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IWM trade ideas

The Ghost of 1986-1987 Stock Market Overlay onto $IWMThe 1986-1987 stock market advance was 48% as measured by the S&P500 Index SP:SPX from the low in late 1986 which peaked in August 1987 and crashed into October 19th's spectacular 20% decline in one day. The advance in the Russell 2000 Index from the low in 2023 to the high in 2024 was 51%, topping the 48% gain in the SP:SPX and the meltdown wasn't as spectacular, but it was similar. There were similar patterns in fears of trade wars, US dollar declines, new tax laws going into effect back then and tax laws sunsetting this time. Those you can go into by reviewing my other charts I have published over the years here. I stretched the 1987 pattern to fit the low to the high, so it isn't "exactly" the same time day-to-day for this pattern. I found it interesting because the chart of AMEX:IWM all by itself had the same "look" to me as the 1987 bull market and crash so I decided to put it together for you all here to see. I would expect a choppy market from here on as people adjust to the new uncertainties. Sellers of this decline will be shy to reinvest anytime soon and buyers are likely afraid to step up and get aggressive with so much uncertainty. Sentiment as measured by AAII shows an extremely fearful and reluctant investor class, which is typical to see at major market bottoms. Wishing everyone peace and prosperity! Tim West 11:17AM EST April 24, 2025
AMEX:IWMLong
by timwest
3
Preponderance of (or Preposterous?) Evidence I was just proposing yesterday staying neutral in SPY (the S&P 500 ETF). The FOMC meeting today (Jun 18th) was a big-nothing burger (so far), which supports my (non)position, but we'll see. I will update that post when the time is right (ATH, 200dma, or bust). Today, though, the IWM (the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ETF) and, surprisingly, a potential short position. First, the IWM (see below) is overbought on a weekly chart, with the Stochastics being above 80 (more on Stochastics and weekly charts at a later date). For now, let's go with IWM being a little overbought, in the longer-term view. Now, let's switch to the big daily chart at the top and look at the evidence for going short; - IWM never really got above it's 200-day moving average (purple line), - That same level was consistent with a lot of resistance ~213 (yellow circles), - IWM has trailed this whole rally. - It has broken and somewhat retested a trendline (light blue) from this most recent rally, - It bounced off it's 61.8% Fibonacci level (orange line, not my favorite indicator for ETFs, but I often sneak a peek), - It's at its previous resistance high around 209 (blue circles). On the not-bearish side; - The daily chart is less overbought (this has to happen on weakness, though), - There's (a little) support at 199 but not really again until 172, - I still feel like the All-Time-High (ATH) is a magnet for the S&P (but IWM has trailed). That's (a lot) more (and better) points for being bearish. I'll go short (via a ~90 day ITM put position*) if IWM breaks below 207.50, between that and 202. If it opens lower than 202, I'll wait for a pull-up. The stop will be a close above the 200 day. The target is 172 (the previous tariff low), but I will lighten/tighten up (by selling OTM puts* and/or moving stop down) as IWM drops (if it drops). It may seem a bit duplicitous to be neutral on SPY while being bearish on IWM. But sometimes you have to go with the Preponderance of Evidence (or will it prove Preposterous Evidence?) An update will be coming. *Sorry for bringing up options. One can just go short IWM. I will explain my option choice one day. My ideas here on TradingView are for educational purposes only. It is NOT trading advice. I often lose money and you would be a fool to follow me blindly.
AMEX:IWMShort
by TheUncertainTrader
Small Caps about to get SlammedThe IWM has been trading inside this upward sloping wedge/bear flag for a few months. It just broke the bear flag this week and then tested the underside of it as resistance before getting rejected. This area also happens to be a golden pocket retracement zone from a Fibonacci I have drawn from the all-time highs made in November of last year to the lows made 2 months ago in April. The next probable move is back down to target 1 at the bottom of the Fibonacci retracement at $171. These golden pocket retracements have a very high probability of moving back down to the bottom of the retracement, sometimes breaking lower. This area at $171 has a lot of support but if it breaks, I expect it to come down to the orange line which is an upward sloping paralell channel that the IWM has been trading in since the financial crisis of 2008. The bottom of said channel connects the 2009 lows through the covid lows of 2020. This area also happens to be the -0.618 Fibonacci retracement area, it would be the 3rd hit of the bottom this major weekly channel and would very likely contain the lows for the current bear market.
AMEX:IWMShort
by bradc1984
2
IWM: The Rotation Rocket? Waiting at the ShoulderIWM: The Rotation Rocket? Waiting at the Shoulder The market is flirting with new highs—and you know how this game goes. If the S&P breaks out clean, expect the "rotation to small caps" narrative to come flying in right on cue. Rinse and repeat. We've seen this before. 📈 Chartwise, IWM is either: Breaking out from a complex inverse head and shoulders, or... We’re seeing the formation of a final right shoulder just above $198–$200. That red zone is key. A retest of the shoulder trendline near $200 could offer a sweet spot for re-entry. My Position: Started with 10 June 30 $220 calls back in the April flush Sold 8 contracts to lock in profit and now holding 2 runners free and clear Watching price action near the neckline/shoulder zone—may reload if we dip with volume drying up. Macro Context: The tape has been dull. VIX is dropping. Summer float season is coming. The Fed and Wall Street crew might just levitate this market while the banksters summer in Europe on their yachts. Trade Setup Logic: Breakout = rocket fuel. IWM has lagged hard—it may finally play catch-up. Pullback to $200 = re-entry zone. Over $220 = squeeze territory. Targeting a move to $233 (top of the range from late 2023).
AMEX:IWM
by TheAccidentalRetiree
IWM Technical Outlook: Small Caps Poised for Ascent?📅 1D Chart | SMC | BOS/CHoCH | FVG Zones | ORB (0930–0945) Price: $213.50 | Volume: 20.64M The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is pushing into the equilibrium zone after a clean Break of Structure (BOS) from the mid-May lows. This rally signals regained bullish intent, but macro and liquidity overhead remain the key challenges. 🔍 Technical Breakdown: 🟩 Current Zone: Sitting at $213.50 near equilibrium 🟨 First Supply Zone (Reaction Expected): ~$227.98–$230 🟥 Strong High/Final Target Zone: $243–$250 (Premium) Key Confluence: CHoCH into BOS confirms structure shift Volume decreasing slightly—awaiting re-accumulation before next leg 🧠 Probabilistic Positioning: 📈 Bullish Continuation (65%): Pullback toward $210–213 zone (equilibrium) before reclaiming higher resistance. Strong move likely if macro sentiment aligns (Fed pause, rate-cut optimism). 📉 Bearish Rejection (35%): Failure to hold $210 leads to re-tests of: $200 zone (OB/FVG) Extended: $186–$175 🌐 Macro Context: Small-caps are interest rate-sensitive. With markets pricing fewer hikes and potential cuts into late 2025, capital rotation into risk assets may continue. GDP revision and ISM Services softness support risk-on flows. However, real yields remain sticky, capping aggressive upside. 🎯 Trade Setup: Entry Zone: $210–213.50 Target 1: $227.98 Target 2: $243+ Invalidation: Close below $210 (re-enter lower OBs) 🔒 Risk-to-Reward: ~1:3 on breakout retest scenario 📌 Conclusion: IWM is climbing the risk ladder with structure and volume backing it. Watch for reaction at the mid-supply zone ($228–230). A clean break above could validate a move toward the premium zone. #IWM #Russell2000 #SmartMoneyConcepts #TechnicalAnalysis #VolumeProfile #FVG #MarketStructure #TradingView #MacroOutlook #BOS #SMC #Equilibrium #RiskReward
AMEX:IWMLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
IWM - 3 months HEAD & SHOULDERS══════════════════════════════ Since 2014, my markets approach is to spot trading opportunities based solely on the development of CLASSICAL CHART PATTERNS 🤝Let’s learn and grow together 🤝 ══════════════════════════════ Hello Traders ✌ After a careful consideration I came to the conclusion that: - it is crucial to be quick in alerting you with all the opportunities I spot and often I don't post a good pattern because I don't have the opportunity to write down a proper didactical comment; - since my parameters to identify a Classical Pattern and its scenario are very well defined, many of my comments were and would be redundant; - the information that I think is important is very simple and can easily be understood just by looking at charts; For these reasons and hoping to give you a better help, I decided to write comments only when something very specific or interesting shows up, otherwise all the information is shown on the chart. Thank you all for your support 🔎🔎🔎 ALWAYS REMEMBER "A pattern IS NOT a Pattern until the breakout is completed. Before that moment it is just a bunch of colorful candlesticks on a chart of your watchlist" ═════════════════════════════ ⚠ DISCLAIMER ⚠ Breakout Area, Target, Levels, each line drawn on this chart and any other content represent just The Art Of Charting’s personal opinion and it is posted purely for educational purposes. Therefore it must not be taken as a direct or indirect investing recommendations or advices. Entry Point, Initial Stop Loss and Targets depend on your personal and unique Trading Plan Tactics and Money Management rules, Any action taken upon these information is at your own risk. ═════════════════════════════
AMEX:IWMLong
by TheArtOfCharting
$IWM Major bottormAs you can see the market has been slowing plattoing at this area, while AMEX:IWM has been underperforming AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ , there are 2 different scenarios that can play out. 1. Either this will break the major lower grey trendline and look like HSI:HSI , which means that the whole US market will enter a massive long term recession. 2. Or market reneters an new era of this 3-4 year bull market where the AMEX:IWM severly outperfoms the MEGA 7. Now why is 2. the most probable. Because of basic EW pattern , trendline major support , volume building and that all major index funds are in the process of breaking out. Now the big question is whether this is the best price you will get , or more techincally, whether we are going to get another touch on the lower major support trendline before starting the new 5 wave pattern. As you can see from the white paint on my chart(yes i am a painter), we can see that supports on that line only come on the major EW pattern, therefore the next lower high will not be on the lower trendline, but just one above as shown at the foreshadowing EW i have on the graph. thanks for reading
AMEX:IWMLong
by erotokritosrotsas
Market Update - 5/25/2025• Clear leading sectors are batteries, nuclear and alternative energy, material and metal names especially gold • Breadth is declining, XLU, XLP outperforming, stocks lower, IWM rejected from the 100dma. • These are all clear signals to me that we are in a bad environment. Last week I was 109% invested, but now down to only 10%, and only risking 0.3% on my trades. I'm fully in defensive mode. I'm only focusing on the best of the best setups in the above mentioned leading industries. I'm expecting weakness ahead
AMEX:IWM
by BenedekBokor
Russel 2000 Weekly PotentailVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all. This week with AMEX:IWM you can see that last week trending bi-weekly markets were more volatile than our monthly trending values. This could indicate regression to quarterly means, but for now shows a 15.02% premium advantage over current IV per move. Bi-weekly, is as of now, only 10.81% off it's quarterly trend. However, it's important to observe that volatility can still consolidate under monthly in a poetic dance to coil up the monthly more on it's path in regression. This is why in my charts you will notice a 'coiling' value under both HV10 and HV21 values. BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't forget to circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
AMEX:IWM
by splitmyIVandmelt
IWM: Could Be a Gap Fill Day Today🔍 Posted by WaverVanir International LLC Looking at IWM on the 15-minute chart, price action remains ambiguous — we’re caught in a range where traditional technical indicators are providing limited directional clarity. However, our proprietary Decision Support System (DSS) is signaling a potential move based on LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) model outputs. While human sentiment and chart structure may hesitate, machine learning is beginning to lean bullish. 🔹 Key Notes: No clear breakout yet from this consolidation zone. Volume remains subdued, signaling indecision. LSTM forecasting engine from our DSS suite is tilting slightly bullish over the next 1–2 hours. Awaiting confirmation from VWAP and liquidity sweeps before a higher conviction entry. ⚠️ Short-term traders: stay nimble. Machine guidance suggests preparing for a breakout, but price confirmation is critical. 🧠 “When human emotion falters, data continues.” — WaverVanir DSS
AMEX:IWMLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC