$GLD BreakoutKeep an eye on unemployment report coming out Thursday 12/26. Market at all-time highs again; it doesn't last forever.
GLD trade ideas
GLD - Moving Higher!Gold appears to be making a series of higher highs and higher lows after bottoming last month. Volume drying up during correction phase and MACD and RSI are favorable. Time of consolidation is also looking in line with prior consolidation periods. Be patient. 2020 is going to be a good year for the yellow metal.
GLD/SLV - Ratio revisitedGLD/SLV ratio is starting to roll over. Looks like a rally in gold and silver is finally coming. A break of the bottom support line and I suspect that we will see 7.50 as a first level of support. Remember this ratio falls as gold and silver rise primarily due to silver's ability to outperform on a percentage basis as gold has a law of large numbers issue going on. Looks like we are getting close. This chart follows the overall market fairly well when you look at the NYSE. Market can't rise forever. Continuing to be patient.
$GLD long on a break above $140, upcoming bullish seasonalityAMEX:GLD - $GLD is in a down trending channel, a break above the top, around $140, should challenge the recent high of $146.82, we also have a strong seasonal upward move coming.
Gold - I think we replay July 2008 in terms of Gold fractalsShould see sharp down over next few weeks
Long-term potential for gold remains strong!• Technical analysis update for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD).
• Long-term bullish continuation anticipated once current correction is completed.
• Looks like a deeper retracement may come in the near-term, before resumption of the rally.
Long-term breakout
Following the August 2018 swing low of $111.06, GLD rallied 32.2% to the September 2019 high of $146.82. That rally found resistance in the area of Fibonacci confluence, including the 50% retracement of the full downtrend measured off the 2011 peak, which was at $143.04. Note that the 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) was quite overbought at that point (83.52), the most overbought since the extreme 2011 peak (83.87).
A bullish crossover of the 10-week exponential moving average (ema) and the 34-week ema occurred at the beginning of 2019. Most importantly, the rally took GLD out of a bottoming pattern to a 71-month high. Once $131.15 (July 2016 swing high) was broken to the upside price advanced to the September 2019 high with conviction, as there was barely a pullback of any significance.
Normal retracement to date
As is normal in financial markets, once a breakout of significance occurs (multi-year breakout off bottom in this case), price will retrace some degree of the advance towards the breakout area. The degree of retracement will vary and may provide some insight into the characteristics of the trend pattern. Following the retracement, a resumption of the initial trend can be expected unless shown otherwise.
To date, the retracement has reached $136.19, thereby completing a minimum Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% (at $136.40). Volume has been falling as price declines. Note that price has fallen below and closed below the 10-week ema (blue line) for the past five weeks and tested it as resistance for the past four. This is a sign of short-term weakness and points to further selling pressure unless something changes (such as daily close above last week’s $139.57 high).
Multiple lower possible support zones
If price does continue to fall, then watch the next three potential support zones for subsequent signs of a bullish reversal:
1. 133.88 – 133.00
2. 129.78 – 128.32
3. 125.20 – 124.72
Each price zone is derived from multiple Fibonacci retracement and projection levels, as well as prior price pivot levels.
GKD Bull FLag monthly
just now
We have a Bull Flag on the monthly for GLD, Price movement is expected to be around $12-$15 I'm going to play the options on this; buying the 45 Strike on Exp 20 March 20, if I want to lower my risk, I can turn it into a debit spread by also selling the 150 strike onEx [ 20 March 20 .. as of the writing of this the debit spread would cost $59 with a profit potential of $441, A very nice Risk to Reward.
Iron Fly GLDIron fly on GLD
134/139/139/144 EXP Jan 17
0.17/0.47/0.52/0.144
Credit collected was $296.
Max loss is 204.
Looking to profit $75, order set to take profit at the 25% point.
GLD/SLV Ratio - Ready to fall!As you can see today's rally in the market hit resistance at the underside of the support channel. SLV disproportionally lower than GLD today helping the spike get there. This is directly correlated with SPX/SPY failing at 3118. This has a long way to go on the downside. SLV should outperform GLD very shortly and the market should roll over at the same time. Typically a run in silver and gold will cause this ratio to fall. As you can see as GLD and SLV digested their summer gains and the market reached new highs this has made it to an inflection point. Too many other indicators out there confirming all these inflection points. Keeping fingers crossed here.
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GLD - still a little room to run!Not looking for too much more in this rally but I do see GLD making it ti resistance. Maybe another day or two as the overall market picks up downside momentum. Just doesn't feel like the turn to me but keeping fingers crossed that achange of character is coming about.
GLD - HoldingToday GLD held the 2014 breakdown point and it made a higher low than two weeks ago. Still in the downtrend channel until proven otherwise but feel a change in character coming. Miners in a similar downtrend pattern but made a higher low. Feels like some coiling is happening. Being patient.
GOLD SHORT (not long term)Everyone expected Gold to GET a nice incline after the FED lowered rates. That of course did not happen so fair weather investors are jumping ship. Once the correction is made GOLD will rise again, tis the season, check historical charts. I am going GLD Short for the week. Next week I will re look at the Stock.
the last stand-100 as the USD flexs before decades of downfall... the monthly fractal obelisk structure has started shaping up a couple months ago on all markets and will rally hard. as all final stands do. What you are about to find out tho...is IF you balanced your dollar properly the entire time, since its creation...you'd have a much more controlled and less painful ride back to balanced data..
the amount of imbalance across the global financial markets has never been this high...bitcoin doing its thing has just set things to a laughable hollywood type of scenario which ends with a big bang.
GLD | GOLD likely pullback to 133There's a Bearish XABCD formation highlighted on the chart,
Along with an ABCD ending around $132
Expecting a pullback to $133 where Phantom Midline should act as primary support.
Indicators used. by @coinobsalgos
XABCD Scanner
Phantom Script
GLD/SLV Ratio - time for a correction?This chart depicts the GLD/SLV ratio since the start of the almost 11 year bull market. As you can see the ratio reached a high at about the time the market starting crashing back in 2008 of 8.8, and hit a low of 31 when gold topped out in 2011 (those boundaries defined by the FIB chart). It has steadily climbed within two very defined channels to new highs as gold and silver have been out of favor for most of the 11 year raging bull. Gold and silver did have a brief shining moment in 2016 while the market digested its 5 1/2 year gains before the next leg of the bull market (see drop in ratio at start of 2016). During the last leg the ratio reached a historical 100 year peak at 9.4 (a 94 gold to silver ratio). During gold and silver's shining moment that began in June this year you can see the 94 peak collapsed (right at the support channel of the first channel) through the second channel and gave way to a ratio of 8.0 as silver outpaced gold's gains on a percentage basis. The ratio has worked its way back to 8.6 as gold and silver have consolidated their big moves that started in June. As you can see it has stalled right at the underside of the second channel as well and should continue to fail as gold and silver start to rise again. A break of 8.35 (which represents the 2015 top before the 2016 low of 6.5), which is marked by the horizontal line and the red .236 level on the inset FIB chart marking the 9.4 top and 8.0 bottom, and the flood gates should open again. If history is correct, and this chart follows a similar pattern to that of 2008-2011 (even at a slower pace), this is the time to buy silver (and gold ) and protect your equity investments that appear to be due for a breather.
