$IWM - Looking good so farAMEX:IWM could be heading to the upper trendline of the triangle. If Friday PCE comes in light we could see small caps rally. 👀
IWM trade ideas
How I improved my Situational Awareness - Market Update 6/23/202This weekend I pulled up the sleeves and did a lot of post-trade analysis to realize what my biggest weakness was in trading: situational awareness. I developed a market timing model, backtested it on my own trades and on the market and the results were shocking to me. If I had only been trading in good periods, I would have already been profitable. This is despite the fact that I still make a TON of mistakes in execution and risk management. After all the saying is true - anyone can make money in a good market. Now that I know how to identify a good market for my strategy, I developed rules around it in terms of risk management. This will not only help me to reach profitability, but probably also have more peace of mind as I won't be swimming against the currents.
Markets are still not the best for longer term swing trading, so I will focus on shorter trends and potentially risk reversal trades, of which my strategy is still to be developed.
IWM Q2 2024IWM ETF Q2 2024 view with RSI and 200, 100, 50, 20 VWMA indicators.
IWM
SMCI
MSTR
FIX
CVNA
ANF
ELF
CHRD
Small Caps won't turn around until Gold doesGold and small caps are correlated at .5 - gold double topped and is going lower, I anticipate this will hit the red, jog a little, and if the FED doesn't cut rates, we will go down a run every FOMC meeting until the FED cuts rates or they go down because BOJ is selling our treasuries to shore up their currency that's always competing with China's Yuan (whose trying to shore up their real estate bubble popping which is the largest asset in the world).
Small Caps Looking IllVery disappointing to see small caps give up all their gains from the CPI report on July 12. I also don't think the damage is over and we'll quickly see capitulation down to the lower trend line. Possible bounce from there depending on how the capitulation takes shape.
Russel 2000 IWM is about to tank. Followed by NVDALooks like IWM about to go off a cliff. The shorting has begun. AMEX:SPY will be last; specifically NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:SMCI and all that Ai trash that isn't earning any real money. They will be last; but when they go it'll take everything else down another 50%. And they'll finish down 95%
Chart shows monthly slow-stochastic about to lose embedded. Volume is in the toilet and declining since LAST YEAR. Just like NVDA that garbage bag is rallying to new highs on 1/3rd average volume. I've never seen such drunken stupidity. Maybe the only thing Ai is being used in is buying stocks because apparently it only learned how to hit the buy button.
Incoming disaster soon. IWM about to go off cliff.
Calls RussellLooks like a bullish flag, just bought some calls as shown. I'm expecting a breakout of the 210 resistance.
IWM watchwith the announcement of rate cuts .25 bps in 24, it's a good time to start watching price action of Rusell to start a position. still ping pong action in this megaphone pattern. the common misconception is that rate cuts are good for equities, when i believe it is not. thesis is that when stock market starts to cool off and hit major supports. up to interpreting price action each day/week to know what will happen after. assess strength of each support through volume.
we either breakout this megaphone and go on a run, or we keep ping-ponging, so i feel no rush entering a position at the moment.
Market Update 6/9/2024Usual stuff, watch my videos at 1.5x speed
NASDAQ:INOD
NASDAQ:NVAX
NYSE:TDW
NYSE:OSCR
NYSE:RDW
AMEX:COHN
NYSE:MEC
NASDAQ:SEZL
NASDAQ:MGNI
Next Week's IWM, 21 Day Pivot Standard Deviation RangeLooks like the medium term bias is to the downside for small caps, as we see the weekly pivot (red solid line) fall below the monthly pivot (dark solid line) with AMEX:IWM closing below both.
Both deviation boxes represent two standard deviations above and below the a moving monthly pivot. We may see demand in the lower deviation range if we fall to start off the week.
A rally to start of the week will likely be met with resistance from our pivot points and a fresh downward move from the 21 day moving average.
Investors that want to take advantage of this medium term bias could short volatility in the short term (June/July) for IWM using AMEX:TZA but bet bigger on long volatility in the longer term (September/January2025).
Take any short term gains to the upside and hold onto your short thesis heading into the second half of the year, into 2025.
My idea on where we are going --> Higher!Big picture you see an inverted H&S, then zoom in on the right shoulder you can see a smaller inverted H&S forming. If we get a cooling in the labor market and lower inflation readouts then I expect small caps to explode to the upside.
IWM about to freakin dieThese two patterns look very similar to me. I think IWM is about to take an absolute giga dump in the bed like Depp's ex wife. watch out.
Russel 2000 ETF (IWM): cup-with-handle formingDAILY Russel 2000 ETF (IWM) cup-with-handle pattern
A break above 210.60 in June will send it flying to 232 by August 2024.
Weekly:
Weekly stage three Ichimoku crown pattern
Daily:
cup-with-handle pattern
first pb of new trend
5emas-macd pb
Ichimoku stage 3 with "FLY" bounce off cloud pattern
Small CapsA lot of speculation regarding small caps being a 'catchup trade'.
Perhaps it will play out that way.
Perhaps it wont.
A few observations:
Weekly chart has held long term trend, well, over the past 20 years.
Small caps are sensitive to Fed Funds Rates.
The circumstances of the rate change is important.
My expectation:
Small caps upward move will precede the FFR cut.
Small Caps should fade from long term trend, given 'higher for longer'.
Stock pickers would be better suited to hand select small caps with strong balance sheets, as opposed to a shelf item small cap ETF.
US Small Caps ContinuationSurprised to see IWM fairly restrained in this upward trend as long term interest rates dropped significantly on todays CPI report. Really expect to see a quick catchup over the next few days as SPY and QQQ make new highs.
IWM Bearish at the end of a double bottom
Short target here is 200 gap close..
Has a final gap at 206.30 to close so thats where i will enter..
Stop loss 207.50
Target 200
Resistance And RSI This picture indicates that if the candlestick can stand on support level 1 at the price of 205.05, it can generate profits in the upward direction, and it can take profits at resistance level 2 at the price of 211.03. Additionally, you can check the RSI indicator to confirm the trend further; if the RSI stands above the 70 line, it indicates a bullish trend.
Opening (IRA): IWM July 19th 190 Short Put... for a 2.33 credit.
Comments: Targeting the shortest duration <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. (This is actually at the 18 delta, but it was either the 190 or the 185 where I wanted to pitch my tent from a delta standpoint).
Starting to slowly deploy third quarter rungs here in broad market (IWM, QQQ, SPY) while I piddle around with shorter duration higher IV sector ETF stuff.
BEAR FLAG FORMATION FOR SMALL CAPS 🐻🚩 PRICE TARGETS SETThere is bear flag formation for small caps 🐻🚩 AMEX:IWM
We have pointed FIB price targets for both the upside and downside.
We expect the retracement to go as between the range as low as $169 to $176
Will you be shorting?👀
IWMShowing good signs of strength at yearly pivot earlier this year. And then a recent bounce at the 200EMA. Not convinced this down leg is finished, therefore what we see here may be a bull trap.
Opening (IRA): IWM Sept/Oct 160/150 Short PutsComments: Going ahead and rounding out Q3 rungs here with IVR at 82.7.
September 20th 160: filled for a 1.99 credit
October 18th 150: filled for a 1.61 credit
Will look to manage shorter duration rungs as I come to them ... .
IWM target 181 ?????We now have the right shoulder of a large head n shoulder top in IWM we could now see the next move under 191 best of trades WAVETIMER stagflation anyone !!!!
