forecast S & P 500 / The peak will be soonMethods of building and temporary cycles, a forecast for SPY is built
The probability of correction is more than 75%
SPY trade ideas
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 1-30 : Top PatternToday's Top pattern suggests the markets will attempt a minor rally in early trading, possibly targeting the 605 resistance level, then shift/rollover into a downward price trend (the TOP pattern) and being to move downward into the pre-DeepV low levels I've suggests (possibly near 585-588).
At that point, I suspect we'll get a few days of consolidation before we see the DeepV breakdown take place near Feb 11-13 (which may actually start on Friday the previous week).
Overall, I'm expecting the markets to roll into downward trending over the next 7 to 10+ days.
Gold and Silver are moving higher - which is great to see (finally). Maybe all Gold needed was to roll to the newer contract to finally break above the $2820 level. lol
Who knows.
This is the start of the BIG RALLY (Expansion Phase) in metals that should last almost all year. If my research is correct, Gold and Silver will reach a peak level near July-October 2025.
Bitcoin has moved into an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern that may prompt a rally up to resistance near $108,450.
At this point, the inverted EPP pattern is in the consolidation phase and I'm watching for it to break above $105,500 (moving to the ultimate high), or below $100,270 (as an invalidation breakdown move).
The next 5+ trading days should be very interesting for everyone.
Get some.
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Tracking Liquidity Zones on $SPY – ICT Method in PlayWatching key liquidity zones on AMEX:SPY this week. Displacements could lead to strong moves, so patience and confirmation are crucial. Using the ICT method to navigate these setups—will we see new highs or a churn back to 590? Staying alert for opportunities. 📈 #SPY #LiquidityZones #ICTMethod
S&P 500 Forecast for 2025: Insights from Stock Market CyclesAMEX:SPY
CME_MINI:ES1!
SP:SPX
January Barometer: The month of January has already closed with a net gain over December. Therefore, in accordance with the January Barometer this suggests a positive year.
First Five Days Indicator: The first five trading days being positive further supports this outlook. Although they were barely positive at +0.6% it still counts.
December Low Indicator: This indicator is bearish if the December low is taken out in Q1 of the year. Unfortunately, the December low was already breached in January, which adds a note of caution. We now have two bullish indicators and one negative indicator.
Presidential Cycle: With 2025 being the first year of a presidential term, historically this has been bearish for the stock market. It brings uncertainty, which may temper expectations. This is the year where presidents typically enact changes and tough fiscal measures, although president Trump may prove to be atypical here; especially if he enacts any of his tax policies, rate cuts or large government spending programs this year. So, while this indicator is bearish, it has a caveat given how unorthodox Trump is as a president. For example, in 2016 the stock market was very volatile but still gained 10% under Trump’s first term year.
Outlook: Combining these factors, the outlook for 2025 is cautiously optimistic. While the January barometer and the first 5 days indicator point to a positive year, the breach of the December low coupled with this being the first-year of a presidential cycle suggests a volatile to bearish year. When combining all indicators we arrive at the conclusion that we are in for a volatile RANGE year. The bulls and bears will battle it out in a tug of war. While January-April tend to be seasonally bullish, May-October tend to be bearish. November and December are seasonally bullish too. So whether the year closes with a slight gain or slight loss isn’t the focus. The best approach for this year is to capitalize on the swings. Therefore, mean reversion strategies (buy low, sell high) are ideal. Momentum and breakout strategies should be avoided. Finally, avoid being caught in a drawdown in the May-October period and position yourself to capitalize on the Nov-Dec seasonally bullish period.
Spy is going downIt looks like it from trend analysis. Latest news and trend is pointing for correction move
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-29 : GAP ReversalToday's pattern suggests the markets are going to start off with a bit of a bang.
Although I expect the markets to try to hold up with some support, I believe, ultimately, the markets will break downward - continuing into the Deep-V Feb 9-10 bottom my cycles are projecting.
Gold and Silver are acting to attempt to hedge the global risks and could explode much higher over the next 30 - 60+ days.
Bitcoin looks like it will continue to move downward, first to 98k, then to 92k.
I'm seeing lots of Excess Phase Peak patterns in price action. This suggests the markets are struggling for direction right now and could move aggressively into a downward cycle phase before the Feb 9-10 Deep-V base/bottom.
Either way, we are going to find a lot of opportunities over the next 30+ days as traders.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Morning OverviewI covered a bunch of pullbacks that I like for the morning as well some general market sentiment. The AMEX:DIA seems to be the strongest index to trade right now. A couple of sectors that are turning around are healthcare and water utilities. I think those are my highest conviction longs.
Stock Market Forecast | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFTStock Market Forecast | SPY and QQQ
Mag 7 Forecast | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META GOOGL MSFT
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day TradersAll right today is the day after FOMC and some big earnings and because we had big earnings yesterday we have a pretty wide trading range today so just because we are options are we could have a more volatile day
The expected move on today’s contract is between 596 and 608. We did close underneath 35EMA and we have a red signal line.
If we get about the 35 EMA today which future so far are taking us above, we do have a down gap from yesterday and then a down gap from Monday that we haven’t completely filled yet. We also have an up gap from last Wednesday and they do overlap. It’s a little bit hard to see but right around 603 is the overlap .
To the downside, we have the 50 day moving average so far that has been our support this week. You could see on Monday. We did see that balance and underneath that the 30 minute two and removing average and the one hour 200 moving average those levels have been supporting us With some nice technical bounces
Symmetrical Triangle Formation – Breakout Imminent?📊 Chart Analysis:
A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the chart, signaling a potential breakout soon. This pattern is characterized by lower highs and higher lows, converging into a tightening range. Such formations indicate price consolidation before a strong directional move.
🔍 Key Observations:
The price is approaching the apex of the triangle, where a breakout or breakdown is likely to occur.
Volume contraction suggests that a significant move is on the horizon.
The previous trend was bullish, increasing the probability of an upward breakout, but confirmation is necessary.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
A breakout above the upper trendline with strong volume could trigger a continuation of the uptrend.
Potential targets can be calculated by measuring the height of the triangle and projecting it upwards.
Target if breaks above: $610
📉 Bearish Scenario:
A breakdown below the lower trendline may indicate trend reversal or a deeper correction.
Watching for volume confirmation and key support levels will be crucial.
Target if it breaks below: $585
As Goes January So Goes the YearI have written and talked about this statistical superstition born out of trading almanacs of the "January Effect" which proposes that the month of January's direction (a green bar or a red bar) will determine the final close of the year as a whole. I plugged the data into a spreadsheet this year mid-January to get the updated statistic and for the last 97 years this adage has held true 68% of the time. Like all statistics when studying markets "nothing is 100%" but it is safe to say "more often than not" this is true.
The January 2025 Monthly open is -3.03% from the Friday close... SPY is going to open -2.19% as of writing this morning. We still have a whole week of trading days left in January to see how 2025 will MOST PROBABLY play out.
There's a lot of "reasons" talk this morning about some Chinese AI being the culprit of the selloff. I never take heed of the need for the media to publish digestible stories to give such reasons: they are never tradable prior to the event they claim and each is a one-off so knowing the "reason" (if even true) is totally worthless for making money.
The more logical answer according to price which is far more actionable to traders is the failed breakout last Friday. While SPY made a new All Time High the Weekly itself failed to close to confirm it. Not following through on such a move is a clear bearish signal going into a weekend. Now THAT is a much better "reason" to be focused on this week (and every time it happens in the future).
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-28 : Temp Bottom PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Temp Bottom.
After yesterday's big breakdown and consolidation, I believe the SPY will attempt to identify support, possibly near 597, and attempt to move higher a bit today.
Ultimately, a Temp Bottom pattern is where the price seeks out support (moving downward or retesting recent support levels) and then rolls to the upside, creating a base/bottom type of pattern.
The QQQ should follow the same pattern.
Gold and Silver seem trapped for the next 2-3 days (possibly melting a bit higher as the US Dollar appears to be moving downward a bit).
I don't see Gold/Silver starting to make any big moves until Jan 31 or in early Feb.
Bitcoin will likely stall out, just like the SPY/QQQ, over the next 2-3 days, then move into a downward price phase - attempting to move back towards $92k.
I believe the markets are stalling and in a bit of shock at the moment. Don't get too aggressive in any trades unless you are confident in your ability to manage risk levels.
Some sectors/symbols will trend. But the SPY/QQQ will likely stall out for another 2-3 days before making another big move.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY: Last week of January Haha excuse the rant! Lot of trauma based on the events today and the market status.
But these are my own thoughts and opinions and analysis.
Safe trades everyone!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-27 : Consolidation PatternToday is an incredible day in my world.
I have been warning of a major peak/top near Jan 20-23 for more than 45+ days. I have continued to warn traders of a major top/peak near the Inauguration and how I believe the markets would suddenly shift downward - targeting the Feb 9-11 Deep-V bottom.
All of my predictive analysis is based on Gann, Tesla (Energy frequency, amplitude, vibration) and Fibonacci research.
The reason I state this is because I want you to start thinking of price action in terms of energy expulsion and consolidation.
Price is the ultimate indicator. My research proves we can attempt to predict future price moves (tops, bottoms, strength, weakness, and others) with a moderate degree of accuracy.
As I continue to expand my research, tools, and resources, I will continue to improve my analysis/predictive capabilities.
To me, this is very exciting.
Today, I would expect the markets to consolidate in a fairly wide/volatile range.
Gold and Silver will likely continue to try to recover/rally out of these flagging/pennant formations. Silver is set in more of a range-bound price channel, whereas Gold is clearly moving into a Pennant/Flag setup.
BTCUSD appears to have broken the EPP Flag channel and should attempt to move down to GETTEX:92K over the next 5+ days.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Uptrend for the next 10 days The market will go up for the next 10 days.
I am using the Heikin Ashi candlesticks as they:
1) show more of a directional movement within candlesticks,
2) they tend to filter out the market noise so you can see the market direction better,
3) it reduces false signals, allowing you to stay in the trade longer, and
4) gives you a smoother appearance making it easier to see trends and reversals.
Typically, I would wait until there are 2 green Heikin Ashi green candlesticks before entering.
I still tend to switch back and forth between Heikin Ashi candlesticks and regular candlesticks since regular candlesticks are what I am familiar with and have been using since I started trading.
I use the MacD, the Stock RSI and the DMI to assist me with the direction of the market.
I am anticipating a bull trend for the next while as the 30 min, 1 hour, 2 hour, 3 hour and 4 hour indicators are already looking bullish. The rest of the time frame indicators should change shortly.
I have a few targets. In the past I have said the market is usually moving about 34 points, but I think it will make a less of a move this time due to the Stock RSI only being slightly lower as it is not starting close to 0.
If you look at some of the past moves, the market moved around 20 points such as from July 1 to July 16, Oct 7 to Oct 17 and Nov. 20 to Dec 6th. As well, if you look at the Stock RSI on the daily charts, it has only declined a little. So even with it turning soon, it only has a little way to go upward.
Typically, I would wait until there are 2 green Heikin Ashi green candlesticks before entering.
I still tend to switch back and forth between Heinkin Ashi candlesticks and regular candlesticks since regular candlesticks is what I was using since I started trading and there are still some benefits I get from regular candlesticks.
The targets I have in place are:
22 point move = 616
1.618 Fibonacci move = 619.35
10 day move = Feb 12
If it hits one of these targets, I am out of my trade.
My stops are:
1) the low of the previous candlestick,
2) 2 red Heikin Ashi candlesticks,
3) a specific dollar amount of a total loss for my trade or
4) a specific dollar amount of the contract.
Happy trading everyone!
SPY Cycles & TA: 1/30/25Today I focus on the general stock market using the SPY to get an idea of where we are and were we are going. Things are looking bearish AF and a possible surprise crash is now day or weeks away. Many warnings in this video.
SPY Rising WedgeIf SPY fails to break ATH today, you will see a pattern open for drawback. With tariff news and jobs report looming into next week, it will be possible to see sub-600 prices next week.
(Fixed Chart) $SPY Analysis Key Levels & TargetsI made a mistake in the first SPY chart this is the actual trading range for today 591 to 606 and as of right now we’re sitting right at the 50 day moving which is a critical level underneath that we do have that downward facing 1hr 200MA and the 30min 200 for support on the day
Where we headed?! Spy looking to fill gap up? Or fall?Spy could retest Demand zone back at 588 range, soon as ga fills just be mindful of the rug pull down unless we breakout and test 610 and up to 613-615 range top of the channel and for a new ATH. Rock with me see where he headed!
$SPY BOOM target hit in SPYTarget from last nights video HIT 🙌
and that puts us right in the middle of the island gap after technical bouncing on the 50DMA
FOMC & NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:MSFT earning today!
SPY approaching top of channel that started back on 2016SPY approaching top of channel and RSI declining during same time frame. I'm seeing that this will play out in late winter/early spring, so plenty of time to prepare. Once it does dip there is strong support on bottom of channel which will coincide with the 50 Month EMA.
SPY will continue to go up tomorrow and for the rest of the weekI use the Heikin Ashi candlestick as they show more of a directional move within the candlesticks. Today the market went up, although you cannot see that on the Heikin Ashi Candlesticks (just on the regular candlesticks.) Typically, I would not enter until I see 2 green candlesticks on the Heikin Ashi candlesticks. But you can see on the 1-3 hour charts that all the indicators are suggesting an upward move. The 4 hour candlesticks are just about to change to a bullish move.
In the past, the SPY has made a 34 point upward move. This would put the target of 609.
The 1.618 fib move would be 614.38. This is my second target.
Typically, the SPY has had a 9-12 day move in the past once the Heiki Ashi candlesticks turn green. That would make the time target of Jan 27 to 30th. I think the move will be until Jan 30th as the market should decline from Jan 31st until Feb 6th. (just before the release for the employment situation in the USA.) This is my time target.
There could be an extreme move of 53 points to put the target to 628, but that is an extreme move not an average move.
In my past charts, I mentioned I thought the market may decline in February as the market has moved upwards for 3 months and down for one month. I no longer think that will happen due to the market declining from the middle of December to Jan 10th. If you switch to a weekly chart to look at the indicators, you can see there was a decline during that time. Currently, the weekly indicators are just starting to suggest a bullish move.
I use the DMI, Stoch RSI and the MacD as my indicators as well the Heinkin Ashi candlesticks to help with the directional moves.
There is currently a week long Wealth365 Summit with many traders speaking. I have no affiliation with this company. I am just attending the summit to learn more. Check it out here to register... www.wealth365.com
Happy Trading Everyone!
SP 500 head n shoulder and cup n handle ?? The chart posted can be counted two ways if a bullish move is about to start First I want to express that the cycles are only holding up till feb 12/13 .So I can count this decline as wave 2 in the 5 waves up forming But the target 6128 was perfect math in which wave a x 1,618 = wave c for wave B top if the bearish count is the right one it would have more downside and it would drop 5861 plus or minus 2 then a bigger rally. But lets talk about this being wave 2 down wave 3 of 5 of 5 would see the rally from today low advance to two targets and both should be within 3 pts First 6183 is where wave 3 is .618 of wave 1 second is 6235 plus or minus 3 I would be VERY CAUTIOUS and look for 6183 The sox index is now ending my first 5 waves down in the bear market in SOX=SMH we should now see a weak ABC rally back to 248/252 . The forecast in SOX was PERFECT and has much much more downside this year. IN the QQQ we should now see a rally 531 alt 537Best of trades WAVETIMER
