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SMH trade ideas

SMH - It's not as bad as you think.....SMH closed today at 234.30, above the Ichimoku Cloud and well above the downtrend channel set from 2022 high to low (grey shaded area). SMH has clearly broken out of this channel, has successfully retested. I see next low at 232.40, which is a Gann confluence line, and then a move back upwards (point D). The reason I see a bounce is that the RSI is approaching oversold on the daily at the confluence line. Have we broken the bear downtrend? Looks like it to me. In order to resume the bear trend, we would at least need to drop at least to 175 (another Gann Confluence line), which would only take us to approximately the top of the down channel. That would be a 25.6% drop from today's close. If we want to continue the bear trend, then we would need to take out 166.97, the October low, which would be a 28.7% decline from today's close. Is it possible that we drop another 25 - 28% from here? Of course, anything is possible. However, I don't see it as probable, unless there is a BLACK SWAN event, which no one can predict in any event (by definition). I know that many semi companies have laid off employees, and taken their pill. So future earnings reports may exceed expectations, although product demand remains an uncertainty. But I don't see a 25% drop from here in Semis on organics alone.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by UnknownUnicorn13101
Opening (IRA): SMH Feb/March 170/154 Short Put LadderComments: My broad market positions are getting a little crowded and busy, so deploying some buying power into some sector ETF's, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. 30-day isn't bad here at 36.3%, but this isn't exactly as weak as it has been, so it's possible that a better entry could be had. Because of that, I'll look to potentially add should better opportunities present themselves. The goal here is to collect premium and/or to reduce cost basis in shares that you might be eventually assigned and not necessarily to get ideal entries; there is, after all, some "slop"/room to be wrong with these. That being said, being patient and getting paid something decent for a lower strike is always a good thing, since a lower strike means a smaller buying power effect. February 17th 170: 1.74 credit March 17th 154: 1.54 credit
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
VOLUME FLOW: SEMI'S ($SMH) AGAINST THE BROADER MARKET ($SPY)VOLUME FLOW INDEX: Both $SPY (broader market) and $SMH (semi-conductor industry) are currently in a neutral trend as measured by their 13 Day EMA envelope (top box). Both are also residing in similar places within their longer term downward trends. It is only when we take a look at volume as measured by the Volume Flow Index (VFI) that we can uncover some relative differences that could prove meaningful in the near term. Volume has yet to breach zero line (white horizontal histogram) to the upside in broader market ($SPY, see left lower box). Volume has breached the zero line in the semi-conductor sector($SMH, see lower right box), as illustrated by the yellow vertical line. This would indicate good 'force' behind the recent semi-conductor rally as measured by 'volume follow through' which I would consider a measure of 'conviction'. This could be indicative of a near term preference for the semi's amidst an overall run to defensives in the broader market OR it could just be that semi's are a little bit stickier than the rest of 'growth' and still have some downside wood to chop. Given the semi's association with 'Growth' this divergent volume trend seemed counter-intuitive to the prevailing narrative so I thought I would share. (Not financial advice)
NASDAQ:SMH
by The_Firewalker
Rectangle TopAlso a Head and Shoulders pattern with a "wide" head. Bad tops come in all different shapes and sizes and is why I just call them "ugly tops" sometimes. The similarity between top patterns is price hits a certain level and can NOT break the high. Rectangles are easy to measure as it will most often break up or down the width of that rectangle and you need only find the resistance and support lines of the rectangle. A rectangle needs 5 touches of the 2 trendlines. An Ugly top or Head and Shoulders top is easy to see for me, but the neckline can be tricky to see. The neckline is support until broken and often you will see a struggle for price to stay above it with small dips below it. The shoulders should be close to equidistant from the head and somewhat close in price when compared to each other, but very rarely exact. Once the neckline is broken, you should see resistance there if you chose the right level. No recommendation. Targets possible are below price in orange type with possible targets 1 in larger type. Targets 2 are in smaller type in case possible T1 are passed.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by lauralea
4
SMH: A POTENTIAL DEAD CAT BOUNCEDuring this Semiconductor ETF's rise to the top, price retested the high 220s and low 230s zone multiple times. This price range acted as a zone of support (marked by the green box). Since august of 2022, SMH price action has struggled to rise above this zone, turning this zone into resistance (marked by the red box). Additionally, SMH's downfall (beginning early 2022) has respected the blue downward trendline. We observed a break of the trendline in November of 2022. If price respects the trendline, we will see a bounce to the upside. If price returns to the red box zone (around low 230s), look for a reversal to occur consistent with the previous price rejections at this range.
NASDAQ:SMH
by jasongoldman1