SPY structure pattern AMEX:SPY
We could see more down side next 3 - 6months due standard deviation is over 3 std
SPY trade ideas
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Blast offLook, Spy is bullish and that makes bears really mad. They have to resort to Elliot Wave Theory, "Hidden" bearish divergence (its so hidden, its plastered all over the internet) and calling it a scam.
NEWSFLASH
It is a scam. Why fight it? Anyone who hopped on calls Last friday has made their next 3 years of profits inside of a shortened holiday week.
What did you do?
Listen to your furus with weird a$$ nicknames on here tell you that it has to go down because they drove thru a random neighborhood in Cali and saw less xmas lights than last year (that is an actual post/reason in the ideas section on SPY).
You want to keep throwing your money at worthless put options be my guest. Every dip has been bought because everyone crams through the door on a $1 pullback, and becomes rocket fuel.
Time to blast off.
Why not?See the pattern? SPY closed within the ascending channel. We might see a green weekly candle next week.
SPY 15m Analysis: FVGs and Key Levels for Next MovesOverview
This idea focuses on the SPY 15-minute chart, highlighting key fair value gaps (FVGs) and critical support/resistance levels. The current price action shows potential for both bullish and bearish scenarios, contingent on price reactions at crucial levels.
Bearish Scenario
Key Level to Watch:
If SPY closes below 566.44, it signals further downside momentum. Traders should look for the formation of the next Bearish FVG to initiate short positions.
Projected Target:
First Target: 550–555 zone (likely demand zone or support area).
Downward momentum is supported by the recent sharp sell-off, indicating heavy selling pressure.
Invalidation:
A sustained move back above 588.85 will weaken bearish momentum.
Bullish Scenario
Key Level to Watch:
For any upward momentum, a Bullish FVG must form above the current price, likely in the 588.85–595.79 range.
Projected Target:
First Target: 595.79
Second Target: 600+, where stronger resistance may emerge.
Invalidation:
Failure to hold above 588.85 could result in further selling pressure.
Volume and Momentum Considerations
While individual candlestick volume isn't displayed, the rapid decline hints at increased selling pressure. Monitor volume closely during retests for confirmation of strength or weakness in price action.
Plan Your Trade:
Use clear invalidation levels to manage risk.
Wait for price confirmation (e.g., closing below 566.44 or a bullish FVG forming above 588.85).
Utilize stop-loss orders to safeguard against unexpected reversals.
Conclusion
This setup allows for flexibility, focusing on key zones and volume confirmation. The bias leans bearish, but a bullish retracement cannot be ruled out if price action shifts momentum. Keep an eye on FVG formations for entry signals.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) 2-Hour Time Frame Analysis Current Current Market Overview
As of December 2024, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is showing a bullish trend with the following technical indicators:
MACD : Suggests a buy signal.
RSI : Indicates a neutral signal.
Moving Averages: Both 20-day and 50-day moving averages suggest a buy signal.
Price Action: The support level is at US$600.96, and the resistance level is at US$607.46.
Options Strategy Recommendations
1. Long Call
trade_id: g-663257
Signal: Bullish
Option Strategy: Long Call
Current Price: US$605.57
Strike Price: US$550.00
Expiry Date: 20-Dec-2024
Buy/Sell: Buy
Call/Put: Call
Premium: US$55.46
Stop loss: US$49.91
Take profit: US$61.01
Probability of Profit: 51.4%
Implied Volatility: 96.81%
Max Loss: US$-5546.00
Max Gain: ∞ (infinity)
Break-even price: US$605.46
Days to Expiration: 2
Rationale: This strategy is designed to capitalize on a bullish outlook for SPY, with a high probability of profit and a defined risk-reward profile.
Conclusion
The SPY is currently in a consolidation phase, and the recommended options strategy provides an opportunity to capitalize on potential bullish market movements. The Long Call offers a high probability of profit with defined risk, allowing for profit from significant price movements in the upward direction.
Spy Looks Bullish With a 15min bullish FVG forming S&P 500 (SPY) Price Action Analysis
Current Price and Technical Overview
Current Price: $605.28 (as of last close on 17-Dec-2024)
Market Status: Closed
Day Change: +$0.99 (+0.16%)
Technical Analysis Summary
Overall Signal: Bullish
Oscillators: Predominantly 'Hold', with the Momentum Indicator suggesting a 'Buy'.
Moving Averages: Strong bullish signals from short-term and medium-term averages.
Pattern: Breakout above resistance indicates a bullish trend.
Resistance Level: Potential price target near $608.65.
Pivot Point Analysis: Price is above the pivot level of $606.59, supporting bullish sentiment.
News Sentiment
Sentiment: Entirely positive, likely to drive buying activity and support upward price movement.
Interpretation
The technical indicators for SPY suggest a bullish stance. The strong signals from moving averages and the breakout above resistance levels indicate potential for further gains. The positive news sentiment reinforces this outlook, suggesting a likelihood of price appreciation in the near term.
Trading Strategy Consideration
Given the bullish outlook, traders might consider entering long positions or call options on a retest of the pivot level at $606.59, aiming for the next leg up towards the resistance level of $608.65. However, it's crucial to monitor for any signs of reversal or changes in sentiment that could impact this strategy.
Spy Short Well Well Guys, Yes I'm going to continue to go short especially this week with the big big decision of rate cuts Wednesday, if not this Friday or Monday 600 target I'm definitely out of the short position for now!! The New Narrative Trend by the way, is Insane how the results have been so far if you want more info content is out right now about it, generational wealth will be made!! And Yes you can still get in!!! Goodluck Traders and I will Follow Up With Spy on Tuesday
Spy under falls under 605 602 for sure that's when we should see blood in the streets
QQQ forget about it its A short 1st target $528
Bias for Today: Short with Bearish FVGs or Flip Long on Short with Bearish FVGs or Flip Long entering Calls on the First Bullish Fair Value Gap.
AMEX:SPY "Today's market bias is to open with a short outlook. If bearish Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) start to form and price respects them, I’ll look to enter short positions targeting lower levels. However, if price bounces off these zones and a bullish FVG forms, I will shift focus to initiate long positions on the first bullish FVG that sets up cleanly. Watching for clear confirmations and respecting key price action levels will be critical. Let’s stay adaptive to what the market gives us!"
SPY Options: Bull & Bear (Week of December 16)AMEX:SPY
Short-term we are looking at a downside trade as we want RSI to cool off a bit. Key levels at $607 and our key pivot of $604.25 last week.
📜 $604 Put 12/31
Entry: Rejection and 15-min close UNDER $607, entry off retest of resistance
🎯 Targets: $604.25, $603.37
📜 $608 Call 12/31
Entry: Breakout and 15 min close OVER $607, entry off retest of support
🎯 Targets: $608, $608.50
SPY at a Critical Juncture: Will it Reversal or More Pain Ahead?In the past two days, SPY (S&P 500 ETF) has experienced a pronounced downturn, raising critical questions about the next directional move. Today's price action indicates a pivotal moment, with the market consolidating near a key support level at $584. The question remains: is this a pause before a bounce, or a precursor to further downside?
This detailed analysis breaks down SPY's current technical setup, provides actionable trade levels, and offers insights into potential scenarios for tomorrow's session. Let’s dive into the charts and indicators to uncover opportunities.
Technical Market Trend Analysis
1. Downtrend Confirmation
* Price Structure: SPY has formed consistent lower highs and lower lows over the past two sessions, clearly defining a downtrend. The breach of the critical $587 support level early in today’s session amplified selling pressure.
* Trendlines: A descending channel on the hourly chart below further confirms bearish control, with price respecting the upper boundary of the channel as resistance.
2. Volume Dynamics
* Selling Pressure: Noticeable volume spikes during the declines highlight strong participation by sellers.
* Reduced Buying Interest: Rebounds were marked by lower volume, indicating a lack of commitment from buyers.
Key Levels to Watch
Support Levels
1. $584: The current zone where price consolidates. This is the first line of defense for bulls.
2. $580: Major gamma exposure support level (GEX7). Breaching this level could accelerate downside momentum toward $575.
Resistance Levels
1. $587: Immediate resistance. A reclaim of this level would signal strength and could trigger short covering.
2. $590: Aligned with gamma resistance and psychological significance, this is the next target for a bullish breakout.
Indicators in Play
EMA Analysis
* The 9 EMA and 21 EMA are both sloping downward, acting as dynamic resistance levels. This reinforces the short-term bearish trend.
MACD
* The hourly MACD shows bearish momentum, with a widening histogram and a negative crossover. However, a slight tapering in the histogram near the end of the session hints at potential consolidation or a reversal attempt.
Options Oscillator and GEX Insights
* Gamma Levels:
* $584: Current pivot, showing strong put positioning.
* $580: Heavy put support; any break below this would likely see rapid downside.
* $590: Significant call resistance; a breakout above would indicate a shift in sentiment.
* Sentiment: Dominance of 102.7% puts reflects bearish sentiment in the options market.
Trading Strategy
Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal Setup
1. Entry: Enter long above $587 with confirmation of strong volume.
2. Target: $590 for the first target, $593 for the second.
3. Stop-Loss: Place stops at $585 to minimize risk.
4. Justification:
* Reclaiming $587 would signal a potential reversal or at least a relief rally.
* $590 aligns with gamma resistance, offering a logical profit target.
Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation Setup
1. Entry: Short below $584 with increasing sell volume.
2. Target: $580 for the first target, $575 for the second.
3. Stop-Loss: Place stops at $585.50 to cap risk.
4. Justification:
* A breakdown below $584 would confirm the continuation of the downtrend.
* Heavy put support at $580 would likely provide the next pause point.
Market Outlook
While the short-term trend is bearish, the market is approaching a critical inflection point. Tomorrow’s session will likely determine whether SPY bounces from oversold conditions or continues its descent. Watch for high-impact news and volume trends to validate directional moves.
Conclusion
SPY’s price action reflects a decisive moment. Both bulls and bears have clear opportunities depending on how the key levels at $584 and $587 play out. Use disciplined risk management and wait for confirmation before entering trades.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
$SPY ChatGPT's predicted 12/19 Move Per chatGPT
www.tradingview.com
Considering the anticipated GDP report and its potential impact on market sentiment, here are three scenarios for SPY’s intraday high and low:
1. Best-Case Scenario:
• High: $600
• Low: $585
Assumption: The GDP report exceeds expectations, indicating robust economic growth, which boosts investor confidence and leads to a market rally.
2. Moderate Scenario:
• High: $590
• Low: $580
Assumption: The GDP report aligns with forecasts, suggesting steady economic conditions. The market reacts with cautious optimism, resulting in moderate price movements.
3. Worst-Case Scenario
• High: $580
• Low: $570
Assumption: The GDP report falls short of expectations, signaling potential economic slowdown. This triggers investor concern, leading to a market sell-off and lower SPY prices.
Note: These scenarios are hypothetical and depend on various factors, including investor sentiment, market liquidity, and broader economic indicators.
SPY will drop ... until Christmas.This is going to be quick.... busy right now.
You can look at my other charts to see the explanation of why I use the Heikin Ashi candlesticks.
The SPY is going to drop until Christmas. You can see the indicators on the daily chart shifting towards a downward move.
I believe you will see a zig zag move with this drop.
This week the market will drop.
Starting Monday you will see it move slightly upward as there will be indecision/positivity around the Fed Decision.
After the Fed Decision, the market will drop again until Christmas. This drop will be about the same distance as the drop this week.
The targets I have laid out are on the Chart with the drop hitting around 593 before going back up at the beginning of next week to hit about 601.
(It may not go up this high with the bounce up; it could hit a different level. I will update this post of the different levels it could hit if it hits my 593 target.)
After the Fed decision, it will drop until approximately 585.
I could be slightly off on any one of my targets. And if it doesn't hit 593 by the end of this week, all my other predictions will shift.
Happy trading.
Grinch drop, Santa popSPY is at it's 2 year trend channel resistance level. There's very little upside reward left. There's a greater downside risk. The Grinch may try to steal Christmas with a temporary SPY drop towards support. But then a Santa Claus rally will pop SPY back up to it's resistance level.
SPY 2 year trend channel levels:
resistance = 605
pivot = 585
support = 565
trade ideas:
1) collar strategy
hold 100 shares
sell 585 call
buy 605 put
2) buy 605 put
3) short call spread
sell 585 call
buy 605 call
4) long put spread
buy 605 put
sell 585 put
SPY options data:
12/6/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 219,329
Call Volume Total 125,297
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.75
Put Open Interest Total 750,130
Call Open Interest Total 233,054
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.22
12/13/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 69,042
Call Volume Total 43,893
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.57
Put Open Interest Total 317,687
Call Open Interest Total 228,869
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.39
12/20/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 336,702
Call Volume Total 139,171
Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.42
Put Open Interest Total 3,273,537
Call Open Interest Total 1,426,800
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.29
12/27/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 13,062
Call Volume Total 14,931
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.87
Put Open Interest Total 72,224
Call Open Interest Total 59,538
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.21
1/17/25 LEAPS
Put Volume Total 191,268
Call Volume Total 63,574
Put/Call Volume Ratio 3.01
Put Open Interest Total 2,376,812
Call Open Interest Total 855,976
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.78
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-19 : Top PatternToday, we should expect the SPY/QQQ to move a bit higher - trying to form a short-term top before price rolls downward again.
I urge traders to stay very cautious of early trending and look for a bigger opportunity later in the day as price rolls downward.
Gold and Silver are struggling. I still believe Gold and Silver will rally higher as fear elevates. But right now - that is not happening.
I need to see Gold and Silver move away from this panic selling before I can become move convinced of a trend.
Stay cautious if you are trying to trade Gold and Silver right now.
Bitcoin is moving through an EPP pattern very cleanly - actually a DUAL EPP pattern.
$95-$99k should be the downside price target throughout this move.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
No One Good Trade Today: Here is A Quick Market BreakdownWe saw major volatility in the market yesterday. This is not something that we could have predicted. It is our job to be on the right side of the market today and moving foward after this move. In my morning overview yesterday, I talked about about how the federal reserve would cut but, likely not cut into 2025. Apparently, this was not common knowledge and it scared markets.
SPY Crashed Today: Where Will It Head Tomorrow? (Dec. 19)The market witnessed a steep decline today, with SPY reflecting significant selling pressure. This crash-driven move indicates a pivotal shift in market sentiment, raising questions about support levels and potential recovery zones.
Market Structure Analysis
* Trend Overview: The daily chart shows SPY breaking below its ascending channel, signaling a potential trend reversal or deep correction.
* Volume: An extraordinary spike in sell-side volume highlights panic selling and a possible capitulation phase.
* Sentiment: Sentiment appears bearish in the short term, driven by macroeconomic fears.
Supply and Demand Zones
* Demand Zone: $577–$580 (critical for any potential bounce).
* Supply Zone: $602–$607 (will act as immediate resistance on recovery attempts).
Order Blocks and Support/Resistance
* Key Resistance:
* $591: A psychological and structural level.
* $602: High volume node and previous breakdown level.
* Key Support:
* $580: Near-term support; failure to hold could test $572.
* $567: A crucial lower-level support.
Key Indicators
* EMA:
* 9 EMA and 21 EMA crossed bearish, confirming short-term downtrend momentum.
* MACD:
* Deep in bearish territory, momentum remains strongly negative.
* RSI:
* Oversold on multiple timeframes, signaling potential for a technical bounce.
Options Flow and GEX
* Put Wall: Significant at $590 and $580 levels, suggesting bearish bias remains strong.
* Call Wall: $604–$607, indicating heavy resistance if price retraces upward.
* Gamma Exposure (GEX): Negative, reinforcing current bearish momentum.
Scalping vs. Swing Outlook
* Scalping:
* Look for intraday bounces from $580 to $586 with tight stop-loss below $578.
* Swing Trading:
* Wait for confirmation of bottoming signals near $577 before entering long. Bearish positions remain valid below $590.
Actionable Suggestions
1. Short-Term Bullish:
* Entry: Near $580 support.
* Exit: Around $586–$588 resistance.
* Stop-Loss: Below $578.
2. Short-Term Bearish:
* Entry: On rejection at $590.
* Exit: Target $580 or lower.
* Stop-Loss: Above $592.
Conclusion
SPY's break of key support levels indicates a bearish short-term outlook. However, oversold conditions suggest a technical bounce could occur in the $577–$580 range. Monitor key levels and macro catalysts closely before positioning.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk responsibly before trading.
SPY GETS FROTHY
We might see all post election gains erased before year end, are you a BULL or a BEAR...... is the Santa rally over?! What say you?
SPY Technical Analysis (TA) and GEX Analysis for Dec. 181. Daily Chart (1D)
* Trend: SPY is trading within a well-established upward channel. The price recently hit resistance at the upper channel line (~609), suggesting overbought conditions.
* Support Levels:
* 590: Key short-term support, aligned with the lower EMA support.
* 577-571: Major support zone; a breakdown here signals a bearish shift.
* Resistance:
* 609-610: Upper trendline resistance. SPY has failed to hold above this range.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish divergence forming as momentum weakens while price pushes higher.
* Volume: Strong volume uptick at recent highs, suggesting possible distribution.
Bias: The daily chart signals caution, with a potential pullback to 602-604 (middle channel) or further to 590.
2. Hourly Chart (1H)
* Price Action: SPY shows rejection from the upper resistance (~609) and is trending downward towards key intraday support at 602-603.
* Support/Resistance:
* Support: 602 (highest PUT Wall in GEX), 604 (confluence of EMA and PUT Wall).
* Resistance: 607-608 (CALL resistance).
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish crossover; momentum remains negative.
* Trendlines: SPY is testing lower channel support on this timeframe.
Bias: SPY is likely to remain range-bound between 603-607 for now. A break below 602 could accelerate downside pressure.
3. GEX Analysis
* Key GEX Levels:
* 607: CALL Resistance (1.25%). Likely an upper cap.
* 603: Highest negative NETGEX/PUT Support. This level is critical; breaking below it increases bearish momentum.
* 602: Second PUT Wall (-32.62%), significant downside target.
* Options Oscillator: Indicates PUT dominance with 56.9% Puts versus Calls.
* IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 16.7 — IV remains low, suggesting minimal volatility expectation.
GEX Insight: The options market suggests 603 is the battleground. Bulls need to reclaim 607 to push higher, while bears will attempt to defend the PUT-heavy zones at 603-602.
Trade Outlook for SPY
* Bearish Setup: Look for rejection at 605-607. A breakdown below 603 can target 602, with potential downside extension to 600.
* Bullish Setup: A strong rebound off 603 with volume could signal a push back to test 607. Break above 608 confirms bullish continuation.
Conclusion
SPY remains at a critical juncture near upper resistance. Monitor 603 closely, as a break or bounce here will dictate short-term direction. Options GEX levels highlight a PUT-heavy market, favoring bearish pressure unless bulls reclaim higher ground.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your risk.
SPY Analysis: Daily & 1-Hour Chart With GEX Analysis for Dec. 17Current Sentiment:
* SPY appears range-bound but leaning bearish near resistance on the Daily chart.
* The 1-Hour chart shows SPY retracing from its recent high around 609, struggling to hold above key support levels.
Key Technical Levels
Daily Chart:
* Resistance: 609.97 (recent high).
* Support: 602.81, 598.40.
* Trend: Uptrend intact, but momentum is stalling. Watch for a potential break below 602.
1-Hour Chart:
* Resistance: 607, 608.41 (GEX Call Wall and prior highs).
* Support: 605, 604 (key demand area), and 602.13 (next major support).
* SPY is showing lower highs on the hourly chart, indicating a short-term bearish bias.
Options Gamma Exposure (GEX)
* Call Wall: 608 (2nd Wall) and 611 (upper wall).
* Put Wall: 604 (3rd PUT Wall).
* HVL (High Volatility Level): 603, suggesting potential support if tested.
* GEX Overview:
* Puts dominate with 40.2%, showing hedging pressures.
* IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 10.8, IVx avg 12.9% – lower volatility indicates slower moves.
Scalp and Swing Trade Suggestions
For Scalp Trade:
* Short Bias: If SPY fails to reclaim 607, consider a PUT scalp targeting 605.
* Entry: Below 607 with confirmation.
* Target: 605, 604.
* Stop-Loss: Above 608.50.
For Swing/Day Trade:
* Put Option:
* Strike: 605 PUT (Weekly Expiry).
* Entry: On rejection at 607-608 levels.
* Target: 602-604 zone.
* Stop-Loss: Above 609.
* Call Option:
* Strike: 608 CALL if SPY breaks and holds above 608.
* Target: 611-612 zone.
* Stop-Loss: Below 606.
Conclusion:
SPY is showing signs of weakness near resistance, with a short-term bearish setup. A rejection at 607-608 could trigger PUT opportunities toward 602-604. Keep an eye on the 603 HVL for potential support and monitor price action carefully.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research and manage your risk before trading.
Deep short for SPY? My target is at 510, here why!Christmas Eve Rally? - Not quite.
Trump Trade? - Hardly.
So, what’s driving the market higher, and where is SPY headed next?
Investor sentiment surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential elections seems to echo the euphoria of 2016, raising hopes for a similar post-election rally. Themes like tax cuts, protectionism, and trade wars are fueling optimism for U.S. equities.
But let’s not get carried away. The economic and geopolitical landscapes today are vastly different, and so is the narrative. The “Superman” Trump of 2016 no longer holds the same sway over markets.
The post-COVID stock market rally was buoyed by an unprecedented flood of liquidity. Based on our analysis, those excess dollars are nearly spent. Furthermore, the global economic outlook bears little resemblance to the relatively stable environment of 2016.
While the Democrats’ recent performance metrics provide Powell with ample material to champion a “resilient economy,” the bigger question remains: Is the U.S. stock market truly worth its current valuations?
We’ll delve into the overvaluation of the #SPY and #SPX indices in greater detail in the coming updates.
For now, you can pay close attention to technical analysis, identifying key peaks and potential correction levels.
