GLD Gold Trust CountLooking for another low in this move for a wave 4 ~175 then onto a wave 5 finish ~220
GLD trade ideas
Where dose the gold price go?MA 20 days line touch MA 5 days line. MA 100 days line still gong up. So watch trend.
Metals sold off yesterday because of bond yieldsIn a recent post, I showed the strong correlation between inverted real bond yields and gold and silver:
The hot inflation data yesterday and today drove nominal bond yields sharply higher. Bond investors demand higher yields when inflation is hot, which is why nominal yields rose. The rise in nominal yields broke a trend line. Here is the trend line break on the nominal 10-year yield:
The trend line break suggests it might be a good time to be short on treasury bond funds like VGLT, since bond prices fall as nominal yields rise-- however, keep reading, because as I'll note later in the post, you've got to beware of Fed yield curve control.
The picture for real yields is a little more complicated. The real yields chart above only shows data up to August 10, because the chart lags a couple days. Real yield is calculated by subtracting 10-year breakeven inflation from 10-year nominal yield. FRED's 10-year breakeven inflation rate was priced at 1.63% as of last update yesterday:
However, the new CPI number implies an annualized inflation rate in the neighborhood of 6.0 - 7.5% this year. Obviously no one expects that to persist for 10 years, but the 10-year breakeven inflation rate is bound to keep creeping upward after this hot CPI read. The question is whether it will move upward faster than nominal bond yields. If so, then real yields will continue to fall. If not, then real yields will start to rise.
It's possible, as a recent Seeking Alpha article argued, that the Fed is already exercising yield curve control to keep nominal 10-year yields in the range of 0.6-0.7%. If so, then we should expect nominal yields to stabilize here rather than to keep moving upward. If nominal yields do stabilize, then the rising 10-year breakeven inflation rate should continue to drive real yields lower and gold and silver higher.
seekingalpha.com
However, the trend line break in nominal yields suggests that if the Fed doesn't exert yield curve control, then we might see rising nominal yields outpace 10-year breakeven inflation for a little while, driving gold and silver lower. The next three or four days of real yields data should provide an important signal for where real yields and metals go from here. My best guess is that metals will bounce for at least the next day or two, and then we'll see from there.
GLD rally continues We are looking for a completion of wave (3) in GLD with and pending wave (4) pullback into 181 level. Wave (3) rally in progress for a move towards 192 before a corrective (a), (b), (c) pullback.
GLD Couple of reversal zone I'll be watchingIf GLD cannot hold the 180 area the green areas below may provide some support for a potential reversal or bounce play.
GLD - SELL OFF FROM $190 TO $192.50 RANGE0. We have been taking up short positions in GLD over $190 in the last week.
1. I thought we posted this, but we bought the August 21st 190 PUT;
2. I messaged a bunch of people so if you missed this, we apologize;
3. Looking for movement back to $175 range, and a nice profit on these PUTS.
Switched to puts on GLD - Should have got moreGLD Sep 25 puts. This was easy picking. Would have liked to get more. Well over extended to the upside.
GLD 1 hour Chart AnalysisSentiment: Neutral to Bearish
As we've observed in the past two weeks Gold has been in a significant uptrend due to its negative correlation with the $DXY (US. Dollar Index) as well as overall volatility in the markets. However as we all know the law of gravity states that all things that go up must eventually come down.
Reasons:
1. Rising Wedge Pattern and Breakdown Confirmation
2. Tweezer Bottom Candlestick Pattern
3. Tweezer Top Candlestick Pattern
GLD 1D: New Breakout & PositioningGLD's performance has caught my attention (as well as many others) over the last few weeks. It is hard to ignore that gold looks pretty attractive at the moment given the macroeconomic forces that are at play today. Before we dig into the technicals, let's remind ourselves of the following:
Fundamentals:
Central banks all over the globe lowering interest rates and printing fiat due to the pandemic.
A lack of faith in the political leadership in many western countries (which is very justified).
The dismal economic data. Bad economies make the previous two points more relevant.
Now let's take a look at the chart. GLD has just broken the 2011 Labor Day Weekend ATH. Keep in mind that is in nominal dollars. If we added inflation to the mix, we are still under the ATH of 2011 and way under the ATH of the 1980s. Nonetheless, the chart seemed to like the nominal ATH and broke right through on strong volume, currently sitting around 4% higher than the LDW 2011 highs.
It is pretty clear GLD is set to keep moving up for the time being. We have set a new high on strong volume, which is the first indicator that GLD is set for a new trend to the upside and out of the sideways trade we have been in for 9 years now. That being said, confirmation is still needed. The following points give me hints that we are due for a pullback (in order of importance):
Extensive 8 week rally. There are only a few times this has happened in the past, and most of those times resulted in down weeks afterwards.
The current price of GLD is around 9% away from the 20-day EMA, which is almost twice the difference in the 2011 highs. This is telling me that we may be overextended on the short term, but long term prospects look good (lots of momentum).
RSI is extremely overbought (most in decades).
Minor MACD divergence (3.5%).
Long positions around the 186-7 level look great, as there could be lots of upside with minimal risk via stop loss management. If the price keeps falling, the 175 level looks even better.
GLD looking exhausted, needs some consolidation /upside movementlove and hold GLD but its looking pretty extended. hoping to see a consolidation or a strong candle to signal continuation
GLD Wave (3) Bullish We are looking for a completion of wave (3) in GLD with and pending wave (4) pullback into 181 level. Wave (3) rally in progress for a move towards 192 before a corrective (a), (b), (c) pullback.
GLD/SLV Ratio - still normalizing!This ratio has dropped from 12.5 to 8.02. I still some potential for this to fall to the 7.56 level or so which would have SLV still outperforming GLD in the near term. Indicators looking like they are ready to turn. Watching this closely.
GLD Long There is still a lot of room for new investors to pile into gold and silver as the top stocks are now reaching their tops and the USD continues to be debased by endless money printing by the FED at least until next year.
Short term could see some pull back at around 180 for this stock, but long term, GLD , gold, silver is a long term solid hedge against USD inflation.
GOLD immediate bear scenario (low probability)If truly dollar is going to rally, GOLD should not close above the green line which also implies a handle may be uncovering.
In other words, next week put lotto can be very rewarding if enter at the correct timing. Let's see what happens tomorrow.
