Russel distributing (correlates with Bitcoin)Russel is distributing. Looking back, it correlates with BTC since the covid crash. Will BTC break out of it's trading range to the downside?
IWM trade ideas
IWM 195/190 Put Credit SpreadSimple trade idea here. 1 month out, >10% RoM (Return on Margin) This one was filled at 0.55 credit, allowing for commissions on the way out to be covered and keep the 10% return.
I did not love that this was moving downwards still, but we are near the bottom of the range and this trade gives us 8% or so of room. Management rules will still apply. close at 50% profit, or -200% of credit received.
$IWM, trading it 1/24over 203 205-206.5 possible
under 196 192.5-194 possible
#intradayoptionstrading #stockmarket
NO bias, read red or green day. chop/ranging = hand sitting
scalpers paradise (IWM)this is purely educational, and not investment advice. get professional advice before investing.
there is nothing more predictable than reversals of the broad trend. take iwm for example. small caps are extremely sensitive to large volume market moves. small caps obey a general ruleset that ties their values and fundamentals to that of larger names and other indices as well as the dollar index.
this doesnt mean small stocks move with the large names that are a much safer passive buy. the david and goliath relationship between businesses of varying internal and market values is nuanced, and unique in the world. the different ways companies keep cash on hand and their comparative debt ratios are like a slip fault. tremors begin in a given epicenter, usually a specific sector or subset of an index or sector, and they radiate out through closely to more distantly related groupings while the broader equities market as well as other asset classes absorb the impact.
depending on how the smaller names are related to those prices, whether its a commodity or corporate bond, currency pair, what have you, the impact can be more or less volatile. impact, be it positive, negative or having a calming/sideways movement, can determine direction and magnitude of a trend (sometimes directly or inversely proportional to the affected grouping) in confirmational bias to the existing trend, or indicate reversal.
it is these reversals that make a scalpers job so easy. avoiding the large part of a move, and only funding a trade during periods of reversal seems like giving up the fort. in reality, this castle keep so to speak adds a consistency and implied judgement to the soundness of a prospect. speculation is essentially eliminated, as the stock is so overextended in its involvement with whatever makes the move as to be an impossibility for the trend to continue.
paying close to the direction of each arrow during a reversal in small caps, youll notice that nothing is pointing down. this is not because you shouldnt short IWM. this is just indicating how your stop loss always trends up, as profit can only realistically be kept in one direction. as the trend changes, and candles either begin to break lows or highs, the pattern of a higher low or lower low every candle on the next timeframe up will begin to break. one can make only long or short trades in either bull or bear case this way and still profit reliably. every small arrow can be a short or long, and this means the movement is far easier to forecast.
entry and exit is determined purely by strict adherence to determined directionality and support or resistance levels. use a computer aided tool for this. dont rely on your own judgements or calculations. stay rigidly latched to your levels so as to trade like a robot would. you can add some padding to precise levels, but it shouldnt exceed a proportional amount to the movement that is changing. always trade on closure below or above certain reversal levels on a larger timeframe indicating a break in the trend and quickly average in as each new candle on a smaller timeframe confirms the break of trend. both directions are valid, so keep tight stop losses to lock in profit. this will mean orders need to happen rapidly. take your time, and pay close attention to things like bid/ask and levels in the order book, but rapidly return to being able to make your next move as opposed to something distracting like news or another chart. order most cost basis at the beginning and average smaller amounts as trends reverse. the fastest part of the trade in oversold bounces/overbought retracements is also the point where the most profit can be lost, so you dont want to take a bigger bite as velocity increases. dont follow the trend after it changes. the point of scalping is that moves are more predictable in smaller sizes. you are capitalizing on the volatility of an asset, not the trend of the movement itself. you will need to use much of your available cash to do this; upwards of 78%. the next move after a reversal can always be a fakeout to second reversal. i have pointed out some fakeouts with larger arrows.
as your junior most assets reach a value that of your sr most assets cost basis, exit the trade. wait patiently for another trend reversal, and take smaller general direction trades in between with a looser stop loss that you can be more relaxed with.
rsi is going to be in the low 20s monday. where do you think this could go?
IWMDaily Chart Report
IWM is in a free fall. When a stock breaks through two support level in one go, you know how bearish the chart is. The first stop is at 190 support level and then head to 168 major support level. I want to note that there is a possibility that IWM might have a small bounce in the coming week to retest the breakout before it heads lower. The bounce will be a dead cat bounce possibly to the 204 level. It is short for the next few months. I will be fading the rips.
IWM a hit to the gut, on the DailyIWM hitting low after its highs and consolidating, now with the entire market going down, IWM is just doesn't have enough steam behind it with so much shorts and so much uncertainty.
Where's that impulse, Scottie?Visual analysis strongly suggests the Russell's rise from covid crash is a three wave fake MMT induced wave. If that's the case, what might come next? This is just a wild guess. Could be completely off my rockers.
IWM [Russel 2000] Inverse Head & Shoulders & BreakoutThe IWM as seen from the chart has been forming a solid and strong Inverse Head & Shoulders.
An Inverse Head & Shoulders is a strong Bullish Chart Technicals Pattern, that can be seen here. 2 Shoulders, and 1 head in the middle, making the low.
I am sharing this idea, as it is a pattern which has been printed on the Russel-2000 this past week, and can't go unnoticed!
The Russel-2000 Index has also been in a YEAR-long consolidation, and is ready to make a move one way or another.
On the weekly time frame of the Russel, the TTM_SQUEEZE Indicator a momentum indicator that can also predict big moves has been flashing red (signaling squeeze) and that a big move is coming one way or another.
AFTER This recent breakout attempt in November from IWM, and a retest of the bottom consolidation levels, the russel seems ready to bounce up with this inverse head and shoulders, or make a break down.
I think this is something to definitely keep on your radar folks!
Good Luck Trading!
I am personally looking at playing this with either :
IWM febuary monthlys OR $URTY a 3x leveraged russel ETF
IWMWas waiting all morning for this gap (pink line) to fill. Of course as soon as I get distracted with something, it fills and pulls away. Oh well. Probably bounces up to around $209 if I had to guess.
IWM trade update, and more swing putsIn my previous chart (linked) I gave notice of IWM breaking down from its range. The upper gray line marks the lowest close of the sideways range, and the lower line marks the dip last January. There is a lot of air underneath.
I took profits on the dip to 205 yesterday. Today I bought 18Feb puts again at the 208-209 resistance. Now looking at 198 break, then 193, 185.
fyi - My option swing trades usually last 1 day to 2 weeks. I only use long calls or puts, single leg.
Breaking DownWe broke down from a year long Darvas box.
We broke up last year then failed. That was the biggest signal last year that something is wrong.
2022 will be a long year if you are not prepared for it.
IWM set to take a leg down. IWM (russell 2k ETF) has been stuck in a ranging rectangle consolidation pattern for like a year. Everyone can see it, it's definitely no secret. This is why I think the last bull spike above resistance failed and was sold off; it trapped a lot of people who assumed it was an upward breakout.
Anyhow, this simple mockup just adds more bad juju, as you can see it's formed a descending triangle pattern in addition to the 200SMA now being resistance. Both of these are very bearish. I am shorting IWM simply too many factors against it....with these two just dumping fuel onto the fire. We might see a bounce at support, yes, but with each bounce lately has came less and less volume. Im interpreting this as the bulls losing confidence, while at the same time the declining trend line that makes the "descending" part of the triangle clearly shows the bears are jumping in earlier and earlier. I think it's just a matter of time now before we formally break the support of the bottom of not only the triangle, but the rectangle bottom support line just below it.
It was a good ride!
$spy $iwm Finally brokeThere is an airpocket and lack of support till it reaches 197 and fills that big gap.
𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗹𝗹-𝗰𝗮𝗽 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $IWM Daily. WARNINGConcerning chart. Looks like a backtest today ... as long as below 209 there's substantial risk to the downside
$RTY_F $AMC $CROX $SPY $ES_F $QQQ $NQ_F $VIX $TLT $TNX $DXY #Stocks #Trading 📉
Russel Wyckoff distribution phase DIWM looks like it is about spend the next week or so completing Phase D of Wyckoff distribution, a test of the resistance overhead seems likely followed by a subsequent fall off into Phase E downtrend, the gap down to 163 seems like a likely PT by all metrics, including Fib .786 retrace between what I would consider the last 2 major pivots.
Opened (IRA): IWM March 4th 185 Short Put... for a 2.50 credit.
Comments: Sold premium right at the close in the expiry nearest 45 days to emulate dollar cost averaging into small caps.
Holistically, I've been using IWM for shorter duration trades (~45 days until expiry) and SPY for longer duration ones (since it doesn't pay as well as a function of buying power effect), and then coupling that with a longer-dated short delta hedge or hedges. (See, e.g., Post Below). I'm still net delta long, just not as long as I would be were I to be all short put without some kind of short delta aspect.
iwm short there is so much you can do when monitoring shares. i missed the trendline break. iwm closed and broke support . would look only for short
Time to short the Russell 2000 ETF IWM, and here's why.Here is a chart of the entire IWM ranging behavior over the past like 9-10 months. You can clearly see the resistance and support lines. The top resistance line also coincides with the R1 monthly pivot resistance line.
Below is the OBV with the same ranging behavior over the same time span. Obviously, volume should confirm price.....and up until recently it more or less has, also ranging up and down between the support and resistance lines drawn on the OBV indicator itself.
My point is...... look at the far right, where the purple rectangle boxes are. See the problem? OBV has already plowed downward well out of the rectangle and below the support line. Notice how it also never confirmed the prior IWM break out of the range. It was a leading indicator there that the break out would fail.....and it did.
Now it's clearly indicating that IWM is going to blow right through that rigid support line it's bounced off of many times before. My money is betting on that it's right.
$IWM Key Levels & Analysis & Targets $IWM Key Levels & Analysis & Targets
Well, here comes that 201
Death cross on the daily
Lot’s of resistance to the up side
GL, y’all…
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I usually trade both ways, but lately I’ve been focusing more to the downside because of how high the market is. It makes more sense to sell puts right now, and I’m usually at Target 2 or 3.
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I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence.
I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I just see what I see in the charts and I don’t pay too much attention to the noise in the news.
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can. (If I have time)
Have fun, y’all!!
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$IWMBox is breaking out on top.
But stochastic false bar is still on top.
I will wait for a bar to come below stochastic which will confirm stage 4 decline . Target 160-170 levels
IWMDaily Chart Report
IWM finally breaking to the downside. The first price target is at 198 support level. It think it could move even lower. According to the TA a full measured move to the downside is at 168 support level.
IWM to 205 then 169If IWM fails to hold 205 then we are going to see a quick downside move to 169. There doesn't appear to be many buyers or sellers between the two VPVR valleys (on the right).
Will rising rates cause this range to finally break down ?!This is an update to my previous chart, linked here.
