I am short IWM small @ 219.15Look daily rolling over and we have lower highs
Look vol more red the green
Look weekly wants roll over and has lower highs
IWM trade ideas
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for 10.17.24
IWM has been on fire lately.
Today, the 35EMA crossed into the green side of the trading range. That doesn’t happen to often. If you watched the video you know what I’m talking about. So lets see it that is a signal for a pull back from here.
The implied move for tomorrow is between 224 & 229, and 223 to 230 on Fridays contract…
The previous resistance at 225, we gapped over it today, and if we drop that could be a support now and the 35EMA is just underneath as well. The gap at the bottom of the trading range tomorrow could be a buy the dip zone on the day.
GL tomorrow, y’all
$IWM What is happening in IWM?The recent rally in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), which tracks the performance of small-cap stocks, can be attributed to several factors based on the latest insights from market sentiment, technical analysis, and broader economic indicators:
1. Breakout Above Resistance: IWM experienced a significant breakout above multi-year resistance levels , which often signals a shift in market sentiment towards more optimism for small-cap stocks . This breakout was partly fueled by favorable economic data, like lower-than-expected inflation reports, suggesting that the Federal Reserve might not need to raise rates as aggressively, thereby reducing borrowing costs for small businesses and potentially boosting their growth prospects.
2. Economic Sentiment and Policy: Lower inflation rates tend to soften expectations for rate hikes, which is generally positive for equities, especially small caps that might be more sensitive to interest rate changes due to their higher cost of capital . The market's anticipation of a more dovish monetary policy can lead to a shift towards riskier assets, including small-cap stocks.
3. Market Rotation and Sector Performance: There's a sentiment that the market might be broadening, moving from large-cap tech stocks towards other sectors, including small caps. This rotation could be driven by several reasons, including a search for value, diversification, or anticipation of different sectors leading the market as economic conditions evolve .
4. Technical Indicators: Technical analysts have noted that IWM's price action, including forming specific candle patterns and breaking above moving averages, indicates a bullish continuation. The mention of IWM approaching or surpassing key resistance levels, like those around $224, suggests that once these levels are decisively broken, further upward movement might be expected due to technical buying.
5. Fundamental Shifts: There's a growing narrative around small caps being due for a catch-up phase, especially if the economic environment supports a recovery or growth in sectors where small caps are prominent. Lower valuations compared to large caps, combined with potential policy changes like tax cuts or stimulus, could favor smaller companies.
6. Market Psychology and Momentum: The mention of a "risk-on" bid across various assets like Bitcoin and small caps suggests a broader market psychology shift towards risk-taking. This environment can propel small-cap stocks as investors chase performance, expecting further gains on the momentum.
7. Individual Stock Performances: Specific companies within the IWM index, like those in emerging tech sectors or benefiting from new policy changes (e.g., Medicare reimbursement rates), have shown significant gains, contributing to the overall ETF's performance.
The rally in IWM, therefore, reflects a combination of favorable economic data, shifts in investor sentiment, technical breakouts, and a potential rotation within the equity markets towards undervalued or previously underperforming sectors like small caps. This movement could be part of a broader trend where investors seek higher returns in a landscape where traditional growth stocks might be overvalued or facing headwinds from policy changes or economic cycles. However, market sentiment can be fickle, and while these factors support the current rally, the sustainability of this upward trend depends on ongoing economic developments, policy decisions, and whether small caps can indeed deliver on the growth anticipated by investors.
IWM likely to break resistance and continue upwardIWM is likely to break through key resistance around 220, continuing its upward momentum toward 300 and 330. The stock seems to have formed a local bottom near 215, and as long as this level holds, the long-term upward trend is expected to persist.
IwmNovember is coming!
Small caps usually outperforms every other index during that time
So here's what I see
Channel perspective
Has been bumping it's head against this trendline
With the exception of one fake out , this trendline has held
Fibonacci level
225 is the place to beat..
I think price could be forming an ascending triangle for a big push after elections but price may breakout before November
Just go back and look at Iwm performance during November.. I'm only wrong if we hard close back below 218
A classic Bullish FlagFlag patterns have five main characteristics:
The preceding trend
The consolidation channel
The volume pattern
A breakout
A confirmation where the price moves in the same direction as the breakout.
While the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones closed at the highest levels, small caps must move at least 5% to make a new all-time high since 2021..!
IWM at Crossroads: Russell 2000 ETF Challenges Key Resistance
1. Overall Trend: The chart shows a generally sideways to slightly bullish movement over the past several months.
2. Resistance Level: The dashed yellow line at approximately $224.75 represents a significant resistance level. The price has tested this level multiple times since July without breaking through convincingly.
3. Linear Regression Channel: The colored area (blue) represents a linear regression channel. This suggests:
- The overall trend is slightly upward
- Price is currently near the upper boundary of the channel, indicating potential overbought conditions
4. Recent Price Action:
- The price has been consolidating in a tighter range near the resistance level over the past few weeks
- The most recent candles show bullish momentum, with the price closing near the highs
5. Potential Breakout: The price is currently challenging the resistance level again. A decisive break above $224.75 could signal a bullish breakout and potential for further upside.
6. Support Levels: The bottom of the regression channel provides dynamic support, currently around $217-$218.
7. Seasonal Considerations: October-December is often a strong period for small caps, which could support a bullish case.
Insight:
- The repeated tests of resistance without significant selloffs suggest underlying strength
- The tightening consolidation near resistance often precedes a significant move
- Traders might consider bullish positions on a confirmed breakout above $224.75, with stops below the channel support
- Alternatively, a failure to break resistance could lead to a move back toward the channel's lower boundary
IWM BREAKOUTIWM heading to $224, basically a certainty. aiming for options exp around nov 4 monday open, will sell majority there and rise the rest as a bonus. NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE.
Market Update - 10/13/2024With Friday's close the situation looks quite positive. Especially the breakout on $MDY. Some solid setups, still mainly on healthcare stocks. Follow throughs have not been the strongest in the last few weeks so I haven't made any progress in terms of gains. Would be nice to finally catch a nice big winner. Only 13% invested but looking to scale up in the coming weeks if we see breakouts with follow through.
Opening (IRA): IWM October 18th 199 Monied Covered Call... for a 196.80 debit.
Comments: Re-upping with a monied covered call in the October 18th cycle. I left some money on the table by taking profit early. However, I don't want to be as aggressive as I usually am from a delta standpoint, since I already made money in the cycle, albeit after somewhat of a rollercoaster July/August.
Instead of selling the -75 delta call against as I usually do, I'm selling the -84 against, resulting in a net delta metric of around 16. The 16 delta strike is associated with 2 x the expected move, which is why I'm choosing that short call strike ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 196.80
Max Profit: 2.20
ROC at Max: 1.12%
50% Max: 1.10
ROC at 50% Max: .56%
I'll generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll in-profit short call out if and when the setup converges on +30 delta.
75% gains BUY/HOLD IWM/RUS2K C*H trade setup🔸Hello traders, today let's review 2daily chart for IWM . Entering re-accumulation stage now, expecting range bound trading during next fer months. We've hit heavy overhead resistace / limited upside currently.
🔸The speculative chart pattern is bullish C*H in progress, expect more range locked price action for a few months as we re-accumulate and get ready to clear the ATH. Measured move price projectiong for the C*H structure is 350 USD, 75% upside from the recommended BUY ZONE.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: wait for IWM to re-accumulate in the sliding
bull flag formation and get ready to BUY/HOLD low near 200 USD, target
based on measured move projection is 350 USD. good luck traders!
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Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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$IWM Tomorrow’s Implied Move for PPIAMEX:IWM Tomorrow’s Implied Move for PPI
Alright, IWM. We had the bearish cross down in the first week of Oct and since then we’ve seen the 30min 200MA as resistance as we make our way back to the 50DMA.
Implied move for tomorrow is 214 - 219, 35EMA is above us and so is the 1hr 200MA and they both acted as resistance today. If we get above that duo then the next target is the 30min 200MA which has been a clear resistance since we crossed down. If we do get to that level I would be looking at 220/221 or 221/222.
And then if it holds as resistance then look to the 50Day Moving average. The momentum there is pulling us down. 214 is sitting right on the 200DMA and if we get down there I would be looking to sell 213/212 bull put spreads since the DMA acted as support today for a technical bounce.
— Storm update: I’m so good, but I don’t have power so I can’t make videos until that’s fixed. Until then I’ll be posting charts here when I can. 🙌🏼
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels and Targets Review of Oct 9thLook at this beautiful chart. Have you seen anything more technically perfect than this. I discussed so much of this price action in the videos lately, definitely on the weekend video, namely that once the 30min 35EMA crosses underneath the 30min 200MA that it should act as resistance and look at that… that’s exactly what it did.
We popped up, filled that down gap from Monday, tapped the 30min 200MA and got rejected there. The 35EMA just didn’t support moving above that level today. We also saw the 1hr 200MA as a support. Know where your levels are.
Im in the middle of Hurricane Milton in Sarasota right now so I hopefully will have power enough to get tomorrow’s range out for CPI but if not then you know why… LOL… Don’t worry y’all I’m in a very safe place. So even if I lose power I’m still safe.
$IWM Weekly Chart Looks BullishAMEX:IWM small caps have been volatile for quite a while now. I expect that volatility will continue until after the election. When looking at a daily chart it is hard to see any kind of pattern but zooming out to a weekly timeframe it looks to me that it has established a solid uptrend. I will be looking for an opportunity to get long for a move back to the upper trendline. But as you can see on the chart it has ventured outside the trendline but seldom closes above or below.
The distance between the lower trendline and the upper trendline measures just over 11% as measured in a straight line. I am looking to squeeze out 8% to 10% as a swing trade.
I have an alert just over yesterday’s high at $218.67. Should that trigger, I will put my stop just below last week’s low of 215.08. That looks like a good risk reward for me. All TBD.
Opening (IRA): IWM Oct 25th 185/207.5/207.5/230 Iron Fly... for a 12.32 credit.
Comments: More small stuff while I thumb twiddle, waiting for longer-dated setups to play out.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 10.18
Max Profit: 12.32
25% Max: 3.08
ROC at 25% Max: 25.00%
Break Evens: 195.18/219.82
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Payroll
Today’s Trading Range, y’all. Looking like that 30min 200MA could be a great short right at open. Let’s go…
💃🏻
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets - Recap of Oct. 3rdAMEX:IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets
Ok. This was the setup from Last night’s video and the outcome.
We gapped down, dropped to the 50DMA and then we traded between the 1hr 200MA and the 50DMA (2hr 200MA)
I will do a more detailed review over the weekend on the video but I didn’t get to it tonight.
So Monday we gapped down, Tuesday we got the bearish cross in the MA’s, and then gap down Thursday.
We did stay within the implied move for the day.
Wow, what a beautiful chart though. I have so much I would say right now if I was recording a video rn.
OK… tomorrow’s trading range will be out in just a bit.
💃🏻
$IWM Might Run up RSI here before next… AMEX:IWM Might Run up RSI here before next…
Keep an eye on RSI here. Right now it’s in a bullish divergence both on the 1hr and the 30min time frame. So in the near term we might see a pop, and even more likely, some consolidation here.
The 2hr timeframe is still pointing us lower but we have room for a little pop here or some sideways action.
💃🏻
DOWn jgonesDo you seewhat I see? #mmiq short for upnotctober while Lebanon has a ground invasion by Israel and dollars pumping too,the markets gonna crash pretty simplestructure too
$IWM Tomorrow’s Trading range Oct 1st 2024AMEX:IWM Tomorrow’s Trading range Oct 1st 2024
Alright, y’all… support is at 218 and resistance is at 223, the 35EMA is underneath us and we have an implied move of 1.19%
Awwww yeah… Gl y’all
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day TradersNo video again tonight but here is the trading range.
IWM had a big drop yesterday, outside of the implied move, so watch out for volatility, and it filled both FOMC gaps, the one before FOMC and the one after.
Looks like this moving averages are on deck. Look to the 35EMA as a possible resistance even though we are still above the 30min 200MA which actually makes us neutral.
GL, y’all… I’ll keep you up to date on the wifi situation and hopefully videos will resume soon.
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders for Sept 25
Ok, so I can’t make a video tonight :( My Wifi is down in my neighborhood because they are putting new lines in, and to make matters worse there’s a hurricane coming this way so it won’t likely be fixed until it passes so I can only do as much work as my hotspot will allow
The implied move for tomorrow is between 218 and 224. The 30day average volatility is 217-226 and the implied move on Thursdays contract is between 218 and 225.
We are right at the 30min 35EMA, it is literally right in the middle of out trading range, so keep an eye on that for direction. IWM is the only one trading underneath it’s 35EMA. Below that support is at 219 which is the gap bottom from FOMC.
Lot’s of moving average support underneath the trading range (1hr 200, 30min 200 and the 50DMA)
GL, y’all… I’ll keep you up to date on the wifi situation
The Global Liquidity Index is looking very interesting here.The GLI is looking very interesting at these levels. It's currently bouncing around within the Fibonacci retracement levels shown. Stocks and crypto usually perform better during times of increased liquidity for obvious reasons. Now that we are heading into a period where central banks around the world are propping up markets with freshly printed cash, we may see this index set a new high, which will be good for asset prices overall.
Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
