Bullish Intraday Patterns Everywhere!SPX had a wonderful intraday hourly chart confirmed breakout. This pattern is bullish and likely will continue higher.
The bulls tomorrow would love to confirm the daily chart breakout and will try to push for that.
SPY/SPX is holding more relative strength than the Q's & IWM which is displaying broad participation.
There are many bullish charts showing accumulation, golden crosses and bullish MA crossovers.
The DXY appears to be wanting to break down to around $97.00 which should yield more upside.
We secured profits today on SPY 594 calls & NVDA 144 calls.
We still remain net long and see the S&P 500 over $6000
Apple, XYZ, AI - are bullish setups were continuing to manage.
SPY trade ideas
579 gap will be filled.Happens all the time. Chart shows an incredibly large gap. if you lower the deviation on your gap indicator a small gap can appear below this very large gap. i have seen on numerous... NUMEROUS occasions when this gap gets filled and then has a nice rebound(not necessarily sustained). I don't know if it will happen tomorrow, but if there starts to be a sustained selloff in the days ahead i will feel confident that this is the target. 579 is the price. again, it could happen on monday or it could happen next monday. i have no idea what the market is going to do from day to day, but keep this level in mind.
SPY UpdatePrice made a top just shy of the 1.382 extension fib and then reversed. Now, it has risen back up right into the area one would expect for a mini b wave. MACD is also curling down hinting at a possible move lower coming. If that is the case, and we begin moving lower again breaching $573.25, then the likely hood of a top for B raises exponentially. Should that be the case, then price will be headed to the $468-$389 area next. This means that the market as a whole will be moving significantly lower in the coming weeks.
Dropping to $468, the highest normal termination point, would constitute a 20%+ drop from current levels. To fall to the lowest standard area is almost a 35% drop. This is suggesting that the market as a whole is on the cusp of losing up to a third of its value. What could cause such a thing? Idk and idc. The only thing that matters to me, is what will happen. Currently, the structure is telling us that a major haircut is in store for the markets.
Some of you will scoff at such a remark. I don't blame you either. The world's largest market losing a third of its value is hard to fathom. Thats over 15 trillion dollars of capital just gone. If you look back just a couple weeks ago though, the S&P lost 21.43% or 10.179 trillion dollars in just over a month. Still think it's impossible? And that was just on the thought of tariffs. They hadn't even been implemented yet, lol.
I say all of this to make you aware of what the charts are telling us. Believe me or not, it doesn't really matter. When it does happen though, just remember, you were warned...
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-28 : Inside Breakaway PatternToday's Inside-Breakaway pattern suggests the markets may attempt to rally above yesterday's close on strong news or earnings. Today is the NVDA earnings day (after the close). I suspect trading will be somewhat flat ahead of these highly anticipated earnings.
Traders would be smart to position into a HEDGE ahead of the NVDA earnings this afternoon.
Obviously, if the earnings are good, the markets will react to the upside. If they are poor/weak, the markets could easily move aggressively downward.
All I know is the tariff moves over the past few weeks pushed gamers and others into buying high-end graphics cards back in April/May because everyone thought prices would skyrocket 30-50% or more. So, maybe NVDA will report strong revenue while costs increase.
It should be an interesting day after the close. Until then, I believe the markets will stay somewhat FLAT - anticipating NVDA data/comments.
Gold and Silver are still working through the FLAG APEX. Silver is already beyond the FLAG APEX and could make a big move higher at any moment. Gold still has one small downward price move to complete before the FLAGGING pattern is complete.
Overall, I believe Gold and Silver are forming a solid base near $3300/$33 for a strong rally in the future.
BTCUSD is stalling. In fact, the SPY/QQQ/BTCUSD are all stalling near the 0.75% Fib level (as shown on my charts). We may be setting up for that big breakdown I've been warning about. But, until we actually SEE price break out of the upward EPP Flagging channel - don't get overly confident of a BIG BREAKDOWN move.
My advice would be to HEDGE any aggressive trades you are trying to take right now. If you believe the markets are going to rally substantially, try to hedge that trade with some risk protection (longer-dated PUTS).
Today could be a catalyst day. We may get a breakout/breakdown move after NVDA's earnings/data.
Buckle up.
Get some.
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05-25-25 Risk Containment & Trading Strategy ExamplesSkilled Traders have learned to manage risk levels using techniques that allow them to preserve capital and move their assets towards future successful traders.
Some beginner traders get stuck trying to swing for the fences.
In this video, I try to share a common Fibonacci price/strategy technique where traders can attempt to limit risks while learning to identify efficient successful trade triggers.
Remember, taking a trade is the easy part. Protecting and growing your capital is much more difficult.
Please use the techniques in this video to learn how to protect and manage your capital.
Get some.
Happy Memorial Day.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
The TACO Trade Is Back!🌮 AMEX:SPY
📊 The Setup:
The TACO trade ("Trump Always Chickens Out") continues to prove its resilience in the face of trade war headlines. The market dips sharply when tariffs are announced, and then surges back up as the news cycle turns, with Trump pausing or reversing his decisions.
We’ve seen multiple examples of this year-to-date on the AMEX:SPY chart:
🔹 Trump Pauses Tariffs for Canada & Mexico – market bounces.
🔹 Trump Pauses Most Liberation Day Tariffs – another bounce.
🔹 Trump Floats Lowering Tariffs on China – bounce continues.
🔹 Trump Pushes Back EU Tariffs to July – market rips higher.
It’s as if every tariff tantrum is followed by an inevitable rebound. Could this be the pattern to trade around for the next few months?
At this point, it almost feels like we’re watching a predictable movie. Every new threat to impose tariffs or spark a trade war is just a scene in the “TACO” storyline, and the markets are starting to get used to the plot twist.
Are we playing into an endless loop of fear and relief? Is this time different, or just the same old TACO? How much longer can we trust that the market will “chicken out” and bounce back every time tariffs are floated?
Flying into the sun or about to get burnt?Market is about to reach all-time highs again. Many trade deals must have been made. Interest rates must have been cut. Wars must have been resolved. Personal debt must have come under control. Corporate debt must have been resolved.
Wait, nothing has changed? Things are worse? Well why is the index about to hit new all-time highs? My take is a major fake out. We are about to set a double top as we complete a rising wedge pattern.
The rising wedge.
What began at the market bottom on 7 April, has remained bound in a channel. If the first pump up was an A followed by the declaration of the channel bottom as B, wave C has last over a month upward. We have wave 3 signals identifying wave 3 of C ending with the high on 19 May. Last week's dip was wave 4 and now we fly high this week. It is unclear if we actually make a new all-time high or fall just short. The below chart has 138.197% extension around 610.63. Inside wave C, my wave 1 was nine days long, and wave 3 was only 8. This points to wave 5 lasting less than 8 days. A common wave 1-3-5 duration in relation to wave 3 is around 114% for 1 and 50% for wave 5.
The height of the rising wedge covers 66.82 points. This same distance should provide the first target bottom once we exit the channel, possibly as early as next week. Once the bottom falls, we then examine the double top pattern. Although the neckline stretches far backwards, the bottom is established at the 7 April low. The distance from the neckline to the all-time high in February provides the next possible minimum target bottom by taking this 131.43 drop and subtracting it from the neckline of 481.80. This puts the initial low around 350.37 sometime later this year or early next.
There is a perfect storm of calamity brewing with zero resolutions in place or even planned. Do we finally drop or keep rising into the sun?
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 30, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 30, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🤝 Debt-Ceiling Deal Advances
The U.S. House passed a bipartisan framework extending the federal borrowing limit through September, easing immediate default fears and lifting risk assets.
📉 Bond Yields Retreat
After surging above 4.6% earlier this week, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped back toward 4.5%, helping equities recover from recent rate-driven pullbacks.
⛽ Oil Inventories Jump
API data showed a 5.2 million-barrel build in U.S. crude stocks last week, sending oil prices lower and weighing on energy sector names.
🚗 Tesla Price Cut Spurs EV Rally
Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) cut Model 3 prices by 3% in the U.S., igniting a broader EV stock rally as investors priced in renewed demand ahead of summer driving season.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, May 30:
8:30 AM ET: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April
Measures core inflation trends—Fed’s preferred gauge of consumer-price pressures.
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales for April
Tracks signed contracts on existing homes; a leading indicator for the housing market.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Spy Monthly Close $595-$602📈 May is on track to close bullish with projected levels of $595–$602.
This move is backed by the AlphaPulse™ Trading System:
– Momentum signals confirm multi-timeframe strength
– Anchored VWAP reclaimed from April highs
– MACD bull cross + RSI holding strong (60–70 zone)
– Price above SMA50/200 with elevated volume
– Fibonacci 1.618 aligns with $602 target
When anchored VWAP, MACD, RSI, volume, fibs, and AlphaPulse all align bullishly — and price structure supports clean higher lows — the probability of a May close between $595 and $602 becomes statistically favorable.
📈 Thesis Probability and Conditional Breakdown
🔷 Bullish Probability Estimate (May Close $595–$602):
📊 68% Probability of bullish continuation into $595–$602
Based on:
Multi-timeframe confluence (MACD, RSI, AVWAP)
No bearish divergences
Volume + smart money alignment (AlphaPulse Bot)
✅ Bull Case (If $580 Holds):
If price continues holding above $580, expect:
Continuation wave toward $595 (local fib target)
Acceleration into $602 (1.618 extension) if breakout holds above $596
Supported by:
AVWAP control staying bullish
MACD histogram expanding
RSI maintaining >60 zone
AlphaPulse breakout signal staying green
🎯 Target: $595–$602
📆 Timeframe: By May 30 close
🎯 Optional overshoot: $608 wick zone if volume spikes
⚠️ Bear Case Trigger (If $580 Breaks)
If $580 fails on high volume or with RSI divergence, the setup shifts:
Condition Bearish Implication
Break below $580 Invalidates current higher low base
MACD flips negative Signals momentum exhaustion
RSI < 50 Enters bearish zone
AlphaPulse Signal flips red Confirms structural breakdown
🔻 Downside Risk:
If $580 fails, probability of bearish retrace to $567 = 75%
$567 is the last demand support zone
Also aligns with prior consolidation + rising SMA50
Below this, momentum cracks completely, and macro selling may accelerate
🧠 Final Note:
“Above $580 = control remains with bulls.
Below $580 = structure breaks, and $567 becomes the likely magnet.”
AS always SafeTrades And JoeWtrades
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Update : Memorial Weekend RisksThis EOD update is to help you try to position for the risks associated with a further breakdown in price trends over the lone Memorial Day weekend.
I know this video will be posted late in the day - but I want you to learn how to hedge against risks and try to learn to take your profits when they are THERE.
This is a really quick video.
Stay safe this weekend and thank you to all our VETS for your service and sacrifices.
We honor you this weekend.
GET SOME.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 29, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 29, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🚫 U.S. Trade Court Blocks Tariffs
A federal trade court struck down key sections of President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, sending U.S. stock futures sharply higher as investors anticipate reduced input costs for industrials and manufacturers
🌐 Markets Drift on Lack of Fresh Catalysts
Global equity markets showed muted moves today—stocks dipped and bond yields rose—as traders awaited new drivers of direction, with Nvidia’s ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) mixed earnings doing little to spark a decisive trend
📈 Bond Yields Climb, Pressuring Equities
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 4.6%, its highest in a month, on concerns over federal borrowing and fading rate-cut expectations, dragging the S&P 500 down more than 1% by midday
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, May 29:
8:30 AM ET: Advance Q1 GDP
Provides the first estimate of U.S. economic growth in Q1, a critical gauge of recession risk and Fed policy direction.
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income & Spending (April)
Tracks household earnings and outlays, offering insight into consumer resilience amid rising living costs.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY at a CrossroadsUsing the Potterbox strategy on the 4 hour time frame I can see that we are at a huge level of support that is holding at $578, which I think will be crucial in deciding whether we break down or make an attempt to try and head to the upside.
$571 and then $568.50 are downside targets, if we end up breaking down below the $578 support.
Above us, there is a box where price consolidated that we retested the bottom of back on Friday. If we are able to hold support at $578, we are likely to retest and try and secure the floor at $581. With a $582.75 break, which is cost basis, or the median of the box, we are likely to head to the bottom of the next box above us at $588.
Technical Signals Point to Potential Downside: Key Gaps and IndiThe MACD on the daily chart is nearing a bearish crossover, signaling a potential sell-off. There's a gap from April 22nd aligning with the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone. Additionally, the gap from May 9th remains to be filled, which coincides with the 100 and 200 EMA levels.