GLD trade ideas
Bullish expanding wedge on gldWith implied volatility being subdued, now my be a good time to go long some options. Very bullish on GLD long term.
Will history repeat itself this time with GOLD? Solid technical and fundamental backdrops for gold these days.
I find this historical view interesting!
Gold has the potential to be THE asset to own over the next decade.
GLD, GDX, USD & YieldsThe sentiment across the forex community is that the weakening US dollar pushes the prices of precious and base metals higher.
From this chart, it can be seen that US 10 year yields are actually the inverse in price action to the Gold Metals ETF/Miners ETF or Gold CFD.
With the US dollar more of a proxy for volatility.
Gold - The Long GameGold - The Long Game
Gold, in addition to other precious metals and commodities, has been rallying on inflation fears.
Here is our technical breakdown:
After forming a 7-year rounded bottom, $GLD rallied 43% from the March 2020 bottom, topping out at the 27% extension of $194.50 in August of 2020.
A successful breakout of our August 2020 downtrend targets a re-test of weekly supply of ~$182-$184.5.
Beyond that, a re-test of highs at $194.50, and extension to the 61.8% of $207.
-Will, OptionsSwing Analyst
Cup and Handle on GOLDIf Gold continues its uptrend next week, I think the breakout will be in motion. Otherwise, Gold will continue to be squashed for another few months or so.
What is interesting is what Gold rising will mean for other assets and the macro environment in general.
Currently, gold actually does tend to rise with stocks since its a bet on yields staying low
The higher yields are on treasury bonds, the lower gold moves.
You saw this on Tuesday when Yellen scared the market by implying rates may rise.
In the future, when this pattern completes, will this correlation still hold?
Will yields actually go negative if gold is allowed to move?
Or will the correlation break down?
Something to keep in mind.
Charlie Munger's O.G. go-to derp. respect the trend ya filthy animals 🤙🏽
the only trade I'm not trading, just buying dips atm...
Gold is signaling INFLATIONFEAR OF INFLATION? Gold continues to RISE! HARD ASSETS (gold / silver) ARE CONSIDERED AN INFLATION HEDGE AGAINST SOFT ASSETS (stocks).
Stocks have been at ATHs and there are signs that tell me that the FED will come in to put the breaks on the economy. By doing so they will
start to raise interest rates soon. Rate spike = Bonds drop = yield spike = people invested in stocks decide to move their money into government guaranteed bonds with less risk but same return. GLD closed above its 9 ema. Which signals volatility is ahead of us in the INDEX market
(stocks). ALL OF THIS TOGETHER tells me that asset rotation is occurring and we may see some shift on money flow
rotation it will be fun to see how it all plays out. Keep an eye on Uncle Jerome Powell
Weekly chart is telling me to go long around $163. Target 1 at $171. Target 2 at $183 and have some runners for Target 3 at a new ATH and psychological round number of $200.
$GLD MASSIVE Weekly Cup and HandleStarting in September of 2011 and the handle starting here on Aug 2020.
selling volume has declined and got a strong bounce off the 158.85 mark and look to be heading up for our third tap or our handle downtrend
When a bullish move occurs the moving averages respond, and the 9MA (white line) on the weekly has curled up nicely with a implied EMA cross over the 50 and 20 EMA (Purple and blue lines)
With metals roaring $GLD has seen some love here in the last few weeks, but as it approaches resistance we have to evaluate volume, and if investors are going to be putting money back in to Gold as market fears increase. More updates coming soon. Video update tomorrow.
Closing (IRA): GLD May 21st 163 Short Puts... for a .48/contract debit.
Notes: Decided to take profit here on this little up move, rather than hang out in the trade another 18 days, particularly since I collected a total of 3.97 in credits and rolled down and out on strike test. (See Post Below). 3.97 - .48 = 3.49 ($349) profit/contract. Will consider re-upping on a dip back to the 157 level (March 8th, March 30th lows).
Closing (IRA): GLD July 16th 145 Short Put... for a .26/contract debit.
Notes: In for 1.38/contract (See Post Below); out for .26 here; 1.12 ($112)/contract credit with 74 days to go. No sense in waiting another two months for the remaining $26 to come in.
Closing (IRA): GLD June 18th 149 Short Put... for a .20/contract debit.
Notes: In for a 1.88/contract credit (See Post Below), out for .20 here. 1.68 ($168) profit/contract with 49 days to go. No sense in hanging out another 49 days for $20 relative to the BP this is tying up.
GLD potential longmaby last leg up of this ascending broadening wedge to ath's then crash would be nice although markets looking unsure
Closing (IRA): GLD May 21st 155 Short Put... for a .17/contract debit.
Notes: Pre-vacation profit-taking/cleanup. In for 1.62/contract (See Post Below), out for .17 here; 1.45 ($145) profit/contract. Will re-up if we get weakness back to 155 or below. Still have May 163's, June 149's, and July 145's.
GLD Long SwingGold assets have fallen out of favor in recent months and the price is well off its highs. Price closed above a significant level that acted as resistance back in April and May of 2020 and the same level acted as support in November 2020.
GLD double bottomed in March at the $157 level and trended up since then.
With the RSI in check, MACD positive and the current price in close proximity to the POC line YTD I feel this is a good entry point especially given the increased talk of inflation risk.
Targeting: $171, $179, $183
inflation/correction hedgethe new bull structure in gold has begun, by evidence the GDX a little over cooked in the short term, but I'm liking the GLD for a nice stable long run up ~20% by November 2021. Sure, it might take a breather if there's some return to sanity in markets, etc, but this one is great for an easy night's rest while markets puke their brains out for a couple months.
The Plan Ahead: GLD Levels/Strategic Acquisition Via Short PutGenerally speaking, I'm a premium seller, taking advantage of high implied volatility to sell options to take a position in an underlying without actually getting into shares of stock. GLD, however, isn't particularly known for its volatility and therefore isn't the greatest standalone premium selling play. As of the writing of this post, 30-day implied is at 15.6%, which isn't exactly something to write home about. Consequently, while I am selling premium in GLD, I consider what I'm doing as more in the nature of a directional shot on weakness as a opposed to a pure "tons of room to be wrong" premium selling play and because of this, actually look at a GLD chart from time to time to consider whether given weakness is weakness I'm looking for and whether selling a put at a given strike "lines up" with given price action and is in an area in which I'd be comfortable with acquiring shares.
Pictured here is my full GLD ladder, with puts sold or rolled at various points in time. As is apparent from price action, I may have gotten a bit too aggressive with the 163, but was a little more thoughtful with the other rungs where I sold on weakness back to ~155, which is apparent support/resistance running back to June of 2020 and even got some longer dated contracts on where the 20 delta was coincident with lower support resistance in the vicinity of 147.
So, in a nutshell, here's the plan ahead:
a) Obviously, I'm going to have to manage the 163's. I don't like the level particularly as an acquisitional price point, since it's now apparent that the market will give me opportunities for cheaper, if not at 155, then even farther below at 147. Consequently, I'll look to roll the 163's down a smidge and out in time in the event that price doesn't stick above that level running into the May 21st expiry. Although my mindset is to generally talk myself into being "fine" with acquiring shares at the price point any given short point represents, I regularly revisit whether I have changed my mind given what has occurred since I got filled, and here, well, I'd rather be in shares at a lower price. As a result, I'm going to stay in the options for the time being, which I can kind of massage and manipulate via roll -- something I can't do if I get into stock, where my cost basis reduction technique is limited to selling call against.
b) On weakness back to 155, sell puts. Where? Well, I generally like room to be wrong, so it's likely to be ~20 delta, 45 days until expiry or greater. Those puts will be clear of the 155 and -- ideally, clear of that lower support/resistance at ~147, but we'll have to see when and if we get there where a 20 delta strike in the next expiry or expiries 45 days or greater line up.
For those without the buying power to go full on naked, consider spreading with the short put leg at the 20. For example, the June 18th 154/159 short put vertical with the short leg at the 20 delta was paying .57 ($57) as of Friday close on buying power of 4.42, a 13.1% ROC at max. Not that I'm going to do that here (again, waiting for 155), but pricing out the spread gives me an idea as to where I'll have to set up my tent in the event I want to get at least 10% out of the spread, and that's with at least a ~20 delta short leg.
GLD LongDouble bottom
SMA13/50 as support
OBV Crossed OBV SMA34
W%R crossed -50
Entry 166.5
Stop 162
Target 183
I am not a PRO trader. I trade option to test my trading plan with small cost.
The max Risk of each plan is less than 1% of my account.
If you like this idea, please use SIM/Demo account to try it.
Long GOLD @ 166 as a trade to hedge the melt UP or correctionsIn a world of billions and billions have been created by digital technology only, without real assets to back it up, Gold seems to be a sensible hedge. Technically it is forming a buyable bottom, with a target of $180.
Gold is hated and I never liked it more.The weekly chart of gold is a giant cup and handle, looking extremely bullish. There is a double bottom that printed on the shorter term charts which is a good sign. Everyone hates gold right now which is a good sign it bottomed, similar to BTC at the 3k levels last bear market. Money printing is still continuing at a rapid rate so it's just a matter of time before gold busts back into its all time highs and people start to like it again.
Gold is getting ready to break the current trendGold is currently in a big downtrend that began back in August 2020.
Despite that, recently it has been forming a possible bottom. RSI is forming a bullish divergence that is pointing Gold going up.
I still want it to confirm it breaking through 163$, the red trendline and the 200WMA. It's going to be hard, it may take weeks, but if it can break those levels we can see Gold back at the ATH.
Until we see all that I am neutral.
Gold breaking those levels could also mean harder times for stocks and even Bitcoin.
I think it is key to watch in what direction will Gold break the current short term lateral movement.
Have fun and be careful out there!
