SPY The Final PushMarkets have been extremely volatile this summer with the anticipation of a rate cut swiftly approaching in September. Futures markets are currently predicting a 99% probability of a cut in September.
Historically, markets do not tend to crash during election years, however the combination of rate cuts, global tensions, inflation, employment, and many more factors may change the outcome of what is to come.
At the moment, the markets have made a large move to the downside into a previous support zone. Additionally, I am seeing absorption on the CVD, potentially suggestion weak hands are selling into the hands of the bigger players. There could be some room for the market to get a bounce here.
We do have several gaps left behind us on the way up where major liquidity is sitting. An SFP swing failure pattern of the all time high, would be a critical area if we make it that far.
A bounce here may provide us some temporary upside before the eventual selling of the news of rate cuts. I am looking to hedge myself against a larger drop going into September.
Only time will tell,
Good luck!
