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SMH trade ideas

SMH: Ain't over till its overThis is a follow-up on my Mar 9 post on NASDAQ:NVDA and I feel using the NASDAQ:SMH would explain overall market picture better. I struggled with how to frame this post as it is a combination of zooming into lower fractals and zooming out to higher fractals and hope this weekly chart helps. In the immediate short-term, markets are oversold and you can spot the ABCD down completions in the 30M fractal. This is likely to be a short-term bounce into week end, month end to test 30M overhead neckline resistance. In the weekly and daily chart, the overhead neckline resistance can be seen as the white dotted overhead resistance (representing extreme price volume action). Big picture wise, there are multiple ABCD completions for the SMH and its key component stocks which implies we should look at the Nov'21 to Oct'22 downturn guide the downside projection. This would imply a downside projection to c.$164 with the $224 level as an invalidation level.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by WellTrainedMonkey
Opened (IRA): SMH May 17th 198 Monied Covered Call... for a 192.24 debit. Comments: Opened this in late Friday's session as it floated to the top of my IV screener with IVR/IV at 106/39. Sold the -75 delta call against 100 delta of long stock, with a resulting cost basis of 192.24/share. This is to emulate a 25 delta short put and to take advantage of call side IV skew while having "built-in" position defense via the short call. Will look to add at intervals, assuming IVR/IV remains high, generally taking profit at 50% max and defending via roll out of the short call. Metrics: BPE/Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares: 192.24 Max Profit: 5.76 ($576) ROC at Max: 3.00% ROC at 50% Max: 1.50% Variants: Short Put: May 19th 200 Short Put, 4.65 at the mid, 195.35 (cash secured), 25.70 (on margin). 2.38% ROC at max, 1.19% at 50% max for cash secured; 18.09% ROC at max, 9.05% at 50% max on margin (which is why you stick with the short put on margin; it's more BP efficient). Synthetic Short Put: May 19th 110/200 Short Put Vertical, 4.50 at the mid, 85.50 (cash secured), paying .15 to bring in BPE by more than half, 5.26 ROC at max, 2.63% at 50% max. This would only make sense in a cash secured environment from a BP efficiency standpoint; the naked short put remains more BP efficient on margin than either the covered call or the "synthetic naked short put" spread. Standard Short Put Vertical: May 19th 190/200 Short Put Vertical, 2.03 at the mid on BPE of 7.97 (both cash secured and on margin), 25.57% ROC at Max; 12.74% ROC at 50% max.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
SMH breaks above its updward, reversal likelySMH has gone on a wonderful tear the last year and has recently showing signs that it is way overbought and due for a correction. From a 1W period we see that SMH has broken above year long upward trend. This is a first for SMH to do over the last year The ETF has gone through some notable contractions like from Aug - Oct of 2023. This occured without breaking above the trend. RSI 20 is now also for the first time showing that it has reached above 70 in over a year. We should expect a decent contraction or elongated pull back in time to correct fore this over purchasing it went through. Tighten your stop losses to protect against downside risk.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by ratchet-mint
Opened: SMH March 15th 169/175/199/205 Iron Condor... for a 2.07 credit. Comments: 30-day IV at 27.8%. (Higher would be better, but you can't have everything). Collecting 1/3rd of the width of the wings in credit. 2.07 credit on BPE of 3.93; 52.7% ROC at max; 26.3% at 50% max. As usual, will generally look to take profit at 50% max; adjust sides on side test. This is probably my last trade in the March monthly, since 45 DTE is kind of the wheelhouse for this stuff, and the March monthly is at 43 DTE. I'll mostly hand sit from here until month end, with most of the trades being adjustments.
NASDAQ:SMH
by NaughtyPines
2
Opening (IRA): SMH March 15th 176 Monied Covered Call... for a 172.42 debit. Comments: While I'm waiting for a July contract to open up in broad market instruments (IWM, QQQ, SPY), shopping around the ETF space for premium. Relative to broad market, SMH IV isn't horrible (the 30-day is currently at 29.3%). Selling the -75 delta call against long stock, to emulate a 25 delta short put and to take advantage of call IV skew (32.9% on the call side; 27.2% on the put). 3.58 max on BPE of 172.42; 2.08% at max; 1.04% at 50% max. Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out the short call to reduce cost basis further if it doesn't get there.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
Parking some funds into this ETF - SMHIf we take a step back and plot the weekly chart of SMH, there lies a possibility that we may have a ABC pattern playing out in the weeks/months to come. We are not out of the descending channel yet (a bullish sign) and it could also notch another level down as well (can't rule this out though I think is quite remote), so those who have yet to go LONG can wait for the breakout, establish bullish signals on smaller time frame and decide if you should add this to your portfolio.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by dchua1969
1
SMH to $191 Anchored in 2018 FibThis is a very long-term view of SMH. You can see the FIB that is in play which is anchored at $41 in December of 2018. We ran up all the way to just about $160 in December of 2021. We had a hard pullback to $84 and did a fast turn around, again to $160, in July of 2023. We retraced almost perfectly to the 50% of that move to $136 and we are now in the uptrend of that move, which we hit that .272 extension of at $166. We pulled back and are now heading for the 272 extension at $190, anchored way back in 2018. We may get there pretty quick and I would not be surprised if we peak out over the top of the channel to do it. What do you think?
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by novamatic
1
$SMH Cup & Handle PatternWait for a pull back to the blue trend line before buying. A close below and the pattern fails. Best moves come from failed moves. Cup & Handle Pattern The NASDAQ:SMH (Semiconductor ETF) is exhibiting a Cup & Handle pattern in technical analysis. This bullish continuation pattern involves a rounded bottom (cup) followed by a consolidation period (handle). Investors often anticipate an upward breakout after the handle formation, suggesting potential positive price movement in semiconductor stocks.
NASDAQ:SMH
by AlgoTradeAlert
$SMH Looking for Gap Fill?The semiconductor sector has been on fire since bottoming out at the end of October. In fact, the low to the high in November was just over 21%! Some consolidation of those gains would be healthy. I am looking for the NASDAQ:SMH ETF to fill the gap from Nov 14th. I am not predicting that it will however, I am thinking that is a good possibility. I have an alert set just above the gap fill. If that triggers, I will be looking for a reversal back up for a long entry. All TBD. NASDAQ:SOXX is a similar ETF with a similar pattern so whichever one you prefer I think is worth putting on a watchlist. I ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by jaxdog
SMH ELLIOT WAVE STRUCTURE WAVE 5 of 3 ended165.5The chart posted can now be posted and the ew labeling we have now ended or will end wave 5 of 5 of wave 3 top and begin a sharp drop in thr sox and smh back down for a week or more in wave 4 of 5 of 5 then The last wave up will end the rally from oct 13 th 2022 in super cycle degree and we will then see a drop back to .382 to 50 % from 2009 once more in wave A of the super cycle bear POINT for reference see 1998 to 2000 Internet BUBBLE A.I Bubble
NASDAQ:SMH
by wavetimer