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ISHARES SILVER TRUST

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SLV trade ideas

SLV Three Week Test of High - FailAs suggested a couple of weeks back, a three week test of the high (on the closing basis) tested and failed. On an interday view, I was looking for a possible high of 16.65. We got up to 16.60 and fell from there. I took the opportunity to sell off some of the in-the-money Jan 2021 calls, as if this setup proves correct, no telling how low prices might go. That is, if they go down at all. I was surprised that we weren't able to get any sell in the past couple of weeks. We had one day (Monday) when we opened down somewhat sharply. I took the opportunity to sell some Puts. Opening positions as I thought that we might go down to at least 15.50 but that proved to be the only opportunity for the week to establish short puts. As I mentioned in my last comments, this has been rather unusual as we had seldom had opportunities to sell calls. The physicals have become more available and the premiums are coming down a bit Heard also that the Fed had been bringing down the balance sheet some. The panic bid in metals appears to have disappeared so let's see if we get back to the normal game of big smack downs to cover shorts and replenish LEAPs.
AMEX:SLVShort
by Glewis54
SLV Weekly ThoughtsLooking ahead, not certain where we are in the Wave formation. Did we just complete a wave 1 of a new bull phase? Or a Wave B of a correction? Only time will tell. We can see the two previous tops. My automatic expectation going forward is something similar to the yellow circle where we see what has been a typical three week testing of the high. The closing high was tested three weeks later and then the following bar illustrated a testing of the three week inter-week high before reversing. We see a similar setup in this past week where we made an inter-week higher high but closed lower. The next week was down and I anticipate that the next week will also be down, followed by a rally the following week to test the closing high. Then if we meander sideways, could be a wave 2 of a new impulse move higher. In this setup, I see prices perhaps dropping to the 10 week average around 15, which is also a .328 retracement of the entire move up. This would then be followed in coming weeks by an up move running to 16.66 to 17 and change. Failure there would result in lower prices. The blue circle shows something different featuring a Key Reversal setup. This does not reflect last week's price action. We can see how that played out, rather badly. While I had early on expecting that another wave down to the 10-12 level might be possible, I can also see that we might have already gone through a well defined A-B-C correction with the A and C tops defined in the circles. If we are still in a corrective mode, we might see a dramatic selloff, erasing much of the big gains we saw from the lows. I have a number of short calls set for June 19th and 26 in anticipation of a June monthly test of the low. Not too much of the traditional stuff that I have used for decades appears to be working anymore. But thinking that we are due for PMs to get crunched again, I am at the ready. Not always right but I don't mind playing with the "paper." It's like playing Monopoly to me. The real worth is in the physicals. My cycle review of stocks shows that while we are at the highest levels of momentum and overbought I have ever seen, it appears that the markets will continue higher. I would expect PMs to take that queue and continue selling off. That will be good as I had exited WPM, AG, FNV and other PM-related stocks a bit early and would like to pick a spot to reenter. But we still remain very overbought on these issues so it could be a while before they are again in buy areas. Who knows anymore? Markets continue to astound on unreal fiscal stimulus. Another $ trillion is expected to boost the markets. With that in mind, it’s good to continue stacking as supply comes available. Hopefully the premiums will simmer down some. I continue to buy physicals even at the higher prices as I want to convert the fiat as much as possible. Does it really matter what price you pay when considering that the fiat has no value? As more and more money is created, it can only continue to be devalued, whether this is reflected in the current market prices or not, it is still the reality. Enjoy your weekend.
AMEX:SLV
by Glewis54