is the bottom in?many signs point to aug 5th being an important bottom.
be careful if you are a bear.
SPY trade ideas
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for Sept 9 : GapUp-Higher Counter TrendPay special attention to this video and prepare for what I believe will be a type of Flash-Crash event starting near Sept 20-24.
Now is the time to start moving more capital into CASH. Prepare for this potential downside price move of -9-14% by protecting your capital.
Yes. There will be bigger opportunities near the bottom of this moderate Flash-crash event.
No, you don't want to watch your assets fall 10-15% over the next 60 days.
The solution is to move into a more protective allocation mode (70~80% CASH) over the next 5 to 7 days and then ride it out.
Remember, I'm here to try to help you become a better trader. I tell you want I see and I live or die by my output.
I'm not always 100% accurate. But I do believe the markets are going to move into a type fo Flash-Crash event over the next 45+ days and I believe the best way to prepare for this event is to load up on dry powder, trade smaller amounts for now, then look for opportunities near the bottom.
Get some.
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$SPY September 9, 2024AMEX:SPY September 9, 2024
15 Minutes.
AS expected, AMEX:SPY being under all moving averages in 15 minutes kept on making lows for 2 days.
Now if we consider the fall 551.58 to 539.44 then 544-546 is a good level to short.
I will but only above 565 at the moment.
If we take the rise from 510 to 564 AMEX:SPY has retraced 50% of the move. Now holding 530 is important as it is the 61.8% retracement for the move.
536 looks a good target now as it is also 100 averages in daily time frame.
The oscillator in 15 minutes is making lower low along with price.
200 averages in 15 minutes are around 553 levels.
So, at the moment downtrend in 15 minutes.
Wonder if history repeats itself?Just going to leave this here to see if the bear wedge can play out in a similar fashion
Build Confidence with Heikin-Ashi Candle Patternow to Trade Using Heikin Ashi Candles on the NDX Chart
Heikin Ashi candles are a powerful tool for filtering out market noise and identifying trends more clearly than traditional candlesticks. By smoothing out price action, they allow traders to focus on the overall direction of the market, helping you make more informed trading decisions. Here’s a breakdown of how to use Heikin Ashi candles effectively, specifically on the NDX chart.
1. How to Read Heikin Ashi Candles
The primary difference between Heikin Ashi and traditional candlesticks is in how they are calculated. Heikin Ashi uses a modified formula that incorporates the open, close, high, and low prices of the previous candle, which results in a smoother appearance. This smoothing effect allows traders to more easily spot trends:
Bullish Trends: A series of green candles with no lower wicks typically indicates a strong uptrend. These are the times to consider long trades.
Bearish Trends: A series of red candles with no upper wicks signals a strong downtrend. These are great opportunities for short positions.
Consolidation: Mixed green and red candles with wicks on both ends often indicate consolidation or indecision in the market.
The Heikin Ashi chart reduces the noise from minor price fluctuations, allowing you to focus on the trend itself rather than the short-term volatility.
2. Entry and Exit Points
The beauty of Heikin Ashi candles lies in their ability to simplify entries and exits. Here’s how to use them:
Entry Points: You want to enter a trade when a new trend is confirmed. For a long position, wait for the first few green Heikin Ashi candles after a period of red ones, signaling a reversal to the upside. For a short position, look for a sequence of red candles after a bullish period has ended.
Exit Points: Exit your trade when you start seeing signs of reversal. For long trades, this would be the appearance of the first red Heikin Ashi candle after a series of green ones. For short trades, exit when the first green candle appears after a bearish sequence.
Waiting for these clear signals helps avoid premature exits and ensures that you’re riding the trend for as long as possible.
3. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Heikin Ashi works even better when combined with key support and resistance levels. On the NDX chart, identifying these levels provides context for your trades:
Support Levels: If the price is approaching a key support level, and you start to see bullish Heikin Ashi candles, it’s a potential buy signal.
Resistance Levels: If the price is approaching resistance and bearish Heikin Ashi candles begin forming, that could signal a good time to sell or short.
Using Heikin Ashi in conjunction with these levels increases the probability of success by ensuring you are trading within important zones where price action tends to react.
By mastering the use of Heikin Ashi candles and combining them with support and resistance, you can significantly improve your ability to spot and act on high-probability trading opportunities, especially on volatile instruments like NDX.
SPY: Week of Sept 9thHaven't updated in a hot minute.
These are my thoughts for next week, not advice!
SPYLOVERS ! The Pullback is here ! What to do next.... Good morning everyone and welcome to another weekend session. For those following the SPY, we can see that the institutional rejection did indeed occur with a double top, and it was unable to break the Al Time High (ATH), leading to a pullback that we had already predicted weeks ago.
The question is: How far will the pullback go?
I have two levels: a liquidation zone limit and a historical demand zone.
Warning: DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE !
The idea here is to let the price do what it needs to with this drop. Once it reaches one of these two zones, we will start to see bullish volumetric candles indicating the beginning of an upward trend.
For now, this analysis has been unfolding as we have been forecasting the movement. Let the price fall, and be very alert to determine whether this is just a small pullback or a longer one. We already know where the price will likely land.
Sending greetings and thank you for supporting my study.
The Recession Debate: SPY ETF on the Rise Despite ConcernsIn recent months, there has been a growing conversation about the possibility of an impending recession. Economic indicators, inflation rates, and geopolitical tensions have led many to speculate about a downturn. However, amidst this chatter, one notable trend stands out: the SPY ETF, which tracks the S&P 500, is on the rise.
While analysts and economists discuss potential challenges ahead, the performance of the SPY ETF suggests a different narrative. Investors seem to be showing resilience and confidence in the market, as reflected in the upward trajectory of this popular exchange-traded fund.
What does this mean for investors? It could indicate that the market is pricing in a recovery or that certain sectors are performing well despite broader economic concerns. It’s essential to remember that markets can be forward-looking, often reacting to future expectations rather than current realities.
As we navigate these uncertain times, it’s crucial to stay informed and consider both the macroeconomic landscape and individual investment strategies. The rise of the SPY ETF may serve as a reminder that opportunities can still exist, even when the economic outlook appears bleak.
What are your thoughts on the current market trends? Are you optimistic or cautious about the future? Let’s discuss! AMEX:SPY
Back to 564 to test the high as resistence or breakthroughSetting up on the last bit of support before breaking through that, or a reversal to fully form what I still suspect to be reverse H&S.
SPY My Opinion! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the SPY next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 540.43
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 552.17
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
SPY: End of Correction Wave$515 -520 is not out of the question. At this stage we'll have made just about 10% correction. Technically, it's possible to continue but I think this market overall is strong, and we may likely continue with the overall trend upward.
I'd consider compiling your favorite companies and preparing buy orders.
Best of luck!
SPY: Bullish Continuation
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to buy SPY.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Major Correction for SPX SPX had completed its 5 progressive wave from its 2023 low and potential undergoing ABC correction.
Recent ISM Manufacturing date hint of contractionary while employment data fans of recessionary fears .
This could be a deeper market corrections
VDY Seems to be uselessVDY seems to heavily outperform spy, and thus not be a useful tool. even with the tax rebate
Vol expansion signaling the top is near, but $HYG disagreesThrough my previous "big picture" posts about VIX/VVIX and VIX as well as high yield corporate bonds ( AMEX:HYG or AMEX:JNK respectively) I have been maintaining we're in that end stage of a bull market, but for now to "keep buying the dip."
Things are getting a little shakier lately, but I still feel like new highs can be made based solely on how AMEX:HYG is still behaving.
We have higher lows and lower highs starting on VIX, which is usually a good indicator we're near the cycle top. AMEX:HYG is not far off setting a new high from this cycle, though. Highest it's been since the big sell off started in 2022. AMEX:HYG never recovered its 2021 levels.
So, solely based on past performance of how AMEX:HYG often sets lower highs preceding a longer term bear market in equities, I'm going to stick my neck out and say despite the economic data supporting slowing and VIX starting to set alarm bells in its pattern, we're not quite yet to the top.
Equities kind of have the appearance of having done a double top and might continue down according to how some interpret candlestick patterns, but the unusual strength of AMEX:HYG gives me pause and say "maybe buy the dip isn't dead just yet."
Make no mistake, though, we are certainly much closer to a market cycle top than we are the bottom. And tech has been getting battered pretty solidly. I just think the price action of the main indices themselves may yet set new highs before we do finally enter a longer term bear market. It absolutely is time to be on your toes. Things are shifting underneath us.
But my bold prediction is that buy the dip for AMEX:SPY SP:SPX isn't dead just yet. Bulls may have another rally or two left in them to hit another all time high before bears totally take over. I do think some larger players have already begun shifting out of equities and into treasuries, once that settles down a little, we'll see stocks make maybe one or two more big pushes, take a look at what AMEX:HYG is doing during that time and go from there.
With that said, I have no prediction for how far and deep the current dip will go. September has a history of being one of the uglier months of the year. I had thought that yesterday might be the low of the current dip with AMEX:HYG showing two decent days of bullish divergence, but then we got smacked lower still today after a rebound from yesterday's lows.
The market has a way of humbling you for sure! But if you're just long term long $SPY/ SP:SPX , I say stay there for now. I think we might have some more highs to set yet--but not many more before a big drawdown does happen.
SPY H&S correction.Long!
H&S with a reverse shoulder down to the trendline then LONG to All time highs.
SPY 30-Minute Chart Analysis: Bearish Channel FormingLooking at the SPY 30-minute chart, the price is clearly in a bearish channel, with each rally getting rejected and lower lows being made consistently. Let me walk you through the key details.
What’s Happening:
Downward Channel: The price is following a downward-sloping channel, which began forming at the peak near $563. Since then, the price has been steadily declining, with lower highs and lower lows, bouncing off the upper and lower trendlines.
Resistance at $546.70: There was a strong rejection from the $546.70 level, further confirming this area as a key resistance. Every time the price approaches this level, sellers step in aggressively.
Key Support at $539.60: We’re currently hovering just above this level. If we break through $539.60, the next key support zone lies around $528.44, which could be the next target for sellers.
What I Expect:
Bearish Continuation: Given the strength of the downward channel, I’m expecting more downside. If $539.60 fails to hold, we could see a further drop towards the $528.44 level.
Possible Bounce: On the other hand, if the price finds support around $539.60, we might see a short-term bounce back toward the upper trendline, around $546.70, before more selling pressure sets in.
Final Thoughts:
Right now, SPY is clearly in a downtrend, and I’m watching the $539.60 level closely. A break below it could open the door for further declines, but a bounce from here could present a short-term trading opportunity. Stay cautious as the bearish momentum continues!
SPY 5-Minute Chart Analysis Targeting Opening Range BreakoutLooking at the SPY 5-minute chart, we’re seeing some clear bearish signals after what seemed like a potential recovery. Let me walk you through the main things that stand out.
What I’m Seeing:
Resistance at $554.41: The price reached a high of $554.41 but failed to hold, showing clear rejection at this level. This resistance has become a key point, as each attempt to break above it has been met with selling pressure.
Drop to $541.77: We’re now seeing a sharp decline, with the price currently sitting around $541.77. This steep drop indicates that the sellers have firmly taken control.
Failed Support at $548: Earlier, $548 was providing some support, but once that level broke, it led to a cascade of selling down to the $541 - $542 zone.
What I Expect:
Further Downside: Given the current momentum, I wouldn’t be surprised if we test the $540.97 level soon. If this level breaks, we could see a deeper drop, potentially targeting the $540 psychological level or even lower.
Potential Bounce: If buyers step in around this $541 zone, we might see a short-term bounce. But unless we reclaim $548, I’m not convinced that a reversal is coming.
My Takeaway: Right now, the price action is heavily favouring the bears. The failed break above $554 and the sharp drop tell me to stay cautious. If I were trading, I’d lean towards short positions unless we see a strong reversal above $548.
Let’s see how it unfolds!
SPY is forming a strong downward trendSPY is forming clear downward trend showing more selling to come.
Sold off with momentum and increasing volume indicating strength in the move
We are in the beginning of September which is normally a bad month
We should expect selling to continue
SPY is in the midst of a sell off. Best right now to wait for signs that selling has slowed and starting to reverse course before entering any bullish positions.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-6 : Blended Top/Flat-DownHappy Friday.
I believe today's pattern is a blend of yesterday's Top-Resistance and today's Flat-Down pattern.
Because of this belief, I think we will see a moderate rally in early trading leading to a peak in price, then followed by a moderate flat-down type of price trend.
This week has proven to be a bit more volatile than I expected, but it has not changed my expectations much in terms of where I believe the markets are headed over the next 90+ days.
Price is dynamic and reflects not only fundamental economic expectations but also future performance expectations.
This pullback in price is somewhat healthy (closing the gap) on the SPY chart to clear the way for further upward trending.
Let's see how things play out today.
Get some.
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Main Focus List REview 9-6-24 RTHgoing over our Main focus list RTH only looking for setups and potential trades for swings. dont be lazy do all your work every day. the price for success needs to be paid every day and that price changes daily. make sure you're putting in the work. you have to love the Pain. smile at the Pain. Live in the Pain. that's the formula for growth and ultimately success.
$SPY Tomorrow's Trading Range in SPY 9.6.24 All right, guys, tomorrow we have the unemployment rate in premarket, as well as the hourly wages report. As of now, we're right in the gap that opened when the consumer spending data was released last month, sitting at the 50-day moving average . Momentum from premarket reports will be huge.
Directly above us, we have the 35 EMA, which has been resistance for the entire week—that's the red line just above where we opened. If we get above that, the first level of resistance is around 554, which we've tested twice earlier this week. The top of the implied move is at 556, with Monday's contract at 558, and at the very top of the implied move for the next two days, we have the 30-minute 200 average. We’re on this timeframe, so consider that as a key resistance point.
At the very top, completely above our trading range for tomorrow, is the gap we started the week with, which pushed us away from all-time highs. To the downside, we have the one-hour 200 moving average, which we bounced on today. Beneath that lies the rest of the consumer spending gap. The bottom of the implied move for tomorrow is 543, and for Monday’s contract, it's 541. Underneath all of that, we have the four-hour moving average.
Let me know how you plan on playing this. Good luck, and see you guys on Sunday night.
