GLD trade ideas
GLD - 5th time's a charm?I think so. Little different take looking at overall pattern dating back to the recession in 2008-9. It is very inviting. GLD wants to get into that top FIB level and has done the work at this FIB level creating a near flawless bull h&s pattern. Downtrend resistance from late 2011 and 2012 has been touched 4 times. Either this is the biggest fake out yet or gold is going much higher. Strong upside volume post liquidation scenario three weeks ago. NEM broke out of its similar pattern today. I think 5th time's a charm.
GLD - Big PictureGLD is right at overhead resistance that goes back to several peaks from the 2011-2012 time period. A break of this level will be significant. It touched previous high for this move earlier today. Watching this level closely. Breakout seems inevitable based on current environment and stimulus.
GLD - Head & ShouldersNEM broke out of its head and shoulders in a big big way today (see my idea from last week). This is also a textbook set-up. GLD still in original uptrend that it began last summer. All this stimulus is very positive for metals. Could use a breather or some sideways action but often you don't get a chance. If miners lead the metals then a breakout in GLD should be coming soon. Although NEM made new high, GDX still has not had a breakout so watching that closely.
MSI Momentum Strength Index 2x set Baiynd -Tom1trader Stochastic Momemtum Index - a true strength indix tsi with a moving average signal.
This uses the built in with modifications per Anne-Marie Baiynds recommendations - she uses a SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE
for the signal (signal length at 4x the short length seems to work best to reflect actual price action support or resistance)
see a YouTube vid (Note: settings in videio have been updated to her most recent recommendations in this code
video is entitled "The Most Reliable Technical Indicator I Have Ever Used"
Anne-Marie Baiynd also in talks / videos refers to the use of short / long of 4/20 and 6/40 and have combined both of them here
this gives a perspective on slightly higher time frame action.
USAGE: Generally above and below the black dashed zero line is long or short
KEYS: -Plot position relative to zero black, red overbought, green oversold and the gray lines at .25 -.25
Indicator action often more significant out side of the more "neutral" +.25/-.25 area
and near or above/below the rede/green dashed lines.
-Steepness of slopes
Slopes of smi plots relate directly to price action.
- -SMI blue relation to its smiple moving average orange and the longer moving average purple.
MAJOR FEATURE - The average acts as support or resistance to the SMI and the price unless breaking out
is finding primary/secondary support or resistance as well.
YOU CAN SEE WHERE SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE MAY BE ENCOUNTERED.(mcuh unlike most indicators)
My satandard caveat use at your own risk. Like anyone else I do not know what the next bar/candle is going to do
and I place all of my trades with a management plan in place for the worst case scenario.
That said enjoy your charting and trading.
This was coded starting with the built-in indicator "SMI Ergontic Oscilator / Indicator". You do this by within the Pine Editor select "New" tab and
choose the indicator that you want the code for. This populates the editor with the code for the built in indicator and you can modify it to suit your
purposes and save it / publish it and etc. Thanks for following this and Keep Smiling!
$GLD Rides Printing Frenzy, But the Crowd is on the BusGLD is riding high following a liquidity-strike pullback in the heat of the crash. And there's nothing but money printing ahead. However, CFTC positioning is a potential obstacle. The futures have already exceeded the early March highs.
A move back under $152 is a bearish development. Otherwise, the trend is your friend.
Gold is in an upswing, will it last?As the graph indicated there is been an upswing in GLD however, not strong enough to indicate a short trend YET.
Long on Gold (GLD) It's time to get long on GLD
try to buy around 145. as market worsens GLD should go up ... the more $$ they print GLD should go up ... plus summer time gold usually goes up a bit as well ... looks like all the stars are lining up
145 ish lines up with a 50% FIB retrace on the recent run ... it should get some support at the 89 EMA and the previous support happens to be around the same price.
Short againSPY is putting in a lower high at a retracement zone. Seeing triggers on small TF. Time to sell call spreads and/or buy puts again.
GLD - gaps to fill before next leg up!Looking for GLD to sell off another $5-$7 before next leg up. Be patient here.
Look at this descending triangle formation!!!It could either go up or down, but based on some of the indicators, etc (which I haven't posted) it may go downward. I suspect it will hit a support level.
GLD: Heartbreak city!Welcome to the Great Depression of 2020! Silver and Gold will not save you in your time of distress! This sucker will be going down, so don't be a sucker!
Toto, I don't think we're in 1820 anymore! We're not returning to a Gold Standard, we'll see an EBT standard first!
Rounded bottom on Gold - Long term view!Such a beautiful rounded bottom on Gold Monthly. Even after the pullback last week (read corona crash!) it managed to stay the course. As long as it doesn't violate the ARC, it is headed for the previous highs. There might be some resistance but it should eventually break and go berserk!
That is my view. Please do comment and let me know your views.
Gold is consolidating. Will it break up?Gold prices are consolidating. Given that the US Federal Reserve is printing up trillions of dollars to create an economic boost, it could be a good time to get into a long position.
LONG-GLDThe MACD cross on 3/25 and the up coming MA cross over 9EMAx50MA give me reason to believe we will see a rally in GLD. Obviously the uncertainty in markets since COVID19 and sell off of GLD make GLD a relatively safe play. I am looking for $173 per share as the cup & handle pattern plays itself out in the coming weeks.
GLD to Short, Double topCondition:
1. Supply Zone Confirmed
2. double top in 60m Supply zone
3. Uptrend line break.
Entry below Supply Zone 153
Stop: 156
Target1: 147; risk/reward=1:2
Target2: 140; risk/reward=1:4
This is a trading school homework. I need 6 months to practice trading plan.
If you like it, thank you for your support. Please use SIM/Demo account to try it, until my trading plans get high winning rate.
GLD RSI Failure swing may lead to 34.44% drop like in 2008The GLD price action during this recent market crisis appears very similar to 2008. If gold prices move the same way they did in 2008, we'll see a drop from here followed by a strong rally.
Is Gold a Good Safe Haven During a Market Crash?Gold is widely perceived as the best safe haven for your capital as the stock market goes through a bear market correction or crash.
But is this really true?
For gold to be a good hedge it would need to move in the opposite direction (have a negative correlation) to the broad market index, in this case, the S&P500.
Looking back 15 years we can see this is not the case for Gold (GLD) versus the market.
2005 to 2007
Gold out-performs the S&P500 with 52% gains compared to 25% for the S&P500
2007 to 2009
During the Financial Crisis, Gold provided a good safe haven for 7 months until it lost all of its gains.
2009 to Present
The S&P 500 goes on a staggering bull run making 481% to January 2020
Gold makes 138% from 2009 to 2012 moving in correlation with the market, then suffers a serious crash wiping out 42% of its value. The crash and stagnation lasts 8 years.
Gold is still 13% lower than its previous all-time high.
My Observation
1. Gold might provide a very temporary solution as a safe haven during the early part of a stock market correction.
2. During the Credit Crisis, Gold should have been a perfect store of value because as it seemed the Fiat Currency system was failing gold would have been a great replacement currency along with silver. But that did not work out.
3. Gold is only a safe haven is people think it is.
4. Since the 2009 market bottom, Gold has increased by 65% and the SP500 232%
Would I use Gold as a safe haven?
Personally no.
Not based on this evidence.
But in the short-term it may provide relief until people stop believing.
What is a good alternative? Holding cash and dollar-cost averaging into the market again as we near the bottom.
If you like this analysis, please like and follow so you dont miss future updates.
Thanks for reading, Barry
