Expired GLD Weekly outlook. 2nd WK SEP 2023Expired GLD Weekly outlook. 2nd WK SEP 2023
> NEUTRAL 📊 CORRECT
Closed Price: 178.08
Target Price: 178.48 | Strike Price: 178.59 SEP11
Upper Range: 183.91
Lower Range: 173.05
GLD trade ideas
GLD Garbage Lousy Drek?Well it looks like GLD is going to reverse. Let’s see how severe and protracted it is.
Short setup at $179 on GLDMy attention has been brought the past couple days to gold. It still hasn't reached my lower targets and we're getting much closer to September where I think the guidance is suggesting a longer term low. I'm still learning though as all my ideas come from my work dowsing.
I do, however, like that it's been trending down into that date. There is a suggestion of some serious selling coming, so I want to journal this one. I'll look to get in short around $179 today, assuming it reaches it and my readings still suggest a reversal down.
I will give it 3 weeks, but don't think it's going to take that long to hit my lower target. That's it.
GLD - is that it?Very very rarely will I preemptively get into a position before price breaks an MA of merit. This is one of those times. With GLD under the containment MA of 2 days of highs for 8 days, the containment ratio of 4+ is very rare and I would argue a case where one might get preemptively long. Let’s see what happens the rest of the week maybe into next. Catching the falling knife is rarely wise but this is the one case where perhaps the knife has already hit the ground.
Levels to trade GLDContrary to popular belief, gold is a risk asset, and as such, cannot serve as a reliable store of value. It also doesn’t offer better protection from inflation than equities. That is true for the long term; however, in shorter periods, the yellow metal can be a profitable trade, specifically at times of declining real interest rates and when the economy is weak. Besides, gold, with its zero-to-negative correlation to equities, can help achieve a broad portfolio diversification, which is important, as each asset class can help mitigate different risks in times of increased economic, political, and market uncertainty.
SPDR GOLD can show you Path of GOLDThe price is at the beginning of wave 5 of wave B. After the end of this wave, the corrective wave C will begin.
It is very likely that after the correction, we will see a strong upward movement.
Something to watch in GLDThis is really early, but I know people like to check on gold and it's been fairly choppy and dull.
I attempted an outlook for the year kind of reading on it in April with dates for lows and highs, etc. The results of the dates were off a day or 2 usually, and weren't necessarily reflective of the bigger swings. I will keep playing with this idea though.
So, I checked in for an update, and there is something consistent from that reading to today's, and that is that there is a buying opportunity in September. And I also get a consistent low number to watch for, and that is the price of $173-74. (4% from here).
There can by some seasonality in the 4th quarter in gold, so this lines up as well.
The specific date (plus or minus a couple days) is Sept. 12th. The reading in April was referencing September as the "best buying opportunity", so at least that is consistent.
I will set alerts at $175 to keep an eye on things, and may post this idea again closer to the date. In the mean time I suppose you could try to short it because the advice is for multiple days down.
GLD in the zoneGLD sitting just below the zero slope MA of lows. Definitely interested in upside if it jumps.
$GLD losing it's luster?AMEX:GLD - Weekly chart measured moves.
Gold has out shined since months now. Looking at the chart question remains - Can history repeat itself?
Any thoughts?
GOLD to OIL prices the RATIO ANALYSIS ( and meaning )GLD is an ETF tracking gold futures prices across a blend of durations. USO is a similar ETF
for crude oil. I was interested to see what the ratios look like and considering the trading
advise of buy low should I be trading and bartering gold to get oil or viceversa. It is applicable
for be because I am in part a commodities trader and has some activities on the leveraged forex
market.
On the daily chart dressed with a set of two long term anchored VWAP standard deviation lines ,
and some horizontal static resistance lines added, it is obvous to me that the ratio is
currently sitting on the mean VWAP band for support confluent with the lower trendline
of the ascending megaphone pattern which is typically considered demostrative of increasing
volatility. I conclude that if I am a barterer I should trade my oil for gold. If I have gold only
and dry powder I should increase my gold holdings. If I prefer trading oil I should short the
market. This is because the ratio is set up to rise. The means that gold will rise or oil will
fall or some hybrid combination of that. My entry here is when the volatility on the indicator
is green and crosses over the running average.
This is a simple demonstration of how charting with TradingView can help a trader make well-
grounded and profitable trading decisions while lowering risk and making profits more probable.
What do you think of this analysis? What are your agreements or disagreements with it?
GLD is the high volume EFT that is tracking the gold bullrun which started two weeks ago on July 3rd after
a downtrend for two months starting on May 2nd. This is not a leveraged ETF
as so a bit less volatile than JNUG or GDXU. On the 2H chart, I have added a
VWAP band line setup anchored into the pivot high.
On my analysis:
1. GLD is ascending through VWAP band lines in a VWAP breakout.
2. Volume is steady
3. The Price Volume Trend Oscillator went from a diminishing negative/red histogram
into green on July 5th.
4. On the zero-lag MACD, the lines crossed while under the histogram reversing a descent on July 17th and marking the end of a minor correction of the uptrend then confirmed by those
lines crossing the zero-line the following day.
I conclude that GLD is set up for a long trade. While others might simply take a trade of
stocks I will use call options to take a long position. My target is $190 between the
second and third positive standard deviations of the mean VWAP. I will purchase 50
options contracts for about $37 each expiring August 4th. I will hold all of them until
July 27th and liquidate half of them at the high of day on that Thursday expecting
Friday to be a down day. The remaining 25 contracts will be sold at the rate of
6 contracts per day until the overall position is closed. Overall, I expect to realize
200% in profits over the 12-13 trading days in the trade. I plan for a 15% stop loss and
expect the trade to be above break-even with the first stop loss advance which I expect
will be on Friday.
GLD - get long dammitLike I said. Is it too late now? Not sure. But I’m long and will just trail my stops.
GLD - Get Long Dammit!Well GLD is really in the pivot zone now. Will it just trigger the long order on its own or will it need news, a number or something else? I have a boat load of OTM calls waiting. Stay tuned!
GLD , a bullish gold ETF LongGLD on the 4H chart has downtrended for 2 months. However, the supertrend is that of a
gradual trend up as shown by the green ascending line. The two indicators point to a reversal.
The MACD shows a cross of the K / D lines under a positive histogram and impending cross
over the horizontal zero line. The Chris Moody with dual RSI plots shows the RSI on the
weekly time frame in black to be trending down from 70 and settling at 50. The daily time
frame in blue bottomed at 29 and is now 44. This is a bullish divergence of the RSI as compared
with the price trend. Overall I expect a reversal with a trend up targeting $192 which is the
approximate pivot high of early May also confluent with two standard deviations above
the mean VWAP anchored to 2/1/23. The stop loss is to be set below the ascending support
at $176. Accordingly, a potential loss of $2 until the stop loss is raised to break-even
once price gets to $182.00. After that, the trade will be both risk and stress free.
GLD - 3 years of a rangeGLD trapped under the highs for 3 years. Now just under the containment MA and that is almost the same as long term zero slope MA. This could be a big week. Do we get a run at the ATHs this month or at least through the summer?
GLD - Bullish OutlookIntermediate-term formation pattern appears to be a wave extension completing soon followed by a move higher. Looking for stronger support at the 40 week moving average a few points lower but willing to buy a pilot position at this level.
My main GLD position is an Iron Condor option position selling puts at the 165 strike and calls at the 200 strike. Adding shares at this level give some protection should GLD surge above 200 prior to the option position's expiration.
Downside risk appears to be down to the 160 level should the Long Term Reverse Head and Shoulders formation build out. More GLD updates should price break lower.
GLD is the low in?GLD appears exhausted to the downside. Now we just wait and see if this is a true low and how far and fast the retracement.
Gld - bluster or luster?I get the sense that GLD is a low today maybe tomorrow. Happy to have call stops waiting just above current price action.
Gold - War Breaking Out?Many would like to perceive the pause in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve as a bullish take for markets at large. However the forward direction by Powell signals towards the bigger picture; inflation cannot be stopped by the Fed.
March 2022, shortly after the invasion of the Donbas region by Russia the Fed began significant hikes in the Discount rate. See comparaison to SPX.
This has put pressure on domestic and international markets. As foreign central banks try to follow along with hikes to avoid capital outflows, they have not been able to keep up. The international value of the US Dollar has risen considerably since January 2021, the trend accelerating as flight to quality has driven capital towards the US in the face of war. See below US02-year and US10-year treasuries plotted on the same axis, compared to the US Dollar Index.
During this time, the price of gold COMEX:GC1! has made a few rallies towards the 2011 high, relating to geopolitical and sovereign risk.
This price level in gold could prove very significant moving forwards. The market has indicated towards a long-term trend. It should be noted, that entities involved in potential geopolitical conflicts will move assets accordingly in advance.
It is inevitable that war will continue to escalate, and so long as it does inflation will persist across the globe. In spite of capital flows towards the United States, global scarcity driven by shortages, insurance rate increases, impaired logistics and corrupt governments will continue to erode the domestic value of the dollar. The inflation we have been experiencing is war inflation, and no central bank has the power to stop the reactionary shock in financial markets that occurs when capital must seek cover.
There appears to be political turmoil in Russia, but the question unanswered is why? It must be understood, that there is a strong belief in Russia that Putin has been too restrained by only invading the Donbas region. What is being stoked by NATO, is an ethnic conflict. Subtle difference in language and religion separate two relatively new nations, Russia and Ukraine. Kyiv the home of the Russian Orthodox church, established in what was the capital of a greater empire, collapsing in the late 1800s. That is to say, the contested regions in this war are hotbeds for an ethnic conflict. Paramilitary groups in Russia and Ukraine (of which there are many) have quite a well known and gruesome history between them, despite receiving little attention since 2022.
With neither government viewed at large as capable, there is a massive tailwind risk with the US' approach to funding. It seems well established by now there is nobody accountable for how the weapons and munitions being shipped to Ukraine are being handled, and Nazism is rampant in the army. In addition to repeated attempts on Putin's life, the US is now discussing giving Zelensky of Ukraine access to nuclear weapons.
With a "coup" having now taken place, it must be clear that there is a quickly growing threat of war escalating quickly. No attempts at negotiation have been made by Ukraine, despite massive loss of life on both sides. Therein lies our why. Consider the paramilitary groups are now willing to march against Moscow, what prevents them from marching on Kyiv? The negotiation between them has been settled, a new leader appointed and separation from the Russia government is complete. The dogs of hell let loose.
Gold, Silver COMEX:SI1! and mentioned in a previous post, Natural Gas NYMEX:NG1! , are all forming lows after making new major highs. Inflation will persist and push the nominal price of gold up, but capital flows will nullify that effect to NY COMEX gold prices, as AMEX:GLD follows. This market is pushing towards a significant breakout, and this will move the price as global markets respond by moving capital. Gold becomes a target for flight to quality at this time.
Friday was an ideal major low, the market may continue to make minor lows but a sustained rally to 2000 and beyond should be considered a bullish sign.
GLD Bullish Outlook 06/26-30/2023AMEX:GLD is hot on my watch list as uncertainty in the world markets should cause investors to park their money in gold. AMEX:GLD is down -4% for the quarter and is due for a rebound.
Technical Analysis:
AMEX:GLD has been consolidating in a falling wedge and is approaching the .618 retrace at 177.24.
I lean bullish on AMEX:GLD as long as we don’t break the falling wedge structure and can hold above the gap at 176.18. I am expecting a gap fill to the upside at 181.37.
Bears will want to see this falling wedge invalidate with a gap to fill to the downside at 173.80.
Upside Targets: 178.75 → 179.84 → 181.08 → 181.97 → 183.21
Downside Targets: 177.78 → 176.82 → 176.20 → 174.83 → 174.46
Bullish on GLDHi again gold : look at this nice area to going long on Gold ......
I predict more than 2100 dollar per ounce for gold at the end of the year.
stay safe in peace.
