QQQ looks to break into bullish territoryQQQ again breaks out above the longer resistance line to test new more bullish grounds
For the second day in a row QQQ breaks above the long term downward resistance line
This breakout is accompanied with increased volume over yesterday while trading in the higher zone
RSI breaks above SMA during this time
RSI's SMA been flat to trending slightly updward
The bulls are looking to be taking over in the near future showing further weakness in this sell off.
QQQ trade ideas
QQQ shows a reversal is nearQQQ experienced a number of turning points showing increased weakness in the sell off we have been seeing over the past week.
False breakout to the upside
Strong growth in volume confirming the breakout direction
Hammer candle on close indicating reversal maybe coming after later day retracement
RSI breaks above SMA line for first time
This change in direction we have seen today with a new interest from the bulls shows that ever selling we experience going forward will likely be tested by the bulls again.
For trend traders I would recommend sitting on the side lines until we see a stronger trend form either to the up or down side. This current down trend is showing weakness.
How I used Volume Spread Analysis to avoid FOMO trading!As a trader, I often battle with the fear of missing out (FOMO), a common pitfall among traders that can lead to impulsive, unprofitable trades. After reviewing my journal, I determined that chasing breakouts was costing me a significant portion of my account, so I studied Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) to help me reduce my urges. Here is how is used VSA to avoid FOMOing a trade.
Before we get started, let's clarify two definitions:
Volume: Measures the number of times buyers and sellers exchange 1 unit of an asset at an agreed-upon price. It doesn't inherently indicate whether a trend is bullish or bearish, but rather that a trade has occurred. Low volume suggests that few transactions have taken place because buyers and sellers couldn't agree on price. High volume suggests that buyers OR sellers felt they were getting a bargain at the current price, leading to many transactions.
Spread/Range: The difference between the high and low of a candlestick. A narrow spread indicates little variance between what someone is willing to buy for and what someone is willing to sell for. A wide spread suggests that buyers and sellers have significantly different ideas of what the fair price is.
In short, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) interprets the relationship between trading volume and candle spread. When volume and spread agree, they are considered harmonious, and the trend will probably continue. If volume and spread disagree, there is a divergence, and the trend may be weak or could even reverse. In general, there are three main harmonious conditions:
Narrowing spread should have narrowing volume.
Average spread should have average volume.
Widening spread should have widening volume.
I spotted a bear flag consolidation on QQQ and decided I would trade the breakout to the downside. I took a break and came back to the chart just after the breakdown had occurred, missing my ideal entry. The candle spread was widening and my first thought was "I have to get in! This thing is free falling!" PAUSE! I reminded myself that I cant make every dollar in the market. If I miss this trade, there will always be another. "Be patient and wait for the market to come back to you."
This is the chart after the initial break. What can we observe? QQQ broke the low of day with high volume and a widening red candle. Based on our definitions from earlier, we know that high volume means that buyers or sellers think they are getting a bargain so they are willing to transact as much as they can at current price. Given that price is falling, we can assume that the volume is due to aggressive selling. We remain patient and continue to watch for something to trade against.
Next, we see a narrower range candle with a long lower shadow and above average volume. By definition, strong volume with a narrow range is a possible divergence. We know that narrow range candles mean that buyers and sellers generally agree on current price, but why would it close near the highs if the selling was so aggressive? Given that there is a long lower shadow and then a bullish candle close, we can infer that sellers were not willing to sell below $467.89. The buyers absorbed the selling at those prices.
Fast forwarding, we notice that the volume and candle size has shrunk back to the average meaning buyers and sellers are in agreeance. The number of people willing to transact is decreasing. We also notice that a small range has formed. Buyers have not stepped in to buy above the previous low of day at $469.35 and the sellers have shown no effort to get back below $467.89. Now we have something to trade against instead of FOMOing in! We will look for a break of this range with increased volume.
On the next candle we see bulls break out of the range with aggressive volume and a wide spread candle. Something of note is that the volume on this bull candle is less that the volume of our initial sell candle. If those sellers were still present, wouldn't they be selling at these higher prices and forcing the candle range to be narrow? This shows us that bulls are now in control and the selling from earlier was just a hoax.
As we can see, the rest is history. If I FOMOed into the short as I had planned, this trade would have resulted in a loss. Being patient allowed me to realize that there was nothing to miss out on and actually allowed me to find a better trade.
Key Notes
Always journal your trades and review them
Never FOMO into a trade. Be patient and wait for the trade to come to you!
You dont need to take every trade to make money in the market. It is okay to miss a trade if it means protecting your account.
Volume spread analysis is not 100%, but it can be useful in determining the strength of a trend.
QQQ showing more selling to comeQQQ throws signals that bears are still firmly in control and the downward trend should continue
QQQ tests major resistance line, fails to breakthrough
During recovery in late day trading volume steadily decreases showing disagreement in recovery
After hours shows a significant sell off which has recovered some since.
RSI falls in step with price showing no signs of reversal coming
Next major support line is around 463
Today marked the first day of strong downward trading breaking through support and holding. We are looking at more selling to come
QQQ sold off today and plummeted in after hoursQQQ started to finally show selling with momentum for first day in nearly a week of slowly selling.
It looks as though distribution phase has passed and selling with momentum has begun.
After hours etf continues to slide dramatically
Bulls have lost with bears firmly in control at the moment
The after hours sell we are experiencing now could possibly cause it to gap down on open then get filled in the morning before selling continues.
QQQ: Target hit + Next key points. |UPDATED|In our previous study, we warned about resistance at $484.43, and today, it hit our target at the 21-day EMA, exactly as we described in our last public analysis here on TradingView.
Now that the QQQ has reached our target, we should update our study.
Daily Chart
On the daily chart, QQQ has recently retraced after failing to break above the resistance level around $484.43, which corresponds with a prior top level. The 21-day EMA is currently acting as a dynamic support level, and if the QQQ loses this key point, it would reverse the bullish bias and seek its next support levels, such as the Fibonacci retracements as shown in the chart above.
Weekly Chart
The weekly chart offers a broader perspective, showing that QQQ remains within a long-term ascending channel. The recent pullback from the upper boundary of this channel suggests a potential correction or consolidation phase. The 21-week EMA, which has provided consistent support throughout the channel, is currently holding as a support level.
The price is currently positioned closer to the mid-point of the ascending channel, suggesting that the upward momentum might still be intact as long as it remains above the support levels seen on theh daily chart, especially the 21-day EMA. The next critical support area on the weekly chart is the lower boundary of the channel.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: $484.43 (Daily chart), which aligns with the previous top level.
Support: 21-day EMA and the Fibonacci retracements.
Summary
QQQ is showing signs of short-term bearish momentum as it retraces from the recent high near $484.43. The price is currently consolidating above important mid-term support levels. On the weekly chart, the longer-term uptrend within the ascending channel remains intact, suggesting that the bullish structure could resume if the price finds support at the lower boundary of the channel.
Let's watch the support levels closely for potential buying opportunities if the price stabilizes or rebounds.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
QQQ has day of consolidation testing resistanceQQQ increased slightly testing outer boundary of resistance line.
The day ended with a doji candle showing indecision in the direction
RSI remains slightly below SMA
EMA remains slightly below SMA
Stock breaks normal resistance to outer boundary during consolidation
Tomorrow will be important day defining the new direction. I anticipate tomorrow being a down day, but it may go in the other direction
QQQ showing bearish trend reversalQQQ is showing weakness in the rally and showing a bearish trend reversal
3 clear points show a downward trend forming
EMA holds distance firmly below SMA
Multiple hammer candles are rejected in todays trading causing more selling
QQQ looks to have finished its 2 week long rally and looking to reverse course downward
Potentially buying a put position tomorrow anticipating more selling to come.
Opening (IRA): QQQ August 30th 405 Monied Covered Call... for a 401.49 debit.
Comments: As with my IWM monied covered call, re-upping in QQQ in 45 days' duration with the short call at about the same delta it was in the setup I just took off with the basic goal being to milk a little bit more out of August without taking on additional risk. Here, re-upping at about the same short call delta actually results in a lower buying power effect and a lower break even.
Similar to the IWM setup, however, the metrics aren't sexy here as a standalone trade:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 401.49
Max Profit: 3.51
ROC at Max: .875%
50% Max: 1.76
ROC at 50% Max: .437%
Generally, 50% max take profit; roll out the short call for duration and a credit on side test.
QQQ In it's next bull run.
The CDV doesn't lie, along with a confluence of multiple momentum and volume indicators. Short of a black swan even it appears QQQ is headed to new all time highs. It was looking to form a head and shoulders on the daily, but you can see price broke the neck line, and has even came back to retest.
QQQ: Short Trade Explained
QQQ
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short QQQ
Entry Point - 480.03
Stop Loss - 489.99
Take Profit - 463.24
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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QQQ Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the QQQ next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 480.03
Bias - Bearish
Safe Stop Loss - 489.12
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 465.88
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
QQQ - Close TradeGoing to close the trade out after hours at $476.00 to lock in profits on the trade.
Nothing wrong with taking profits and with the uncertainty I woods rather take the profits and run.
Little over $900 realized! Not bad for a week. Real trades with real account, stop following broke ass furus!!
QQQ bounce right back to resistanceExtremely bullish 2 weeks after that crazy low last Monday morning. You can see that QQQ tagged resistance yesterday and sold off today. Market is feeling bullish, but my gut tells me that this is a dead cat bounce. Hard to know for sure. The rally has been almost abnormally strong, and if you look back to early 2022 you saw the same thing. Big sell off with ridiculously strong rallies, but ultimately the market kept going down. Now, I obviously don't know that for sure. The advice I got the other day was "stocks only go up" as he bought a bunch of TQQQ and made a nice profit the last 2 weeks. So, maybe it pays to always be bullish.
Anyhow, I'll just keep doodling on my charts and sharing with the hope that it helps someone.
QQQ - Trade Update Options StrategyI was assigned the contract Wednesday so currently short 200 shares of QQQ. Little surprised since the aftermarket took us under the 380 level but it is what it is.
Strategy today will be to sell some ATM PUTS against the position like the 483, 484 strike.
Will depend on the open, and I will update at that time.
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QQQ: Trading at a Critical Inflection Point (1H & D Charts).1-Hour Chart (Left Side)
On the 1-hour chart, the price has approached a significant resistance level at $484.43. This level is critical as it has previously acted as a barrier, preventing the price from moving higher. The price is currently trending upwards, supported by the 21-period EMA, which has been providing dynamic support. A breakout above this resistance could indicate further bullish momentum, while a failure to break through, with tthe loss of thhe 21 EMA, might suggest a potential pullback or consolidation below this level, seen on the daily chart.
Daily Chart (Right Side)
The daily chart also emphasizes the significance of the $484.43 resistance. There is an open gap above the price, and if QQQ breaks its main resistance level, itt could seek the ATH in sequence, aided by this gap. The closing of this gap could be a critical event, as gaps often act as magnets for price action. The 21-day EMA is sloping upwards, reflecting the underlying bullish momentum, and the gap closure remains a key level to watch. If the price triggers a top signal under our main resistance, a pullback to the 21-day EMA would be expected.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: $484.43 is the immediate resistance level, with the gap closure being a crucial event.
Support: The 21-day EMA on the daily chart, along with the $467-$470 area, might provide support if the price faces rejection at the resistance.
Summary
QQQ is at a pivotal point where the $484.43 resistance and the gap closure on the daily chart could determine the next direction. A successful breakout and gap closure might lead to further gains, while a rejection could see the price retrace towards the 21-day EMA. We should monitor these levels closely for signals of the next significant move.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
QQQ: is approaching a critical level If QQQ fails to close and open above $495 on the weekly chart, my bold prediction is that we could see a decline to the first target price of $360 and potentially down to $320 by January 2026. However, if QQQ breaks above $495 and closes above it, we could see a rally to $563 or even $650.
QQQ: Approaching a critical levelIf QQQ fails to close and open above $495 on the weekly chart, my bold prediction is that we could see a decline to the first target price of $360 and potentially down to $320 by January 2026. However, if QQQ breaks above $495 and closes above it, we could see a rally to $563 or even $650.