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GLD trade ideas

Double Top in Gold That Strangely is Correlated with NividiaDid you know gold and Nividia have an 81% correlation? That's strange. (chart in comments) I see a double top in gold. TTM Squeeze firing on weekly, daily, 4 hourly and it's a continuation of a squeeze on the hourly. TTM Squeeze's usually bounce off the opposite side when it breaks/fakes out. Outside an exogenous event I see pm's taking the summer off and reawakening in the fall when the dollar tops out after the BOJ sells US treasuries after China devalues their currency after the dollar spikes when Europe cuts rates soon. It's going to be an epic chain reaction. The FED will cut rates heading into the election and if Trump wins he'll ride the last meme wave until it crashes and reinstitute a gold standard, or if Biden wins we get CBDC's. I'll be looking for low IV OTM calls in the fall after the FED cuts rates...
AMEX:GLDShort
by EmptyEternity
ICT Long setup Swing trade GLD👋Hello Traders, Our 🖥️ AI system detected that there is an H1 or higher timeframe ICT Long setup in US stock : GLD for Swing trade. Please refer to the details Stop loss, FVG(Buy Zone),open for take profit. For more ideas, you are welcome to visit our profile in tradingview. Have a good day! Please give this post a like if you like this kind of simple idea, your feedback will bring our signal to next better level, thanks for support!
AMEX:GLDLong
by ICT_Trader_SB
GLD: Bearish Alternate Bat HOP Level Reached: Reversal LikelyThe yields within the bond market are hinting towards a reversal in Gold and potentially other metals today, however, Gold right now is sitting at the HOP level of a Bearish Alt-Bat. If GLD were to reverse here, we would see it as a type 2 return which could result in Bearish price-Action beyond just the intra week but extended to the entire macro trend as a whole. I will be playing this via multiple OTM /GC Bear Put Vertical Spreads on the monthlies and may potentially start playing cheaper bearish plays on a week by week basis.
AMEX:GLDShort
by RizeSenpai
3rd try at breaking through long-term resistanceGold is showing a classic long-term cup and handle period. Spent about 7 years in the "cup" (long shakeout period from the bubble that had formed after the last financial crisis followed by an eventual rally to previous all-time high). It has spent over 2 years now in the "handle" (period of consolidation giving the appearance that price can't break through the previous all-time high). After a recent shakeout and false breakdown from the handle pattern, it looks like it wants to test the all-time high again and this time there's a major catalyst (flight to safety due to all the uncertainty recently with the banks and the potential for yet another financial crisis). Due to that, I don't think you need to wait for a breakout of the all-time highs around $195 in GLD but that would be a safer entry (a monthly close above that level). Of course another shakeout from that level could follow because if I have picked up on this potential trade, then many others likely have also. Anyway, I am just speculating and not a financial advisor, if you decide to follow this please trade at your own risk and diversify (this trade won't break the bank for me personally if it doesn't work out and it shouldn't for you either).
AMEX:GLDLong
by PatientContrarian
POTENTIAL YIELDS CRASHING MAY LEAD TO A SUPER BULLISH GOLDThe inverse relationship between yield and gold over the long term gives us an idea of what phase and dynamics of the market we are in. The bottoms of the yields are the tops in gold; interestingly the bottoms happen in 4-year cycles, especially in summer, July or June; while the tops are every 5 years in fall, September or October. Based on these dynamics, a potential and highly probable correction in yield (by any factor) would lead to a historic run to the upside for gold.... Few... ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- La relación inversa entre rendimiento y oro a largo plazo nos da una idea de en que fase y dinámica del mercado estamos. Los fondos de los rendimientos son las cimas en el oro; curiosamente los fondos suceden en ciclos de 4 años, especialmente en verano, julio o junio; mientras que las cimas son cada 5 años en otoño, septiembre u octubre. Basado en esta dinámica, una potencial y altamente probable correción en el rendimiento (por cualquier factor) llevaría a una corrida al alza histórica para el oro...
AMEX:GLDLong
by yamilbocanegra
GLD - SHORT POOTSGold prices have been on the decline recently, influenced by several key factors: 1. **Correction from Highs**: Gold had reached a record high last week, trading at $2,413.80 per ounce. Such spikes are often followed by corrections, as seen with the current downward movement. 2. *Rising Dollar and Treasury Yields**: The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields have both increased, which typically makes gold less attractive. As the dollar strengthens, gold, which is priced in dollars, becomes more expensive for investors using other currencies, reducing demand. Higher Treasury yields also make gold less appealing since it does not offer interest or dividends, unlike bonds. 3. **Economic Data Influencing Fed Policy Expectations**: Recent U.S. economic data indicated a 1.6% growth in GDP for the first quarter, which was below expectations. This situation affects market predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Initially, weaker GDP growth might suggest potential rate cuts, which would typically support gold prices as a safe haven and hedge against currency devaluation. However, the current market sentiment suggests that investors are possibly adjusting their expectations about the extent and timing of such cuts. 4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: The easing of tensions between Israel and Iran has also played a role. With fewer concerns about a potential wider conflict in the Middle East, the demand for gold as a safe haven asset has diminished. 5. **Technical Support Levels**: Despite the recent drops, gold prices are still holding above the $2300 mark. Analysts from Saxo Bank noted that there is key support around the $2250-$2260 area, indicating that prices might stabilize if they reach these levels. Can see easily a demand area at 202 area, longer term. Puts bought on todays micro double top. good luck!
AMEX:GLDShort
by SPYDERMARKET
Gold bull flag reviewI posted this chart in march on a bull flag that was starting to form with a projection to the dashed green. This is a great example of a longer term setup that rewards the patient. Of then these flags or wedges like to break out on strong volume and then dump for a retest, only to continue to project towards the target. If you had entered 6month to one year out calls on this setup youd be up 400-700%. I did not play this setup this time around but have played GLD bull flags in the past and like to use them as a way to get standard investment exposure to the asset with higher upside, this is also more capitally efficient. -For example a June 21st 2024 call was 300-450$ in that timeframe in March, these are now worth 1320$ -This was my same strategy for OXY longer-term calls
AMEX:GLDLong
by Apollo_21mil
Gaining Laser Vision: Sharpening Your Trading FocusIt's common for some traders to see things in black and white, worrying too much about the outcome of each individual trade and giving excessive importance to winning or losing on every try. This perspective is pernicious because it overlooks the inherent uncertainty in the process, which often leads to unnecessary emotional burden and is almost always detrimental to decision-making. Unlike gambling, trading is more akin to a marathon than a hundred-meter sprint. Both for the trader and the marathon runner, the key factor isn't the outcome of a single operation or the speed in covering a short distance, but rather maintaining a consistent pace that allows them to reach their goals. Just like a professional marathon runner doesn't run the entire race at the same pace, a trader will experience losses and gains at different times. However, the key is to maintain a steady and consistent progress, evaluated in blocks of operations rather than each individual transaction. In the case of the runner, it's the stopwatch that shows the pace and acceleration, while in trading, the appropriate tool for this purpose is basic statistics. Both serve the same function: to numerically describe the activity being carried out. However, while analyzing the past is important for evaluation purposes, one of the most crucial aspects is the ability to make future estimates based on partial and past readings. While these readings may not provide much context on their own, when aggregated, they become powerful. In trading, two of the most basic statistics are also among the most important: expected value (average) and standard deviation, as they are fundamental to adequately describe a large sample of operations. Additionally, along with an appropriate estimation of probability, they allow for the calculation of future scenarios through statistical inference. Precisely, the task of statistical inference involves aggregating individual data points to obtain a broader view, enabling us to look towards the future, always recognizing the uncertainty and the importance of probability. Thus, mathematics allows us to understand the irrelevance of a single data point, such as the specific outcome of a trade. Statistical inference allows us to anticipate future outcomes by aggregating past data points, allowing us to understand how irrational it is to obsess over being right in each individual operation. Like the marathon runner, what matters is the final result, so the truly important thing is to focus on the process and the discipline in applying the set of predefined rules that form the backbone of our trading system. Moreover, an approach that moves away from the need to be correct in each individual operation and focuses on maintaining process consistency has the ability to completely change the trader's relationship with their operations, avoiding unnecessary emotional burdens, which often are the starting point for disaster. A brief look at the scope of backtesting can help us better understand the power of statistical inference. It's relevant to note that while backtesting is an important and very useful tool for evaluating past performance, it completely lacks the ability to extrapolate (anticipate the future) because it only looks backward. Although it can calculate averages, standard deviation, and some other more advanced metrics, it always operates in a world where there is no uncertainty because all the data is known in the past. It also doesn't incorporate a probability estimation, making it impossible to construct future scenarios. In short, the limitation of backtesting refers to replicating past operating conditions and staying there. While statistical inference looks to the future, backtesting looks to the past. Stay tuned to read more about it! In summary, trading involves maintaining a constant pace, evaluating performance in blocks, and recognizing the importance of the process over individual results. This discipline and strategic focus allow us to look confidently towards the future, as if we had a window showing us the path ahead.
AMEX:GLDEducation
by CF_444
Probability Blueprint: Building a Winning Trading StrategyUnderstanding Probability in Trading Probability is a fundamental tool in assessing the success of a trading system and making informed decisions. In simple terms, probability tells us how often we can expect a system to succeed relative to the total number of trades executed. Imagine you have a trading system with specific rules that are repeated over and over again. Each time we apply these rules and execute a trade, we're making an attempt. The probability of success is calculated by dividing the number of successful trades by the total number of attempts, giving us a kind of "success rate" or probability of success. It's important to understand that a good measure of probability is only achieved after a large number of individual trades. It's akin to flipping a coin many times and counting how many times it lands on heads. The more flips you make, the more accurate your estimate of the probability of the coin landing heads on the next flip becomes. Probability also helps us anticipate the future performance of our trading system. Imagine that individual observations of gains and losses are the input for this process. Statistical inference allows us to predict the future value of our account based on past results. The intuitive concept of probability is simple but has significant implications in trading because it allows us to quantify randomness, essentially enabling us to eliminate uncertainty from our business. Here it's important to differentiate between the uncertainty of the outcome of a single trade and the certainty of the average result projected into the future. Since probability represents the average likelihood of an event occurring after numerous repetitions, considering the variability of individual observations, it allows us to estimate our potential profit or loss, establishing upper and lower limits of our returns and providing insight into the future performance of our trading system. In summary, probability in trading is a powerful tool that helps us evaluate the success of our system and make informed decisions. The better we understand probability, the better equipped we will be to manage our risk and achieve our trading goals.
AMEX:GLDEducation
by CF_444
In a world of chances, Probability is the KingThe Uncertainty and Probability in Trading In a world where uncertainty reigns and the future is always unknown, trading becomes a realm where probability plays a crucial role. Throughout history, no one has been able to predict the future of financial markets with complete accuracy. This uncertainty is inseparable from trading, as we can never fully anticipate market movements. Uncertainty is necessary in trading, as it is the origin of opportunities. Each trader may have a different view of the market, creating a balance between buyers and sellers, thus generating the possibility of closing deals. Recognizing uncertainty allows us to enter a world of probabilities. We understand that no tool enables us to accurately predict the future value of an asset. Therefore, each operation carried out in the market has an expected success rate that is never 100%. Any unexpected event, such as relevant news or surprising economic data, can alter market conditions and turn an apparently perfect trade into a loss. Uncertainty, therefore, is the foundation upon which trading is built. If it were possible to predict the future with absolute certainty, risk would disappear, and any trader would take every possible trade, becoming the richest person in history. However, in the real world, we know that success in trading is based on understanding and managing uncertainty. Probability in Trading: Probability in trading can be understood as the frequency of our successes. That is, the number of successful trades relative to the total number of trades made. Any trading system, no matter how sophisticated, is subject to successes and failures. Therefore, the most we can do is assign each trader an expected percentage of successes, understanding that there is always the possibility of loss due to the constant presence of uncertainty. In previous post , I have explained how uncertainty leads to risk, thanks to the quantification of return dispersion. Now, we are in a position to intertwine uncertainty, probability, and risk and better understand the nature of trading. This is a world where success is not guaranteed, but where risks can be managed intelligently. Ultimately, accepting uncertainty allows us to make informed decisions and maximize our chances of success by managing our risk, all in such a volatile and uncertain field as trading. In summary, probability is the king of a kingdom where risk is the queen, both becoming the two fundamental pillars of any successful trading system, whether done consciously or unknowingly. King and Queen in the world of uncertainty. Recognizing their influence allows us to manage them and navigate better in this world of opportunities and risks. Long live the King!
AMEX:GLDEducation
by CF_444
GOLD: NOT SO STRANGE AT ALLHi guys, if you follow daily the market here there is not a strange situation. Many guru claim that we're on the verge on something big, obviously I don't know but this movement was so called. When you find a pattern you don't have to act but react. If you are wrong positioned, you can close and change position, it's so easy. I was bearish 2yrs ago (if I well remember) on Gold, but since 2023 the pattern is clear and this breakout has confirmed that short the market is always a bad decision. Let's see if we play in the same way or we could see something different.
AMEX:GLD
by yellow_ag
GLD Potential Entry for Much HigherI do dowsing and have foregone technicals, so all my levels and timing is from this method. Last Friday when I asked about the next "big money" opportunity (which is a new question for my work), it went to gold. The last time I asked this question, the answer was for NVDA, which then rallied 200 pts. So at least this question, so far, is 1/1. Dowsing continues yesterday, and again this morning suggesting a long opportunity in GLD. I worked last night to get as best I could the exact scenario for this, and the chart depicts the results. Look for a low in the $193-94 area. It may get a bit lower, but then continuation of the uptrend to a target up around $243 in July. My last big gold idea in September or so, was only a few points from the last big low. Hopefully, this will have a similar outcome. GL!
AMEX:GLDLong
by JenRz