Nvidia - Launching The Final Bullrun!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) can still rally another +40%:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After rejecting the channel resistance in June, July and August of 2024 and correcting about -40%, buyers immediately stepped in and pushed Nvidia much higher. There is a quite high chance, that we will see a final blow off rally, squeezing out the last remaining bears.
Levels to watch: $200
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
NVDA trade ideas
Nvidia big Shorthello traders i think of big sohrt on nvidia begin this week and go down for while 155 is our stop loss and failure of this analysis.
Selling Opportunity setup -NVDAIn general me and my brother, we are long on NVDA, but since we noticed multiple red flags, we believe that in the short term there are more odds in favor of a correction than a continuation. We take the upcoming earnings as a trading event and we access the risks versus the potential upside return.
Our trading system gave us a signal for a long entry on the open of 19 November 2024.
We will now show you the red flags:
#1 Pattern similarity
Feels like we traded this pattern before, see the current pattern of Nvidia VERSUS an old pattern of the SPY:
You can clearly see, that there was a correction and a long sideway action, then the price did a NEW HIGH on a small upward channel of higher highs and higher lows.
#2 Not the right volume pattern
You would expect that when the price is rising and makes a new local highs, the volume will increase on the upside, but there is a rise on shrinking volume. Also most of the relative large volume is on the red bars down on the selling side.
Let us do the following thought experiment, if a small edge fund wants to book profit on NVDA which I am sure such an edge fund exists since we are at all new time highs, they would put sell orders so a big edge fund will fill them and they will book a profit. This should be manifested as a large spike in volume, especially when the stock reached a new all-time high twice. But we did not see any spike in volume!
This means as Jesse Livermore liked to put it, the stock is not acting right ! We wanted to see Nvidia making a new high on large volume and push forward to $180 as analysts forecast, but it didn't.
We suspect that the rising in price, is a retail activity being allowed by the puppet master, so the puppet master could sell out Nvidia as high as he can. Hence he is the Master, and the public is the puppet. They are being played to believe that Nvidia will get to $180 right now.
Somehow we feel it's a red flag, that NO VOLUME is entering the market on a rising price. This COULD happen in a case where all the market and public are so bullish on Nvidia that everyone just lifted up all their sell limit orders to $160 plus, so this explains the non existance of volume. However, the odds are not in favour of this behavior since it is not normal human behavior of profit taking.
#3 No shakeout of the public
Previously the market shaked out all the non believers, but now, they just let the stock price chip its way up with higher highs and higher lows to reach $150 but not break it? ... No stop loss hunting to get liquidity from the market? looks suspicious.
#4 Options Chain Large Size on the long side (calls)
At first we wanted to buy options to the long side, but since we saw we were less likely to profit from it since IV (Implied volatility) is 100%+ it made the options prices too expensive, and no room for a reasonable profit. The day after earnings, the IV will drop dramatically and we saw in our indicator that it is a losing bet UNLESS it will actually reach $180 after earnings is released and we are skeptical about it.
See the options volume leaders:
You can clearly see that Nvidia is a leader of sold call options above $150 (open interest).
I don't know if you read the options book, but statistically most options end up worthless...
This is how the market makers make their money...
and it is profitable... to collapse the price of the stock... by selling hardly the stock... so all those options will end up worthless...
Because it is PROFITABLE to make them worthless, we somehow find it hard to believe they will let all those options become at the money by a price jump to $180 right now as analysts say it expects to go. Because this means they will lose lots of money on those sold OUT OF THE MONEY options.
There are substantially more amounts of Calls than Puts. (1.61 ratio).
The volume of options is crazy, this is serious money.
The options in the interesting prices ($150 for example) are 4 times larger calls than puts.
There could be a possibility that if the market sentiment of Nvidia is so bullish that they can't sell the stock down, they will have no choice but to edge themselves, and buy the stock itself which will ultimately drive the price of Nvidia up. We estimate this low in likelihood, given recent other earnings that pushed the stock prices down when the earnings are released after hours.
So what can you expect next?
You can expect this for sure:
If the post-earning movement will be to the upside, your portfolio of other stocks (the market) will not gain the same amount of return.
If the post-earning movement will be to the downside, since all the indexes will get hurt (due to high weight of NVIDIA), the whole market will get HURT, so NVIDIA loss will be reflected also in other stocks in your portfolio.
THE SELLING SETUP is to wait for NVIDIA to crush on earnings so it will crush the market, and then it is the happiest day for DAY TRADING ! to the short side...
Since, the odds for short on the post-earning day, are very high, and it is like a present from the market, since you can prepare yourself to it by waiting for the money to be on the floor, so you just pick it up.
Nvidia (NVDA) Earning Report Trade I only trade long breakouts. Though this trade makes no assumption of the outcome of Nvidia earnings call. It was targeting an upward movement in the stock before and after the earnings call.
As per the oldest trick in the book, the NVDA stock was expected to fall (before rise) on successful earnings results. The fall was specifically targeted to collect additional liquidity from the SL orders below the current market price.
Two bands were drawn on the chart to indicate the upper and lower band of the Volume Profile and the PoC line.
Most SL orders will be placed below the PoC line, near the lower band. In my case, an order to buy was placed near the lower band, at 140$. The ongoing market price when the order was placed was 147$.
The NVDA results were well above the expectations. As expected, the NVDA stock went for a deep dive below and touched the 140 range and filled my order, before rising sharply above 144$ and then stabilizing around the level for some time. I was able to capture a move of around 3%.
WYSWYGThis week, NVDA reports earnings, confirming a couple of things: 1) whether it can sustain its sales, 2) whether it can increase them, and 3) who is distributing its chips( NASDAQ:SMCI , NYSE:DELL ). Similarly, today it signed an agreement with Google to develop quantum computing chips, a revolutionary step in the field of technology.
Technically speaking, we have a large symmetrical triangle(D) that has just invalidated any possibility of a drop. Right now, micro-patterns are forming(B,C), pushing the price up and down within a large descending flag(A). If the flag plays out, we could return to the resistance of the massive symmetrical triangle at $122 USD, which would then act as support. On the other hand, this flag could break, as there are several patterns that could quickly invalidate it. Therefore, I believe we’ll see movement in both directions on Wednesday, but ultimately trending higher and the symmetrical end price is $173
Nvidia Drop Into Discount Prior To Earnings? NASDAQ:NVDA
Chart Image (4h):
Leading up to earnings announcements, Nvidia has historically shown a tendency to pull back into a discount zone before resuming its bullish momentum post-earnings. This pattern aligns with liquidity-seeking behavior, where price often revisits lower levels, potentially reaching fair value gaps (FVGs) or Fibonacci-identified discounts, before significant events like earnings. This pre-earnings drop creates attractive entry points, allowing traders to position themselves ahead of anticipated positive earnings reactions.
The current price action shows a similar setup, with a consolidation range forming around fair value gaps and a discount area, which may signal another pre-earnings dip. This setup could allow institutional traders and market participants to maximize positioning for potential upside, particularly given Nvidia’s promising fundamentals. These include record-breaking demand for the company’s new Blackwell AI architecture and strong growth prospects tied to the expanding AI chip market.
Should Nvidia continue its pattern of dipping before earnings, traders might have a favorable setup, especially as any positive updates regarding production ramp-ups or demand for Blackwell could drive the stock higher after the report. Let me know if you’d like to explore this setup further or discuss additional technical aspects!
NVIDIA's Price Action: The Strat Analysis & Key Levels (4-Hour)Candlestick Patterns:
The chart shows 4-hour candlestick patterns with colors corresponding to price movement:
- green fill and green outline indicates price closed above candle open price
- green fill and red outline indicates price closed below candle open price
- red fill and green outline indicates price went below previous candle low but closed above current candle open
- red fill and red outline indicates price closed below previous candle and current candle low
- yellow is the color for a consolidated candle (aka "1" or inside bar)
- blue is the color for the "3" candle that went above and below previous' candle high and low
The numbers "1," "2," and "3" likely represent The Strat methodology, a popular trading framework:
1 (Inside Bar): Price action is contained within the previous candle's range.
2 (Directional Bar): Price breaks either high or low of the previous candle.
3 (Broadening Formation): Price takes out both the high and low of the previous candle.
Support and Resistance Zones:
Multiple horizontal lines represent key support and resistance levels:
- Yellow lines indicate historical highs/lows or significant levels (e.g., "Previous All-Time High Zone").
- Red and blue lines mark specific levels like the "Open WK" or "ABR1 Upper,"
- Labels such as "High of Day," "Previous Weekly High," and "Previous Daily Low" provide context for recent price action.
Broadening Formations:
- Diagonal white lines identify broadening formations, consistent with "The Strat." These formations reflect expanding ranges, suggesting increased volatility or market indecision.
Key Dates and Events:
- Specific dates and times, such as "4hr Mon, Nov 11 @ 1:30 pm," appear next to significant price levels, helping to pinpoint areas where the stock reacted strongly.
Indicators:
- ATR (Average True Range) and DTR (Daily True Range) values are shown at the bottom right:
- ATR: 4.58 — Indicates the average price movement range over a period.
- DTR: 5.16 — Suggests the range within the day (113% implies higher-than-average volatility).
Directional Signals:
- Green and red arrows identify potential buy and sell signals based on the methodology applied, likely aligned with price action breakouts or reversals.
Analysis:
- Trend: The stock has moved from consolidation (inside bars and 2s) to a broader upward trend with several green directional bars (2-ups). However, recent candles show retracement and potential consolidation.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: $148.68 ("Open WK") and $149.77 ("Previous Weekly High").
- Support: $140.08 and $137.33 ("Low of Day, Tuesday, Nov 5").
- Volatility: Broadening formations and ATR/DTR metrics suggest significant volatility in the price action.
Potential Trading Setups:
- Look for directional moves off major levels (e.g., $148.68 and $140.08).
- Monitor broadening formation boundaries for potential reversals or breakouts.
NVIDIA - Bullish in Short TermNVIDIA showed clear signs of recovery in the last hour of trading on Friday. Ahead of the quarterly figures, it can be assumed that the share will rise moderately (in line with the overall market). As we are unable to assess the market's reaction to the figures, open long positions should be closed before publication.
$NVDA is headed back to $80sIt was a fun run for NVDA but it looks to be coming to an end.
We've reached max stupid in the stock market and the correction is about to be painful. Not sure what's going to cause this type of a move, maybe SMCI news ends up being a bigger deal in earnings than what was initially let on, maybe people finally realize the hype cycle in AI is way ahead of where the tech is, or maybe, people just realize the company is way overvalued.
Whatever happens during earnings, looks like the same outcome. Price is going to trade back in the 80s. This is likely the top.
Hoping we see a move back to $145 on Monday to enter some puts.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming weeks. NASDAQ:MSFT looks horrible too. Will likely do a chart on that next.
Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Drops Following Earnings ReportNvidia (NVDA) Stock Drops Following Earnings Report
On 13 November, we analysed Nvidia’s (NVDA) price chart and noted:
→ The continuation of a long-term upward channel (highlighted in blue).
→ A consolidation below the psychological $150 level, forming a narrowing triangle along the Quater Line, which divides the lower half of the channel.
On 20 November, Nvidia released its Q3 earnings report, which exceeded analysts’ expectations:
→ Earnings per share (EPS): $0.81 (expected: $0.74).
→ Revenue: $35.08 billion (expected: $33.17 billion).
→ Revenue growth: +94% year-on-year, +17% quarter-on-quarter.
Key Insights (via Reuters):
→ Optimism centres on Nvidia’s new Blackwell processors.
→ Concerns arise over a reduced revenue forecast due to supply chain constraints in chip production.
Despite strong results, Nvidia’s stock price dipped slightly following the report. Pre-market data suggests today’s trading could start around $142.50.
What’s Next?
Technical analysis of Nvidia’s chart indicates potential for further downside movement, with resistance levels formed by:
→ The psychological $150 mark.
→ A Resistance line running parallel above the correction channel (July–October) at a height equal to its range.
If bearish sentiment gains momentum in today’s main session, it could:
→ Confirm a bearish breakout from the consolidation triangle.
→ Threaten a breach of the lower boundary of the long-term growth channel.
In a worst-case scenario, NVDA could shift into a bearish trend within a descending channel (marked in red).
Analyst Outlook:
According to TipRanks:
→ 39 of 42 analysts recommend buying NVDA stock.
→ The average 12-month price target is $165.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NVDA long $176.6-$178.0NASDAQ:NVDA finishes it's 3rd wave.
Price target is between $176.6 and $178.0
NVIDIA is Poised to Reach $200NVIDIA is Poised to Reach $200
NVIDIA finally broke through its all-time high, which was reached on June 20, 2024, at $140.50.
For about 110 days, the price has been developing a larger triangle pattern, accumulating bullish momentum.
So far we have a clear bullish breakout and the price seems poised to reach $200.
However, the first reasonable target I am looking at is near to $170.
We should analyze it again later as long as the price is developing.
You may watch the analysis for further details!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
NVDA at these prices!?! Yes, please. LONG at 140.15You can check my previous NVDA idea to see just exactly how smitten I am with it. Quick summary of that: we are in the early stages of an AI revolution, and NVDA has no serious competitors and they can't make their chips fast enough. I rest my case.
Now those who follow me know I HATE trading stocks near earnings. WAY too much volatility. But NVDA is a stock I will happily make an exception for. Could they disappoint? Sure. But I can't say this loudly enough based on the results of my trading system backtest on NVDA:
THERE IS NO BAD TIME TO BUY NVDA
My system is a perfect 717-0 since NVDA stock began trading. If NVDA has a bad earnings report, I'll just buy more. If you want to know why, go back and check the price levels of every previous "miss" and compare them to where the stock is today. As long as the items in the summary thesis I wrote above stay true, I'm in on a long trade.
I'm just mad that I missed out on the last two times it was on sale because my portfolio was already full. Not this time. Long today at 140.15 and I will keep adding as long as my algo screams "OVERSOLD!" I will be using a different exit strategy than usual, though.
Even with NVDA I'd prefer not to be long at earnings, so I'll use my FPC exit strategy and if it's profitable at the close tomorrow, I'll take my money, thank NVDA profusely, and walk away. There will always be other opportunities and I'm not a greedy man. I'll leave sweating out hoped for earnings moonshots for others. There's plenty of other places I can make money in the market.
Short time, target 138Following daily chart.
I am posting a couple of hours before earning.
First, I don't believe the earnings will be good enough to push the price more. Also, I am following 3 different power indicators, which all gave me a short signal.
In this case, I want to use 2 different Fibonacci levels for the target, The first one is a long run from august, the other one is a short run, and both targets are around 137 for me.
TP 138
SL 147 - stop under 147 candle close.
Btw I see the same pattern in Amazon and SPX, so I am short in both 3 of them.
ONCE IN A LIFETIMEONCE IN A LIFETIME:
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Buy NASDAQ:NVDA $145 Calls expiring Jan 15, 2027 - currently at a great price.
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NVDA A Bounce in the Making? Key Levels to Watch for Nov. 19, 24NVDA has been in a short-term downtrend, with declining momentum as it approaches a key support zone. Currently trading near $140, the price action suggests a potential reversal or continuation setup, making it an exciting candidate for both scalping and swing trading strategies.
Price Action Insights:
Trendline Break Alert:
NVDA has respected a descending trendline, but the recent consolidation near $140 hints at a potential breakout. Look for price action around $142-$143 for confirmation of a trend reversal.
Support and Resistance:
Key Support: $137.10 (recent low) — this level must hold to prevent further downside.
Immediate Resistance: $143.30 — a breakout above this level could push the price toward the next supply zone at $149.
Supply and Demand Zones:
Demand Zone: $135-$137 — expect buying pressure in this area if the price revisits.
Supply Zone: $148-$150 — sellers may step in here, making it a logical swing trade target.
Order Block:
The $137-$140 range shows signs of institutional accumulation. Monitor volume and candlestick patterns for further validation.
Indicator Analysis:
EMA Strategy:
9 EMA vs. 21 EMA: The moving averages are flattening, signaling potential consolidation. A bullish crossover will confirm upward momentum.
MACD:
MACD histogram shows reducing bearish momentum. A bullish crossover on the hourly timeframe would strengthen the case for a move higher.
Game Plan for Scalping:
Entry Points:
Go long above $143 on a confirmed breakout with volume.
Short below $137 if the support breaks with momentum.
Exit Points:
Take profits near $145 for long scalps.
Cover shorts near $135.
Game Plan for Swing Trading:
Bullish Scenario:
Entry: Above $143 with strong confirmation.
Target 1: $149; Target 2: $155.
Stop Loss: Below $137 to limit risk.
Bearish Scenario:
Entry: Below $137 on a breakdown.
Target: $132.
Stop Loss: Above $143.
Thoughts and Suggestions: NVIDIA is in a pivotal zone. A break above $143 could signal the start of a reversal, while a failure to hold $137 may lead to further downside. For scalpers, focus on intraday levels and quick profits. Swing traders should wait for confirmation of the breakout or breakdown before entering.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
Nvidia RETRACEMENT Imminent to $105-110 per shareNvidia recently reached an all-time high of $149.76, marking a 50% increase since my analysis on August 2, 2024. With earnings due in three days, I believe the current price already reflects market expectations.
Looking ahead, the upcoming release of Blackwell GPUs, likely in early January, and before the CES tech event (largest international tech event: 7-10 January), sets the stage for a strong 2025. Given the anticipated demand in AI and gaming markets, Nvidia's growth trajectory will likely remains strong.
In the short term, I expect the stock price to retrace to the $105–$110 range. While a correction is not guaranteed, such a pullback would open the door for an excellent buying opportunity and I will be going 'all in', if this occurs.
By the end of 2025, I estimate Nvidia’s stock to reach $200 per share, representing a potential 100% gain from the anticipated dip. This forecast is based on strong fundamentals, and increasing demand of GPUs for large datacentres for AI.
NVDA is the NOK of the 2000 Tech BubbleIn the year 2000, if you said Nokia as a bubble and would correct you were called insane. It was not even possible for bulls to consider that the leader in Cellular phones with no competition would ever go down. NVDA is in a similar position today. The leader has everything to loose. They get over confident, make stupid investments, and the competion becomes more focused and innovative. The bubble growth leads to investor complacency and foolishness' to the point they don't even consider the Macro environmental factors degrading. All of this sets up for massive bear markets in such stocks.
NVIDIA Q3 earnings exceed expectations, but stock price falls
Nvidia's third-quarter earnings surpassed market expectations. The EPS stood at 81 cents, notably higher than the market consensus of 75 cents. Total sales reached almost $35 billion, exceeding the forecast of $33 billion. This impressive performance was highlighted by a remarkable 94% increase in total sales compared to last year's period, alongside a robust 106% surge in net profit.
Despite delivering a solid third-quarter performance, Nvidia's stock price took a hit. This drop occurred as the company's fourth-quarter sales guidance fell short of Wall Street's elevated expectations. The market had projected Nvidia's fourth-quarter sales to reach $37.5 billion, but the company revealed that it would instead be at $37.1 billion.
NVDA has fallen slightly since the earnings announcement and remains around 146.00. However, the price still remains within the ascending channel, indicating momentum. If NVDA sustains an uptrend within the channel, the price may gain upward momentum toward the 150.00 high. Conversely, if NVDA breaks below the channel’s lower bound, the price may fall further to 138.30.
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip recently:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NVDA NVIDIA Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 150usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-11-22,
for a premium of approximately $3.85.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Nvidia (NVDA) Shares Consolidating Below $150Nvidia (NVDA) Shares Consolidating Below $150
On October 22, while analysing Nvidia (NVDA) stock charts, we noted:
→ The stock had reached the $140 level;
→ A long-term ascending channel (shown in blue) was mapped;
→ Potential for price growth along the Quarter Line was suggested, dividing the lower half of the channel.
Bullish sentiment remains around Nvidia, one of the leading stocks of 2024, with the price now just below the $150 psychological mark about 29 days later. Nvidia’s technical analysis reveals that:
→ Price fluctuations are narrowing, forming a tightening triangle (illustrated with black lines), which may suggest consolidation as bulls hesitate before challenging a significant level;
→ Meanwhile, bears appear unable to gain momentum, as attempts to push prices down on wider candles (highlighted with red arrows) have not succeeded in setting a continued downtrend.
This indicates a balanced situation between demand and supply, with a slight edge for buyers. The sustainability of this buyer advantage will be tested if there’s an attempt to break above $150.
According to TipRanks:
→ 32 out of 42 analysts recommend buying NVDA stock;
→ The average price target for NVDA over the next 12 months is $157.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nvidia WeightIn Sept 2018, Nvidia was 0.91% of the Nasdaq, causing a 55% correction, and the Nasdaq dropped 22%.
In Dec 2021, Nvidia was 3.92%, leading to a 67% correction, and the Nasdaq fell 37%.
Now Nvidia is 14% of the Nasdaq. You do the math this time!
#Nasdaq #Nvidia
