MSTR trade ideas
I longed MicroStrategy with a Small Position TodayI must say I adore Chief Executive Officer Michael Saylor and think he is brilliant and a wonderful communicator.
We all know the drill- they have taken out a $650m & a $950m loan at rates under .01% and have been buying bitcoin since sub $12k and then using the capital to pump it up. Which in turn continues to pump-up their own underlying assets which are bitcoins that were acquired at various levels from $10k on up.
They then use the new equity from all the underlying being pumped up and then take out more loans and do it over and over. Rinse repeat. This in essence lets them have a position essentially short the dollar and long bitcoin. Whats funny is people act like this is risky, yet if you think of how much traders are paying using margin (I do not recommend using margin in this manner if you want leverage run option spreads) traders are paying far more in margin interest then 1%.
"MicroStrategy Inc. boosted its convertible debt sale to buy Bitcoin by nearly half and cut the coupon to 0%, making it virtually a straight bet on the price of world’s largest cryptocurrency.
The software maker priced $900 million of senior convertible notes, up from the $600 million announced Tuesday, and gave an option for $150 million more within 13 days. The debt will pay no interest and the company estimates total proceeds of about $1 billion -- enough to buy about 20,000 Bitcoin at current levels."
Source: www.bloomberg.com
Fundamental Figures:
Market Cap 8.5B
Sales $480M
P/FCF 241 (Very high!)
EPS this Y +95.7%
Gross Margin 81%
Net Margin 5.4%
Interesting company, with Institutions owning now 86% of it, and I have read they include the following:
BlackRock Funds 14% 1,060,491 shares
Morgan Stanley Investments 10% 792,627 shares
Vanguard Group 10% 753,268 shares
First Trust Advisors 4.9% 355,600 shares
Mutual Funds also have decent exposure:
iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF 6.5% 475,526 Shares
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF 4.38% 317,358 Shares
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index 2.78% 201,852 Shares
Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund 2.37% 172,112 Shares
iShares Russell 2000 ETF 2.3% 169,504 Shares
Government Pension Fund 2.14% 155,057 Shares
I longed today at $914, however I will only add to the position at $800 which we can see here is S2 on the pivots:
$800 as well will be where the 20d moving average will be, which is my favorite moving average to long off of after it confirms support. (Red Line)
And finally this is where we will meet the EMA Ribbon.
With the nice runup in Bitcoin today though I did open a small position at this high level. - At least there will be no FOMO feelings.
Good luck trading friends and do your due diligence.
Additional Citation: www.bloomberg.com
MSTR - EW analysis - Up trend MSTR - It is in super uptrend and expecting small move up as 5th subwave of 3rd of 3rd wave up as shown like in chart. Buy it in each three wave sideways correction and profit booking is always a new high level.
Give thumbs up if you really like the trade idea/analysis.
MSTR - February 7, 2021Back on our watchlist is MicroStrategy Incorporated, a company that provides business intelligence (BI), mobile software, and cloud-based services. The company is most known for holding BTC on their balance sheet and advocating for cryptocurrencies' corporate use cases. In the fallout of the GME and WallStBets situation, there is overwhelming anti-institutional and anti-traditional market sentiment growing among retail traders. This, coupled with the increasing popularity of cryptocurrency in the mainstream, could cause BTC to soar in the short run. MSTR allows traders to have indirect exposure to BTC without the complication of holding crypto directly. With the potential for new ATH's this week in BTC, look for MSTR to soar if a breakout begins.
Microstrategy to have a short-lived fall in the near termMicrostrategy to fall to the light blue line. If the crypto selloff continues and bitcoin reaches targets from $24,000 - $27,000, we may see Microstrategy touch the red line before any upside movement. Once the upside movement begins, the rally will be fun to watch - HH
Microstragey - It is safe to say Michael Saylor has been public face for Bitcoin bulls recently, which has helped push Micro Strategy stock through the roof.
The above weekly chart has just flashed a warning. A warning that price action is considerably overbought. The overbought condition (green column) has illuminated together with a break of Money Flow Index (MFI) support (bottom oscillator). We can also see sell pressure has increased significantly.
Risk / reward is unacceptable at this moment.
1st target $200
It is possible price action can move higher? Absolutely.
Is it probable? Unlikely.
Channel tradeStock has been hot since Bitcoin broke through 20k. Had a break down this week when bit pulled back over the weekend. It's back in its channel and the volume is half of what it was moving last week (Bad sign). Redlines are targets if its heading back down . I put an upside target incase bitcoin jumps 2k in which this stock would rally on the news
MicroStrategy Call Options: A Leveraged Bitcoin PlayBuying $MSTR call options, given the company's sizable Bitcoin holdings, has been a convenient way to speculate on rising Bitcoin prices with leverage. It's not uncommon for the stock to appreciate +10% on a 5-8% Bitcoin move, and the corresponding calls 500-1000% or more. This trade requires a hefty risk tolerance, as it goes south rather quickly if Bitcoin pulls back; also, the stock does not always trade as you'd expect given Bitcoin's chart for any given day, sometimes there is a delay in how the stock acts to the Bitcoin price. The premiums are also very high as well as the implied volatility; this requires patience and the understanding that you could lose 100% of your investment. If you are a Bitcoin bull, it's best to use a small % of your total portfolio allocation to this trade, keep 99% of your money in Bitcoin itself. When this trade works, however, you can use the proceeds from your +1000% gains on the call options to then buy more Bitcoin. This is not financial advice, good luck.
When Tether gets charged for FraudJanuary 15th lawsuit deadline for Tether/Bitfinex . Don’t get into a position before confirmation. Microstrategy puts.
When Tether fall the whole house will fall. GL
This post is for the poeople who don’t feel like shorting the ponzi throught these foreign scam unregulated crypto-exchange WHEN tether gets halted and found guilty for Fraud.