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IWM trade ideas

IWM Testing Descending Channel IWM is testing a descending channel. The flattening/pancaking of heikin ashi signals an aggressive impending move (up or down, who knows really). Odds are actually in favour of a move up, tbh. Probability of low less than or equal to 200 is 14% (Based on past 2 months of performance data). Probability of a high greater than or equal to 200 is 97% (Based on past 2 months performance of data). My recommendation, if you want the odds in your favour: If you wanna go long: Aim to go long below 200 (if we test below again), odds will be in your favour for a move to the upside in the coming 1 to 2 weeks. If you wanna go short: Aim to go short above 202/203 (if we test that high) but be careful because if we break that descending channel, we may see an aggressive pop. The lines in green are realistic price targets for a short position. However, I have already closed out my short position at 199 this morning. I am leaning towards a potential long entry personally, but waiting to see if we get an EOD sell off and aiming long below 200 if we can see that. My focus is actually on XOM right now, but hoping to add an IWM position by EOD if market permits :). Best of luck! DISCLAIMER: Not financial advice. Not a financial advisor. Just an ex-epidemiologist who enjoys mathematical modeling. At the end of the day, I trade price action. I use regression analysis to plan my entries and exits and chart support and resistance levels (I find it more accurate than looking at the chart). However, its not always correct and I am sometimes wrong. Manage your risk! Its okay to be wrong, and you will be wrong, just manage your risk and you will live to see another day. Its not the end of the world :). My linear regression models are done in SPSS. I can't share pictures, but am happy to answer your questions.
AMEX:IWM
by Steversteves
Russell 2K (IWM) showing Wyckoff Distribution?Richard Wyckoff theorized that one could understand the market and its movement through analysis of supply and demand, which can be ascertained from studying price action, volume, and time. According to Wyckoff, the market moves in cycles. First, there is a period of accumulation followed by a mark up period. Then there is a period of distribution followed by a mark down period. The cycle then repeats itself. Seeking to improve efficiency when trading, Wyckoff created the Wyckoff schematics which depict trading ranges of accumulation and distribution by smart money. In 2020, we saw a major market crash as COVID caused the world to shut down. Once the F.U.D. diminished, the Wyckoff accumulation cycle began and the Russell was quickly marked up in a matter of months. In 2021, the Russell has traded mostly sideways. Following Wyckoff's cycle, one could presume that this is the Wyckoff distribution pattern which can take up to a year to fulfill. The Wyckoff Distribution Pattern is split into phases. I have outlined each phase on the chart to provide clarity. The distribution is broken down as such: Phase A: The Preliminary Supply (PSY) is established. This is where big money begins to offload some of their accumulated position. It is bought up by retail traders and sent to new highs. Big money then offloads a larger portion of their position at the Buying Climax (BC). This causes a massive wave of selling as supply significantly outweighs demand. Panic selling ensues and stop losses are triggered. An Automatic Reaction (AR) occurs as the supply and demand balance out. The low of the AR and high of the BC establish a trading range for the rest of the distribution. Phase B: This phase consists of supply and demand testing. Buyers will attempt to reclaim the trend through upthrusts (UT) but big money meets this demand with more supply and sends shares back into the trading range. Big money will then perform secondary tests (ST) and look for signs of weakness (SOW) to assess the remaining supply and demand imbalances. This results in a long period of consolidation. Not that we should see low volume in the middle of the range and volume spikes toward the boundaries. Phase C (Optional): This phase is characterized as a false breakout. It is used to trick traders out of their positions so big money can offload more supply, sending shares lower in one final push. Upthrust after Distribution (UTAD) Phase D: This phase will often illustrate a clear imbalance between supply and demand. Price will show large volume and price declines toward the lower boundary of the trading range. At this point, big money has little to no long position left and has likely initiated a short position. The market will begin to make a down-trending structure of lower highs and lower lows. I believe we are currently at this phase of the cycle. Phase E: The mark down period begins. There are several possible catalysts to trigger phase E. The most obvious is the anticipation of rate hikes from the Fed. From here, we will begin to look for the start of the next accumulation period. **It is important to note that the Wyckoff Distribution Pattern is only a model and that the chart wont match it perfectly. As long as the fundamental concepts of the model hold true, the pattern should work. I will be looking for short signals and confirmations via market structure and volume. Let me know your thoughts on this unusually long explanation. Happy trading!
AMEX:IWMShort
by Decam9
3
Time to Long IWM? Is it time to long IWM after today's bul run? To get to the point, IMO, No. Here is my analysis and plan with IWM: Fundamentally: Some of the biggest stocks with the most growth of 2021 were small cap stocks, which IWM tracks. These are the stocks that are being hit the hardest with this market correction. *cough* AMC *cough*. Historically: IWM has surpassed SPY and DIA in correction/sell off during rough market times. It has lost between 64% on the high end and 24% on the low end in these market down turns (looking at data from 2008, 2018, COVID). From its ATH high in November, we are currently at around 22% (rounded up). There is a possible 2% to 44% left of correction. Chart Trend: Obviously, we are in a down trend. (No! Really?! ;) ) SPY and DIA are appearing in a flattened, pancake pattern (usually indicating an impending aggressive move coming). However, ARKK and IWM have re-established the bearish flat top indicating a strong down-trend, even after today's EOD bull-run. Mathematical Modeling: IWM has been on-point in regression analysis these past 2 weeks. Today, regression models I have made of IWM predicted a possible low of 189.06 (with SD=9). We made a low of 188.09, a 0.97 point difference and well within the SD variance. I had predicted a possible high of 193.58 (SD=9), with an actual high of 195.31, a 1.73 point difference and well within the SD variance. Even after adjusting the model with today's variables, the model still predicts a continuation of lower highs and lower lows in the coming week. Furthermore, there has been no invalidation of the regression model, even with the bull run at EOD. The stock still performed within accepted limits of the regression model. For an invalidation to have occurred, the stock would have to have at least tested 201.58 on the high end or 180.06 on the low end. This would indicate a change in sentiment and a call to re-look at the stock's behaviour. This was not the case today. Probability: I don't like communicating probability to other people, I simply use this as my own gauge to set realistic price targets. But I will share my thoughts, The probability favours a move to the upside here. However, keep in mind that probability in trading is highly biased. Its biased because it does not take into account time (so there is generally a favourable probability to the upside vs the downside, but no indication of when that is and this is true for truly any stock, stocks in general are long biased). The other bias is that this data is based only on January data and probability favors where most values fall. In this case, most values fall above 200 points for January and thus, as far as probability is concerned, there is more likely a chance of reaching a value in the 200s because that is where most values fall. Yet still, probability is a powerful tool (IMO) to use and its worth mentioning. The probability that we reach a value between 196 and 200 is roughly 5%. However, the probability we have a low of less that 200 points is actually fairly high by trading standards, its 27.45%. Not bad! Possible outcome next week: The market wants to make a big move. I mean, those of you who actively trade in the market every day can see it. With these huge bull runs followed by huge bear runs, this bouncing everywhere, the market is itching to make a huge move in some direction. Heikin Ashi on DIA and Spy are pancaking indicating a build up and desire to break out in some direction. LR Forecasting for Monday are positive, with slightly higher highs than today. However, this is followed by a decline in highs and lows with a move to the downside. In the past, during sustained selling off, IWM likes to do bounces on the way down that stretch about 8% on average. So it may not be unreasonable to observe a bounce in the market tomorrow. This would put IWM at a price of around $204. From there, it is possible we go lower. Much lower. Forecasting shows lows could be as low at 175 next week (however, I never trust data more than 1 or 2 days out, without correcting with previous day data, so I would wait for Monday data before doing anything with this information). My Outlook: I tend to be short biased. I am going to be looking for a break of 196.07 with good volume and bullsih appearance on hekin ashi to POSSIBLY go long up to around 200. I will be looking at around 200-204 (if we do that high) to short, provided I see this in the price action. I think we need a bit of a bounce to stabilize the market. The RSI on IWM is stabilizing out from being oversold to being in an area where it could make a bit of a move lower. To be honest, I have no idea where we are heading. I tend to think we are heading to the short side. If I have to put money on it, I would bet the short side. However, I am not swinging any position period in this current market. My trades are intraday and that's it (aside from a short position I currently hold with BA). Today I played IWM on both the short and the long side. And plan for that to be the case next week as well. DISCLAIMER: Not financial advice. Not a financial advisor. Just an ex-epidemiologist who enjoys mathematical modeling. At the end of the day, I trade price action. I use regression analysis to plan my entries and exits and chart support and resistance levels (I find it more accurate than looking at the chart). However, its not always correct and I am sometimes wrong. Manage your risk! Its okay to be wrong, and you will be wrong, just manage your risk and you will live to see another day. Its not the end of the world :). My linear regression models are done in SPSS. I can't share pictures, but am happy to answer your questions. Have a great weekend!
AMEX:IWM
by Steversteves
2
Buying IWM calls for swing tradeI am using 30 and 5 min charts for my trade entry, but here is my context for the trade: Daily chart: > stochastic shows 3 %K dips below 20, and usually the third one happens as %D starts turning up. Rarely are there more than 3 dips, and you can see the same in Nov-Dec (rectangle). Think of it as a 5-wave move (3 dips, 2 rises) that then > will have to wait for close to see if RSI makes a bullish divergence between today and 21 Jan. Weekly chart: > Though used less often, the 100ma (yellow) provides support for a bounce > Price can move up to 198, and maybe the resistance at 208-210, which matches the daily 20ma
AMEX:IWMLong
by OptionsRising
IWM 31.01.2022 LongAsset and Time frame -IWM Daily Entry Price -195.50 Exit(Stop Loss) 190.14 Exit(Take Profit) -210.22 Technical Analysis Price has reached the -61.8 Fibonacci level and made a small hammer pattern + a small divergence on the daily and a clearer one the 4H chart, also, the price is reacting to the down-trending bottom of the channel, usually, i'll wait for a confirmation candle after the hammer-like pattern, but since we're in a bearish market -there isn't much room to go up and so the trade has to initiated earlier for a closer TP, Good Luck
AMEX:IWMLong
by Avirany
1
Opening (Margin): IWM February 18th 198/233 Short Strangle... for a 3.57 credit. Comments: I'm pretty much in everything at the top of the exchange-traded fund board and wanted to deploy a little more buying power before the February monthly shortens too much in duration, so selling premium in the broad market exchange-traded fund with the highest background implied. 3.57 on buying power effect of 28.05 (on margin); 12.7% ROC at max; 6.4% at 50% max. Will look to take profit at 50% max; manage sides on approaching worthless/side test.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
4
Small-Caps Lose During Periods of Rate HikesThe Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), comprised of the 2000 smallest companies in the greater Russell 3000, is a proxy for small-cap public companies. Small-caps tend to experience amplified interest expense burden as federal policy rates are lifted (as they are expected to be lifted a whole 100bps through 2022). This is because small-caps have a third of their debt in variable interest rates—meaning as rates rise, the interest expense they pay on debt increases (Source: Bloomberg (below)). The IWM currently sits at a price level of interest to traders around 12/2020 and 1/2021—buyers and sellers fought to push prices beyond ~$192. During this visit to the price level of interest, the Federal Reserve statements of higher future interest rates may act as a catalyst, playing in favor of sellers. Further, as investors' money flies from unprofitable growth companies to stable, profitable growth companies, IWM faces pressure. 31% of the companies making up IWM are unprofitable, compared to only 5.7% of the Russell 1000 (largest 1000 companies). This pair of catalysts may be the breaking point of $192. However, from a historical perspective, it seems that small-caps tend to recover their losses during rising interest rate environments approximately a year after the first hike. Meaning a revisit of the ~$169 price level could be an interesting buying opportunity for long-term traders. More research is needed surrounding the recovery of small caps amid increasing rates. Any ideas or supporting research are welcomed. Thanks. Sources: Bloomberg, WSJ (Unfortunately cannot post links to these articles as a basic member; please message me for the sources).
AMEX:IWM
by acappy99
Swing puts again for IWMI am buying 18Feb puts with IWM over 202. Most volume is at 188 and 195 strikes. I will exit if price gets over 203.50 204.50, 205. Then I will wait and see if IWM moves up to 208-210, or all the way back to daily 20sma, and start a new swing trade. 30m chart shows consolidation wedge, which I am watching for break downwards. Arrows show indicators will move lower again. In strong downtrends, RSI (30m) usually reverses near 60, or in a strong bounce rally it could push up to 65.
AMEX:IWMShort
by OptionsRising
3
Day Trade MechanicsRarely do I post short dated trades, but wanted to provide people some insight into market mechanics. Within a panic selloff with the full support of the fed, (as it stands today) as rule thumb remember efficient market pricing and use it too your benefit. Count on simple indicators and pragmatic decision making while trading small lots in options or tight stops if long outright. Most importantly, stick to your trading system to profit in every market environment. Will update by end of Day. PSA => Fed meeting tomorrow Personal Trading Tip: Don't fight the Fed Long IWM 200 Call 01/28 @ 2.50 Long IWM 200/203 Debit Spread 01/26 @ .99 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE Best of Luck Traders!
AMEX:IWMLong
by kingmidasLXIX
3