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SPY EOY AnalysisAs we approach the end of the year, the SPY (S&P 500 ETF Trust) appears to be trading within defined expected ranges, according to the provided data. This week-by-week analysis is particularly useful for traders and investors looking to optimize their risk management strategies and position sizing. Here’s an overview of key metrics and their importance: The **Kelly Ratio** is a widely-used formula to determine the optimal portion of capital to allocate to each trade. This ratio is especially valuable for traders looking to strike the right balance between risk and reward. For example, in the current week (Week 42), the Kelly ratio of 0.3068 indicates that about 30% of available capital could be allocated to this position, assuming optimal risk management based on expected returns. By examining this ratio weekly, investors can adjust their exposure depending on how favorable market conditions are. A higher Kelly ratio indicates better opportunities, while a lower ratio calls for a more conservative approach. The **Adjusted Kelly Fraction** is a fine-tuned version of the Kelly ratio that takes into account additional constraints like risk tolerance or market liquidity. In the current week, this fraction is 0.1767, which is more conservative than the Kelly ratio, suggesting that adjustments for risk aversion or other factors have been made. Tracking this weekly allows investors to stay flexible and manage risk more effectively, adapting to changing market conditions. The **Tail Ratio** measures the likelihood of extreme market movements. For Week 42, the tail ratio is 0.79, suggesting that the chances of a large, unexpected price movement are somewhat contained. A low tail ratio signals that the market might experience higher volatility or extreme price swings, and tracking this metric over time helps identify when market stability or instability might occur. **Volatility** (%) is another critical factor, indicating the magnitude of price swings within each week. In the current analysis, volatility fluctuates between 2.16% and 3.38% in the weeks ahead. Higher volatility indicates greater price fluctuations, which might present opportunities for traders using strategies that profit from large movements, such as straddles or strangles. Lower volatility suggests a more stable market, ideal for time-decay strategies like credit spreads. **Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR)** is a risk management tool that estimates potential losses during extreme market conditions. For Week 42, the CVaR is -4.12%, indicating potential losses in worst-case scenarios. CVaR helps in preparing for unfavorable outcomes, especially during weeks with higher anticipated risks, ensuring that your strategy accounts for rare but impactful events. Finally, the **Expected Minimum and Maximum Prices** for each week give you a clear sense of the anticipated trading range. In Week 42, the expected minimum price is $555.49, and the maximum is $608.63, suggesting a relatively stable range. Strategies like iron condors or butterflies, which benefit from price staying within a certain range, would thrive in such conditions. Weeks with a broader range might offer opportunities for breakout trades or more aggressive directional strategies. Looking further ahead, Week 49 stands out due to a sharp negative position size (-269.59) and a drawdown of 0.93%. This week warrants caution, as it signals the potential for more significant downside risk, though subsequent weeks like Week 50 show a return to more stable expected ranges. Overall, SPY’s end-of-year outlook suggests that the market will largely remain within predictable bounds, though periods of increased volatility could arise. Investors and traders should stay vigilant, using tools like the Kelly ratio, tail ratio, and CVaR to manage risk while capitalizing on available opportunities. Maintaining a disciplined approach to position sizing and risk exposure, while adapting strategies based on weekly volatility and price range expectations, will be key to navigating the remainder of the year. **Disclaimer**: The following analysis is based solely on the provided data and is for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice, and any investment decisions should be made after thorough research and consultation with a financial advisor.
AMEX:SPY
by livingdracula
1
SPY Loosing Momentum ! SPYLOVERS DONT PANIC ! Its OKAfter several weeks of analysis, the price reached its all-time highs twice, creating a new extreme. Att his moment is what i call in a no man's land zone. But what do I see in the overall structure? If you can clearly identify the yellow upward channel, I want you to split it in half, and we will analyze the two parts. In the first half, we have an active price movement, with clear fluctuations between support and resistance. The high volatility causes the price to move in waves, perfectly respecting support and resistance. But if you can manage to identify the second half, up until the end of the channel, you'll see that the price shows signs of exhaustion. Exhaustion, how? When the price stops having that volatility everyone is looking for, and begins to slow down and starts moving like a worm along the edge of the channel’s support, showing small candles and, above all, losing momentum. (In the chart, I want you to identify the price exhaustion by marking it with a small symbol of a worm crawling along the channel's support.) This type of behavior happens frequently when the price is losing momentum. In this type of scenario, I am more than certain that we will soon see a move where the price might break out of the yellow channel. Most likely, we will see the price make its natural retracement. After achieving two all-time highs, I believe it's time for the price to take a break, either to consolidate or make a quick decision. Nevertheless, I am expecting the price to make its natural pullback in the coming week. We’ll see if it happens. Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
AMEX:SPY
by RocketMike111
Reaching the top on Elliott Impulse WaveThe potential upside for SPY could be around 1% to 2.5%, pushing it to the 590-600 range. However, with the market in overbought territory, signs of an ABC correction are starting to emerge. This correction could lead to a 5% to 10% decline, potentially stretching into the next year. Despite two years of strong bull market gains, we haven't seen a significant correction, which feels overdue, particularly with the euphoria around AI investments. While I hesitate to call it a "bubble," it's not on the same scale as the dot-com bubble, as many of the companies leading in AI are established tech giants rather than startups. However, it's still unclear how much revenue these companies will generate from AI in the short term, though Meta is already seeing some returns, while others are likely to see results in two to three years. A further risk could stem from geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, which are closer to war than ever. If conflict escalates, Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil traffic. This would drive oil prices higher, pushing inflation up and potentially leading the Fed to raise interest rates. As of now, the market hasn't even priced in the possibility of a limited or retaliatory strike from Israel, which seems increasingly likely. Lastly, I don't believe this will mark the end of the bull run or push SPY into bear market territory, as there are still solid data points supporting the economy. Hopefully, a small correction occurs, which would be healthy, and we avoid any major geopolitical fallout.
AMEX:SPYShort
by JerryDaniel
SPY Short: A look at Elliott Wave Counts and Fibonacci ExtensionBased on yesterday’s move where SPY opened with a new high, I have did a slight modification to the wave count such that I merged the previous wave 3 and wave 4 to become a single wave 3. Note that I do not really like this kind of action and shows bias on my end for preferred wave count. In order to do this, I will have to restudy Fibonacci relationships to ascertain whether it can be done. Back to this idea itself. As you can see, I’ve started the cycle wave 5 from 5th Aug 2024 low, and plotted 3 degrees of wave counts: Highest Intermediate Blue Wave Middle Minor Green Wave Lowest Minute Purple Wave All the waves counts end at the same place: yesterday’s (17th Oct 2024 session) opening high. I’ve drawn 2 Fibonacci extension levels: 1. Green Fibonacci Level which is internal to Minor Wave 5: Extend Minute Wave 1 against the entire Minor Wave 5 Structure. 2. Purple Fibonacci Level which is a measure of Intermediate Wave 1 against Intermediate Wave 5. Both Fibonacci levels shows convergence around 586.5 vs the opening high of 586.12. I am willing to accept this for a study of pre-opening shows that futures and CFDs was actually higher than our opening high, meaning target was hit during pre-market. This is an important concept that an Elliott Waver must remember: the importance of movement of prices outside of regular trading hours (RTH) must be taken into consideration when counting waves and expecting targets.
AMEX:SPYShort
by yuchaosng
2
SPY Technical Analysis for October 18, 2024Current Market Structure From the 1-hour chart, SPY is sitting in an interesting zone with several key levels to watch for tomorrow's trading session: Support Levels: 582.30: Immediate support, where SPY may try to stabilize. 578.53: Stronger support, previously tested as both resistance and support. Resistance Levels: 585.28: Immediate resistance overhead. If SPY breaks this, expect bullish continuation. 586.30: The next resistance level to monitor, potentially marking the upper boundary of the trend. Trendlines: SPY is still within an ascending channel, and the lower trendline (starting around October 11) is providing consistent support for price action. As long as it stays above this trendline, the bullish structure is intact. Indicators & Volume Insights Volume: We’ve seen volume decline slightly towards the close, which could mean consolidation before the next move. Momentum Indicator: There’s a slight uptick in the oscillators, indicating a potential reversal or continuation to the upside. Keep an eye on momentum overnight. Potential Scenarios for Tomorrow: Bullish Case: If SPY holds above 582.30 and breaks 585.28, we could see a run toward 586.30 and possibly beyond. Bearish Case: A break below 582.30 may trigger selling pressure, with 578.53 being the key support level to monitor for further downside. ____________________________________ Why Some Traders Profit While Others Struggle with the Same TA Even with identical technical analysis, traders experience different outcomes. Here are a few common reasons: Discipline & Emotions: Many traders fail to follow their trading plan or let emotions (fear and greed) interfere. Risk Management: Profitable traders use proper position sizing and stop losses, while others risk too much on single trades. Execution: Timing is critical—delays or hesitation can lead to missed or poorly executed entries. Adaptability: Markets change rapidly, and rigid traders who can’t adapt often miss out, while others thrive by adjusting their strategies. If you find yourself struggling despite using solid TA, focus on building discipline, refining your execution, and maintaining good risk management practices. Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Feel free to PM me if you have any questions or need further clarification. Happy trading! 📊🚀
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY Technical Analysis – October 17, 2024Current Price Overview: Recent High: 586.30 Major Support Level: 581.50 Previous Low: 578.96 Key Observations: Trendlines & Price Action: The price has retraced sharply after an earlier rally to 586.30, indicating a pullback phase. It is now sitting near the 583.57 level, testing a short-term upward trendline as support. If the support at 581.50 holds, the price may consolidate before another push upwards. However, if it breaks down, a retest of 580.49 or even the 578.96 low is possible. Volume Analysis: There is a spike in selling volume during the recent pullback, suggesting short-term profit-taking or a shift in sentiment. Monitor if buying volume increases on a bounce from 581.50, as that will indicate buyers stepping in to defend support. MACD Indicator: The MACD lines are crossing upwards from a recent bearish dip, showing early signs of momentum shifting back to the upside. A clean break above zero on the MACD histogram would confirm bullish momentum for the day. Scenario Analysis for End of Day: Bullish Case: If SPY holds above the 581.50 support and reclaims 585.28, a late-day rally toward 586.30 or even higher is possible. A close above 585 would signal that buyers are regaining control. Bearish Case: If 581.50 fails, expect a deeper pullback toward 580.49 or 578.96. A close below 581 would reflect continued selling pressure and bearish sentiment into tomorrow’s session. Trading Strategy: Long Setup: Enter long if the price holds 581.50 and reclaims 585.28 with volume, targeting 586.30. Use 581.00 as a stop-loss for risk management. Short Setup: Consider shorting if SPY breaks 581.50, with a target near 580.49 or 578.96. Use 583.50 as a stop to protect the trade. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own research and consult with a professional before making any trading decisions. Trading involves risks, and you may lose more than your initial investment.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-17 : CarryOver In CarryOver ModeGood morning, Great to see the ES/NQ rallying higher this morning - in perfect alignment with my SPY Cycle Patterns & predictions. Gold & Silver are also moving slightly higher - but remember My Gold patterns suggest Gold & Silver will consolidate a bit in early trading today. BTCUSD is a really interesting chart, in my opinion. The multiple Excess Phase Peak patterns are playing into a potentially very large downward price move. Pay attention to all of the content in this video today because we are moving into the end of this week - which means we need to prepare for the volatility that starts next week. As I keep suggesting to everyone, trading is about attempting to time the best opportunities for success. Knowing when something may happen that creates an opportunity, setting your risk levels, and going for it. I wish I could tell you, "Trading is like picking red or black". It's not. Trader's have to develop almost a 6th sense to be able to see and visualize what is most likely to happen in the future. My tools help me see into the future a bit, but a lot of my analysis comes from within my head. Anyway, the best way for you to learn these skills is from someone who can mentor you and show you what they are seeing on the chart. Teaching you the skills to improve your own abilities to make better decisions. That is what I'm doing. Over time, you will learn to use these techniques to make better decisions and become a better trader (at least that is my objective). Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for 10.17.24 AMEX:SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for 10.17.24 - Tomorrow’s Implied move is between 578 and 586 and that is from options. The 30 day average volatility is between 577 and 588 and that also lines up with the implied move on Fridays contract - and that’s the strike I’ll be looking to if we pop to sell bear call spreads. -To the upside we have ATH’s at 585.27. I’m guessing that if NYSE:TSM earnings come in great and we see a move up there then ATH’s will be the Target on the day. But if not, then the 35EMA is just underneath us so look to that for clues. If we break it then support is where we saw the gap that we opened the week with (579) and then underneath that the bottom of the implied move is at 578 -577 on Fridays contract and that’s the strike I’m going to look to if we drop ( for bull put spreads) -Underneath all of that is the 30min 200MA and we are quite far away from that. It’s not in tomorrow’s trading range but could be a target next week if we see a down move from tomorrow’s earnings. GL tomorrow.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
SPY for today 10/16/24Key Observations: Price Levels: Current Price: SPY is trading around $579.32. Resistance Levels: There is resistance around $580.16 and above at $584.63, and the volume profile thins out as we approach $585.27, indicating potential price exhaustion or lack of interest above that zone. Support Levels: Major support is indicated around $575 and lower, at $570.11. Below $575, the volume profile shows stronger activity, making this a key level to watch. Volume: Volume has been increasing on recent pullbacks, which suggests that sellers are stepping in at higher levels. However, the spike in volume at lower levels could also indicate accumulation. Moving Averages: The short-term moving averages (likely 9 EMA and 21 EMA) have turned downward, indicating a bearish sentiment for the morning. The price is currently below these moving averages, showing a short-term downtrend. MACD: The MACD histogram is negative, with the lines still crossing below the zero line, indicating bearish momentum. However, the histogram shows slight narrowing, which could mean that selling pressure is weakening. Volume Profile (Visible Range): The volume profile shows a large node around $575, indicating strong buying and selling interest at that level. This could act as support if SPY moves lower. There’s a thin volume area between $580 and $585, meaning price could see sharp movements in either direction depending on order flow in this range. End-of-Day Outlook: Bullish Scenario: If SPY can hold above the $579.30 - $580.00 zone and reclaim the $584.63 resistance, it could attempt to move back toward $585.27. A move above that level could lead to a retest of the recent highs, but there would need to be strong buying momentum to push through the thin volume zones. Bearish Scenario: If SPY breaks below $579, there’s a good chance it will retest the $575.00 level. A breakdown below $575 could send the price down to $570.11, where stronger support is expected based on the volume profile. Watch for rejection at the $580 - $581 level, as this could indicate continued downside momentum. Conclusion: The price action and indicators suggest a slightly bearish bias at the moment, with potential for a bounce if SPY can hold support at $579 - $580. Keep an eye on the $575 level as it could act as a magnet if sellers continue to push. A recovery above $580 would likely target the $584 - $585 zone, where resistance is stronger. Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a professional before making any trading decisions. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-16: BreakAway PatternToday's video highlights what I believe may be a shift in market trend - which can happen. My SPY Cycle Pattern highlight expected price activity/range based on a number of factors: Fibonacci price theory, Gann analysis, Tesla Price Amplitude theory, and more. Yet, the one thing my SPY Cycle Pattern do not take into consideration is TIME. Price shifting slightly forward or backward: where price exhibits an activity/range one day before or one day after the Pattern Date has happened before. I've seen big CRUSH patterns happen +/- one day. I've seen topping/bottoming patterns happen +/- one day. Possibly, we just experienced the sideways contraction I was expecting for Wednesday of this week happen on Tuesday of this week. This type of "time shift" if not out of the question in terms of how price reacts to external news/data. What this means is we may be in for a moderate upside melt-up type of rally in the SPY/QQQ over the next 3+ trading days. Gold & Silver are moving clearly into the Phase #4 of an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. If my analysis is correct, Gold and Silver will rally to a new "Ultimate High" throughout this process. Bitcoin may have already reached the Ultimate High after yesterday's breakout rally phase. We need to watch the $68k level to see if price fails to rally above that level. The next two weeks of trading should be very interesting for all of us - moving into an election and watching the global markets attempt to adjust for opportunities/risks. Remember, ultimately, all of your decision-making should focus on three things: _ Preserving Capital _ Identifying Opportunities _ Containing Risks No matter what happens over the next three+ weeks, there will be time for more trading after the elections and in 2025 and beyond. Trading is a long game - where the #1 priority is to preserve capital while trying to find the best opportunities for profits. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4