QQQ at a Pivotal Zone! Bounce or More Downside?📊 Technical Analysis (TA):
1. Trend & Structure:
* QQQ is in a clear downtrend, confirmed by multiple Break of Structure (BOS) signals.
* A recent Change of Character (ChoCH) attempt suggests a potential short-term reversal, but confirmation is needed.
* Key Resistance: ~520-530 (supply zone)
* Support Zone: ~490-495 (current demand area)
2. Indicators Suggesting a Possible Reversal:
* MACD: Beginning to flatten, indicating potential momentum shift.
* Stochastic RSI: Deeply oversold, increasing the probability of a short-term relief rally.
* Volume Spike: Heavy volume at support, suggesting potential accumulation.
🔹 GEX & Options Flow:
1. Call Walls (Resistance) 🚧
* 530-535: Strong resistance, likely to reject price if tested.
* 540: 2nd Call Wall, major gamma resistance.
2. Put Walls (Support) 🛑
* 490: Highest negative NETGEX, meaning a breakdown could trigger heavy selling pressure.
* 475-460: Next major support levels if 490 fails.
3. IV Rank & Skew:
* IVR 46.1, indicating mid-range implied volatility.
* Puts dominate at 61.4%, signaling bearish sentiment.
* Implied move ±0.39%, suggesting a volatile session ahead.
📌 Trading Plan & Suggestions:
* Bullish Reversal Scenario:
* If QQQ holds 490-495, we could see a bounce toward 510-520.
* Ideal trade: April 500C or 510C, targeting a relief rally.
* Bearish Breakdown Scenario:
* If QQQ loses 490, downside targets extend to 475-460.
* Ideal Put Play: Buy March-April 490P or 480P, targeting 470-460.
⚠️ Key Warning: If QQQ does not reclaim 500 quickly, expect continued selling pressure.
🔥 Conclusion: QQQ at a Decision Point – Relief Rally or Breakdown?
The Nasdaq ETF is testing a key support level, with early reversal signals forming but heavy put positioning remaining. The next sessions will determine whether buyers defend this zone or we see a deeper correction. Watch 490-495 closely for price action confirmation! 🚀📉
🚨 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
