QQQ trade ideas
QQQ: Bears Are AngryNothing looks bullish and everything looks bearish on the QQQ.
Lower high, lower low, broken down parallel channel, under the 21W and 20W MA, RSI rolling over after visiting the red Bollinger band, and price entering low volume zone since the drop in 2022.
Based on the volume since 2022, 318-325 seems like the most likely long-term support for QQQ. It corresponds to the 0.5 fib level and where the most volume is. We also saw strong support at this level back in spring 2022.
Please keep in mind that nothing goes down/up in a straight line. I expect us to revisit the MAs and test them as resistance.
A Roadmap on How this Year May Turn Out | QQQYet again buyer are still able to keep price higher and higher but at the same time we can spot weakness in each rally that occurs.
Key note to look out for is that this rally that started in 2023 seems similar to the last in 2020 except for the Feds stimulus package that set the economy in turbo mode. As highlighted in green you can analyze the strength in both rallies to help predict what this year could look like, and going into the next.
Based on the analysis QQQ is set to hit around $500 near the end of this year. As seen with technology carrying the market on its back, BTC, NVDA, and top performing assets are really set to explode even higher than what we see now.
Buckle UP
QQQ Bull Flag?I'm skeptical, but this could be a Bear Flag forming...
The bull flag pattern is a continuation pattern that facilitates an extension of an uptrend. The price action consolidates within the two parallel trend lines in the opposite direction of the uptrend, before breaking out and continuing the uptrend.
Redistribution or Accumulation, that is the question?!From the perspective of Wyckoff analysis, both accumulation and redistribution involve price action within a trading range (TR), but they represent vastly different underlying market dynamics:
Accumulation:
Underlying Trend: Accumulation typically occurs at the beginning of an uptrend.
Supply and Demand: Smart money (institutions, experienced traders) are actively buying shares, causing demand to outweigh supply. This pushes the price upward with increasing volume.
Price Action: The price action in an accumulation phase is characterized by testing and absorbing supply (support levels). There may be false breakdowns and narrow price ranges as buying pressure builds.
Redistribution:
Underlying Trend: Redistribution typically occurs within an existing downtrend. It's a pause in the downward movement before a continuation of the downtrend.
Supply and Demand: Smart money is distributing (selling) their holdings, causing supply to outweigh demand. This puts downward pressure on the price, but volume may be lower compared to accumulation.
Price Action: The price action in a redistribution phase may resemble accumulation with testing and absorbing support, but with key differences:
False breakdowns may be weaker and fail to hold.
**Upward movements may be less vigorous and lack confirmation from volume.
Price tends to create lower highs compared to previous rallies.
Distinguishing between the two:
Differentiating between accumulation and redistribution can be crucial for informed trading decisions. Here are some additional points to consider:
Context: Analyze the broader market trend and the stock's specific history.
Volume: While not absolute, accumulation typically sees rising volume, while redistribution may have lower or stagnant volume.
Confirmation: Look for confirmation signals such as breakouts above resistance for accumulation or breakdowns below support for redistribution.
QQQ A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear friends,
QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 436.74 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 426.12
Recommended Stop Loss - 441.83
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
US-Market SentimentUS Market Sentiment and Swing-Trading Considerations -
NASDAQ Heatmap
Color-Coded Performance Indicators:
Green Boxes: Represent stocks that have had positive performance over the past week. The intensity of the green color indicates the level of positive performance, with darker greens showing stronger gains.
Red Boxes: Represent stocks that have experienced negative performance. Similarly, darker reds show larger declines.
Sector Analysis:
Technology Services: Companies like NASDAQ:MSFT (Microsoft) and NASDAQ:GOOG (Alphabet) show moderate gains, suggesting a positive sentiment in the technology services sector.
Electronic Technology: A mixed view with significant gains by NASDAQ:NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) but a slight decline in NASDAQ:AAPL (Apple) indicating a divergence in performance within this sector.
Retail Trade: NASDAQ:AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) shows a strong performance, which is a positive sign for the e-commerce space within retail. However, PDD and MELI experienced notable declines.
Health Technology: Mostly green with strong performances from companies like AZN, indicating good momentum in this sector.
Consumer Durables: NASDAQ:TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) is down significantly, which could suggest a potential concern for the electric vehicle or broader consumer durables market.
Consumer Non-Durables: A mix of performance, though PEP is up, which might indicate stability in consumer staples.
Notable Stock Movements:
NVDA: The strong gain suggests investor confidence or positive news related to the semiconductor industry or the company specifically.
ADBE: The notable decline could be due to earnings reports, market sentiment, or sector-related news impacting software companies.
AMZN: A substantial increase like this could be driven by positive earnings, favorable market news, or successful business ventures.
TSLA: A sharp decline may be the result of negative press, disappointing earnings, or adverse industry developments.
Market Sentiment:
The overall market sentiment can be gauged by the balance of green to red. In this heatmap, green appears more prevalent in larger squares (representing larger companies by market cap), suggesting a cautiously optimistic sentiment among major players.
Considerations for Swing Trading:
Momentum Stocks: Stocks like AMZN and NVDA with strong positive momentum could be considered for a swing trade, following Minervini’s principle of trading in sync with the market trend.
Volume and Price Action: Before making trading decisions, it's important to analyze the volume and price action for confirmation of the trends suggested by the heatmap.
Potential Reversals: Stocks like TSLA and ADBE that have experienced significant drops might be scrutinized for potential reversals if they approach technical support levels.
Final Thoughts:
This heatmap is a snapshot and does not provide the granularity needed to make a final trading decision. It is a starting point for identifying potential stocks to trade. A trader following Minervini’s methodology would look for specific technical setups, such as tight price consolidation, relative strength, and trading volume, among other factors, before entering a trade.
It's also important to consider that the heatmap shows past performance, which is not always indicative of future results. Each potential trade should be evaluated in the context of current market conditions, news, and comprehensive technical analysis.
Opening (IRA): QQQ April 19th 405 Monied Covered Call... for a 397.94 debit.
Comments: Re-establishing here in the Q's with a +25 delta monied covered call to take advantage of call side skew.
Will look to add at intervals, dispersing risk across expiries, and generally take profit at 50% max and/or roll out the short call on test.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 7.06 ($706)
ROC %-age at Max/50% Max: 1.77% at max; .89 at 50% max
Break Even/Cost Basis: 397.94
Delta/Theta: 25.42/11.42
QQQ 440 level why it reached 439.23 is there a 5th 5 wave =444 ?The chart posted shows the math as to why we reached the area of 440 so far the high is within .77 cents 439.23 so far was the peak .Can we reach the upper target of 444.1 .Well so far we have dropped in a 3 wave and are near the BB bands and .382 of wave 3 . and the 4 hr channel This is why I have taken a long side again .
$QQQ Tomorrow’s Trading Range for 2.21, Fed minutes, $NVDA earnNASDAQ:QQQ Tomorrow’s Trading Range for 2.21, Fed minutes, NASDAQ:NVDA earnings
Tomorrow’s trading range is wider than normal because we have FED minutes at 2pm and NVDA earnings in after hours.
We have a cool range tomorrow 30min 200MA with a bear gap to the upside, 1hre 200MA and a bull gap to the downside… LOL.
Come check out the video for a full walkthrough but I’m excited to see how tomorrow plays out. GL
QQQ confirmed daily lower highOn Friday QQQ set daily lower high, marking potential trend reversal. Now bears must lead price all the way down (below 425.3) to start weekly consolidation. If this doesn't happen fast and bulls manage to set daily higher low then uptrend continuation is still an option.
Also notable that bulls were able to close price gap from Tuesday, and bull wave retracement is over 50%. This talks in favor of bulls strength and increases probability of daily higher low.
Hourly price action is currently in downtrend but given the context I would be looking for hourly trend reversal signals
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
NASDAQ-100 and QQQ facing correction?We have been seeing a massive rally led by tech since last 2023 continuing in 2024. Personally I was expecting a major pullback in the first weeks of 2024 but it was just a very small one.
Earnings continue to be decent, but in many sectors is getting disappointing and we have to remember that the tech heavy ETF and the index is basically NVIDIA, and some other semiconductor hype based on AI and the potential for transformation.
Technical data points to another small pullback but Wednesday-post market(NVIDIA earnings) will determine how deep this pullback is, based on investor sentiment on the current semiconductor industry and AI prospects of impact.
QQQ Weekly Wave Prediction + Chart PatternQQQ weekly chart now has an intention to complete wave 5 and then have an a-b-c correction wave. The large weekly chart pattern is a rising wedge and it has the potential to make a head and shoulder pattern with a bullish trape (if wave a is long enough to reach the neck price line). Ideally the first half of 2024 would be in a downturn, let's short and get rich!