Double triangle breakoutA larger descending triangle breakout along with a smaller ascending triangle breakout
GLD trade ideas
erm... buy that damn dipdip due to a short term spike in DXY. but with fed cuts coming will help usd sell off. will it be a .25 or a .50 bps? to be continued
GDL - Wedge formation Long setup Gold itself is setting up as flag with potential target of 1520 with weekly chart showing a wedge and target of 1610.
GLD (NEW) - Another way to play the move on gold. Possible entry if gold breaks 1431 or break of 135 on GLD. Stop signal 130.43, Target 145.83. Could Consider October 137 calls currently 3.13.
GLD Bugs are back!With the devaluation of currencies globally and negative interest rates plaguing over 25% of sovereign government interest rates, Gold has come back in favor breaking their resistance of $129.00. Broad indexes are at all time highs and fear of devaluing currencies will create a run for a "store of value" trade which can also be perpetuated by a "fear trade" where Gold performs historically well. $143, then $154, and finally can test $172. We'll see.
Low profit opportunity on GLDA friend suggested to look at GLD. I saw the bull flag and went on it for a 2% risk.
GOLD VS BITCOIN- WHAT?!GOLD and Bitcoin seem to have found similar trend recently.. Does this continue??
Possible Gold Breakout Upside Unknown ...Due to extreme weather and massive interplanetary stimulus sends gold oz over $2000 making new all time highs...
BUY BUY BUY or SELL SELL SELL
its your call... or put
Bull Flag on GLD or GoldWe seemed to break out above the flag today after the FED confirmed rate cut which is bullish for Gold. The volume on this bull flag is perfect, you can see volume was moving higher on the flag pole, then dropped on the flagging, and is now moving up on the flag pole up. Confirmation is above $135 my measured target is $140.22. From here that is roughly a 5% gain and the last move up took place over only 6 days. If you want to trade this set stop at $131.75 which is roughly 1% downside risk give this trade a 5:1 risk reward ratio.
$GLD - Gold Rally Taking a Breather?After laying dormant for most of 2019, Gold prices ($GLD as a proxy) took off in late May/early June 2019 and have experienced a nice rally since then, rising 7.7% in June 2019 and posting its best monthly gain for the year so far.
However, it appears that the rally may be taking a breather. As of July 5th, prices have remained in the Fibonacci 100 zone($135.55), but have been fighting hard to stay within this level, especially as prices experienced a gap down on the same day.
Further, since peaking on June 25th, the RSI has been falling, showing lower highs and lower lows, indicating that market sentiment is beginning to stall.
Given this turn of events, we expect $GLD to fall to $128.94 over the next few weeks.
GOLD FOR THE WIN
3 YEAR PRICE TARGET:
GLD $320
NGD +$14 (ALREADY LOCKED IN $.78)
CLEAR BREAKOUT, MIGHT SEE $1,550 - $1650 GOLD PRICE EOY
Bullish on $GLDWith the first rate cut of the cycle around the corner, it's a good time to look at what $GLD did during the previous time rates were cut. It looks like $GLD kept rising as rate cuts and QE announcements kept coming.
Update on GoldThe ABC correction is near complete having completed the Triangle and now nearing completion of the quick "thrust" Elliot calls for after a Triangle. C equals A about where it is now. Corrections often end at a previous forth wave, which could be now or up to 145 (1,450 cash).
Then look for the longer term bear to continue with a complete retracement, and then some, of the ABC upward correction...neutral for now, but longer-term short...
A fifth wave is here for GoldOK friends, please note that to get a cohesive view of this Elliot Wave analysis of GLD you would have to see my first post (Gold is going down soon- then up) on Mar. 13 as the scope of the wave count is tool large to represent in 1 chart. In that post I was of the view that GLD needs to dip to complete a 4th wave then head up and I was right, one week after posting we topped out very slightly higher than the time of publishing and we subsequently dipped to within roughly a quarter of my target; 119.54 was the actual low vs. an estimate on my part of 119.31 or lower. Where I was wrong was with regards to timing, as you can see from this chart the 4th wave was very protracted.
It is notable that I did update my idea on May. 1 with the following comment: 'Still do not have sufficient evidence to enter a long position, we are at RSI resistance, have retraced 50% of the most recent drop, and may head back down. Based on a Fibonacci timing tool the 9th and 29th of this month will be dates worth watching for potential trend reversal.' It seems that the 29th of May was of significance in hindsight. Though I've been bullish for a few weeks now based in the break above the Feb. 20th high I can say in technical terms that the 5th wave is officially in progress (even w/ out breaking above that high there is such a thing as a truncated 5th wave but that's beyond the scope of this post.)
Now the question is where do we top out? There is more than one way to answer this, based on standard Elliot wave theory one should look to the 61.8 - 100% range of the rainbow colored Fibonacci region (based on the combo of waves 3 & 4) which gives us a wide price range. It is also notable that the grey shaded region to the right of the graph shows fib extensions that overlap the rainbow region, at the end of the day the best place to take profits would be in the low 130s. Thanks for reading, questions and criticisms welcome.
THE WEEK AHEAD: GLD, GDXJ, GDX, SLV, USOEARNINGS
No options highly liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week.
BROAD MARKET
EEM (15/18)
QQQ (19/19)
IWM (19/18)
SPY (19/15)
EFA (10/12)
One word ... . Well, maybe two: "Weak sauce," with ranks in the low quarter of their 52-week ranges and background implied at sub-20 across the board.
SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
Top 5 By Rank: GLD (92/16), GDXJ (71/33), SLV (64/21), GDX (48/28), USO (47/43) TBT (52/24).
Pictured here is a GLD Synthetic Reverse Jade Lizard, explained in the post, below. For those of a more nondirectional bent, the Aug 16th 127/140 short strangle is paying 1.72 with a 70% probability of profit, although I'd recheck that setup at New York open for delta balance ... .
GDXJ: August 16th 34 short straddle, 3.45 credit with >expected move break evens, delta/theta -11.03/3.02.
GDX: August 16th 25 short straddle, 2.12 credit with >expected move break evens, but a little on the weak side in terms of credit collection. Delta/theta: -10.52/1.84.
SLV/USO: August has yet to populate ... .
In petro, my go-to is generally XOP (34/35), but the August expiry has yet to populate. Given the size of the underlying, I would probably continue to short straddle it here, assuming that it's still paying greater than 10% of the price of the underlying (i.e., >2.70 or so in credit for the short straddle nearest at-the-money).
