Semi's attempting to break through resistance,what does it mean?The Semiconductor ETF SMH is meeting resistance here @ 260. The last several times the SMH index ETF met this trend resistance has resulted in a push to lower lows. Could this time be different? The MFI (Money Flow Index) seems to be suggesting it is a possibility. Although SMH is riding a downtrend, SMH price volume momentum is in overbought territory. A SMH break and close above 260 on a daily basis would end the SMH down turn. The next important area to watch would be 266. 266 is where major resistance resides. This is evidenced by the significant battle between bulls and bears previously waged there noted in Volume @ Price. The last time @ 266, the bears got the better of the SMH bulls. However, this SMH MFI is trending higher as opposed to lower. This is a canary in the coal mine to watch as this battle could have repercussions as to the future direction of the broad market trend and ensuing market leadership.
SMH trade ideas
A little more pain ahead for SemisLooking for a fill of the gap at 232 which coincides with the 2.0 extension of this 5-wave move down. Head & Shoulders pattern with negative MACD divergence.
Closed: SMH April 14th 20/290 Short Strangle... for a 4.29 credit.
Comments: Received a 5.90 credit for putting this on 6 days ago. (See Post Below). Taking 1.61 ($161) of profit here -- 27% of max with 35 days to go.
Opening: SMH April 14th 210/290 Short Strangle... for a 5.90 credit.
Comments: High IVR/high IV (96/48.5). Selling the 15 delta-ish strikes on both sides; 5.90 credit on buying power effect of 25.37 (on margin); 23.3% ROC at max; 11.6% at 50% max.
$SMH: Run 'Em AgainSemiconductors potentially looking at another leg higher likely to benefit in different types of markets. Names like ACLS, MXL, MRVL and others pushing to new highs
The sparrow may be small but its vital organs are thereRead news here , about this ETF here and here
This is a Chinese idioms -
má què suī xiǎo , wǔ zàng jù quán
Many finished goods like mobile phones to automobiles looks sleek,elegant and nice from the outside. But like the sparrow, the chips though small contain all the vital organs that drives the function of the mobile phones and the cars. Without it , it is useless. And the article above clearly shows us the global demand for it will only INCREASE over time.
For more than a decade since year 2001, this ETF was hoovering under sub 50 dollars price level. It was only in Jan 2015 that it finally breaks out of 50 dollars and the last 6 years has been nothing but spectacular performance. If you had bought it at 50 dollars and hold this ETF till now, you would have made nearly 5x the returns.
But had you not, fret not, here is another buying opportunity for you. A bullish engulfing candle and a breakout of the resistance at 243 price level would be a good entry point.
$qqq and $smh Pretty much the same chart What is the outcome?Will it be options A - Head & Shoulder Top, Option B - Bear flag or Option C - Non of the above
#SMH and all semi plays#SMH is seeing increased bullish volume ( blueish nodes ) compared to bearish volume ( orange nodes ) on the volume profile sitting on a great spot ontop of a volume shelf with plenty of room to push to the top side if we can keep this trend so far don't dive into plays in current market ease into them to manage your risk as best as possible
$SMH Bear Flag, Dip & RipSMH has sold off through the median of the pitchfork with more volume than the uptrend (Oct 21 to Nov 21). There is a likelyhood that we are doing "as above, so below" pattern where the price rejects the upper channel, supply exhausts, then comes back down to mirror down below to look for demand.
As of now SMH is hammering near the outer channel. I'll be looking for a low volume bear flag where bulls try to drive the price up just beyond the gap fill. Shortly after it'll be key to watch the bears step in and drive price down to 252.
After a bit of accumulation, should we continue to stay in this trend (since COVID) I can see the price quickly moving back to the median shortly after options expiration in Feb.
$SMH demand zoneIn a demand zone, near the 200d ma at 270. Looking for a bounce around there. Calls above 282 for confirmation of a shift in trend. With $TSM ER beat 2 weeks ago and $INTC/$TXN/$LRCX/$XLNX ER runup this week, could be a catalyst for a bounce at these levels. Inverted hammer not looking so pretty though.
SMH - Hard Short(Opinion Only)
Could be direct move or take a few days, not advice. Just my interpretation of the chart.
SMH/SPYSMH has handedly outperformed the SPY since 2018 but has stalled recently
If SMH cannot continue to outperform SPY in 2022 it will be ugly for tech/growth
SMH/SPYSemiconductors have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 since 2015
Semiconductors are today's transports
$SMH Semis Breakout RetestSMH Breakout Retest of 313, needs confirmation . Failure expect a move back in the box to the 300 zone.
Given the bullish seasonality and technical confluence (MACD cross and RSI uptick), bias is to the upside with $325 and $332 price targets.
I'm long JAN $315 Calls, 30% stop.
Semicondoctuctors are the "Transports of the 21st century"Bespoke Research firm says "Prior to the digital revolution that began in the 1990s, the Dow Transports were viewed as a “leading” indicator for the broader stock market. In the digital age, there’s hardly an industry group that doesn’t rely on semiconductors in one way or another. A modern car can easily have more than 3,000 chips. We view the semiconductor group as the “Transports of the 21st century,” making the price action for semis important to monitor."
I agree and will be monitoring the SMH/SPY
SMH.............................................
here's SMH for personal notes but if you're seeing this too you're welcome to comment or share your thoughts ^^
A Short Semi Window on SMHBreakdown is anything south of 273.89
Question is what saves it - historically 14SMA on weekly has captured it but this has broken down in May 2021. Instead the 30SMA on weekly have been the saver so that would be the clincher.
If I was a shorting man - 273.89 is the trigger- then down to 14SMA at 279.57, then 269.72 as next resistance and then finally 30SMA at 266.06. I can see a breakdown but not a major one given the strategic value of Semi at the moment, which is unchanged
Semis leading the way for tech Semiconductors are typically a leading sector for tech. We have a very clear breakout and a extremely bullish trend. I expect QQQ to follow as well
SMH Rolling OverCurrently in the Chop zone and likely to continue
300 for the bears to take over, 310 for Bulls to take over. Bias is to the downside with supply issues clogging up the system
SMHSMH. Potential for a wave 5 continuation. Possible reversal points marked using two methods. 1st - Extended 3rd wave tells me that wave 5 may have a similar run to wave 1. 2nd- Distance travelled through waves 1-3 multiplied by .618. That's the proper way to use the fib on an impulse wave. You don't just measure out directional pulls and expect it to bounce somewhere. That's gambling. It may be a close 50/50, but those odds aren't good enough for me.
SMH Doji Star. Chip Sector pullbackChip sector led to a massive rally in the NDX...
The biggest holdings in this sector are
1.NVDA
2.ASML
3.AMD.
4.TSM
5.Qcom
6.INTC
With the exception of INTC all these stocks are overbought on every indicator.
A pullback is to be expected from this sector but I would like to see if this channel breakout is the real or Faux
SMH ShortShort on the 4H time frame, momentum is decreasing, gap below, resistance just above, stop above recent pivot. Not investment advice.
