is QQQ just starting its new breakout?looks like Q's have brokeout and retested this huge fib ext. from the last bear market in 21-22. we now move onto 660
QQQ trade ideas
HOW-TO: Connect Indicators to the PSE, Practical Strategy EngineThis is a detailed video of how to connect your indicator(s) to the PSE, Practical Strategy Engine via the "Connection Indicator for the PSE".
Note:
The video shows the "PSE, Practical Strategy Engine" as "PSE".
The video shows the "Connection Indicator for the PSE" as "Connection Ind for PSE".
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QQQ Long Signals and Targets for the week of Dec 23, 2024Analysis: QQQ Signals Detected
My analysis identified the following key long signals and targets for this week (Dec 24, 2024) and next:
Target 1: > 527.29, Status: Reached.
Target 2: > 531.74
Target 3: > 541.89
With the first target achieved, we are now monitoring progress towards the remaining targets.
Trading Plan:
Risk Management: Avoid excessive greed.
Profit Taking: Partially close positions upon reaching each subsequent target, unless there are further updates.
This strategy allows for securing profits while maintaining exposure for potential further upside.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
Three white soldiers on QQQ and SPY?After the market's strong reaction to the Fed's rather hawkish outlook, we see three consecutive days of rising prices in the QQQ and SPY. This creates a chart pattern that can be described as Three White Soldiers (the opposite of Three Black Crows). Even if the chart pattern is not perfectly clean, it can still indicate a strong uptrend for the beginning of 2025. Cheers!
Some loading points you might be interested inThe red lines are from the monthly that show QQQ in a tight channel since 1/23.
The white lines show some recent support and resistance levels.
It broke resistance on the second attempt and resistance has now become support. I think $517 is a crucial level and will probably be revisited seeing how overbought my indicators show. It's 50% of wave 3 and I think a good loading level (plus a gap close) with the previous resistance level serving as a stop loss and short entry. If I'm correct I am expecting a 15 point gain from $517 in approximately 3 weeks (give or take a few trading days). Let me know how you see it, would love added perspectives
QQQ to $600 part 3 and final video (it's been a pleasure)Last week was amazing and I hope more of the same this week coming up.
Key levels to long $525 with your preference of stop loss.
Key levels to short $511 with your preference of stop loss.
QQQ: Expecting Bullish Movement! Here is Why:
The price of QQQ will most likely increase soon enough, due to the demand beginning to exceed supply which we can see by looking at the chart of the pair.
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QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF) – Breaking Down in the Future📉 Overview:
QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq-100, is showing signs of exhaustion at the $535.55 resistance zone. A corrective pullback is anticipated as the ETF completes its 5th wave, aligning with overbought conditions and broader macroeconomic headwinds.
📊 Technical Analysis:
Resistance Zone:
- Key Levels: $527.78–$535.55 (88% Fibonacci retracement).
This zone has capped recent bullish attempts, with a potential reversal into a bearish wave structure.
Elliott Wave Count:
- Wave 5: Likely complete, with a corrective wave (A-B-C) unfolding.
A break below the support trendline could signal the start of a more significant decline.
Targets:
- Target 1: $515.55 – Near-term pullback zone aligned with Fibonacci confluences.
- Target 2: $498.58 – Corresponds with the 1.0 Fibonacci extension of the corrective wave.
- Extended Target: $480.28 – Major support zone and 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
- Stop-Loss: Placed above $535.55 to avoid false breakout risks.
🌐 Macro Analysis:
Tech Sector Challenges:
- Rising interest rates are a headwind for growth-oriented sectors like technology, which dominate QQQ.
- Valuations appear stretched, leaving little room for error as earnings season approaches.
Economic Data:
Market sentiment is fragile amid concerns over slowing economic growth and potential Fed tightening in early 2025.
Nasdaq-100 Dependency:
Heavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech stocks makes QQQ vulnerable to concentrated risks.
⚡ Trade Plan:
- Short Entry Zone: $527.78–$535.55.
Risk-Reward Setup:
- Stop-Loss: $535.55.
- Target 1: $515.55 (RR ~ 2:1).
- Target 2: $498.58 (RR ~ 4:1).
- Extended Target: $480.28.
🔍 Considerations:
Look out for Nasdaq-100 earnings reports, which could act as a catalyst for volatility. Monitor economic releases, such as inflation and jobs data, which could shift sentiment.
Is QQQ poised for a reversal, or could the bulls defy the odds? Share your thoughts in the comments! 🚨📉
Market Update - 12/22/2024• still only 14% invested, the week was quite bad, most stocks sold off
• however, some stocks, especially space names, tech and retail are holding up very well
• given we are quite oversold short term and we could get an aggressive rebound next week, these stocks might be good breakout candidates
• will still stay small in terms of position sizing (5% max) until we get more traction
Interesting trend line confluence on QQQ: Bull CaseNobody knows what is going to happen, but this confluence of trend lines is at least interesting.
There is a short term uptrend since the August low that converged pretty perfectly with a longer term trend line that seems to have had some weight as resistance since summer of 2023. It has been broken at times, but price has always come back in and has spent a lot of time respecting it.
This month we broke above it again and then on Friday we opened below both lines, only to rally back up and close above them.
There is also a resistance line that along with the short term support line can be seen as a rising wedge that was broken on December 4th. This latest drop took us down through the front of that wedge but on Friday we closed back above it.
Now the market of course does not have to follow any of these lines, but I thought the confluence was interesting. Could this all just be a retest of the wedge we just broke out of to the upside? Could the longer term resistance line finally be flipping to support? In that case, we could be at the beginning of a much bigger upside move.
To be clear, I do also see credible downside possibilities, but there is some confluence and some strength worth noting here.
QQQ Trade AnalysisThis chart represents the daily timeframe for QQQ, showcasing a mix of technical indicators like pivot points (S1, S2, R1, etc.), exponential moving averages (EMAs), trendlines, dark pool levels, and volume. The chart indicates a recent pullback in a long-term uptrend, with price sitting near a key support zone.
Key Observations:
1. Trend Analysis:
Long-Term Trend:
The green ascending trendline suggests a consistent long-term bullish trend.
The price is still well above this trendline, indicating the broader trend remains intact.
Recent Pullback:
Price recently tested the R2 pivot (534.52), indicating an overbought condition, and has since pulled back.
It is now consolidating near the S1 pivot (490.80) and the 21 EMA, which are critical short-term support levels.
2. Support and Resistance:
Resistance Levels:
R1 (522.13) and R2 (534.52) are the immediate resistance zones. Price rejection at these levels confirms sellers’ presence.
R3 (553.45) is the long-term target if the bullish trend resumes.
Support Levels:
S1 (490.80): Current support level and pivot zone.
S2 (471.87): A deeper support zone near the green trendline, likely to act as a strong barrier.
Dark Pool Levels:
508.70 (recent activity) may serve as minor resistance.
496.39 and 480.70 indicate institutional interest zones that could provide support.
3. Volume Analysis:
Recent volume spike on the pullback indicates increased participation, potentially signaling a shift in momentum.
Red candles with high volume often signal distribution, but if price stabilizes near support, this could indicate accumulation by institutions.
4. Moving Averages:
Price has fallen below the 8 EMA, signaling short-term bearish momentum.
However, the 21 EMA near 490.80 acts as a critical level. A rebound from this area could indicate a resumption of the uptrend.
Trade Setup:
Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal from S1 (490.80)
Trigger: A bounce off the S1 pivot and reclaim of the 8 EMA (~508.70) would signal a bullish continuation.
Profit Targets:
508.70: Dark pool resistance and 8 EMA level.
522.13 (R1): Swing high and key resistance zone.
534.52 (R2): Longer-term resistance.
Stop-Loss: Below 486, as a break below this level would invalidate the bullish thesis.
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Below S1 (490.80)
Trigger: A strong close below the S1 pivot with increasing volume would confirm bearish momentum.
Profit Targets:
480.70: Dark pool support.
471.87 (S2): Pivot support and intersection with the green trendline.
459.48 (S3): Deeper downside target.
Stop-Loss: Above 500, as this would indicate a reversal back above key support.
Scenario 3: Long-Term Reversal Near Trendline Support
If price continues lower, the green trendline near 471.87 offers a high-probability buying opportunity, especially if accompanied by lower volume on the decline.
Final Thoughts:
Short-Term Outlook: Consolidation near S1 (490.80) requires confirmation of direction. A breakout above the 8 EMA would favor bulls, while a breakdown below S1 opens the door for further downside.
Long-Term Outlook: The green trendline and dark pool levels suggest strong institutional support on deeper pullbacks, keeping the broader bullish trend intact.
Doubt Me If You Want, But My Strategy Speaks for Itself!NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY
Do you see how my Williams CB is one of the best strategies out there for predicting markets short & long term moves? How coupled with my H5 trading strategy it gives me the best chances to beat these crazy markets.
Two weeks ago we were at the top and called for a no more than 3% market pullback. I was wrong and right at the same time. We got a pullback but it wasn't what I anticipated but who anticipated the FED nuking the markets yesterday? Nobody but the FED.
I show you this so you understand when we get to the barrier we don't know what it's going to be that pulls the market back or causes us to consolidate and peel off the red barrier. BUT, we need to understand where we are at and that running into the barrier is not the time to be adding to trades or exploring new ones. It's the time to take profits, consolidate, and maybe hedge a little.
I'm not putting this out to be applauded or to act like I'm some type of Oracle. I simply want to show all my friends who have decided to stick it out with me the last few days when others chose to leave that you can entrust in my strategies and I will teach you everything I know so you can beat the markets on a consistent basis too!
QQQ Bearish Engulfing Candle on Weekly TimeframeAccording to our models QQQ will keep correcting for another 3-4 Weeks and approximate correction would be 8%
Entry Short: 524
Exit Short: ~ 480
All the best.
Marketpanda
Disclaimer: The information provided is for general informational and educational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. None of the content shared should be relied upon as the sole basis for making investment decisions. Prior to making any financial or investment decisions, it is strongly recommended that you consult with a qualified financial advisor, accountant, or other professional who is familiar with your individual circumstances and risk tolerance. Any reliance you place on the information presented is strictly at your own risk, and we are not responsible for any losses, damages, or liabilities resulting from your investment or trading activities.
THIS IS A FAKE OUT IMO! BUY THE DIPNASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM
THIS IS A FAKE OUT! BUY THE DIP 👇
-Strong Economic Fundamentals
-Hawkish FED spreading FUD
-Same Government shutdown scares every year
-2T+ in options (mostly call) expiring today
-Gains being pressured to be sold for 24 taxes
-Scare meme coin & gambler bro's out the markets
-Incoming party is for business & the stock market
-VIX spiked faster than Japanese trade crisis
-Inflation still coming down
-AI is still strong and a catalyst
-Company earnings are still hefty
-Global markets are curling up not down
All of these reasons explain my point of this being a FAKE OUT. I will be buying this DIP because I see nothing CONCRETE! All I see is that the market maker and FED Chair Powell teamed up to be the GRINCH & SCROOGE this Holiday season. Not financial advice.
QQQ correction end 2024 - more strong than SPYAs we can see, there has been a correction since the presentation of the FOMC meeting, with a break in the bullish structure we had in the indices. QQQ broke bullish structures in 2-hour timeframes, but for now, it shows a more bullish movement than SPY. We should recover the 4-hour channel to maintain an upward movement in the 4-hour and daily timeframes.
Como podemos ver tenemos una correccion desde la presentacion de la reunion de la FOMC, con una ruptura de las estructura alcista que teniamos en los indices, QQQ rompio estructuras alcista en temporalidades de 2horas, pero por el momento tenemos un movimiento mas alcista que el SPY y deberiamos recuperar el canal de 4HS para mantener un movimento alcista en la temporalidad de 4hs y diaria.
Tech Is Ded...So is TA...Muh crystal ball skills are in full display here...everything is too good currently how can markets go down with head honcho Donald duck I mean Trump as POTUS...well that's exactly the point it actually don't matter and it never did lol, bottom shorters from years back are now expert bulls and frothing at the mouth speculating with the can't lose mentality...so what comes next should be quite obvious/natural...the illusion of safety has spread like covid amongst the herd and the only jab that will fix it is a swift uppercut to their accounts (losses). Everything that I visioned playing out 2 or so years ago has come true and it's now time to change sides as I believe there aint much juice left in the tank for bulls, RUT making new highs and dying was one very good top indicator for larger index's as the end is usually marked by a speculative frenzy in smaller stocks popping 20% or so daily which has happened now, I'm expecting mining stocks to have a really good 6-12months from here providing markets do indeed fall for 2 or so years as miners tend to lag a top for about that time.
Gl Swoop out.
QQQ Sell to $497-501 Weekly Resistance for Buying opportunity A 52 week high was made on Monday, December 16 at $539 on QQQ . The fed Powell released the news he’s cutting rates by a quarter of a percent which caused the market to plummet ,Banks also manipulating the market to get into these buying opportunities. We are currently failing to break above 520 , also struggling to fully break below 515 . We will continue to sell down once we pass 515 . Looking at my chart on the weekly timeframe appears is 501-497 is the actual resistance that we are heading to now. It may look like 515 is the resistance, but in all actuality, it does not appear to be a Stronger demand zone than 500 to 497. Once we get here, look for buying opportunities at the new year will bring in New yearly, highs, and new yearly lows. For now, we should be in puts to $500.
QQQ - Correction Underway After Recent HighsThe QQQ is currently undergoing a corrective move after reaching a recent high of around 540 USD. The price has retraced sharply from this level, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment as sellers begin to dominate.
Key Levels
Support Zones: Immediate support can be seen around 519 USD, with more significant zones near 500 and 480 USD, which aligns with previous price consolidation.
Market Structure
After a strong upward move, the price has entered a consolidation phase, with lower highs indicating the start of a pullback. Sellers have gained control, as evidenced by the recent price action.
Volume
The CVD is deeply negative, highlighting strong selling pressure in the current market phase. This suggests that while price holds near key support, bearish momentum remains high, and we may see further downside if these levels don't hold.
Outlook
Watch for price action around the current support. If this level breaks convincingly (what has to be expected, regarding the highly negative momentum), we could see a deeper retracement toward 500 USD. On the other hand, a strong bounce from current levels, might signal a resumption of the bullish trend.
The two different pathways show the most likely outlooks:
The green path shows the best bullish case, while the blue path seems to have a higher likelihood, but therefore offers a better RRR for future long positions.
QQQ Crash Technical Analysis (TA) for Dec. 19Market Overview
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) experienced a significant market drop today, reflecting a bearish sentiment in technology-heavy indices. The broader sell-off has pushed QQQ down to critical technical levels, where a combination of support zones and gamma exposure levels could offer insights for the next trading sessions.
Market Structure Analysis
* Daily Chart: QQQ broke below its recent upward channel support at $525, with today's close significantly below the 9-EMA and 21-EMA, signaling bearish momentum.
* Hourly Chart: A sharp sell-off occurred during today's session, with a brief recovery toward $517. However, the current volume profile indicates strong selling pressure near the $525 resistance.
Supply and Demand Zones
* Immediate Resistance Zones:
* $525.60: Prior support turned resistance, aligning with the gamma exposure wall and heavy put wall.
* $533.14: Additional resistance, coinciding with the upper range of today’s intraday high.
* Support Zones:
* $515: Intraday low support aligning with the highest negative gamma exposure (NETGEX) level.
* $507 and $505: Key demand zones visible from previous consolidations and gamma support.
Order Blocks and Key Levels
* Bearish Order Block: $525 to $533 range has seen consistent selling pressure, forming a robust resistance.
* Bullish Rejection Level: $512-$515 acts as a psychological support zone.
Key Indicators
* MACD: The MACD on both daily and hourly charts has crossed bearishly, with increasing momentum to the downside.
* RSI: Hourly RSI has entered oversold territory (~30), indicating a possible short-term bounce.
* EMAs (9 & 21): The price remains significantly below both EMAs on all timeframes, confirming the bearish bias.
Gamma Exposure (GEX) and Options Activity
* Put Wall: The $519 level represents the highest concentration of puts, acting as immediate resistance.
* Gamma Exposure (GEX):
* Negative GEX levels between $515 and $520 amplify downward pressure.
* Above $525, calls dominate, potentially limiting further upside.
Scalping vs. Swing Outlook
* Scalping Strategy:
* Look for short entries near $525 with tight stop losses above $526.
* Potential target zones: $517, $515, and $512.
* Swing Strategy:
* Wait for confirmation of a close above $525 to consider bullish recovery.
* Downside swing target: $505 if $512 support breaks.
Actionable Suggestions
1. Short Setup:
* Entry: Near $525.
* Stop-Loss: Above $526.
* Target: $515, $507.
2. Bullish Setup:
* Entry: On confirmation above $525.
* Stop-Loss: Below $520.
* Target: $533.
Conclusion
QQQ is in a precarious technical position, reflecting broader market weakness. A further break below $512 could accelerate the downtrend, while a reclaim of $525 could initiate a short-term recovery.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly before making trading decisions.
12/3/24 - $qqq - quick comment on "risk"- by now it should be obvious that this isn't "normal" (hasn't been for over a decade, but esp in the last year). M2 turned positive and risk assets followed especially as labor mkt data started "allowing" fed to cut
- but remember, inflation gauges are heading higher. oil probably only has one direction (energy is a big driver) and consumers are ape'ing on basically everything w/ credit card debt exploding higher. amazing!
- what concerns me, though is this next fed mtg...
1/ any "cuts" won't really move the needle in terms of truly looser monetary policy
2/ mkts are already at nosebleed highs (let's just use PE e.g. 2-3% vs. 10Y rates)
3/ any indication that the fed is going to not keep with the current programming (b/c let's face it - they're certainly - well who really knows but the dark forces from h3ll - going to accelerate the print bc it's not necessary, look at the mkts!)... which means the only possible direction is possibly more restrictive
4/ now we ARE in year end. there are technically no -ve catalysts on the horizon so to speak, and the mkts need a reason to go down, not up. so the direction holds. i'm happy holding a big allo of BTC, NXT, TSM, META and NVDA and some select other stuff in that order. it's working well and i genuinely think the valuations for these are (ironically) decent
5/ but beware. that if the mkt starts to get the picture of what i'm spelling out above... it won't be next week where you get a pullback (i'm not calling for something extreme, but 5-10% will cause tears for a lot of leveraged low IQ types and zero them quickly)... but i'm prepared with a healthy cash balance, a bunch of shorts (today it's PLTR in size, SG which i've been monetizing a bit, NN, SMR also monetizing a bit and some B2B stuff that just got too expensive like TEAM which i actually like but i digress).
just good to be aware of where we're at. try typing in "QQQ/M2" into trading view and look at monthly or 3M candles. note anything interesting? it's best to normalize by money supply one way or another. when and where did we last reach these levels ;)
stay vigilant and don't drink too much. the party continues but it's good to remember the exit than be woken up with some unfortunate pictures of your PnL. could have, should have.
V
[GEX] levels for QQQFirst, let’s examine what we see on our chart using options indicators:
Summarizing the GEX levels through December 26, we have a strong call wall at around 540. If price can break above and hold that level, it could easily pave the way toward 550. However, if we’re expecting a Christmas selloff after Friday’s close, this bearish assumption might prove worthwhile.
This brings up a point that often comes up:
“How do I interpret whether the optoins indicator is bullish or bearish?”
There’s no such definitive signal! The levels and options metrics show certain conditions, but no one can tell you exactly what will happen next. This is where you need to have a directional hypothesis. Once you have it, the indicators can help you fine-tune your positioning, identify realistic targets, and select viable legs—but they won’t decide your directional stance for you.
For example, while everything may look bullish, let’s say you have a contrarian bearish view. Then you can see where it makes sense to position yourself.
Test Case Chosen:
8x QQQ Dec 24th – Dec 26th 525 Calendar Put Spread
Max Loss: $216
Max Profit: $1,685
PoP: 45%
Why not?
