Flash Crash to $490?War with Iran and market finally pricing in low growth can have a nice flash effect to $490.
I also think the higher probability trade would be a dead cat bounce or reversal, as peak fear enters.
SPY trade ideas
SPY recent rally failed to make new highsLooking back at the last two major rallies we see that the latest one has not broken above to new highs. Raises concerns of longer term rallies less likely to happen
SPY is forming double top reversal pattern
Longer term future rallies called into question
More defensive sectors are experiencing rallies over the past year (XLU for example)
Defensive sector long term rallies shows rotational shift from risk assets (tech) to safer assets (utilities, healthcare, gold)
Seeing signs of late cycle investing
2025 could be a rough year for SPY and especially tech
Bullish purchases should be done with caution
Reversal H&S could break the 565The upside-down H&S warrants a continued push higher. Technically based it is waiting on more news to confirm upside.
Double-Top In PlayAs expected, SPY double-top looks to be playing out. I don't expect us to drop much lower than the pink ascending trendline. Maybe we'll touch that 200 dma before our full send. Let me remind you that the pink ascending tl is the neckline of a large cup and handle pattern on the bi-weekly, the target of which remains 650-700. This is still in play on the longer timeframe and as long as we don't break below the pink tl with confirmation on the weekly, I will start to buy back at or around the pink tl and down to the 200 dma. Batting 1000% thus far and hoping to keep it perfect.
Oops SPY Bear dance might have just begun.We are seeing some really impulsive moves coming up and at this point it really important to trade with the trend. A complete analysis coming in soon.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-5 : Top-Resistance PatternToday's Top Resistance pattern should reflect a moderate price rally, leading to a peak in price, then followed by a roll-over in price before the close of trading today.
Follow my research. Remember we are using my SPY cycle patterns to help guide our future and current trades related to price action.
These patterns are not 100% accurate all the time - but I find them very helpful in understanding how to prepare/trade related to potential future price swings.
Again, outside news events, central banks/governments, wars and other massive events can disrupt these patterns for 3 to 10+ days. But, price always seems to return to the patterns over time. These disruptions are temporary.
Get ready for next week's big rally phase.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
spy on a pullbackI see 543.60 coming up to the anchored vwap and then possibly a push up. If it continues down look out to the golden pocket seen on the chart.
$SPY 50DMA is the level we're trying to holdThe 50Day MA is the level we are trying to hold. We saw a bounce there to end the day yesterday, and a bounce there today when we dropped at open. The momentum there is not strong, look at the angle of the 50DMA. Sideways here as we try to defend it??
09/03 SPY ATR and levels. ATR Is up to 8.26 a significant increase over the month percentage wise.
Waiting until after 10am for anything.
Jolts report will move the needle.
We seem to be a bit sideways before open. Makes me think we'll gap up into the report, and if it's good, pull back hard, and then go higher.
Key Regions defined by MenthorQ Pro to watch todayGamma flow and call/put wall data from the amazing guys at MenthorQ
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-4 : CRUSH Blends Into Rev-RallyYesterday's price move was clearly a CRUSH pattern I expected on Monday. Because of the holiday trading schedule this week, I believe the CRUSH pattern blended into Tuesday's trading - resulting in today's pattern being a blend of the Rev-Rally pattern on Tuesday and the Up-Down-Up pattern for Wednesday.
Overall, I believe the CRUSH pattern removed a lot of downward price pressure and set the markets up for a bigger upward move starting on September 9-11.
At this point, I believe the US markets will attempt to find a base/support and transition into the end of this week by "looking for support—then rallying away from support."
So, I expect the US markets to find a critical support level today or tomorrow, then begin to form a base and rally away from that support level.
Let's play what is in front of us on the charts and Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY September 4, 2024AMEX:SPY September 4, 2024
15 Minutes
AMEX:SPY opened gap down.
Since close was not good in that bar buy was not possible.
I did not short for the day.
I need AMEX:SPY below moving averages 9,21 to short.
That came only around 556 levels with 559 as SL.
So, i was not sure of R:R hence no short.
Now for the day the rise from 518 to 564 has 546 -547 as 38.2% retracement.
It is also 200 averages in 60 minutes.
So, 546-548 is the next target.
Already achieved 549.5 yesterday.
Hence for the fall 564.2 to 549.5 a retrace around 556 - 558 will be a good placed to short today.
Having seen multiple tops near 564 levels i will go long only above 565 levels.
No long today as AMEX:SPY below all moving averages in 15 minutes.
$SPY - Say it isn't soAMEX:SPY We could be looking at a double top. I hope it doesn’t turn into a full-blown double top and reverses before breaking below the confirmation point.
A complete double top would be disastrous, and I’ll post the drop target when we cross that bridge. Let’s hope, for the market's sake, that it isn’t one of them.
Watch the $544 critical support area for a reversal. If it fails, we’re looking at the $523 to $512 area.
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I’m not suggesting anyone follow my trades. You do you.
SPY indicating more selling to comeSPY Today pulled back much further than anticipated after the volume price exhaustion on Friday close. We have now broken below key support and into bearish territory
A pullback was expected today due to volume spike on friday close during a rally
Sell off proved to be more severe and broke below key support
Final trading period gave strong hammer candle with high volume
Hammer candle indicates reversal from downward trend
Due to firm break out I expect a bounce up to new resistance line followed by more selling off.
Originally thought we were experiencing pullback in time from SPY with it trading flat. It appears now that it was a longer term distribution phase before selling occurs.
SPY: Doom and gloomLooks like we are at long term resistance. it is getting rejected multiple times.
We already reached 1.61 level, we might retrace back 50% to $455 or $413.
Look at the negative divergence in long term RSI, that's bearish.
Any new ATH can be shorted I guess.
As rates are coming down, we might make one more ATH and then we might retrace back to the support in the upcoming recession.
New ATH is in the cards, but not written.
Trading is better than investing as of now.
If long term support breaks, I guess that's going to trigger a atleast 30% draw down from the peak. We still have time for that I guess.
Cheers
AMEX:SPY
SPY: Reversing the Trend? |D&H charts analysis|Daily Chart (Left Side)
On the daily chart, SPY has experienced a sharp decline after failing to sustain its upward momentum near the resistance level of $565.16. This pullback has brought the price back below the support level at $554.86, which previously acted as a resistance and support area.
The 21-day EMA, which had been providing support, has now been breached, indicating a potential shift in momentum. The next significant support level is at $544.96, highlighted by the red line on the chart. This level corresponds with the previous open gap on teh daily chart. Remember, gaps work as magnets when the trend reverses. A break below this level could lead to further downside toward the $510.75 level, which is the next major support.
1-Hour Chart (Right Side)
On the 1-hour chart, SPY has been in a downtrend after a failed breakout attempt above the $563.17 resistance level.
The price action shows a clear breakdown from the support at $554.86, which had been tested multiple times before giving way. The downward momentum is evident as the price is making lower highs and lower lows. The next support level to watch is the $544.96 area, which aligns with the daily chart's significant support.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: $554.86 (previous support, now resistance), $565.16 (major resistance on the daily chart).
Support: $544.96 (critical support on both daily and hourly charts), $510.75 (major support on the daily chart).
Summary
SPY is showing signs of bearish momentum after a failed breakout attempt and a breach of key support levels. The 21-day EMA has been breached, signaling a potential shift in trend. The price is currently testing the $552 level on the hourly chart, with the next significant support at $544.96. If this support fails to hold, SPY could see a further decline toward the $510.75 level.
Could SPY reject tihs bearish thesis? Yes, but it would need to make a clear bottom sign as soon as possible, and for now, we don't see any.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
Is this the Beginning of the Flip? Just KiddingFrom what we can see it appears that we are just at the beginning of a bear move here and that might be quite an aggressive move. pay attention to the $550 level here and if we stay at that or below it, we should a steep curve to the bears in the next few days here.
SPY 545 retestSPY 545.00 floor needs to hold if not we go below 540.00 possibly.
If it does hold I think we bounce hard and see ATH.
SPY 10-Minute Chart Analysis - September 3, 2024AMEX:SPY The SPY has been trading in a well-defined range over the past few sessions, bouncing between support and resistance levels like a pinball. Right now, we’re seeing a key moment where SPY is testing the lower boundary of its trading range.
Current Setup:
Resistance Zone: The upper boundary around 5,641 has consistently acted as a ceiling for SPY. Every time the price reaches this level, it gets knocked back down, indicating strong selling pressure.
Support Zone: On the other end, the support around 5,560 has held up well, with buyers stepping in to defend this level each time it’s been tested. SPY is currently hovering just above this support zone, which could be a critical area to watch.
What’s Happening Now:
SPY is testing the lower end of the range, around 5,573.91, after a sharp drop from the resistance. The price is attempting to bounce, but the question is whether this support will hold, or if we’re looking at a potential breakdown.
Key Levels to Watch:
Break Above: If SPY can gather enough momentum to push back towards the 5,641 resistance and break through it, we could see a significant move to the upside. This would signal that buyers have regained control.
Break Below: On the flip side, if SPY fails to hold above the 5,560 support, we might see a more extended decline, potentially opening the door to lower levels.
Summary: SPY is at a crucial juncture. The battle between buyers and sellers is heating up as the price hovers near the lower support of the range. Traders should keep a close eye on these levels, as a break in either direction could dictate the next significant move for SPY. Stay alert and be ready to act depending on how the market reacts in the coming sessions.
SPY Weekly Analysis Sept 2Fibonacci is all that is needed for SPY. Here I have drawn overlapping Fibonacci's from the monthly and weekly perspective. If price were to continue up, breaking the previous all time high, price would continue up to the next Fibonacci level of 579. Typically, when price breaks out to make a new level, it could continue up to test as far at the -50% Fibonacci level of 600.
With the expectation of the FOMC reducing interest rates this month, the move to 600, is possible if you are able to hold your position.
Keep in mind that there is a support gap from 549 to 543, so at some point price may come down to retest this level.
Why ORB and VWAP Have a High Success Rate - Part 2Previously in the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP). In Part 1, we dove into the basics and all the important aspects of the ORB, but now let's explore why these strategies often lead to high win rates.
The Psychology Behind ORB
The ORB is powerful because it captures the market's initial reaction to overnight news and pre-market sentiment. Think of it like the opening scene of a movie: it sets the tone for what’s to come. When the market breaks above or below this range, it’s like the plot thickening—traders jump in, driving momentum in that direction. This momentum is often self-reinforcing, leading to sustained moves that traders can capitalize on.
VWAP: The Institutional Trader’s Compass
VWAP, on the other hand, is not just another line on the chart. It's the line in the sand for many institutional traders. It represents the average price weighted by volume, and it’s where big players often aim to execute their trades to ensure they’re getting a fair deal. When the price is above VWAP, it’s a sign of strength; below, it signals weakness. This makes VWAP an anchor point for many strategies, creating natural support and resistance levels.
The Power of Combining ORB and VWAP
Now, let’s bring it all together. When you combine ORB and VWAP, you’re essentially stacking two powerful tools that capture both the early market sentiment and the equilibrium price level that institutional traders care about. For instance, if the price breaks out of the opening range and stays above VWAP, it’s like a green light signalling that the bulls are in control. On the other hand, if the price breaks down and stays below VWAP, the bears likely have the upper hand.
The chart you're seeing is a perfect example of this dynamic. Notice how the price respects the VWAP and reacts strongly around the opening range levels. These reactions are not random—they’re the market’s way of telling us where the big players are positioning themselves.
To Recap All These
The high success rate of ORB and VWAP strategies isn’t just about the numbers; it’s about understanding market psychology and where the big money is flowing. By incorporating these tools into your trading, you’re aligning yourself with the natural rhythm of the market, increasing your chances of being on the winning side of the trade.
This combination gives traders a structured approach to navigate the chaos of the markets, and when used consistently, it can lead to more reliable and profitable trades.
Tech Booms Versus Emerging MarketsWhen capitalism nearly died in 2008, major stock market indices experienced >50% drawdowns from all-time highs. After unprecedented interventions by the Federal Reserve — and a historic surge in government debt to GDP — tech, growth, and the S&P 500 have seen stellar returns. (QQQ, VUG, & SPY respectively above).
On the other hand — small caps (VB), value (VTV), real estate (VNQ), developed markets (VEA), and emerging markets (IEMG) — have significantly underperformed. Tech companies have become more valuable than most countries’ GDP. Recently, the total market cap for top tech companies has surpassed $14T.
Will the tech boom continue upwards or is it time for small caps plus value to mean revert to a fair historical share of the total market? Tech also leads dominance for the U.S. versus other developed and emerging markets. More recently, the divergence is especially striking in percent returns and drawdown visualizations since 2020.
