QQQQQQ Nasdaq 100 Binary Fund is possible and very early, and if the rise is completed we will have 423 then 445
QQQ trade ideas
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): Supertrend Bullish SignalHello everyone,
The Pro Supertrend Calculator confirms a bullish trend for the Nasdaq, and here is the underlying analysis. When we observe a sequence of 40 consecutive periods above the Supertrend line, a robust signal emerges. Out of these 40 instances, prices were above the line 10 times and below only 3 times. It's not just a series of numbers; rather, it's a dynamic representation of the market's evolution.
Now, let's delve into the technical aspect without veering into informal terms. The Supertrend, in its calculation, relies on a meticulous analysis of trends and volatility, adjusting its trajectory based on market developments.
Currently, the Supertrend paints a bullish outlook for the Nasdaq with a confirmed probability of 75%. To clarify, it's not just a line on the chart; it's an intelligent guide amidst the trading tumult. As we navigate this bullish wave, may you find in the Supertrend a reliable ally, guiding us toward successful transactions and substantial profits.
To your success in trading and best wishes!
QQQ outlookJust something to keep track of on QQQ....seems to be nearing a wave 3 top right after breaking previous ATH. Should consolidate here for a bit while everyone panics about recessions an such, then when it reaches around 340, we should see lift off again.
Minervini’s Trade Management and Exit StrategiesIntroduction
In the dynamic world of trading, mastering the art of trade management and developing robust exit strategies are as crucial as identifying the right entry points. These skills are not just about safeguarding investments; they are about maximizing profitability and ensuring long-term success in the markets. The importance of these strategies cannot be overstated, as they play a pivotal role in determining whether a trader achieves consistent success or faces erratic results.
At the heart of this discussion is the expertise of Mark Minervini, a renowned stock market wizard whose track record speaks volumes. Minervini, a U.S. Investing Champion, is not just known for his exceptional entry strategies but equally for his disciplined approach to managing trades and executing well-timed exits. His methods, deeply rooted in a thorough understanding of market psychology and technical analysis, offer invaluable lessons in how to navigate the complexities of both bullish and bearish markets.
This article delves into the vital components of trade management and exit strategies as advocated by Minervini. We will explore how to effectively manage open trades, discern the right time to lock in profits, and importantly, how to recognize when a trade is not working and it's time to cut losses. The focus will be on striking that delicate balance between realizing profits and minimizing losses - a balance that is essential for sustaining success in the world of trading. Through this exploration, readers will gain insights into not just the mechanics but also the mindset required to execute these strategies effectively, drawing upon the wisdom and experience of one of the most successful traders of our time.
Overview of Trade Management in Minervini's Strategy
Trade management, a cornerstone in Mark Minervini's trading strategy, is the disciplined process of overseeing a trade from the moment of entry until exit. It encompasses a range of decisions and actions that a trader must consider to maximize potential gains and minimize losses. In Minervini's approach, trade management is not a static set of rules but a dynamic process that adjusts to the changing conditions of the market and the evolving performance of the stock.
Minervini’s strategy, distinguished by its meticulous nature, treats each trade as a unique scenario. This approach goes beyond merely identifying entry points; it involves continuous monitoring and adjusting of positions as the market unfolds. Critical to this process is the assessment of risk-reward ratios, vigilant stop-loss management, and the strategic planning of exit points. Minervini emphasizes the importance of not only knowing when to enter a trade but also when to exit – whether for profit or to stop a loss.
The essence of effective trade management in Minervini's philosophy lies in its capacity to enhance the longevity and sustainability of a trading career. It's about protecting the trading capital and compounding gains over time. Effective trade management acts as a safeguard against the emotional pitfalls of trading, such as greed and fear, which often lead to hasty decisions. By sticking to a well-defined trade management plan, traders can maintain a level of consistency and discipline, essential for navigating the uncertainties of the market.
Minervini’s approach demonstrates that successful trading is not just about the number of winning trades but about how well you manage each trade, maximizing profits and, just as importantly, minimizing losses. This holistic view of trade management is fundamental to achieving long-term success in the highly competitive and often unpredictable world of stock trading.
Setting Profit Targets
In the realm of trading, setting profit targets is a critical aspect of a successful strategy. Mark Minervini, a veteran trader known for his meticulous approach, places significant emphasis on establishing realistic and attainable profit targets. According to Minervini's principles, the setting of these targets is not a mere guessing game but a strategic decision grounded in thorough analysis and informed by a deep understanding of market dynamics.
A key factor in setting profit targets is the historical performance of the stock. Minervini advocates for a careful examination of past price patterns and trends. This analysis provides valuable insights into the potential range of movement a stock can exhibit. By understanding the historical highs and lows, along with the average percentage moves during bullish phases, traders can set more informed and achievable profit targets.
Another critical aspect is the current market conditions. Minervini's approach involves gauging the overall market sentiment and trend. In a strong bullish market, profit targets might be set higher, capitalizing on the general upward momentum. Conversely, in a bearish or volatile market, more conservative targets may be prudent to mitigate risk. This adaptive strategy ensures that profit targets are aligned with the broader market environment, maximizing opportunities while managing risk.
Individual stock behavior also plays a crucial role in setting profit targets. Minervini pays close attention to specific indicators such as trading volume, price action, and earnings growth. A stock showing strong fundamentals coupled with positive price action might warrant a more ambitious profit target. In contrast, a stock with weaker fundamentals or less favorable price action might necessitate a more modest target. This tailored approach to each stock ensures that profit targets are not only realistic but also optimized for each trading scenario.
In essence, setting profit targets in Minervini's trading strategy is a balanced act of considering historical data, current market conditions, and individual stock behavior. This methodical approach underscores the importance of informed decision-making in trading, steering clear of arbitrary or overly optimistic targets. By setting realistic profit targets, traders can effectively manage their expectations and position themselves for sustainable success.
Using Stop-Loss Orders for Risk Control
In the high-stakes world of trading, stop-loss orders are a fundamental tool for risk control, and their strategic use is a hallmark of Mark Minervini’s trade management philosophy. A stop-loss order is an order placed with a broker to sell a security when it reaches a specific price. In Minervini's approach, these are not just protective measures; they are integral components of a comprehensive trading plan, designed to limit potential losses and protect capital.
The key to effectively using stop-loss orders lies in setting appropriate stop-loss levels. Minervini advocates for setting these levels based on technical analysis and market realities, rather than on the amount one is willing to lose. This involves identifying support and resistance levels, historical price patterns, and volatility indicators. For instance, a stop-loss might be placed just below a significant support level, recognizing that if this level is breached, the rationale for holding the position may no longer be valid.
Adjusting stop-loss orders is equally important in Minervini's strategy. As a trade progresses favorably, he recommends adjusting the stop-loss level upwards to lock in profits and further reduce potential loss. This practice, known as 'trailing stop-loss', ensures that profits are protected while giving the trade room to grow. It's a dynamic process that balances the desire to maximize gains with the necessity of minimizing losses.
Another aspect of Minervini's approach is the consideration of market volatility. In highly volatile markets, stop-loss levels may need to be set wider to avoid being stopped out by normal price fluctuations. Conversely, in more stable markets, tighter stop-losses can be used to protect profits and capital more effectively.
The use of stop-loss orders in Minervini’s strategy is not just a tactic, but a discipline. It requires traders to make pre-planned decisions, thus removing emotional bias from the equation. This disciplined approach to risk control ensures that traders do not hold onto losing positions in the hope of a turnaround, a common pitfall in the trading world.
In summary, stop-loss orders, as utilized in Minervini’s trading strategy, are essential tools for risk management. They are carefully calibrated to each trade, taking into account technical indicators, market conditions, and overall trading goals. By effectively using stop-loss orders, traders can protect their capital, manage their risk, and position themselves for long-term success in the unpredictable realm of the stock market.
Assessing Market Conditions
Understanding and adapting to changing market conditions is a critical component of successful trade management and exit strategy formulation. Mark Minervini, with his deep-rooted understanding of market nuances, emphasizes the importance of being responsive and adaptable to the market's ebb and flow. This article explores how varying market conditions influence trade decisions and the paramount importance of adaptability in Minervini's trading approach.
Market conditions can vary widely, from bullish trends to bearish downturns, and from high volatility environments to periods of market calm. Each of these scenarios presents different challenges and opportunities, influencing how a trade should be managed and when it might be appropriate to exit. For instance, in a strong bull market, traders might hold onto their positions for longer, allowing profits to run further, whereas in a volatile or bear market, tighter stop-losses and quicker exits might be more prudent to protect capital.
Minervini is particularly known for his acute awareness of the market's overall health and direction. He assesses various indicators, including market breadth, leading sectors, and the performance of major indices, to gauge market strength. This holistic view helps in making informed decisions about trade management and determining appropriate exit points. If the market shows signs of weakness, Minervini might be more inclined to take profits early or tighten stop-loss orders to safeguard against sudden downturns.
Adaptability and responsiveness are the cornerstones of Minervini's approach. He understands that the market is an ever-evolving entity and that strategies and plans must be flexible enough to accommodate this dynamism. This means being willing to reassess and adjust trade parameters in response to new information or shifts in market sentiment. It's not just about having a plan but also about being ready to modify that plan when the market context changes.
Moreover, Minervini advocates for a mindset that is open to change and free from ego. Many traders fall into the trap of becoming emotionally attached to their positions or predictions. In contrast, Minervini's method involves a dispassionate analysis of the market's actual behavior, allowing for a nimble and unbiased approach to trade management and exit decisions.
In conclusion, assessing and adapting to market conditions is an essential skill in trading, significantly emphasized in Minervini's strategy. By being observant, flexible, and responsive, traders can manage their trades more effectively and make smarter exit decisions, aligning their actions with the actual movements and trends of the market. This adaptability not only helps in capitalizing on opportunities but also plays a crucial role in risk management and long-term trading success.
Criteria for Exiting a Trade
Deciding when to exit a trade is as crucial as knowing when to enter, and Mark Minervini, a seasoned trader, emphasizes several key criteria for making these pivotal decisions. His approach to exiting a trade is methodical, relying on a combination of pre-set objectives, market analysis, and technical indicators. This article delves into the specific criteria that Minervini uses to guide his exit decisions, including reaching profit targets, stop-loss triggers, and the interpretation of technical indicators.
Hitting Profit Targets: One of the primary criteria for exiting a trade in Minervini's strategy is reaching pre-determined profit targets. These targets are set based on a thorough analysis of the stock's historical performance and market conditions. For instance, if a stock has consistently shown a capacity for a 20% gain post-breakout, setting a profit target around this percentage would be in line with Minervini's approach. Once this target is hit, Minervini advocates for taking profits, rather than succumbing to greed and holding out for even higher gains.
Stop-Loss Triggers: Equally important in Minervini’s strategy is the use of stop-loss orders as a trigger for exiting a trade. These are set at strategic levels to limit potential losses. For example, a stop-loss might be placed just below a key support level or a recent low. If this level is breached, it often indicates a breakdown in the stock's pattern or a shift in market sentiment, warranting an exit.
Technical Indicators: Minervini also employs various technical indicators to inform his exit decisions. These include changes in volume patterns, reversal signals on candlestick charts, and breaks below key moving averages. For example, a high-volume sell-off or a bearish reversal pattern like a 'head and shoulders' could signal a potential exit. Similarly, a break below a critical moving average such as the 50-day or 200-day line might indicate weakening momentum and a possible exit point.
Change in Fundamental Conditions: Although primarily a technical trader, Minervini does not ignore fundamental shifts. A significant change in the fundamental outlook of a company, such as deteriorating earnings or a change in leadership, can also prompt an exit. This criterion reflects the importance of staying attuned to all aspects influencing a stock's performance.
Market Environment Shifts: Lastly, broad shifts in the overall market environment can be a criterion for exiting trades. If the general market starts showing signs of weakness or enters a correction phase, Minervini might consider exiting positions, even if individual stocks have not hit their profit targets or stop-loss levels.
In summary, Minervini’s criteria for exiting a trade are multifaceted, integrating profit targets, stop-loss triggers, technical analysis, fundamental changes, and overall market conditions. This comprehensive approach ensures that exit decisions are well-rounded, balancing the pursuit of profit with prudent risk management. By adhering to these criteria, traders can make informed decisions, maximizing gains, and minimizing losses, in alignment with the nuanced complexities of market behavior.
Managing Winning Trades
Navigating winning trades is a nuanced art in the trading world. Mark Minervini, known for his strategic prowess, emphasizes several key strategies for maximizing profits while simultaneously safeguarding them. Central to this is finding the delicate balance between allowing profits to run and protecting the gains already made. This article explores the techniques employed by Minervini to manage winning trades, particularly focusing on the use of trailing stops and the equilibrium between pursuing greater profits and risk management.
Using Trailing Stops: A pivotal strategy in Minervini’s approach is the use of trailing stop-loss orders. Unlike fixed stop-loss orders, trailing stops move in tandem with the stock price, locking in profits as the stock's price climbs. For instance, if a stock rises by a certain percentage or dollar amount from its purchase price, the trailing stop is adjusted upward by a proportional amount. This technique ensures that profits are protected against sudden downturns, while still giving the trade room to grow. It’s a dynamic tool that adapts to the stock’s performance, embodying the principle of 'letting profits run while cutting losses short'.
Evaluating Market Strength and Stock Momentum: Minervini closely monitors the strength of the overall market and the momentum of individual stocks. In strong market conditions, he might give winning trades more leeway, allowing them to run further before tightening the trailing stop. Similarly, if a stock demonstrates sustained strength and superior performance, it could warrant staying in the trade longer to maximize gains. This assessment is continually updated to reflect the latest market data and stock behavior.
Reassessing Trade Thesis: A key aspect of managing winning trades is the continual reassessment of the initial trade thesis. Minervini examines whether the reasons for entering the trade still hold true. Factors such as changing market conditions, new company developments, or shifts in sector dynamics might influence the decision to either stay in the trade or take profits.
Balancing Greed and Prudence: One of the most challenging aspects of trading is managing the psychological component. Minervini stresses the importance of balancing the natural inclination towards greed – wanting to squeeze out every possible gain – with the prudence of securing profits. This balance is achieved by sticking to a disciplined trading plan, one that incorporates trailing stops and continuous assessment of the trade's validity.
Partial Profit Taking: Another strategy employed by Minervini is taking partial profits at predetermined levels while leaving a portion of the position open to benefit from any further upside. This approach captures some gains while still participating in potential future growth.
In conclusion, managing winning trades in Minervini’s style is a multifaceted approach that requires a combination of strategic tools like trailing stops, an ongoing analysis of market conditions and stock momentum, and a disciplined mindset. It’s about striking a balance between the desire to let profits run and the wisdom to protect them, ensuring that successful trades contribute significantly to overall trading success.
Handling Losing Trades
In the unpredictable landscape of trading, encountering losing trades is an inevitable part of the journey. Mark Minervini, a seasoned trader, underscores several key strategies for effectively managing losing trades, with an emphasis on minimizing losses, executing timely exits, and maintaining emotional discipline. This article delves into these strategies, highlighting the importance of a rational approach to losing trades and the avoidance of common psychological pitfalls such as the "sunk cost fallacy."
Timely Exits Using Pre-Set Stop-Loss Orders: One of Minervini's fundamental strategies for handling losing trades is the implementation of pre-set stop-loss orders. These orders are designed to automatically exit a trade at a predetermined price point, thus capping potential losses. By setting these levels based on technical analysis and risk tolerance, traders can ensure they exit losing positions before the losses exacerbate. This practice not only preserves capital but also helps in maintaining a clear trading plan, free from emotional decision-making.
Reassessing the Trade Thesis: When a trade starts to move against expectations, Minervini advises a thorough reassessment of the original trade thesis. This involves examining whether the conditions under which the trade was initiated have changed. Factors such as shifting market trends, sector weaknesses, or changes in a company’s fundamentals should trigger a reevaluation. If the original reasons for entering the trade no longer hold, it may be prudent to exit, even before the stop-loss is triggered.
Avoiding the Sunk Cost Fallacy: A critical aspect of handling losing trades is avoiding the sunk cost fallacy – the tendency to continue investing in a losing proposition in the hope of recovering past losses. Minervini emphasizes the importance of viewing each trade as an independent decision, unaffected by the amount of time or money already invested. The decision to stay in a trade should be based on current analysis and prospects, not on the desire to recoup previous losses.
Emotional Discipline and Rational Decision-Making: Emotional discipline is paramount in handling losing trades. Minervini highlights the importance of separating emotions from trading decisions. Feelings of hope, fear, or regret can cloud judgment, leading to irrational decisions like holding onto losing trades for too long. A disciplined approach, one that adheres to pre-set rules and logical analysis, is essential for navigating through losses effectively.
Learning from Losing Trades: Finally, Minervini advocates for using losing trades as learning opportunities. Analyzing why a trade did not work out as expected can provide valuable insights, helping to refine strategies and improve future decision-making. This constructive approach transforms losses into lessons, contributing to a trader's growth and resilience.
In summary, handling losing trades in Minervini's style involves a blend of strategic planning, continuous reassessment, emotional discipline, and an openness to learning. By applying these strategies, traders can minimize losses, maintain a healthy trading psychology, and lay a foundation for long-term success in the challenging world of trading.
The Role of Portfolio Analysis in Exit Strategies
In the realm of trading, individual trade decisions do not exist in isolation; they are part of a broader strategy that encompasses the entire portfolio. Mark Minervini, with his nuanced approach to trading, places great emphasis on how overall portfolio performance influences individual trade exits. This article explores the integral role of portfolio analysis in shaping exit strategies and discusses the concept of portfolio rebalancing in accordance with Minervini’s methods.
Assessing Portfolio Health and Performance: Minervini advocates for regularly assessing the overall health and performance of the portfolio. This analysis goes beyond simply tallying up gains and losses; it involves evaluating the portfolio's alignment with market conditions, risk exposure, and investment objectives. For instance, if a portfolio is heavily skewed towards a sector that is starting to show weakness, it might prompt reevaluation and adjustment of individual positions within that sector.
Impact on Individual Trade Exits: The performance of the overall portfolio can significantly influence decisions on individual trade exits. In a scenario where the portfolio is performing robustly, a trader might afford more leeway to individual positions, allowing them to run further before exiting. Conversely, in a portfolio that is underperforming or exposed to heightened risk, there might be a more conservative approach towards exiting trades, focusing on protecting capital and reducing exposure.
Portfolio Rebalancing as a Strategic Tool: Portfolio rebalancing is a critical strategy in Minervini’s approach. It involves adjusting the composition of the portfolio to maintain a desired level of risk and alignment with trading goals. Rebalancing can lead to exiting certain trades, especially those that no longer fit the portfolio's risk profile or have become disproportionately large, thereby skewing the portfolio's balance. This process is not just about cutting losses or taking profits; it's about strategic realignment with overarching trading objectives.
Dynamic Response to Market Changes: Minervini’s method requires a dynamic response to changing market conditions. This might mean reducing exposure to certain sectors in response to market shifts or taking profits in over-performing areas to reallocate resources to more promising opportunities. Portfolio analysis in this context is an ongoing process, demanding vigilance and responsiveness.
Risk Management through Diversification: Integral to portfolio analysis in Minervini’s strategy is the concept of diversification as a risk management tool. Diversification involves spreading investments across various sectors and asset classes to mitigate risk. This diversification influences exit strategies, as it might necessitate exiting trades in over-represented areas to maintain a balanced and diversified portfolio.
Periodic Reviews and Adjustments: Regularly reviewing and adjusting the portfolio is a key aspect of Minervini's approach. This includes reassessing individual holdings, sector allocations, and the overall risk profile, ensuring that the portfolio remains aligned with strategic objectives and market realities.
In conclusion, the role of portfolio analysis in shaping exit strategies is a fundamental aspect of Mark Minervini's trading approach. It involves a holistic view of the portfolio, considering not just the performance of individual trades but also their impact on and alignment with the overall portfolio. Through strategic rebalancing, risk management, and dynamic responsiveness to market changes, traders can ensure that their exit strategies are well-informed, balanced, and conducive to long-term trading success.
Common Mistakes and Pitfalls
Navigating the world of trading is fraught with potential missteps, especially in the realms of trade management and exit decisions. Even experienced traders can fall prey to common errors that can adversely affect their trading performance. Mark Minervini, through his years of trading experience, has identified several such pitfalls and offers valuable advice on how to avoid them. This article outlines these common mistakes and provides guidance on steering clear of them.
Letting Emotions Drive Decisions: One of the most prevalent errors in trading is allowing emotions like fear, greed, or hope to dictate trade management and exit strategies. Emotional decision-making can lead to holding onto losing trades for too long or selling winning trades too early. Minervini advocates for a disciplined, rule-based approach where decisions are made based on analysis and strategy, not emotional reactions.
Failing to Set or Adhere to Stop-Loss Orders: Another common mistake is not setting stop-loss orders or ignoring them once set. Stop-losses are critical for risk management, and disregarding them can lead to significant and unnecessary losses. Traders should adhere to their pre-set stop-loss levels, ensuring they exit losing trades as planned to protect their capital.
Overtrading or Micromanaging Trades: Overtrading, often driven by the urge to constantly be in the market or to recoup losses, can lead to diminished returns and increased transaction costs. Similarly, micromanaging every small market move can prevent trades from reaching their full potential. Minervini emphasizes the importance of patience and allowing trades to develop based on the initial analysis and strategy.
Ignoring Market Conditions and Trends: Neglecting the broader market context is a mistake that can lead to poor trade management decisions. Minervini underlines the need to align trade strategies with overall market conditions, adapting exit strategies based on market trends and volatility.
Setting Unrealistic Profit Targets: While optimism is a positive trait, setting unrealistic profit targets can lead to disappointment and poor decision-making. Targets should be based on thorough analysis and realistic expectations, considering historical performance and current market dynamics.
Not Learning from Past Trades: Every trade, whether successful or not, offers valuable lessons. A common pitfall is not taking the time to analyze and learn from past trades. Minervini advises reviewing both winning and losing trades to understand what worked and what didn’t, thereby refining future strategies.
Lack of a Well-Defined Trading Plan: Perhaps the most fundamental error is not having a well-defined trading plan. Such a plan should include clear criteria for entering and exiting trades, risk management strategies, and how to respond to various market scenarios. Trading without a plan is akin to navigating without a map, likely leading to inconsistent and unguided decisions.
To avoid these common mistakes, traders should cultivate discipline, adhere to a well-thought-out trading plan, remain aware of market conditions, set realistic goals, and continuously learn from their experiences. By embodying these practices, traders can significantly improve their trade management and exit decision-making processes, aligning their actions with the principles of successful trading as advocated by Mark Minervini.
Conclusion
Throughout this exploration of trade management and exit strategies, guided by the principles of Mark Minervini, we've uncovered the vital components that contribute to successful trading. This journey has emphasized the necessity of a disciplined approach, not just in selecting trades but in managing them through to their conclusion, whether that be in realizing profits or mitigating losses.
The key points we've covered underscore this disciplined approach:
Strategic Trade Management: Effective trade management is central to success. It involves setting realistic profit targets based on thorough analysis, using stop-loss orders to control risks, and continuously reassessing trades as market conditions evolve.
Considered Exit Strategies: Exit strategies must be adaptable, responding to the ongoing performance of the trade and overarching market trends. These strategies hinge on a balance between reaching predetermined profit targets and responding to technical or fundamental signals that suggest a change in strategy.
Emotional Discipline: A critical aspect of trading is the ability to maintain emotional discipline. Decisions should be driven by strategy and analytical insight rather than emotional responses, a challenge but a necessity for consistent success.
Continuous Learning: Each trade, whether a win or a loss, is a learning opportunity. Reflective analysis of past trades is essential for refining strategies and improving future decision-making.
Holistic Portfolio Management: Effective trade management also involves considering each trade’s role within the broader portfolio. Regularly reviewing and rebalancing the portfolio to align with strategic objectives and risk tolerance is crucial.
Awareness of Pitfalls: Recognizing and avoiding common trading mistakes, such as emotional decision-making, neglecting market conditions, or failing to adhere to a trading plan, is vital for long-term trading efficacy.
In summation, the teachings of Mark Minervini offer more than just tactics; they provide a framework for disciplined trading, incorporating both technical skill and psychological fortitude. This comprehensive approach to trade management and exit strategies is not merely a set of rules but a philosophy of trading that emphasizes thoughtful decision-making, risk management, and adaptability. Embracing these principles equips traders with the tools and mindset necessary to navigate the complexities and challenges of the market, paving the way for sustained success in their trading pursuits.
Ascending Triangle Pattern on QQQNice Ascending Triangle Pattern on QQQ which broke out today above resistance level and also retested to the breakout line. This is a great opportunity to buy Call Options.
head and shoulders patternThe chart seems to be side way. Waiting for next month, Once the price go up to 412 or retest again at the price 403. We probably can see better patterns at those price range.
Happy Holidays and Merry ChristmasHappy holidays and merry Christmas, traders.
With only a few days remaining in 2023, now is the time to rejuvenate, reflect on all the things markets threw at us, and plan for the start of a new year.
Do your research, study up, and be ready.
We've also got a few things to show you next year, so stay tuned 💪
Look first, then leap.
QQQ rejected off top of 2009-2023 channelBlue channel represents the primary trading channel since the 2009 crash. Only during the Covid bubble was QQQ able to escape that channel (ended up doubling it). Price can still work its way up along this resistance line, such as 2014 and 2018, but both of those times the stock market averaged out to be pretty flat over about a year time frame.
Here it is on the 1W
QQQ Inside Day after ATHQQQ sold off late 12/20 and is now sitting inside yesterdays candle right under ATH. Waiting to see if this is just a rest day, or if we see some continuation to the downside. Pretty split on longs and shorts at the moment. Waiting day imo.
QQQ Bear CaseLots of bull posting lately (by myself as well as others). Wanted to put things into perspective and manage expectations. Market has been ripping lately, with everyone calling for fresh highs. However, QQQ is inches from ATH, and extremely overbought on the daily. I would not be shocked if we see a reversal here at least in the short term before we push higher. No hedge position at the moment, just watching.
QQQ (NASDAQ) strong sell signalsNASDAQ:QQQ
The NASDAQ is showing very strong sell signals. Our custom indicator suggests an 85% proability of a significant downside on the weekly. This same proability also exists on the monthly, showing mounting sell pressure. When you also consider the very overbrought levels this is a recipe for disaster. We suspect that the Magnificant 7 stocks will be hit hard. If you also factor in a bottom bottom on the dollar and a (still severe) top in the S & P 500 (see our seperate analysis) then the start of 2024 looks very poor for stocks. Be very defensive here.
QQQ: NASDAQ 100 HEADING TO $500 BY DEC 2025With the Nasdaq 100 index clearing its previous all time high for the FIRST TIME IN 757 DAYS & closing at 409..
Expect the bull market to continue until December 2025.
Next time we will see 409 is in the 2026 Bear Market
And that will be the bottom around 2H 2026... until then, happy trading!
new all time highs in NQ first to report WE have a multiyear double top. Go back and read my Idea about shorting any and all new ATHs in late 22. I made a lot of money at ATH in 2021. shorting it gets easier riding shorts down in a trending market.
I will add more charts later, just notice we have exactly matched ATH.
QQQ SWINGI like charts
This one caught my eye.
Very clear subwave structure for the 3rd wave of the possible /'yellow' 3rd ending at 2x which is also 23.6x of the lower degree 3rd confirming smaller degree 5th.
$
QQQ: Short Signal with Entry/SL/TP
QQQ
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell QQQ
Entry - 404.98
Stop - 408.78
Take - 396.90
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
QQQ Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for QQQ is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 404.98
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 390.48
My Stop Loss - 412.18
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
$QQQ is testing the most important medium-term resistanceNASDAQ:QQQ is testing the upside resistance to confirm the fifth wave finished
Opening (IRA): QQQ March 24th 280/May 19th 323 LPD*... for a 31.72 debit.
Comments: Short delta hedge against a long delta portfolio. Buying the back -90 delta put and selling the front +30 to give me -60 delta/contract worth of hedge. This isn't a commentary or forecast of where the market goes from here, but rather in the nature of buying protection to keep my wife from yelling at me because her portfolio is down too much.
31.72 cost basis with a 291.28 break even on a 43 wide.
* -- Long put diagonal.
Opening (IRA): QQQ March 15th 348 Short Put... for a 3.51 credit.
Comments: Targeting the shortest duration <16 delta put paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. Will naturally look to add in shorter duration should we get a sell-off and/or up-tick in IV that makes that worthwhile.
IWM & SPX face Ripping rally!The IWM & S&P500 is completely gone vertical; off the lowering of yields.
Its like the fed Pivoted today, but really they didnt.
Is this a Fomo rally or is the market fundamentals now turned Bullish?
Bull Steepener vs Bear Steepener?
$QQQ: Long term trend turning up?A pattern similar to the one that took place after the 2003 and 2009 bottoms is surfacing in mega cap tech and in index charts now...
Low risk buy signal suggesting we might get a substantial rally from here within the coming months, but potentially also for a couple years if the quarterly chart triggers here. This quarterly signal is visible in names like NASDAQ:AAPL and NASDAQ:MSFT , to name a few, so I think it will also trigger here.
It also comes on the heels of rates potentially having peaked for the time being, and the Dollar turning down after rallying substantially as of late. And after Oil has come down off the highs, which gives the market a bullish boost with some lag...it will be visible in the next quarterly report or two.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan 'risk on' Labrie.
QQQ: Week of December 11And last idea I will do is QQQ, unless otherwise requested to do something else.
Think I will ignore SPY this week.
Levels for QQQ are in the chart.
I usually check for price accumulation over the previous 500, 30 minute candles, but QQQ and the indices were kind of rangy last week so had to expand to 1,500 candle lookback.
Momentum probs are actually bearish with a 67% success rate.
Standard deviation are bullish with an identical success rate.
From looking at the probs on most things, I think we will see movement in both directions. If we can see some dipping first.. well... as they say... BTFD...
But at the end of the day, let PA speak for itself and watch those conditionals.
Safe trades everyone!
