PANW trade ideas
3/31/25 - $panw - Adding once again...3/31/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PANW
Adding once again...
- trading position
- but >3% fcf yields on industry winner
- u see that google txn on Wiz for $32 bn? here's 109 bn and dominant
- mid teens growth unaffected by tariffs
- if anything more cross border cyber warfare is secular "issue" that benefits these guys
- since last writing, they put up a great quarter
- but the mkt just correlation 1 here
- so trading this long. would love to size it up, but of course that would probably require closer to $150 to add it to the MT/ LT book
- nonetheless, it's a buy here.
V
Anticipated Growth Post-CorrectionKey arguments in support of the idea.
We view the current correction as an advantageous entry point for investors.
The negative effects of U.S. tariffs imposed on other countries are expected to be minimal for Palo Alto Networks.
Investment Thesis
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) is a U.S. company dedicated to cybersecurity. It develops cutting-edge solutions designed to protect enterprise networks, cloud environments, and endpoints from cyber threats. The company’s flagship offerings include next-generation firewalls (NGFW), SASE security platforms (Prisma Access), and cloud infrastructure protection solutions (Prisma Cloud). PANW leverages artificial intelligence and machine learning extensively to detect and thwart cyber attacks. The company serves a diverse clientele that spans large enterprises, government agencies, and cloud service providers worldwide. It is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
We view the current correction as an advantageous entry point. Despite the robust first-quarter FY 2025 financial results that exceeded both internal forecasts and market expectations, Palo Alto Networks’ stock is experiencing nearly a 5% decline in the premarket. The main disappointment for investors was the weakerthan-expected guidance for the third quarter of FY 2025 adjusted diluted EPS. However, the company has raised its financial performance forecast for FY 2025, amid stronger revenue growth. The fundamentals of the business remain strong. Palo Alto Networks is aggressively expanding its platform solutions with AI integration, enhancing its competitive edge in the industry. In the second quarter, the company secured approximately 75 new platformization deals, a substantial increase from 45 in the same period last year. Overall, the number of platforms adopted by its top 5,000 customers exceeded 1,150, compared to 850 a year earlier. Additionally, the number of customers utilizing two platforms increased by more than 50% y/y in the second quarter, and the number of customers using three platforms tripled compared to the previous year. The adoption of a platform approach within Cortex also more than tripled y/y, signaling significant growth in XSIAM’s popularity. This trend reinforces the view that the future of cybersecurity lies in AI-driven platforms that can dramatically accelerate threat response. We view the current market correction as an opportune entry point.
The negative effects of U.S. tariffs imposed on other countries are expected to be minimal for Palo Alto Networks. The company upgrades its contract manufacturing facility in Texas to a primary manufacturing and order fulfillment center. This enables the company to scale and innovate its devices while benefiting from the foreign trade zone status. This move will help mitigate tariff costs on international shipments. Furthermore, all firewalls are assembled and manufactured in the U.S., rendering the impact of tariffs against China negligible on the company’s future earnings.
The target price for the shares is $220, the rating is Sell. We recommend setting a stop loss at $167.
PANW Palo Alto Networks Options Ahead of EarningsSnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PANW Palo Alto Networks prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 195usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-2-21,
for a premium of approximately $9.90.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Can Quantum Security Save Our Digital Future?In the relentless evolution of cybersecurity, Palo Alto Networks is at the forefront, challenging the conventional with the introduction of the Quantum Random Number Generator (QRNG) Open API framework. This innovative approach not only aims to combat the looming threats posed by quantum computing but also redefines how we think about security in a digital world increasingly intertwined with AI and machine learning. By fostering collaboration across different QRNG technology providers, Palo Alto Networks is not just enhancing security measures but is also setting a new standard for industry-wide interoperability.
The company's commitment extends beyond technological innovation into practical applications, as evidenced by its strategic partnership with IBM and the UK Home Office to secure the Emergency Services Network. This initiative showcases Palo Alto Networks' capability to integrate advanced security solutions into critical infrastructure, ensuring resilience against cyber threats in real-world scenarios. Moreover, their achievement of the FedRAMP High Authorization for their cybersecurity platforms marks a significant milestone, affirming their role in safeguarding even the most sensitive government data.
But the implications of Palo Alto Networks' advancements go deeper, challenging us to rethink our approach to digital security. Their platformization strategy, which unifies disparate security tools into cohesive platforms, not only streamlines security operations but also leverages AI to provide smarter, more proactive defense mechanisms. This strategic pivot towards a more integrated and intelligent security ecosystem is not just about managing current threats but about preparing for an unpredictable future where digital threats could evolve beyond our current comprehension.
In essence, Palo Alto Networks is not merely responding to the cybersecurity challenges of today; they are reimagining them for tomorrow. By pushing the boundaries of what's possible with quantum security and platform integration, they invite us to question: Are we ready for a world where security is as dynamic and forward-thinking as the threats it aims to counter? This thought-provoking journey into the future of cybersecurity compels us to stay informed, engaged, and critically aware of how we protect our digital lives.
Major Price Movement Incoming for PANW!Signalist has detected a precise pattern in NASDAQ:PANW trading activity, signaling that a substantial price movement is imminent. This isn’t a random fluctuation—it’s a carefully analyzed precursor to a significant market event.
📅 What to Expect:
⌛ Timeline: Anticipate a major move within the next 1 to 4 upcoming 3-hour candles.
📈 Monitor the Charts: Keep an eye on PANW’s price action over the next few candles.
Prepare Your Strategy: Whether you’re bullish or bearish, have your trading plan ready to capitalize on the move.
PANW bumping on the 200 day SMAPalo Alto Networks (PANW) the heavy weight in the Cybersecurity ETF HACK has had a very bad last few weeks. The recent correction brought the stock to the 200 Day SMA. In the past every time this happened there has been a rebound form the 200 Day SMA. Will this time will it be different ?
PANW Long at 172.83 (quick flip)PANW is in the midst of a long overdue breather in a year long uptrend and after its rocket run from August through early December when it gained over 35%. Its correction may not be over yet, though I don't think it will drop much below 165 near term unless the whole market sells off. I'm just in for a quick buck so it all doesn't matter much to me anyway. 4 down days in 5 is also a selling point for me here. I went long at the close today at 172.83
Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day my algo still rates it as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
Palo Alto Networks: Top Established!PANW reached a new peak at $207.24 on December 16. Although the price briefly moved above the significant $200 threshold, it failed to gain traction at higher levels. Thus, we now consider the top of the beige wave B as established and position the stock in the third and final stage of the larger wave (II) correction. From the wave B peak, the stock has already seen a pullback of approximately 20%. We anticipate that this downward movement will continue and ultimately reach our blue Target Zone between $104.74 and $55.73, where the ongoing downtrend should find its bottom. In our alternative scenario, we assign a 30% probability to an immediate breach of the resistance at $207.24. In this case, we would have to reckon with a new high of the blue wave alt.(I).
1/8/25 - $panw - Good LT r/r <$170... going small1/8/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PANW
Good LT r/r <$170... going small
- NASDAQ:PANW is the NASDAQ:NVDA of cyber
- i also like NYSE:S , NASDAQ:ZS , NASDAQ:OKTA , NYSE:CACI , $cyber (today) and at a better px NASDAQ:CRWD (and at a much better px NYSE:NET )
back to panw
- move today in mkts feels more risk off/ pan adjustment based on rates higher, trump soon to assume office, mkt off to decent start into beginning of year
- many names are on their backs, i've written about NASDAQ:OLPX as an example where i've re-started position today
- but ideally you want to own companies crushing the marketplace (bottoms up growth) and fairly valued with reason to believe they will continue to beat. look no further than $panw.
- not cheap at >10x sales, but you get an established player, killer-mindset CEO and nearly 3.5-4% fcf yield (that btw grows double digit). in the rising rates world, will market demand 4-5%? idk. but at this px, i'm happy to leg in. i'd like to own it closer to $150 but my sizing allows me to be indifferent and believe i'm making a solid bet on today's wick-off.
V
Investing in Cybersecurity: PANW vs CRWD vs FTNT◉ Abstract
The cybersecurity landscape is rapidly evolving, with emerging threats and innovative solutions driving growth in the industry. This article examines the competitive dynamics between three leading cybersecurity stocks: Palo Alto Networks (PANW), CrowdStrike (CRWD), and Fortinet (FTNT). As these companies sprint to become the top cybersecurity provider, we analyse their strengths, weaknesses, and strategies for success.
◉ Global Cybersecurity Market Overview
The global cybersecurity market has experienced significant growth and is projected to continue expanding in the coming years. As of 2023, the market was valued at approximately USD 192.4 billion and is expected to reach between USD 501 billion and USD 608 billion by 2033, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) ranging from 9% to 12% depending on the source and forecast period considered.
◉ Growth Drivers
1. Increasing Cyber Threats: The frequency and sophistication of cyber-attacks, including ransomware and data breaches, are rising, prompting organizations to enhance their security measures.
2. Digital Transformation: The rapid adoption of digital technologies, such as cloud computing and the Internet of Things (IoT), expands the attack surface and necessitates robust cybersecurity solutions.
3. Regulatory Compliance: Stricter regulations regarding data protection, like GDPR and CCPA, compel organizations to invest in cybersecurity to ensure compliance and protect sensitive information.
4. Proliferation of Smart Devices: The increasing use of connected devices in homes and industries creates more entry points for cyber threats, driving demand for advanced security solutions.
5. E-commerce Growth: The rise in online transactions increases the need for secure payment systems and data protection, further fuelling the cybersecurity market.
Remote Work Trends: The shift towards remote work has heightened the need for secure remote access solutions to protect organizational data from cyber threats.
◉ Regional Insights
● North America: This region dominates the global cybersecurity market, accounting for over 36% of the market share. The presence of major tech firms and a high incidence of cyber threats contribute to its leadership position.
● Europe: The European market is also growing rapidly due to increased digital transformation efforts and regulatory pressures that emphasize data security.
● Asia-Pacific: Expected to exhibit the fastest growth rate during the forecast period, driven by industrialization, rising internet penetration, and awareness of cybersecurity risks.
◉ Major Players in the Cybersecurity Market
1. Palo Alto Networks NASDAQ:PANW - $132.7 B
2. CrowdStrike Holdings NASDAQ:CRWD - $89.7 B
3. Fortinet NASDAQ:FTNT - $75.26 B
In this comparative analysis we are focused to provide a detailed understanding of the competitive dynamics of three cybersecurity giants: Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike Holdings, and Fortinet.
◉ Company Overviews
● Palo Alto Networks
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is a leading provider of cybersecurity solutions worldwide. The company offers a range of products and services, including network security platforms, cloud security solutions, security operation solutions, subscription services, and professional services. Headquartered in Santa Clara, California, Palo Alto Networks was incorporated in 2005 and has since become a trusted partner for organizations seeking to protect themselves from cyber threats.
● CrowdStrike Holdings
CrowdStrike provides cloud-delivered cybersecurity solutions, offering endpoint, cloud workload, identity, and data protection. Its Falcon platform provides various security services, including threat intelligence, vulnerability management, and AI-powered workflow automation. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, CrowdStrike was incorporated in 2011.
● Fortinet
Fortinet, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California. The company provides comprehensive cybersecurity and converged networking and security solutions worldwide. Its offerings include secure networking solutions, network firewall solutions, wireless LAN solutions, and secure connectivity solutions. Additionally, Fortinet provides Unified SASE solutions, security operations solutions, and a range of security services and support. The company serves a diverse customer base, including enterprises, service providers, governments, and small and medium-sized businesses.
◉ Strategic Growth Initiatives of Leading Cybersecurity Players
● Palo Alto Networks
1. Platformization: Transitioning from a traditional firewall vendor to a comprehensive cybersecurity platform provider, offering a wider range of security solutions.
2. Next-Generation Security: Continuing to deliver advanced security solutions to address evolving cyber threats.
● CrowdStrike
1. Innovation: Leveraging AI-powered capabilities to enhance the Falcon platform and maintain a competitive edge in the cybersecurity market.
2. Expansion: Expanding into adjacent markets, such as cloud security and identity protection, to broaden its customer base and product offerings.
● Fortinet
1. "Rule of 45" Framework: Adhering to the "Rule of 45" framework to balance revenue growth with profitability, ensuring a sustainable business model.
2. Product Refresh Cycle: Implementing a strategic product refresh cycle to drive upgrade activity among existing customers and stimulate revenue growth.
◉ Technical Standings
● Palo Alto Networks
➖ The stock has been on a strong upward trajectory, marked by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
➖ Following a significant breakout last month, it is currently trading at an all-time high, with expectations for further increases.
● CrowdStrike Holdings
➖ In general, this stock is trending upward, although it has faced considerable price volatility over an extended period.
➖ After reaching an all-time high close to the 400 mark, it underwent a sharp correction.
However, the stock is now climbing again and nearing its previous peak.
● Fortinet
➖ This stock had undergone a lengthy consolidation phase lasting nearly three years, resulting in the development of a Broadening pattern.
➖ After a recent breakout, the price is now targeting new highs.
◉ Relative Strength
➖ The chart clearly demonstrates Fortinet's exceptional performance, showcasing an impressive return of nearly 88%. In comparison, Mastercard and Visa have generated returns of 53% and 41%, respectively.
◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis
● Palo Alto Networks
◾ Year-over-Year
➖ In FY24, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) celebrated an impressive revenue surge of 16.5%, achieving $8,027 million, a notable increase from $6,893 million in FY23.
➖ The EBITDA for FY24 also experienced a substantial boost, reaching $1,094 million, up from $590 million in FY23.
◾ Quarter-over-Quarter
➖ In the most recent October quarter, PANW reported revenues of $2,139 million, a slight dip from the $2,190 million recorded in July 2024. However, this still represents a year-over-year growth of nearly 14% from $1,878 million in the same quarter last year.
➖ The company also reported its highest-ever EBITDA of $413 million in October, an increase from $314 million in July 2024. Compared to the same quarter last year, this figure has risen by almost 20% from $279.5 million.
➖ In October, the diluted EPS rose to $7.69 (LTM), up from $7.28 (LTM) in July 2024, marking an extraordinary year-over-year increase of 333% from $1.78 (LTM).
● CrowdStrike
◾ Year-over-Year
➖ CrowdStrike (CRWD) saw a robust revenue growth of 36.3% in FY23, reaching $3,055 million, up from $2,241 million in FY22.
➖ Conversely, the EBITDA for FY24 has seen a decline, reporting $106 million, down from $118 million in FY23.
◾ Quarter-over-Quarter
➖ In the latest October quarter, CRWD's revenue rose to $1,010 million, compared to $964 million in July 2024. This reflects a year-over-year increase of nearly 28.5% from $786 million in the same quarter last year.
➖ The EBITDA for the most recent June quarter was $15.3 million, showing a significant drop from $52.4 million in July 2024.
➖ In October, the diluted EPS decreased to $0.51 (LTM), down from $0.69 (LTM) in July 2024.
● Fortinet
◾ Year-over-Year
➖ In fiscal year 2023, Fortinet reported a remarkable revenue increase of 20%, reaching $5,304 million, up from $4,417 million in fiscal year 2022.
➖ The EBITDA also saw a significant rise, with the 2023 fiscal year totaling $1,350 million, compared to $1,070 million the previous year.
◾ Quarter-over-Quarter
➖ In the latest September quarter, revenue continued to grow, hitting $1,508 million, an increase from $1,434 million in June 2024. This represents a substantial year-over-year growth of nearly 13% from $1,335 million.
➖ Furthermore, EBITDA for the September quarter neared $500 million, up from $465 million in the prior quarter, reflecting an impressive increase of nearly 51% from $330 million in the same quarter last year.
➖ The diluted earnings per share (EPS) also saw a significant increase in September, rising to $0.7 (LTM) from $0.5 (LTM) in June 2024, marking a notable jump of 70% compared to $0.41 (LTM) in the same quarter last year.
◉ Valuation
● P/E Ratio
➖ PANW stands at a P/E ratio of 48.6x.
➖ CRWD is at a P/E ratio of 707.9x.
➖ FTNT shows a P/E ratio of 49.2x.
◾ These numbers indicate that CRWD is considerably overvalued when compared to its competitors.
● P/B Ratio
➖ PANW's P/B ratio stands at 22.5x.
➖ CRWD's P/B ratio is 29.3x.
➖ On the other hand, FTNT's P/B ratio is significantly higher at 82.9x.
◾ FTNT's high P/B ratio may indicate overvaluation, but its asset-light business model reduces the significance of this metric.
● PEG Ratio
➖ PANW boasts a PEG ratio of 0.14.
➖ CRWD's PEG ratio is recorded at 0.66.
➖ FTNT, meanwhile, has a PEG ratio of 1.26.
◾ Analyzing the PEG ratios reveals that PANW is currently undervalued relative to its peers.
◉ Cash Flow Analysis
➖ PANW has achieved an impressive operating cash flow of $3,257 million for the fiscal year 2024, a substantial rise from $2,777 million in fiscal year 2023.
➖ In a similar vein, CRWD has also seen a positive trend in its operating cash flow, which has climbed to $1,166 million in fiscal year 2024, compared to $941 million the year before.
➖ Furthermore, FTNT has reported a remarkable increase in its operating cash flow, growing from $1,730 million in fiscal year 2022 to $1,935 million in fiscal year 2023.
◉ Debt Analysis
● Palo Alto Networks
➖ Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 0.1 as of October 2024, indicating a stable financial structure.
➖ Total Debt: About $645 million.
➖ Total Shareholder Equity: $5,911 million.
◾ PANW's ratio reflects a cautious debt approach, balancing equity and debt financing, with net debt well-supported by operating cash flow, enhancing financial stability.
● CrowdStrike
➖ Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 0.24.
➖ Total Debt: $743 million.
➖ Total Shareholder Equity: $3,096 million.
◾ CRWD's ratio suggests a thoughtful strategy regarding debt, maintaining a balance between equity and debt financing.
● Fortinet
➖ Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 1.1, indicating a significant level of debt relative to equity.
➖ Total Debt: $993 million.
➖ Total Shareholder Equity: $908 million.
◾ FTNT’s ratio shows a considerable reliance on debt financing, which can facilitate growth but also introduces risks related to interest obligations.
◉ Top Shareholders
● Palo Alto Networks
➖ The Vanguard Group has significantly increased its investment in Palo Alto Networks, now holding an impressive 9.13% stake, which marks a 1.53% rise from the last quarter.
➖ In comparison, Blackrock holds a notable 7.65% share in the company.
● CrowdStrike
➖ Turning to CrowdStrike, The Vanguard Group has also enhanced its position, elevating its ownership to an impressive 8.76%, reflecting a 1.84% increase since the previous quarter.
➖ Conversely, Blackrock possesses a considerable 7.35% stake.
● Fortinet
➖ Regarding Fortinet, The Vanguard Group commands a substantial 8.79% share in the firm.
➖ In contrast, Blackrock holds a 7.44% stake.
◉ Conclusion
After conducting an exhaustive analysis of the major players in the cybersecurity sector, which included an in-depth look at both technical features and financial reports, we have determined that although Palo Alto Networks (PANW) might seem more appealing in terms of valuation, Fortinet (FTNT) stands out as the leading candidate in the industry due to its solid financials. Although concerns about debt exist, the company's strong cash reserves mitigate these worries significantly.
On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) has faced a recent setback with an outage that has shaken investor trust, leading to a decline in its stock price and rendering it a less favourable investment option for the foreseeable future.
Moreover, the cybersecurity sector is set to grow significantly due to rising cyber threats, fast-paced technology changes, and stricter regulations. Investors are advised to conduct thorough research, define clear investment goals, and maintain a long-term outlook to take advantage of this growth while minimizing risks.
Palo Alto Networks Set to Break Out: A Trade Idea for Next WeekRecent Performance: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) has recently shown strong signs
of stability, consolidating its position in the high $300s and inching
closer to a significant resistance level at $400. This performance indicates
a buildup of investor interest and sets the stage for a potential upward
breakout.
- Key Insights: Investors are encouraged to consider building positions in PANW
around the high $300s ahead of a potential breakout above the $400 mark. The
consistent demand in the cybersecurity sector combined with PANW's strategic
market positioning highlights the stock as an attractive buy.
- Expert Analysis: Experts are generally bullish on PANW, with many analysts
advocating for investments with an eye on the resistance at $400. The
anticipated movement in the stock price reflects positive market sentiment
supported by ongoing cybersecurity demands. Their commentary suggests that a
sustained move above $400 could lead to significant gains.
- Sentiment Analysis: Current sentiment: 67.5 Last week: 0 Change: 67.5 Total
mentions: 3
- Price Targets: Based on professional analysis:
Next week targets: T1 = 420, T2 = 430 Stop levels: S1 = 378, S2 = 370
- News Impact: A noteworthy announcement of a 2-for-1 stock split scheduled for
December 16, 2024, is expected to boost liquidity and accessibility for
investors. Alongside the ongoing demand for cybersecurity solutions, this
news could enhance sentiment and attract further interest in PANW leading up
to the split.
$PANW is on Watch I would like to see PANW (Pelosi's baby) Tag $400 and $395 is my near term target. There are some out of the money puts at $375 and its pretty heavy at this level. hoping this can become tailwind and launch PANW while its in a call dominated structure, currently sitting at the best entry to scale in for a momentum trade. Under $382 and this move is a bust.
PANW LONG IDEA. Yearly Levels.I pulled my fibs off the yearly move to high and got these levels. I expect a test of this level once the yearly candle prints and will target for a 50% move. This is a first test of these levels and I expect a reaction off my box. Easy stop loss below. Let me know your thoughts.