((i)) ended at 40.8 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 41.06. The ETF then extends lower in wave ((iii)) towards 39.31, rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 39.87. Final leg lower wave ((v)) ended at 39.25 which completed wave 1 of (A) in higher degree.
Wave 2 bounce is now in progress to correct the decline from April 18 peak before the ETF resumes lower. Internal subdivision of wave 2 is unfolding as a zigzag structure where wave ((a)) of 2 is expected to end soon. GDX should then pullback in wave ((b)) before another leg higher to end wave ((c)) of 2. Afterwards, it should resume lower in wave 3 to continue the correction to the cycle from October 2021 low. Near term, as far as pivot at 41.61 high remains intact, expect rally to fail in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
Try to run. Try to hide. Break on through to the other side.15-Year Resistance at play. GDX grinds through a battlefield of long term resistance in the $38 to $42 range. Once broken next big resistance @ $54.
GDX - Cup 'n Handle formationLarge-Cap gold miners change in price trend showed by Cup formation.
positive divergence in RSI and MACD (not included)
ROC above zero line, every other previous time this happened a bull run was fuelled.
Price above 200 Daily moving average
GDX continues rallyingTwo weeks ago, a break above 40 was expected , and it just closed the week above 40, in good fashion if I may say so.
The weekly GDX chart followed the previous week's long tailed doji and gapped up, ending near the week's high, with yet another lower tail. Bullish candlestick structure here. Technical RPM indicator is supportive of the momentum, although the MACD expects more.
The daily GDX chart is consistent with a continuing uptrend rally, with higher highs and higher lows. Technically supportive, both the RPM and MACD are crossed up and trending bullishly.
47.50 upside target in sight as projected previously.
