KRE long target 110$Fundamentals for the banking system are very strong right now, and it is possible to reach this target with the interest hikings
KRE trade ideas
KRE weekly bullish breakout with volume ahead of bank earnings. KRE Weekly chart showing bullish break out to ATH with increasing volume.
Technical point to a more bullish move for up coming weeks ahead of bank earnings.
CCI & RSI trending higher and moving up to bullish signal.
Cross on weekly Stochastics RSI is showing a bullish cross.
KRE 3h Wolfe Wave 11/9A Wolfe Wave is a chart pattern composed of five wave patterns in price that imply an underlying equilibrium price. Investors who use this system time their trades based upon the resistance and support lines indicated by the pattern.
$KRE Weekly Box BreakoutAs mentioned in XLF idea, Financial charts looking bullish with a nice weekly box breakout. KRE regional banking etf :
- Look for retest of box or possible sellers to step in for a push down to 8EMA green line
- My bias and bull case - continuation , especially with the MACD bullish cross confluence.
I'm long Dec 72c but can also form a spread with the Dec 69p (.28 delta)
regionals risebanks rip more from here on a hawkish Jackson Hole fed meeting. rolled into some OTM calls today. RSI not in an ideal spot, altho the tighter charts show a different supportive picture atm
KRE Short SetupRegional Banks look terrible here and have shown relative weakness recently as the indices have been making new highs. If the market decides to correct, I expect KRE to see some more downside.
$spy $kre The line in the sand for Regional BanksI'm gonna state it like this in my Mr. T voice. announcer: What do you predict if kre drops below the blue support line? Mr. T.: Pain
KRE - Long on positive market conditions, risk 5%Financial sector looks pretty good, showing relative strength, despite choppy market. Nice wedge breakout on heavy volume, with excellent mirror support level retest. We are looking for 71.30 level breakout. SL 67.80
KRE call credit spread Apr 16 expiryKRE call credit spread - back logging entry, not at expiry yet
At likely channel high resistance
Driving in hard rally
The center line is well respected
Likely a -2 to +2 sigma move and then roll over
Danger is rally expansion after a consolidation so need short strike to be as high as possible
Aggressive sellers above in DBD supply zone
Short strike at 70 is at the distal edge of supply with a liquidity search rally spike just below it
Opened as 4 DTE, 19% ROI
Got the decline this morning and trade looks good for Fri expiration Apr 16
The Stars Align | Long Financials1. Steepening Yield Curve
2. High GDP Growth, which will boost loan growth
3. Lower credit losses supported by fiscal stimulus
4. Accelerating job growth, which should drive up consumer spending, improve credit outlooks further & enable accelerated reserve releases
5. Accelerating buy backs
*Fed to end its temporary restrictions on most banks paying dividends and buying back shares after June 30
Found support at the 50day (orange)
Stoch RSI, Buy signal
OPENING (IRA): KRE MARCH 19TH 42 SHORT PUT... for a 1.08/contract credit.
Notes: I already have some January on, and there is no February currently, so going out to March with 30-day still >35% at 36.5% and expiry specific at 38.4%. As with my other IRA short put trades, I'm fine with getting assigned, selling call against, particularly since it has a small dividend to pay you while you wait to exit any covered call profitably. ROC: 2.64% at max as a function of notional risk; 9.6% annualized at max.
OPENING (IRA): KRE JANUARY 15TH 40 SHORT PUT... for an .81/contract credit.
Notes: With 30-day at 57.4% and expiry-specific at 42.3%, selling premium in one of the underlyings on my IRA shopping list. (Current yield 3.02%). I would ordinarily just ladder out, but this isn't exactly weak relative to where it's been, so want to keep powder dry for it in the event it weakens further. 2.07% ROC at max as a functional of notional risk; 11.6% annualized.
Banks, Airlines & Cruises strong this morning.Just reposting a chart I sent out last week. All the names are up pre-market and threatening to breakout
from a decent base. Pretty much tells you the theme for today after the MRNA news.
KRE Threatening to breakout of 5 month range.Not sure why banks are moving here as yields are not popping but they look strong.
KRE vs TLTAre bond about to tank? KRE is threatening a range breakout just as bond pull into key support.
Could reverser quickly of course but something to watch.. Its been interesting to see bonds sell off as
the market sells off.
KRe/XLREQuite the move in the KRE/XLRE today....I plotted 10Y yield against it....Good proxy for interest rates (i.e. indicating headed higher).
Regional Banks On the Move!Regional banks have been an absolute dog as of late. They lag almost everything, other than energy. This sector has shown some strength since the “Tech Wreck”. So why do we focus on this group? Well it is part of a larger story…. interest rates. Let’s hop on the chart.
So here we have the charts of KRE. We have seen a downward sloping trendline that was intact for months break. Now we are going to test an area of overhead supply. If we break through at that area, that is bullish for stocks. If we break down at that level, we would be looking for a higher low to confirm the trend reversal. We are also seeing the RSI break through some overhead resistance which is bullish. We want to see participation from financials, even the small ones! Now this is also part of a larger story of interest rates. If KRE is rising, we can assume rates will rise as well. At least in the short term during reversals, these two trend together. We are seeing utilities break out too, which is another leading indicator of rates increasing.
Happy Trading!
OPENING (IRA): KRE NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 31/30 SHORT PUT LADDER ... for a 1.49 credit.
Notes: With its current yield of 3.66%, looking to pick up some shares lower or just keep the premium. Background implied at 44.9% with an ROC of 2.50% at max as a function of notional risk, 9.71% annualized.
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, XOP, KRE, EWZ, QQQEARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS:
Currently, no options highly liquid underlyings announcing earnings next week with high rank/implied.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR 30-DAY IMPLIED > 35%:
GDXJ (16/54/12.0%)*
XOP (16/51/12.1%)
SLV (34/47/10.7%)
EWZ (17/45/10.7%)
GDX (18/43/10.2%)
BROAD MARKET:
QQQ (32/35/8.2%)
IWM (27/32/7.3%)
SPY (22/26/5.6%)
EFA (16/21/4.6%)
DIVIDEND-GENERATING EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS:
EWZ (17/45/10.7%)
SLV (34/47/10.7%)**
KRE (24/45/10.4%)
XLE (23/41/9.3%)
EWA (26/27/6.7%)
SPY (22/26/5.8%)
IYR (19/26/5.6%)
XLU (17/23/5.2%)
EFA (16/21/4.6%)
GLD (24/20/4.4%)
TLT (9/16/3.5%)
HYG (15/14/2.6%)
EMB (14/22/2.5%)
Pictured here is a two-rung short put ladder in KRE (Current Yield 3.70%) intended for a retirement account environment. It was paying 1.83 at the mid as of the Friday close, but it's bid 1.43/ask 2.18 in the off hours, so will have to price that out during the New York session. I've already got some EWZ on (See Post, below), but may consider adding some SLV for precious metal exposure in addition to my GLD due to its higher volatility and scalability (which I probably should have thought about before throwing a three lot GLD ladder out there) (See, GLD Post, below).
I've also added XLE to the list due to its current yield of 6.81%.
GENERAL THOUGHTS:
With the U.S. general elections occurring on Tuesday, November 3rd, I'll be looking to lighten up margin account positions running into the October monthly expiry (now 33 days 'til expiry). I will consider just flattening out completely, and then reestablishing positions thereafter. If you recall the last general election in 2016, it was limit down in /ES during the Asian session, all of which evaporated by New York open, leaving minimal volatility to take advantage of in its wake. I could see playing /ES in the overnight to capitalize on a potential volatility contraction that may occur in /ES from the overnight to the New York session, but it will depend to a certain extent on how much volatility expands running into the election.
I'll try to post a potential trade set-up, but I can say it's likely to take one of two forms: (a) an at-the-money long call vertical to take advantage of skew and with risk one to make one metrics; or (b) an out-of-the-money short put vertical -- both defined risk. I lean toward the credit side (short put vertical) due to having more room to be wrong, but will have to price things out in the moment to compare and contrast the two setups for buying power effect, profit potential, and probability of profit.
In the IRA, I'm going to keep on grinding on things as long as I can find decent premium to sell without going totally crazy; I want to keep a decent amount of buying power free in the event that we do get a big volatility event that shouldn't be passed up.
* -- The first number is the implied volatility rank (where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, the 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage of stock price the at-the-money short straddle is paying in the October monthly.
** -- Neither GLD nor SLV pay a dividend, but I have a GLD position on to give me some exposure to precious metals.
KRE in a tight narrow wedge - Must come downIt is stuck between 2 trend lines and there is no room to go. It has hit the top of the channel with lower volume. Time is ticking and i think we must go down.
KRE - Ran into Huge ResistanceRan into Huge resistance on the purple line. It happened in the past and it happened again today 8/12. I think it goes down $38 before we see what happens next.
