NVDA trade ideas
Historical Volatility Bottoming on NVDANASDAQ:NVDA HV10 (bi-weekly) printed a coiled low for me on Friday May 9th, where today we saw the spring on great macro news release. I expect volatility to continue its regression journey to quarterly means throughout the company earnings report into the end of the month.
Should be a wild ride before consolidating with the broader markets.
IV on the local monthly closed 50.48% -- this leaves a divergence still from HV10 to IV of 13.05% and is leaving a premium move capture to HV63 of 31%!
This is why I love capturing a volatility sweeping move, because the premium per move is advantageous towards capital. I expect bi-weekly HV to trend up over the following week increasing our volatility range.
CHEERS!
NVDA Looks Ready to Pop – Here’s What I’m Watching 👀
Alright, I’ve been eyeing NVDA this week, and the setup is actually pretty clean across multiple timeframes. Let me break down what I’m seeing and what I’m thinking going into the next few sessions.
🧠 My Thought Process
So on the daily, NVDA’s been slowly crawling its way up underneath this big descending trendline. It hasn’t broken out yet, but the way it’s holding higher lows and pressing toward the top of that wedge tells me it’s gearing up. MACD’s starting to curl up, Stoch RSI is lifting — I just get the sense this thing doesn’t want to stay boxed in much longer.
I zoomed into the 1-hour, and you can see it’s still respecting that upward trendline. Price pulled back a bit but didn’t break structure — in fact, it bounced and started reclaiming some levels fast. 114–115 is the zone I’m watching. If we clear that with some conviction, I’m leaning bullish for a quick move toward 117–119.
📊 Options Flow / GEX View
Now this part gets interesting. GEX is showing some heavy call interest around 115, and that’s where we’re hovering right now. If we push above and hold, the next big call wall sits at 119, and then you’ve got the Gamma Resistance wall at 120 — that could trigger a fast pop if market makers have to start hedging aggressively.
On the flip side, HVL is at 110, so if we reject again at 115, we might get a flush down toward that level.
🛠️ How I’m Thinking About Trading It
If we break and hold over 115
→ I’ll consider grabbing some short-dated calls (maybe 117c or 119c for this week), but I’ll only size in if volume confirms.
→ Also might just scalp commons for a move to 118–120.
→ Stop would be below 112.5 or the 1H trendline.
If we reject 115 and lose 113
→ I’ll wait for confirmation, but I’d consider puts targeting that 110 HVL level. Not gonna force it though — want to see the trend shift first.
Final Thoughts
Not trying to front-run this — just letting the levels play out. But NVDA is in a pressure cooker, and it won’t stay quiet for long. I’ll be watching that 115 level closely. Above it, I’m bullish with targets at 117–119. If it stalls, I’ll sit back and wait to see if it gives a better entry off a pullback.
Let me know if you’re trading this too or seeing something different. Always down to compare notes.
Not financial advice — just walking through what I’m seeing and how I’d play it.
NVIDIA (NVDA) investors should knowHello NVIDIA (NVDA) investors,
Looking at the daily chart below, we see that NVDA briefly broke out of its long‑standing yellow descending channel only to be pulled back in; price is now testing horizontal support in the $100–150 range. In the lower pane, RSI remains negative and has yet to break its downtrend line around the 41 level.
Technical Analysis
Descending Channel:
The stock has been trading inside a long‑term descending channel. Selling pushed it back inside after a false breakout near $137–142. The upper channel line sits around $115—until we see a daily close above that, a true trend reversal is unlikely.
Horizontal Support/Resistance:
Support: $95-100 (confluence of past lows and the channel’s lower boundary)
Resistance: $147-150 (channel upper line), then $145–150 (early‑April highs)
RSI:
Currently ~41. A break above the RSI downtrend near 45–50 would signal improving momentum; if it fails, we could retest oversold territory.
Fundamental & Macro Factors
Quarterly Results:
NVDA reported strong revenue and margin growth last quarter, driven primarily by AI/data‑center demand.
AI & Data‑Center Demand:
Demand from AI‑focused servers and cloud providers remains very high, and this secular trend is expected to persist.
Trump’s Latest Tariffs:
In early March 2025, an additional %145 tariff on China‑origin semiconductors was announced. This measure may raise NVDA’s export costs to China and exert short‑term margin pressure. It also risks demand swings as Chinese buyers adjust their inventory strategies.
Strategic Recommendations
Stop‑Loss:
Consider a stop‑loss on daily closes below $90 to protect long positions.
Position Sizing:
Scale into longs near support, and take profits incrementally near resistance.
Tariff Watch:
Monitor any further U.S. export restrictions or tariff changes on China—each announcement can drive volatility
-Celil Adıgüzel
NVDA UP -MY MVP SYSTEM-
Momentum: NVDA has been moving in a down sloping pattern; it is now breaking out to the upside
Volume: vol spike when price dipped below the downtrend line (looks like a Wykoff spring); some overall inc vol lately
Price: it is <200ma, so caution is warranted; can’t rule out this downward channel as a possible bull flag; it’s a pretty clean move
*I don’t trade NVDA. I use it as a major market indicator. Over the past 1-2wks, my alerts went off for ES, NQ, and RTY - all to the upside. It would be nice to see gold move down for more confirmation that big $ is shifting into indices.
*The RSI is still around 50 and could definitely fake to the upside & then slice all the way down through the triangle.
*Weekly & Monthly charts still show a major break in the indices. This move up does not look like a resumption of a bull trend. A lot of repair would be needed on the long term charts for that.
NVDA eyes on $105: Support for one last DIP before new highs?Followup to my warning about $113.56 (click)
NVDA back to the Golden Genesis Fib, a major landmark.
If we are to see one more dip from here, look for $105.08
If we continue then lookout for the Golden Covid at $122.25
.
Big picture view showing the $113.56 Golden Genesis
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My buy view for NVIDIA stock explained My buy view for NVDA.
If positive fundamentals continue to outweigh bad news, we are likely to see NVDA push further up towards $120, $130, $140, and then its previous peak of $150.
Trade with care if you are day trading, but this baby is still selling at discount in my view
NVDA LongJust checked this stock which seems very good trade for now. With a flow of good news for the past week about the trade war between China and USA, there is a good possibility for a long trade in here. Also technically, a downtrend line has been broken, and liquidity got swept, so i cant see anything in the way of a long trade in here.
See this marked blue line, thats a down trend that got broken. Now i would be looking for this small gap to be filled and the price testing the downtrend.
Confirm on lower tf if the price would hold this trendline and wont go below it, then make an entry.
Flag like structure 2WPrice is consolidating in a downward channel or flag like structure; a bullish breakout can lead to price reaching to 134.85 price range,and a bearish breakout to price reaching 97.44 price range. Notice price is also between the 10 EMA in blue above and the 50 EMA in purple below. CCI is slowly returning from oversold territory. Stochastic RSI had a bullish crossover in oversold region. RSI is neutral. Price is also building up pressure in the Fibonacci golden zone.
NVIDIA 1D — When “Head & Shoulders” Aren’t Just for the GymOn the daily chart, NVDA has broken out of the descending channel and reclaimed the 50-day moving average (MA50), triggering a classic inverted head and shoulders formation. Price is now holding above the key $113–$114.50 zone, confirming a structural shift. As volume picks up, buyers are eyeing the next levels of resistance.
Near-term upside targets: – $119.80 (0.5 Fibonacci) – $127.62 (0.382) – $137.28 (0.236) — primary resistance zone – Extended target — $152.91 (1.0 Fibonacci projection)
Technical setup: — Breakout from channel + above MA50
— Inverted head and shoulders pattern completed
— $114.50–$118.00 now acts as buyer support
— EMA and MA convergence supports trend reversal
— Increasing volume on rallies supports bullish momentum
Fundamentals: NVIDIA remains the AI and semiconductor sector leader. Growing demand for high-performance GPUs in AI and data centers positions NVDA as a core tech play. Expectations of strong earnings and continued institutional accumulation support the bullish narrative.
The confirmed breakout and inverted H&S setup mark a clear structural reversal. As long as price stays above $114.50, the path toward $127–$137 remains the primary target zone, with $152.91 in sight if momentum continues.
Nvidia May Be Fighting HigherNvidia has been rebounding along with the broader market, and some traders may think it’s getting ready to accelerate.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the April 9 high of $115.10. The chip giant has challenged that level in the last two sessions. A close above that resistance may be viewed as confirmation of a breakout.
Second is the series of lower highs since mid-February. NVDA closed above that falling trendline yesterday and remains above it today.
Third, MACD has turned higher.
Finally, NVDA is a highly active underlier in the options market. (It averages 3.9 million contracts per day ranks first in the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts.
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NVDA watch $113.56: Golden Genesis fib and Most Important level NVDA has come back to its "Golden Genesis" fib.
We had a high apogee orbit and have returned.
What happens here will determine the trend.
It is PROBABLE that we orbit this a few times.
It is POSSIBLE that we reject to the fib below.
It is PLAUSIBLE that we break to next fib above.
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NVDA: Should I Pull The Trigger ?Stock analysis coming this week from various sources saying "Time to Pull The Trigger on NVDA" .. Is it ?
Let's take a quick look ..
- NVDA has recently formed the famous VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) - a good sign for a possible breakout soon
- but the VCP is forming below the 50SMA (blue) and 100SMA(gray) lines
- also there's a "supply pocket" (white rectangle) forming a resistance area at $115
- the good sign is, yesterday (on hype from GOOG and MSFT earnings, NVDA finally broke towards the 50SMA and looks like trying to get above) - first time since wk4 Feb
So when is the ideal entry? what do i need to see ?
=====================================
- Price needs to get above the 50SMA (blue Line) - Which will cause the MACD main line to get into positive zone
- 20SMA (purple line) gets above 50SMA (blue line)
- Ideally price breaks above the 2 pivot levels marked on the chart $115 and $123
- The US market needs to stabilize for all of this to happen :)
- Note: NVDA analysts (upside) price targets are between $160 (avg) to $236 (highest) - See NVDA forecast page in TV. So patience should be rewarded. Let's get to the safe zone first.
thoughts ?
NVIDIA Massive bullish break-out after 4 months of selling.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) made a critical bullish break-out yesterday (in the aftermath of Meta's and Microsoft AI capex numbers) as it didn't just break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that has been intact as a Resistance since February 27 but also above the top of the Channel Down that has been the dominant pattern throughout this correction since the January 07 All Time High (ATH).
The 1D RSI is on an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which is always bullish and if NVDA closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50 next, then our short-term Target will be 143.50, which is just below Resistance 1 and the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
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Chart Pattern Analysis Of NVDA
The recent several candles is a consolidation along the resistance.
And the supply pressure keeps at low level.
K1 is a bullish candle and it is also a potential right shoulder of a larger scale bullish head-shoulder pattern.
If the following candles close upon K2,
It is likely that another bull run will start here to test 125USD area.
On the other hand,
If K3 close below the bull gap at K2,
The risk will increase.
Long-110.5/Stop-109/Target-125
NVDA LTFLocal price action - the gap from 4/29 was filled in, but it left another gap on 4/30. During aftermarket hours, the price jumped up and approached the weekly level above but got rejected and finished the day red. We got a naked untapped pivot point below along with the range POC point of control.. not a bad week of price action.
From a range perspective price deviated to both sides and finisheded the day seemingly falling back into range. Let's see how the week ends.
NVDA Day Trade Plan for 04/29/2025NVDA Day Trade Plan for 04/29/2025
📈 111.90 109.90
📉 105.90 103.90
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
Please like and share for more ES/NQ levels Tues & Thurs 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Nvda low time frameLocal price action - the gap from 4/29 was filled in, but another was left on 4/30. During aftermarket hours the price jumped up to approach the weekly level above and dropped back down. We got a naked untapped pivot point below along with the range POC point of control, not a bad week of price action.
How much money do I have? My real investment portfolioI’ve decided to start sharing my trades in a live-report format. What you see here is my actual portfolio — no fluff. Just the stock and crypto markets.
📊 Key Stats:
• 💰 Total across brokerage accounts: $22,167
• 📈 Profit since I started investing in 2020: $12,803
• ⚖️ Return: Around 60% total, with an average annual return of ~19%
📦 Portfolio Breakdown:
🧠 Top Performer — Nvidia
• Open positions: 6 shares
• Total profit including closed positions: $4,202
⚛️ Bet on Quantum Tech
• Holdings: QBTS and IONQ
• Long-term play with high potential
📈 Index Funds — Not a Priority
• Profit over 5 years: $523
• No open positions currently
🧨 Options — My Favourite Tool
• Total profit: $2,646
• Currently 2 open positions:
• NVDA 21NOV25 110P (sold put)
• AMD 21NOV25 80P (sold put)
If you would like to get nice overview in analytical platform drop a comment
What Is Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) in Investing and Trading?What Is Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) in Investing and Trading?
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is a popular strategy used by investors and traders to manage market fluctuations and build positions over time. Instead of trying to time the market, DCA focuses on consistent, regular investments regardless of price movements. This article answers “What is DCA?”, its advantages and limitations, and how it can be applied in both investing and trading.
What Is Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)?
So what is DCA investing? Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is a strategy that involves consistently investing a fixed sum at regular intervals, regardless of the asset’s current price. This approach helps distribute the cost of purchases over time, potentially reducing the impact of short-term price fluctuations. Instead of trying to time the market perfectly—a challenging task even for experienced traders—a dollar-cost averaging strategy focuses on regular contributions to average the cost of assets.
This method offers a straightforward, disciplined strategy for both long-term investors and traders who wish to build or adjust positions gradually. By spreading out purchases, a DCA strategy may help mitigate the effects of market volatility. For example, during a period of market decline, the fixed investment buys more units at a lower cost, which could result in higher returns when prices recover. Conversely, during a sustained rise, the investor buys fewer units, which helps avoid overexposure. For example, if you invest $50 every week and the market is rising, you will buy fewer stocks, but when the market is moving down, you will buy more with the same amount.
What does DCA mean for market participants? DCA is particularly useful in uncertain economic environments where price swings are common. It provides a systematic approach to entering the market, removing the need to make snap decisions based on short-term market movements, and fostering a steady accumulation of assets over time.
How Does DCA Work?
DCA investing operates by establishing a regular schedule for investing a set amount of money into a chosen asset, regardless of its current market price. Instead of waiting for a particular price or market condition, funds are allocated at consistent intervals—be it weekly, monthly, or quarterly. Over time, this means buying more units when prices are lower and fewer units when prices are higher, resulting in an average purchase price that can be lower than if the investment was made in one lump sum.
Consider an investor using DCA. They commit £100 every month to buy company shares. In the first month, the share price is £20, so they purchase 5 shares. The next month, the price drops to £10, allowing them to buy 10 shares with the same £100. In the third month, the price rises to £25, and they purchase 4 shares.
Over three months, the investor has spent £300 and acquired 19 shares in total. To calculate the average cost per share, divide £300 by 19, which equals approximately £15.79 per share. This average is lower than the highest price paid and reflects the effect of buying more shares when prices are low and fewer when prices are high.
DCA also simplifies the process of entering the market. By adhering to a set timetable, investors bypass the need for constant market analysis, making it particularly appealing for those who prefer a more hands-off strategy. This systematic approach can be applied not only to traditional investments like shares and funds but also to other assets that traders and investors engage with.
DCA in Trading
DCA isn't just for long-term investors; traders can also employ it to navigate the ups and downs of fast-moving markets. By spreading out their entries or exits, traders may potentially lower the average cost of a position or build on a winning trend, all while managing their exposure to volatile moves.
Lowering the Average Price
For traders facing a position that's moving against them, DCA offers a way to adjust the average entry cost. By allocating additional funds, the average price of the position may be reduced. This approach can create a potential opportunity to exit with better returns if the market reverses. However, it is important to note that this method also increases exposure, and additional entities might compound losses if the trend continues.
Adding to a Winner
Conversely, traders may apply DCA to increase their positions when an asset shows strength. By gradually adding to an effective trade, the overall exposure is built in a controlled manner, potentially capturing further movement without committing all capital at once. This method is particularly popular in markets where momentum builds slowly, allowing traders to gradually take advantage of the sustained trend.
Applications Across Markets
Using DCA in stocks can help manage entries during periods of volatility, especially when market sentiment shifts rapidly. Forex traders often use similar techniques to adjust positions in response to fluctuating currency pairs, while the high volatility seen in crypto* markets makes DCA an appealing strategy for building positions gradually.
When using DCA in trading, a disciplined approach is essential. Whether lowering the average cost in a losing position or building on an effective trade, traders should carefully consider the additional risk that comes with increased exposure.
Advantages of Dollar-Cost Averaging
Dollar-cost averaging offers a range of advantages that make it an attractive strategy for both investors and traders, especially when navigating uncertain markets.
Mitigating Market Volatility
By investing a fixed amount at regular intervals, DCA spreads out exposure over time. This approach can reduce the impact of sudden market swings. Instead of being affected by a one-off high price, the average cost is spread across different market conditions. This may help stabilise entry points and smooth out short-term volatility.
Disciplined Investment Approach
DCA promotes a structured investment routine. With regular contributions, there is less temptation to try timing the market. This disciplined approach might be particularly useful when markets are highly volatile or ahead of news and economic events. It encourages systematic investing, reducing the likelihood of making impulsive decisions driven by market noise.
Accessibility for All Traders
DCA does not require intricate market analysis or deep expertise in market timing. Its straightforward nature makes it appealing to both newcomers and seasoned traders looking for a simpler method to build positions over time. By providing a clear framework, DCA allows traders to focus on long-term goals without the pressure of constant market monitoring.
Limitations of Dollar-Cost Averaging
While dollar-cost averaging offers a structured approach to investing and trading, there are some limitations to consider.
Potential Opportunity Cost
Spreading out investments means funds are gradually deployed over time. In a market that is consistent, waiting to invest might lead to missed returns compared to committing all funds upfront. This method can reduce the impact of volatility but might underperform during extended trends.
Continued Exposure to Market Trends
Investors remain exposed to the market throughout the investment period. If the market experiences a prolonged trend, regular investments will accumulate at better prices, but overall returns may still suffer. This approach does not eliminate market risk and requires a long-term perspective to potentially see a turnaround.
Dependence on Consistency
The effectiveness of dollar-cost averaging relies heavily on maintaining a consistent investment schedule. Any interruption or inconsistency can dilute the intended advantages of the strategy. It also assumes that investors are able to commit regular funds, which may not be feasible in all financial situations.
Comparing DCA to Lump-Sum Investing
Comparing DCA to lump-sum investing offers insights into different approaches to managing market exposure and returns.
Risk Exposure
Lump-sum investing involves placing all available funds into an asset at once. This method can yield higher returns if the market moves in their favour, but it also exposes the investor to immediate risk if the market moves against them. In contrast, risk is spread over time through a dollar-cost average, meaning regular investments reduce the likelihood of entering the market at a high point and potentially lowering the overall average cost.
Market Conditions
The performance of each approach can vary depending on market trends. In steady trends, lump-sum investing may capture more returns since all funds are deployed early. However, in volatile or declining conditions, DCA could mitigate the effects of short-term fluctuations by smoothing out entry prices over time.
Flexibility and Commitment
Lump-sum investing requires confidence and a readiness to commit all funds immediately. DCA, on the other hand, offers a more measured entry into the market. This method is popular among those who prefer a systematic approach and might not have a large sum available at one time.
The Bottom Line
Understanding the dollar-cost averaging definition can help investors and traders potentially manage market volatility and reduce emotional decision-making. While it has its limitations, DCA can be an effective strategy for building positions over time.
FAQ
What Is an Example of Dollar-Cost Averaging?
Imagine investing £100 into a stock every month, regardless of its price. In January, the stock costs £20, so you buy five shares. In February, the price drops to £10, allowing you to buy 10 shares. In March, the price rises to £25, and you buy four shares. Over three months, you’ve invested £300 and purchased 19 shares, averaging out your cost per share to £15.79.
Is There the Best Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy?
The most effective DCA strategy depends on individual goals. A consistent, long-term approach with regular investments—whether weekly or monthly—may help smooth out market volatility. Focusing on diversified assets could also reduce risk exposure.
What Is the Daily DCA Strategy?
This strategy involves investing a fixed amount every day through DCA, meaning it may help minimise the impact of short-term price fluctuations in volatile markets. However, it requires careful planning due to frequent transactions and potential fees.
Does Dollar-Cost Averaging Work With Stocks?
Yes, DCA is commonly used with stocks. It may help manage the effects of market volatility, allowing investors to build positions over time without worrying about short-term price swings.
What Does DCA Mean in Stocks?
DCA, or dollar-cost averaging, in stocks, means regularly investing a fixed amount, regardless of price, to average out the cost per share over time and manage market volatility. A similar answer is true for “What does DCA mean in crypto*?”, except it would involve a regular fixed investment in a particular cryptocurrency*.
How to Calculate DCA in Crypto* Investing?
There is a simple formula to calculate DCA, meaning in crypto*, an investor would just divide the total amount invested by the total number of units purchased. This provides the average cost per unit over time, regardless of price fluctuations.
*Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NVDA Rallying After Trump Roundtable – Will the Momentum Hold? 💥Today’s rally in NASDAQ:NVDA got a little extra fuel after CEO Jensen Huang spoke at Trump’s investor roundtable. From what I’m seeing on the chart, the market liked it—at least in the short term.
Let me walk you through what I’m thinking as I line up the Daily vs. 1H timeframes and weigh that against options sentiment from the GEX chart.
🕰 Daily Chart View:
Price is trying to recover inside a downtrend channel, and today’s candle is testing the breakdown zone around $110–113. Momentum is definitely building, with MACD ticking higher and Stoch RSI pushing into bullish territory. But... we’re still technically below a key breakdown trendline (starting from the $150+ level), so bulls need continuation soon or it risks another fade.
⏱ 1H Chart Analysis:
The 1-hour chart looks a lot more bullish than the daily. After breaking through $107, NVDA exploded through key levels and is now pressing against $113.96 (GEX Gamma Wall) below. That’s also the highest net positive GEX level, so we could be entering a zone of dealer hedging that resists more upside unless flows get really aggressive.
You’ll also notice IVX is elevated (58.2), IVR is low (34.8), and GEX is neutral to slightly green. There’s a CALL-heavy structure forming up to $115, with the market currently coiling beneath it.
🔁 My Thought Process:
I think the CEO's participation in the Trump investor meeting gave institutions some reassurance, and that may explain the sharp bounce from $107. However, unless we can hold above $114 and squeeze into $115–$117, I see this as more of a trader’s move than a longer-term breakout just yet.
🎯 Trade Setup Idea:
* For Calls: Wait for a clean break above $114 → potential target zone: $117–120. Stops below $110.
* For Puts: If price fails again near $113.50–114 and we see weakness into the afternoon, watch for $110 → $107 retrace.
* Neutral: If we chop under the Gamma Wall and IV remains high, premiums may decay fast — sit out unless a clean direction emerges.
🧠 Final Thoughts:
I’ll stay flexible. GEX shows us $113.96 is the tug-of-war zone right now, and if bulls can reclaim and hold above it with volume, we could shift toward a gamma squeeze. But I’m also aware it might be a fade if the momentum stalls now that the Trump headline is digested.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
NVDA - BullishForecast a break-out up as the price increased by 3.3% in the after hours.
- The price area in a falling wedge, almost a descending channel.
- The MACD indicator in the Weekly frame shows an uptrend after a rare day of oversold (04.04.2025).
The price today (04.30.2025): $108.92.
Price target: $135.00.
Stop loss: $95.00.
IMO, amateur trader.