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NUGT trade ideas

Bullish Leveraged Gold ETFs Get Hammered – A Pullback Warranted?Given the large gains seen over the last two days, there could be support in the cards for leveraged minor ETFs following profit taking. NUGT, Direxion Daily Gold Miners, is the 3x leverage of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Price action is heavily to the downside, reaching support at $9.11 – forming a triple-bottom on the two-hour chart. Price visited this level on December 16 and 24, and NUGT is currently treading water. A short-term pullback is probable given the steep oversold condition, with the RSI at 16. The – DMI has ticked lower, signaling that downside could take a breather. However, the ADX is still sloping upward which is indicative of strong trend continuation. Next, the underlying benchmark GDX is showing the same negative sentiment. The chart, in many ways, is similar to NUGT. If the gold miners ETF can rally to the targeted resistance level of $18.46, this would represent a 9.51 percent increase in NUGT, or a move to $9.98 and just shy of the $10.08 resistance level. If prices can extend to the second resistance target of $18.74, NUGT could potentially extend to $10.33. Conversely, there is the likelihood that the intraday trend could continue lower. In this case, if GDX were to trade lower to the first support level of $17.55 then NUGT could move lower to $8.37 and break the triple-bottom support. A larger move to $17.35 would reflect a 28.5 percent loss in NUGT, causing the bearish ETF to fall to $6.48. As always, intraday charts are vulnerable to significant volatility caused by headline risk and potential outlook is only suitable for the next few trading sessions. See full post here: bullion.directory
AMEX:NUGT
by CommoditiesTrader
NUGT: Trade Idea.I went long NUGT this past Monday, 11-10-2014, because on Friday, November 7th, the CCI rose above -100.Because I consider this to be a high risk trade, I bought only 50 shares. The idea is that if it does work out I will add an additional 50 shares and then let the position ride. I am hoping that this will turn out to be a mid to long term trade lasting from a few weeks to a few months. There are a couple of things that suggest that this trade might work out. First, the RSI's on the weekly charts for $XAU & $HUI all dropped well below 30 three weeks back and each of these indexes have had green weekly candles for the past two weeks. Gold itself has also had green candles for the past two weeks. However, it is quite possible that the recent moves in Gold, $HUI & $XAU are nothing more than dead cat bounces initiated out of extremely oversold environments. Certainly this will become clear by the end of the upcoming week. Some things of note on the daily NUGT chart: This past Friday, NUGT closed above the 9EMA (yellow). While this is a positive, it could just be a one-day event similar to what happened in early October so it's going to be extremely important for NUGT to stay above the 9EMA in the coming week. Next, the CCI dropped to a new low just a few sessions back and then managed to crawl above -100. This is another positive but to prove this is more than just an oversold bounce, then the CCI will have to stay above -100 and maybe follow the trend line higher. Next, the RSI closed at 22 on October 3rd and then, while NUGT made a significant new low on October 31st, the RSI closed at 23, a sign of positive divergence. RSI positive divergence is often one of the best signals out there but to confirm that the move has legs the RSI will need to push above 50 within the next 5-7 trading days. Next, Wilder's ADX is showing that the DI lines are looking at each other and while this is good it doesn't mean a whole lot until these lines cross. As long as NUGT doesn't fall off a cliff in early this coming week, then those DI lines could get a bullish cross by Wednesday or Thursday. Such a cross is necessary to prove that NUGT wants to and can go higher so this the most important thing I'll be watching for in the week ahead. Next, the 20/20 sto has had a bullish cross but the problem is and the reason why this is such a risky trade is that the 20/20 sto has had bullish crosses in the recent past and absolutely nothing has come of them. In the coming days I will be watching for the blue sto line to pull away from the orange signal line and for the signal line to turn up as more evidence that NUGT can and wants to go higher. That's the trade and the reasoning behind it. Because there is a very high probability that this could blow up in my face, I'm starting out small. If NUGT pushes higher, then I will likely add the remainder of my 50 shares when the 9EMA pushes up through the 20MA, which for me would be a legitimate 'buy' signal in the daily time frame. For those of you thinking that maybe I'm on to something just remember that it's always better to be out wishing you were in than to be in and wishing you were out. Be careful and GL in the week ahead.
AMEX:NUGTLong
by CurtisM
2
NUGT trade or how not to destroy your accountThe piercing line candle in the Juniors/Large miners got confirmation and the NUGT trade opened. Needs a lot of work, as PM complex is in a downtrend, but the chart present a possible ABCD, a C&H pattern, a falling bullish wedge that is about to break and everybody I know or I read is bearish or short gold and miner stocks. A lot, and I mean a lot of junior miner stocks presents H&S tops too, but since we are at the or near the bottom, might not be the best pattern to follow as it has poor results. On the other hand, shorts are creating the bottoms in a harry to bye back their positions when such patterns fail. Last COT's looks ok, sentiment data are ok too- not at the pessimistic extremes I would like to - Rydex assets holders have the smallest investment in PM's as usual, GOFO's are still negative, public opinion of Gold is around the middle level (50) and seasonals show late April until mid June is good period. www.signalfinancialgroup.com All these ok, but the R/R is what made me push the button. 1 R loss gives a good sleep. cheers and all the best Panos p.s. I have destroyed a couple of accounts with 3X leveraged products during the early - before R/R and trading journal- years. Take care.
AMEX:NUGTLong
by pantheo
NUGT Daily 03/19/2014Out of NUGT and JNUG for now. Gold has had a nice run and I don't think it's over, but gold has clearly come under pressure the last few days. I will be watching for one or both of two things to happen before I reenter. I want to see the CCI drop below -100. Once that happens I will watch for positive divergence in CCI and/or for CCI to rise back above -100 as a new 'buy' signal. Second, I will be watching the RSI for a drop to or below 30 as a signal that NUGT has become oversold. Should the RSI actually drop below 30, then a new 'buy' signal would come with a rise back above 30. No idea which of the above two signals will trigger first or at all or if NUGT will find support around 47 and then reverse. Regardless, I don't think the run in gold is over. I just think it is pulling back to a price that will attract more buyers where it will build a base and strength in preparation for the next leg up. IMHO and subject to change without notice. GL
AMEX:NUGT
by CurtisM
NUGT Daily 02/24/2014 Consolidation Appears CompleteAfter climbing up near the measured move target price based on the pennant breakout, NUGT went into the expected consolidation, filling the gap in the process. Now that this consolidation appears to be complete, I am looking for NUGT to climb up to the 200MA in the $57/$58 area. Could take a while but getting to that level would indicate that what to some may look like a long overdue bounce is actually the beginning of a longer term bullish move. IMHO, of course. GL
AMEX:NUGT
by CurtisM
4
NUGT Daily with indecision doji 02/15/2014Last week I pointed out that with the break out of the pennant formation, the measured move should take NUGT to the $54 area and NUGT came very close to that on Friday. And while I was looking for $54 to complete the measured move, I didn't mean or expect this to happen in one week. With Friday's gap up and doji, we have all the makings of an island reversal for NUGT, JNUG and perhaps dozens of other gold and silver stocks, ETF's and indexes. However, while it may not be nothin' but blue skies for the next few sessions, according to Bulkowski, the island reversal is not a very reliable pattern and while a lot of people think that all gaps must be filled, the truth is that only about 34% of gaps are actually filled. Of course, we never know in advance which 34% are going to be filled. I think the bottom line comes down to this: A gap up takes and expends a tremendous amount of energy and NUGT, et all, need a few days to build cause for the next move, and, with the completion (or very close to the completion) of the measured move, one has to expect a pull back or sideways consolidation to follow. The RSI at 69 is very close to being overbought and a little sideways action or pull back would allow this indicator to recycle lower and then reset for the next move up. Further, NGUT has been and is likely to remain an extremely volatile ETF. So my plan for now, subject to change at any time without notice, is to hold through what I expect to be a volatile period for the next few days. However, should gold and NUGT fall off a cliff next week, I'm likely to cash out and wait for the next buy signal. GL Edit: Just wanted to add that this doji also has the potential of being an abandoned baby. Either way, island reversal or abandoned baby, both require a gap fill as the confirmation.
AMEX:NUGTLong
by CurtisM
4