Intel | Fundamental Analysis | MUST READ....Intel had a dynamic start to 2021, with shares rising rapidly in Q1 due to news that the company may be beating rival Advanced Micro Devices. However, Intel failed to maintain its remarkable momentum, and the stock gave up all of the ground it had gained at the beginning of the year.
Intel stock is now trading near the bottom of its 52-week range. Wall Street is also not overly optimistic about the company's prospects, with an average share price target of $54, indicating little upside from current levels.
Considering the problems Intel faces, investors will apparently think twice before buying it, while existing investors might consider cutting their losses by selling the stock. Let's look at both sides and figure out whether it makes more sense to buy or sell Intel stock.
The biggest reason investors may want to sell Intel stock is because of the company's absence of competitive advantage, which has led to sluggish revenue growth and declining margins over the past three years.
Intel has been forced to cut prices on its chips to compete with AMD, while buyers flock to the competitor. This is reflected in Intel's latest quarterly numbers, with its non-GAAP third-quarter revenue up just 5 percent from a year ago to $18.1 billion.
AMD, on the other hand, is in great shape, with its third-quarter revenue up 54% from a year ago to $4.3 billion, boosted by growth in all segments of its business. What's more, AMD also raised its full-year forecast and expects 2021 to end with 65% revenue growth. Intel's non-GAAP revenue estimate of $73.5 billion means an average one-digit drop from the previous year when revenue was $77.9 billion.
Even worse, analysts don't see the possibility of Intel improving next year. The company's revenue is expected to remain flat and earnings fall to $3.70 per share, down from $5.28 per share this year. The long-term outlook doesn't look bright either, as Intel's compound annual earnings growth rate is expected to be just 3% over the next five years.
All of this means that Intel stock may continue to lag in growth. That's why investors may find it reasonable to put their money into other fast-growing stocks that can provide more growth.
There are three reasons why Intel stock is worth buying, notwithstanding the discouraging forecasts of analysts.
First, the company pays a good dividend. Intel's dividend is 2.8 percent and its payout ratio is less than 27 percent. In the third quarter, Intel paid $1.4 billion in dividends, easily covered by $9.9 billion in operating cash flow. For the first nine months of 2021, the company paid $4.2 billion in dividends, compared with $12.6 billion in free cash flow for the same period. Since Intel's dividend seems safe, the company could prove to be a good retirement asset.
The second judgment to buy Intel is its cheap valuation. The price-to-earnings ratio is only 9.5 and the price-to-earnings ratio is 13.5. The low multiples are not surprising, as the prospects for the chip giant's top and bottom lines appear weak over the next year or so. Nevertheless, cheap multiples may attract investors willing to buy a potential turnaround candidate, particularly since Intel will reward patient investors with good dividends.
This brings us to the third reason investors might consider betting on Intel stock right now -- the possibility of a return. Intel has determined to increase its capital spending in the coming years to become more competitive. The company projects capital spending of $25 billion to $28 billion in 2022, which defines the weaker performance in 2022. The planned spending would be a huge jump from this year's spending of $18 billion to $19 billion.
It's also worth noting that Intel's latest Alder Lake processors are inferior to AMD's processors in performance, according to third-party tests. The Alder Lake chips are manufactured using Intel's 10-nanometer process, which matches AMD's 7-nm manufacturing node - which explains why Intel was able to set an aggressive price for its latest processors and offer impressive performance.
Given that Intel has laid out an intensive product development plan for the next couple of years, it won't be unexpected to see the company regain its competitive edge. Thus, Intel's potential turnaround, cheap valuation, and good dividend could attract investors, as the company could turn into a growth company if only its product development steps pay off and it regains its spirit.
