10% correction then Up Only continuesstandard bull market support retrace here.
could be 15% if macro events are negative.
SPY trade ideas
Outbreak3 days ago we broke out of the 2 weeks old trading range. I had expected a correction after the outbreak but non has happened so far. Thus I expect the index to rise further now even if there is stil la chance of a backtest of the top of the range.
SPY STILL A BUY!!!Hopefully you added on the drop this morning, we were severely oversold on all timeframes under 4 hours. I added heavily and dumped most my position at $547 will look for a reentry tomorrow I believe we will test $555 then go down or test $555 and break out to new highs but we did hold the 50 DMA without closing under and the drop seemed over extended. Calls or selling puts until we see how we react to the .618 FIB at $555 ish
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-25 : Temp-Bottom UpdateGood afternoon everyone,
Today's Temp-Bottom pattern played out perfectly after what I'm calling the Kamala-Shakeout on 7/24.
The SPY price is struggling to find support near the 2x StdDev lower channel and appears to have bounced higher into a new short/intermediate-term Bullish price trend.
If you've been following my research, you already know how powerful and accurate my SPY Cycle Patterns are and how they do not take into account news, politics, or other outside crisis events. They are psychologically reflective of Fibonacci/Gann price cycles/structures—nothing else.
I believe the SPY will attempt to squeeze higher into the close today, setting up another bottom-reversal pattern tomorrow (a counter-trend Top Reversal). The Counter-trend type suggests the pattern will be inverted.
If my analysis is correct, we'll see the SPY move into a more solid Bullish price trend by tomorrow and then continue to try to break above the $560 level again.
Here we go...
Get some
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY on weekly stays the course LONGSPY on the weekly chart is up 25% in the past six months. This is beyond its historical norms
even during a presidential election year. While there has been some volatility in both directions
the climb is consistent and persistent. The indicators serve to document this. The predictive
algo predicts more of the same. A price cut when the fed gets around to it will serve to sustain
the trend. Lack of it through the summer may cause a fade of momentum. Make hay while the
sun shines.
Where will this market pullback stop? (SPY)I have been traveling and enjoying the summer months, which typically are slow for trading, and have not traded this pullback but have gotten many questions for analysis as to "when will this stop ". #notfinancialadvice but I like the upcoming levels on AMEX:SPY in the 520 area.
There are several levels of support creating confluence here:
What I always remind folks is that "in any given year, the stock market has 2 to 3 >-5% corrections. As of writing the pullback from the high is only 4.4%. Pulling into the 520's would put the move in -6% territory and qualify as a "healthy" pullback.
There is a major Volume Profile level at 529 from back in May where I presume so much volume was "sold in May"
The prior All Time High from April is at 524.
The Daily Ichimoku cloud, which has very well contained the trend since November 2023, exists in this area and time to provide dynamic support.
Trade (and invest) wisely!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-25 - Deep Low Bottom (Gap Fill) This is a rather long video (about 23 minutes) - but I wanted to go over the unique situation presented to us with what I'm calling the "Kamala Shakeout" related to yesterday's deep selling trend.
This video is very clear. We are still in a technical Bearish trend, and I've highlighted the levels needed to switch to a Bullish trend.
Today's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Temp-Bottom. I'm expecting the SPY to attempt to identify support and roll upward - starting a price reversion that may see the price move above $555 over the next 2~5+ days.
But, right now, I'm more concerned with early morning selling pressure trying to fill the GAP Window from early June.
Remember, I'm trying to suggest a pattern reaction (a Temp-Bottom pattern) while highlighting the KEY Ultimate382 levels as confirmation levels for Bullish or Bearish trending.
Yesterday's big selling move was, in my opinion, related to unknowns focused on Kamala Harris' run for POTUS. I believe the markets were waiting for any catalyst related to the uncertainties of a Harris Presidency, and those concerns were reflected in the selling pressure we saw yesterday.
Here we go.
Get some
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Chart is slef explanatorywe are at trend support , so expecting a bounce here if the trendline holds
SPY What Next? SELL!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for SPY is below:
The market is trading on 554.68 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 546.76
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Be ready buy the dip soon all new highs coming All new highs in SMH QQQ SPY XLF coming get ready
IWM will test 245 not sure new highs possibly
Why the rally well every Tom Dick Harry will buy the crap of NVDA AVGO ECT
Even me not yet We all been waiting on this pull back I like see lower
Feel good noise rate cuts Trumps gonna win More lies on inflation jobs ect
This rally will be massive and go into election then IMHO its done
how high I say SPY 600
Like see test 50 day MA hold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade - 7-24 : Review & The Kamala ShakeoutAfter a long drive and trying to get through LA, I wanted to discuss what I believe is taking place in the US/Global markets. What I call the "Kamala Shakeout".
Over the past few weeks, there has been much news related to Trump/Biden and the potential election consequences.
But all of those expectations changed because of two rather large events..
_ the assassination attempt on Trump
_ Biden's withdrawal from the race - resulting in Kamala Harris's rise.
Now, I believe the markets are starting to digest the amount and scale of uncertainty related to a new POTUS candidate (with almost no knowledge of her policies, plans, and expectations) and the outcome in November (only 90+ days away).
IMO, what we are seeing right now is actual FEAR related to the unknown factors centered around Kamala Harris.
I believe voters and businesses already had expectations related to Biden/Trump (either outcome) based on the past 8 years. Now, with Kamala Harris, who knows what the expectations are related to plans, policies, and expectations?
That is why the markets rolled as hard as they did today. The markets are pricing a new degree of uncertainty and will continue the Kamala Shakeout until the dust settles.
I'll fill you in with more details tomorrow morning.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY market top? 50%+ correction incoming?Contrary to what everyone believes is going to happen:
"We're going to see a new ATH by the end of 2024 then we decline after"
"There's no way they're going to let the market fall in an election year"
I think we're about to start a historic correction to retest the lows from covid.
Since October, price action has gone parabolic, and normally when parabolas break we see a large correction.
There's a lot of catalysts that can drive the market lower from here. High rates, other central banks cutting more aggressively than us, policy mistakes, election uncertainty, etc. for those that care about fundamentals.
However, my assessment of the chart is that we're at a market top here and we're going to start our decline lower in the near future.
I think this move is likely to happen in the timeframe that everyone thinks we'll see new highs in (so in the next 6-9 months).
If you're long, I think it's a good idea to hedge here and or set tight stops, because the move down will happen faster than most people think is possible, should it play out.
SPY BUY+++++ oversold!! Holding 50 dmaToday and yesterday were beyond frustrating. Yesterday my $550 puts did nothing and today my $550 calls went to crap. Way oversold on 4 hour and under charts this will bounce to $552.82 - $555 levels but likely 1 hour after my calls expire.
I am not sure the last time the SPY has lost $12 in a single day with no bounce!! We could easily have a + $8-10 day tomorrow or the next because this is way oversold and many will be caught short when it's time to go long
SPY BEARISH BREAKOUT|SHORT|
✅SPY was trading in a
Rising parallel channel
But now we are seeing a
Bearish breakout so after
A pullback we will be
Expecting a further
Move down
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Hey SPY Lovers we got a Pullback Target !This is my analysis of SPY on the daily chart.
I have a leg measurement in the two strong corrections that the price has been making. In the second leg, it replicates the first one. I also have a very important point that coincides with the first leg and connects with the second one. So, no matter how low we might see the market fall, the levels 531 and 532 are a point of interest for me for a possible pullback.
SPY Short to 520If you can plot and follow SPY, you can understand what the rest of the market may do. SPY has been overextended for quite some time, based on its trendline from the Covid lows of 2020. Please also note the bearish divergence on the MOMENTUM of SPY which is indicative of further downside.
1D/1W displaying bearish divergence on the momentum
While the growth has been good for quite some time, we are expecting a pullback and want all to be prepared.
I'm interested in the potential value areas for SPY at targets of 520 and 530 and as such a short to 520 looks like a good R:R with 2.65 to 1, basing the SL on the prior 1W open
Happy Trading!
SPY - we going sideways? Yearly chartSPY quickly approaching the 50-day MA on a yearly chart. Does it bounce off the 50 and continue higher? Doubt it but earnings season and election volatility is right around the corner, so anything can happen.
What SPY has not done in a while is trade sideways and my guess is that is what it does for the next few months. If it continues downward, next support is $520. After that it's the 200-day MA. I can see a bad earnings season taking us there.
Things I'm watching:
-SPY hasn't touched 50-day since April
-depending on your definition of sideways, SPY has not traded sideways since July 2023
-hasn't touched 200-day since November 2023 and still a quite a ways away from it.
SPY Short TargetSPY broke it's uptrend from April finally and even broke below the previous ATH around $550. We have some demand here on ES and NQ, but I'm not sure anything is going to hold if VX continues ripping. For now, I'm thinking we may bottom out soon, I think the $542 area is a good spot on SPY, it's not far.
If no quick recovery here, it's just going to get a lot worse.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade - SPY Seeking Support for Base/BottomHere is a quick video highlighting the News Event-driven price action today.
My SPY Cycle Patterns don't predict or operate off news cycles. They are based mostly on Fibonacci/Gann research/cycles.
Today's price action is a great example of when patterns fail to predict price trends accurately. But one has to understand that today's price movement is like throwing a huge rock into a tiny pond—it makes big waves.
That is how traders are interpreting the TSLA news today.
Even though the previous quarters were slightly worse than Q2:2024, traders anticipated any negative news that would push the markets downward (it appears).
My analysis has not changed. I'm looking at the price and thinking, "Boy, this is going to be an incredible bullish reversion setup for skilled traders."
In order words, when the selling pressure stalls/stops, prepare for a big rally above $556-557 on the SPY as a reversion move.
Earnings are sometimes challenging to trade through. Big news can throw some big price swings as data hits.
Buckle up. It will be interesting to see how the price reacts through this week's and next week's end.
Based on my SPY Cycle Patterns, I'm still preparing for a bullish rally phase.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
07/24 SPY ATR Levels and RangeSPY ATR 4.81 this has maintained this area and average for the last week.
Fear and Greed indicator is at 54, a little higher than the neutral that we ended the week on last week.
Still a lot of uncertainty in the world, foreign administration speaking today.
9:45 we got a couple market moving reports, Positive Impact (PMI > 50): Negative Impact (PMI < 50) for the past few months weve been over the 50s.
We need to hold the 548 level for sure for a bounce of any kind.
If we can't hold that, then we move to 547.90/546.90 area as low as 545.15 zone
If we can defend 548 area than we move back through the 548 area with a lot of sideways action in that range zone and wrestle with the mid 550/551/20 area.
nothing is set in stone, and anything can happen. These are just using previous areas we have visited in the past since we are well below all-time highs.
SPY play for the day
AMEX:SPY
Morning looking for the pressure on spy to stay in tact. I love puts below $547.90 I will take $545 puts for Friday
IF WE PUSH UP I LIKE SPY CALLS ABOVE $549.10 I WILL TAKE FRIDAY 7/26 $552 CALLS
SPY Channel breakdown , US ETFchannel breakdown 550 below 548/542 can test soon
555 will be max upside where seller will try for aggressive sell
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-24 - Harami~Temp BottomGood morning all,
Boy, my friendly group of traders was reviewing the TSLA and GOOG data last night for any signs of weakness or strength.
The earnings data did not settle well with traders, and the markets were a bit lower this morning. But, simultaneously, I'm trying to tell my followers to let the dust settle after yesterday's data.
I was taught "it is a market of stocks - not a stock market". Don't think of it as a single unit - it is multiple (thousands) of stocks competing for your investment dollar.
And, as I'm still reading the data, I believe the US stock market is healthy and efficient in terms of earning power and future expectations.
Because of my expectations, I'm urging my followers to consider something somewhat unique. Today's SPY Cycle Patterns should be a Harami pattern, but tomorrow's is a Temp-Bottom.
I suspect the Temp-Bottom pattern may blend in with the Harami pattern today - setting up a very clean type of double-bottom or price base for the SPY/QQQ.
My data suggests we are moving into a reflation/recovery phase (higher), but the news/data (earnings) has shifted price action to the downside. The base/bottom is playing out today and tomorrow as the price attempts to find/bounce off support.
We'll see how today plays out. Please pay attention to my warning related to today's downward price trends. There is a lower gap that could get filled on a deeper downward price trend - but I'm looking for new or recent lows to set up a Base/bottom today. Then, I expect solid reflation/upward price trending over the next 5~10+ trading days.
