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INVESCO QQQ TRUST

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The Bear Market Has Arrived - Key Levels to Watch SPY QQQ IWMIWM is the first of the major averages to enter into a technical bear market after falling over 20% from its recent highs. QQQ will likely be next followed by SPY. I think there's good potential for a short term bounce around this area, but I believe there's a lot more trouble ahead in the medium to long term and it could accelerate quickly if we don't see any quick relief here. Time to buckle up, I'm afraid the worst is yet to come.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by AdvancedPlays
QQQ - Double Top BreakdownQQQ has formed a double top, a classic bearish reversal pattern indicating potential trend exhaustion. The price has broken below the neckline, confirming the pattern and signaling further downside. If selling pressure continues, we could see a move toward the target zone. This breakdown suggests that bulls are losing momentum, and unless QQQ can reclaim the neckline, the bearish bias remains intact. However, false breakdowns can occur, so it's important to watch for a potential retest of the neckline before further downside. 📊 Key Levels: 🔵 Entry: Breakdown confirmation below support 🔴 Stop Loss: 524.65 🔻 (Invalidation level if price reclaims this zone) 🟢 Target: 458.59 ✅ (Measured move from the pattern) 🔎 Watch for: 📌 A retest of the neckline as resistance 📌 Increased volume confirming the breakdown 📌 Possible continuation if sellers remain in control This setup presents a strong risk-to-reward opportunity for bears, but staying cautious of any reversals is key.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by pliesfargo
3
QQQ Slammed Below $465! Gamma Flip Confirmed QQQ Slammed Below $465! Gamma Flip Confirmed as Tariff Panic Grips Tech Sector 🌐 Macro Context (April 2, 2025) Trump’s new tariff announcement this morning ignited fear of inflation returning and disrupted global trade expectations. That spooked big tech and growth-heavy indices like QQQ, triggering gamma-driven liquidation and a sharp intraday breakdown. * Traders and dealers were not positioned for this headline — the rapid IV expansion and negative delta hedging caused a cascading sell-off. * From a GEX perspective, today’s action triggered a flip below HVL ($471), with gamma accelerating downside volatility. 📉 Technical Breakdown – 1H Chart Price Action: * QQQ attempted to push through $475–$480, but got rejected violently. * The huge red candle that nuked through $471 HVL and $469 confirmed a break of structure and bearish imbalance. Support Zones: * $455 – being tested now; psychological and options-related level * $453.86 – today’s session low * $450–$447 – likely short-term gamma target if weakness persists Resistance Levels: * $465 – 3rd PUT Wall * $471 – HVL (now major resistance) * $474–$477 – stacked CALL walls and former support 🔻 Options GEX & Dealer Positioning GEX Flow: * 🔴🔴🔵 = Short Gamma territory, and it’s growing more negative. * Highest GEX support has disintegrated, with dealers hedging by shorting into the drop. * Net GEX flipped negative below $471, increasing volatility. * Dealer gamma continues to point down, with no major PUT walls until $450 zone. Options Sentiment: * IVR 38.4 / IVx avg 35.6 – slightly elevated vol, but with more room to rise * PUTs 55.5% – bearish lean confirmed * Expiry in 2 days + tariff panic = likely continuation or high chop volatility tomorrow 📌 Trade Setups 🐻 Bearish Continuation (Preferred Bias) * Entry: Below $453.50 * Target: $450 → $447 * Stop: Above $458 reclaim * Contract Idea: 0DTE or 2DTE $455P/$450P depending on risk appetite * Note: Gamma trap zone from $455–$450 likely to accelerate price movement 🐂 Dead Cat Bounce Setup (Low Conviction) * Only valid if QQQ reclaims $465+ with volume + positive options flow * Target: $471–$474 * Play with small size or debit spreads due to risk of gamma reversal 🔍 Conclusion + My Thoughts This tariff-triggered crash was unexpected, and it created a dealer short-gamma loop in QQQ. The break below $471 HVL turned the table fast. Unless QQQ quickly reclaims $465+, we're likely heading to test $450 levels in the coming sessions. Tech tends to react aggressively to macro policy shifts, and the lack of near-term options support shows dealers are NOT stepping in. That opens the door for continued downside or extremely choppy relief rallies. Be fast. Be nimble. 🎯 Key Levels Recap: 🔴 HVL $471 Former support → resistance 🔻 Support $455 / $453.86 Price and psychological 🚨 GEX Target $450 / $447 Dealer hedging likely 🔼 Resistance $465–$471 Gamma ceiling now 📢 Final Tip: Watch VIX, bond yields, and /NQ overnight — any panic escalation may turn this into a larger gamma-driven flush. Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always manage your risk and position sizing accordingly.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
QQQ is Breaking the Trendline – Could the Tech Rally be started?Market Structure & Price Action: QQQ has broken out of a descending channel and printed a CHoCH to the upside around $471, shifting structure into a bullish stance. The breakout follows a clean reversal from the red demand zone near $463, suggesting institutional interest around that area. Price is now consolidating near $473.5–$474 after a strong 3-bar rally and retest of prior highs. Supply & Demand Zones: * Demand Zone (Support): $463–$465 * Supply Zone (Resistance): $495–$497 (unmitigated upper green zone) Support & Resistance Levels: * Immediate Resistance: $474 (minor psychological level, aligning with trendline retest zone) * Major Resistance: $495–$497 (overhead supply) * Support Levels: $470 > $465 > $463 Indicators: * MACD: Still bullish, but showing some slowing momentum – histogram flattening. * Stoch RSI: In overbought territory – may suggest short-term consolidation or pullback. * Volume: Rising on the breakout, confirming strength. Options GEX + Sentiment Analysis: * Gamma Walls: * CALL Wall (Resistant): $472 (64.62%) – Price is currently sitting above this wall. * Next Gamma Cluster: $474–$476 (GEX9/GEX10) – Potential short-term magnet. * PUT Wall Support: * $465–$463 zone aligning with strong GEX put support and HVL (0DTE) – strong defense. * IV Rank (IVR): 40.6 * Implied Volatility vs Average (IVx avg): IV is above avg at 3.27% * Sentiment: PUTS 52.6% | GEX shows 🟢🟢🟢🟡 (Bullish leaning but hedged) Trade Scenarios: * Bullish Scenario: * If QQQ holds above $472 and sustains above the GEX CALL Wall, we may see a move toward $476–$480. * A breakout above $480 could open the door for a test of the $495–$497 upper supply zone. * Bearish Scenario: * Rejection at $474 and failure to hold $470 could push price back toward the $465–$463 demand zone. * Breakdown below $463 would invalidate the bullish thesis in the short term. Conclusion: QQQ is showing strength after breaking the descending structure, and options positioning supports a slow grind higher unless it gets rejected at $474. Watch for consolidation or a clean breakout to confirm momentum continuation. Bulls want to defend $470 on any pullback.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
3/31/25 - $qqq - Correlation 1... no more protection 4 me3/31/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QQQ Correlation 1... no more protection 4 me - bought back all my (covered calls) on the "rental" book, which is NYSE:VST , NYSE:UBER , NYSE:DECK , NASDAQ:BLDE , NASDAQ:GAMB as i'd rather take the 15-20% downside on what I believe are stocks that have at least 2x this in terms of upside into YE at this pt. esp in a quarter-end tape that simply looks "scared" - and i hear you guys that r saying "Bessent" told you more pain to come and "yes", but we shouldn't be believing anyone at this stage, friends. Think critically. here are some pts: - on my S&P math, the average stock is now down 20% from it's peak. i've writtent extensively about VIX mgmt and mag7 as a component of this equation. we've seen diff sectors, stocks and most importantly mag7 rotate seats (from cold to hot) at varying points in order to smooth the index. therefore, the index is the illusion here. "only an 8% correction" is meaningful in the above context. - i've reviewed all 500 of the S&P stocks in the last month, and on my thinking, about 80% of them are pretty obvious buys from a MT (nevermind LT context), let's describe MT as 12-18 months. that's not to say there isn't more downside, but buying the index at this pt (to low-IQ and chill) means you'll probably enter pretty well here - and the narrative/ thinking around AI is probably correct that "a lot of things are going to get demonetized especially software". but the mkt is currently confusing a few things. when we are correlation 1... the market says "all AI-related plays are losers" and that's objectively false. perhaps there will be more losers than winners, because this game of scale is one we haven't seen before. but when you're, say, selling something like NVDA that can't even meet it's chip demand for the next 2 years, trading at 4% FCF yield and growing >20% a year (probably 30-40% CAGR on my conservative math) versus a 10Y being forced lower and you tack on reinvestment risk to trying to "time" the NVDA bottom (which is *probably* at most 15-20% lower)... i'd contend - you're doing it wrong - or you think you're god. nobody times the bottom. we risk manage upside and downside risks with the book. - so acknowledging tariffs matter, rates matter, short term speech drives emotion. take a step back. i'd argue we're much closer to the bottom than the MSM will let on, as they're index-only thinkers. - what i'm really looking for is an open below lows (like we had today) and a massive red to green reversal. those have marked all major bottoms. again. we might have a few of these b/c we are in a whacky tape, but that sort of move should be taken into account. - one more point. seeing my favorite position NASDAQ:NXT dump nearly 6% at the open on "flows" and get rebid basically non-stop until i'm currently writing this... tells me most of what you're seeing is quarter-end balancers, so don't lose the signal through the noise. - i bought more OTC:OBTC today to top off too, even tho volume light (i'm probably 100% of that volume today already). limits only on this thing. - most importantly keep your head screwed on. last man standing without getting emotional wins, always. been here, done this. it never gets easier. but you learn to control your emotions. so take a step back. if you're sweating, take some exposure off, you're too big. but if you've made it this far, don't give up. assets > liabilities in this world. and the USD is ultimately a liability. never forget that. the goal isn't to accumulate dollars, but assets. V
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by VROCKSTAR
Possible Similarities to 2022 Bear Market QQQ Weekly Chart. Very similar structure and price action to the run up and subsequent bear market of 2022. Plan is to sell into strength and possibly look for longs off deep support levels. If this scenario unfolds it will require adaptability and will present difficult trading scenarios that will punish hesitation and chasing. Great opportunities for long term investors off deep support levels such as 200 SMA on higher timeframes. A pull back to 450 would be the first target and the 21 EMA on the Monthly chart and the 89 EMA on the Weekly. Look for possible put options 7-21 DTE.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by NotesOfaTrader
1
QQQ Will Explode! BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the QQQ next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 468.97 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 488.44 My Stop Loss - 457.91 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by AnabelSignals
2
Foundation of Technical Trading: What Makes a Chart Tradable?The Foundation of Technical Trading There is an abundance of information on price charts, technical methods, indicators, and various tools. However, the required first step is to understand basic market structure. Without this foundational knowledge, technical applications risk becoming inconsistent and disconnected from broader market behavior. It is also important to question whether technical charts and tools are effective at all. What makes the market responsive to a trendline, a pattern, or an indicator? And why, at other times, do these tools seem entirely irrelevant? Is the market random? If certain events are predictable, under what conditions can such occurrences be expected? Experiment: Random Charts Here is an illustration of four charts; two showing real price data and two randomly generated. While some visual distortion gives away subtle differences, there are more refined methods to construct this experiment that makes telling the difference between real and random almost impossible. All these charts show viable patterns and possible applications. When presented with these, even experienced people tend to construct narratives, whether or not structure is present. This raises a fundamental question; how can one distinguish real occurrences from coincidental formations on a chart? In case all movements are considered random, then this should indicate that applied methods perform no better than coincidence? Bias and Distortion It’s also important to comprehend the influence our perception. As humans we are wired to find patterns, even in random data, which can lead to various cognitive biases that distort our interpretation. For example, confirmation bias may lead us to focus only on evidence that supports our expectations, while apophenia causes us to see patterns where none exist. Similarly, hindsight bias can trick us into believing past patterns were obvious, which can develop overconfidence in future decisions. Awareness of these biases allows us to approach technical tools and charts with greater objectivity, with more focus on probabilistic methods and calculated risks. Experiment: Random Levels Perform the following experiment; open a chart and hide the price data. Then draw a few horizontal lines at random levels. Then reveal the price again. You’ll notice that price can touch or reverse near these lines, as if they were relevant levels. The same thing can happen with various indicators and tools. This experiment shows how easy it is to find confluence by chance. It also raises an important question, is your equipment and approach to the markets more reliable than random? Market Disorder Financial markets consist of various participants including banks, funds, traders and algorithmic systems. These participants operate with different objectives and across multiple timeframes resulting in a wide range of interpretations of market behavior. Trades are executed for various reasons such as speculation, hedging, rebalancing, liquidation or automation; directional intent could be unclear. For instance, the prior may serve to offset exposure, and portfolio rebalancing could require the execution of large orders without directional intent. Technical and chart-based trading likely makes up a minor segment of the overall market; even within this subset, there is considerable variation in perception and interpretation. There could be differences in timeframe, reference points, pattern relevance and responses to similar information. The market is broader, more complex and less definitive than it appears. The point is that markets contain a high degree of structural disorder, which means most assumptions should be questioned and perceived as estimative. The effect of buying and selling pressure on multiple timeframes sets the foundation for oscillation in price movements, rather than linear and monotonic movements. This pattern of rising and falling in a series of waves sets the points for where the current structure transitions between balance and imbalance. An overall equilibrium between buying and selling pressure results in consolidative price movement, whereas dominance leads to trending or progressive movement. Volatility Distribution To answer the main question: What differentiates real market behavior and charts from random data, and ultimately makes it tradable, is the distribution of volatility. This forms the basis for the phenomenon of volatility clustering, where periods of high volatility tend to follow high volatility, and low volatility follows low volatility. It is rare for the market to shift into a volatile state and then immediately revert to inactivity without some degree of persistence. Research supports the presence of this volatility persistence, though with the important caveat that it does not imply directional intent. Volatility Cycles These phases tend to occur in alternation, known as volatility cycles, which set the foundation for tradable price structures. This sequence consists of a contractive phase, marked by compression in price movements, followed by an expansive phase, characterized by increased volatility and directional movement. The alternation reflects shifts in underlying buying and selling pressure. This behavior offers a practical approach to interpret market behavior. A more detailed explanation of the concept could be explored in a future post. Conclusion While the idea of profitability through technical trading is often questioned, it remains a viable approach when based on sound principles. The edges available to the average trader are smaller and less frequent than commonly presumed. The concepts of volatility and the ability to locate areas of imbalance forms the basis for identifying conditions where market behavior becomes less random and more structured. This sets the foundation for developing technical edges. The content in this post is adapted from the book The Art of Technical Trading for educational purposes.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by StockLeave
QQQ Crashes to Demand Zone! Market on Edge After Tariff Shock🔻 Market Context
The Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) took a severe hit after Trump’s proposed tariffs rattled the broader market. Investors fled risk-on assets, dragging tech-heavy indexes into a sharp sell-off. This capitulation-type flush aligns with the "risk-off" tone the options market has hinted at for days. Technical Analysis (1H + SMC)
QQQ broke structure decisively (BOS) and formed a bearish flag within a descending channel. Current price is hovering near the $420 support—this level acted as a major BOS zone, and we’re now testing it again from above. The Smart Money Concepts (SMC) show multiple CHOCHs failing to reclaim higher liquidity zones around $475–$480, marking this area as a strong distribution zone. MACD and Stoch RSI are near oversold levels, showing momentum exhaustion, but no clear bullish divergence yet. A small consolidation box is forming just above the demand zone. If this zone holds, a short-term relief bounce to retest $440–$448 could be in play. However, a breakdown below $419 would trigger further downside into the $405–$400 region. GEX-Based Options Sentiment (1H) * Highest Negative NET GEX / PUT Support is currently at $420, aligning perfectly with our price action floor. * GEX10 at $434 and GEX9 at $440–443 form resistance blocks for any short-term bounce. * The HVL at $475 (04/07 expiration) remains a major gamma magnet only if bulls reclaim $450+ levels. From a flow standpoint: * IVR: 101.8 – Options are relatively expensive. * IVx Avg: 56.7% – Increasing volatility confirms fear. * PUT$: 23.5% dominance – Bearish pressure is heavy. * GEX is deep in the bearish zone, with multiple red markers suggesting downside continuation risk is still high. Scenarios to Watch Bullish Scenario * Price holds $420 and forms a higher low. * Breakout above $440 opens door to $457 → $475 zone. * Risk-on confirmation if we reclaim $457 with strong volume. Bearish Scenario * Breakdown below $420 = major flush trigger. * Price could cascade to $405–$400 near previous fair value gaps. * Put support levels are likely to absorb some of the sell-off, but sentiment is fragile. Final Thoughts
This is a high-volatility week. Institutions are hedging heavily. Don’t fight the trend—watch for clear reclaim above $440 to go long. Otherwise, trade level to level and protect your capital. QQQ is not yet safe for investment—wait for reclaim above $457 and improving options sentiment before considering entries. For traders, short-term scalps off $420 with tight risk management are in play, but be prepared for violent swings. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
QQQ: Tariff ReactionNASDAQ:QQQ As China strikes back with a 34% tariff on U.S. goods starting April 10, the global trade landscape could see some serious turbulence. This follows Trump's tariff moves, and the market's already feeling it: QQQ’s daily chart shows capitulation volume on the table, suggesting a potential bounce— IF tariffs ease. But until these trade tensions subside, it's likely to be a rocky ride. Tariffs push prices up, inflation lingers, and the Fed finds itself boxed in. The outcome? A market crash, recession, and stagflation—yet, there's still hope for a bounce, depending on how these factors play out. Manage the levels with us at ChartsCoach.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by KobesyTrades